Copa America: Canada vs Venezuela - Friday, July 5th - 9pm Eastern / 6pm Pacific - Arlington, Texas

[Stryker911]

Osorio can not take a penalty. I don't know what his overall record was, but he missed many important ones for TFC in their playoff runs.

[Cadeau]

16 minutes ago, Stryker911 said:

Osorio can not take a penalty. I don't know what his overall record was, but he missed many important ones for TFC in their playoff runs.

True Osorio can’t take a penalty. I saw Kamal Miller score one with authority in the US open cup last year with Miami 

[jonovision]

How is it still 12 hours until kickoff?

 

My best guess at Marsch's XI (call it a 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1)

Crepeau

Johnston - Bombito - Cornelius - Davies

Laryea - Eustaquio - Osorio - Millar

David - Larin

Edited July 5 by jonovision

[InglewoodJack]

If this goes to penalties, and if we win, I think there’s a good chance it will have, I hope we find a way to get Tani out there. We won’t do it, but make our final sub to put David as a winger and get Tani and Larin up front. PKs to David-Davies-Larin-Tani-Cornelius. Or something. 

[TGAA_Star]

3 minutes ago, InglewoodJack said:

If this goes to penalties, and if we win, I think there’s a good chance it will have, I hope we find a way to get Tani out there. We won’t do it, but make our final sub to put David as a winger and get Tani and Larin up front. PKs to David-Davies-Larin-Tani-Cornelius. Or something. 

My list of takers slightly different than yours with mine looking like this:

 

1- Davies

2- Eustaquio 

3- David

4- Johnston 

5- Larin

[MtlMario]

Before Copa started we would be all happy with a Venezuela matchup. 

Crystal call says

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Can 2

 

 

 

 

 

Ven 1

[scullion44]

Can we get Vitoria somehow and sub him on at the 90th if it’s a tie game?

[InglewoodJack]

43 minutes ago, scullion44 said:

Can we get Vitoria somehow and sub him on at the 90th if it’s a tie game?

Borjan won Red Star the title off a PK two seasons ago too. Maybe both crash through the stadium ceiling at the 90th minute like it’s Monday night raw

[Sal333]

1 hour ago, InglewoodJack said:

If this goes to penalties, and if we win, I think there’s a good chance it will have, I hope we find a way to get Tani out there. We won’t do it, but make our final sub to put David as a winger and get Tani and Larin up front. PKs to David-Davies-Larin-Tani-Cornelius. Or something. 

Tani has impressed me with the little playing time he has received. He scored a goal that was called back and stole the ball off an opponent and went one-on-one on the keeper. I'm almost tempted to play him instead of Larin.

[El Diego]

Since we're talking a little bit about PK theory, I'll take this as a moment to hijack the thread. I remember hearing from some commentators/writers that the 4th round of PKs is the hardest (they are converted the least) so you should put your best shooter there. I think their idea was that there is something about the 4th round (late pressure?) that makes it harder. This didn't seem intuitive to me, my immediate thought was that teams were putting their worst shooter 4th and therefore the scoring rate was in line with their historical rate.

Another known finding was that teams shooting first were more likely to win the shootout. I can't recall the exact numbers. It wasn't a huge difference but it was a consistent one. The other known finding was that clinching shots were scored at a higher rate, while must makes shots were scored at a lower rate.

With that in mind I decided to make my own data. I used PK shootouts from the UEFA Champions League proper, Europa League (and its previous iterations), and World Cup to get over 500 shots (I thought I had more, maybe I do in a different file version somewhere idk). Anyway, there were some things I found that were consistent with the general stuff I researched with one peculiarity.

The consistent thing I found was that clinching shots, defined as scoring it wins the shootout, are scored at a higher rate (0.85) compared to all shots (0.72). Must makes, defined as missing it loses the shootout, are scored at a lower rate (0.67). I wanted to see if "semi-must makes" are scored at a different rate as well. I defined these as shots that if missed immediately give the other team a clinching shot. They are made at a normal rate (0.72). All other shots are also scored at the normal rate (0.72).

Here's the peculiarity. I did find that the 4th round is scored at a lower rate than normal. Here are the rates by round (I have data past round 5 but the sample sizes get lower):

1. 0.75

2. 0.75

3. 0.72

4. 0.65

5. 0.70

On the one hand this makes sense when you consider the known findings -- must make shots are harder to score, and teams that go second lose more often. Therefore, teams shooting second in the 4th round are likely converting less often as they are more likely to be facing must make shots. Except the lower rate of conversion in the 4th round is driven wholly by the team shooting first in the 4th round. Rather than breaking it down simply by round, here is the breakdown by shooter order in general (i.e. 1 is first shooter from Team A, 2 is first shooter from Team B, 3 is first shooter from Team A etc.)

1. 0.73 (Team A1)

2. 0.77 (Team B2)

3. 0.77 (Team A2)

4. 0.70 (Team B2)

5. 0.74 (Team A3)

6. 0.71 (Team B3)

7. 0.60 (Team A4)

8. 0.71 (Team B4)

9. 0.71 (Team A5)

10. 0.68 (Team B5)

What's going on here? No idea. Maybe it's sample size. Maybe the 4th round effect is spurious. I still don't think it's right that the 4th round is magically harder, especially when you consider that it is Team A that is missing the most in round 4. I do believe that clinch/must make is a factor. I will up frontly admit I have not done any actual statistical analysis beyond naked looking at the numbers.

One other thing I was curious about was whether there was a relationship with how good (or experienced) you are as a taker and how successful you were in a shootout. I don't think this had any obvious effect, but again I was just eyeballing the results. For example, I divided up players into rough categories of success/experience based on their PK stats from in game PKs: Never shooter (literally never took one in game), Bad (under 0.70), Average (0.70 - 0.79), Good (0.80 - 0.85), and Great (0.85+). Here are their conversion rates in shootouts:
 

Never: 0.70

Bad: 0.80

Average: 0.73

Good: 0.67

Great: 0.73

There are a lot of interactions I would be interested in, but it's a lot of stuff to sift through and make sure you have your data correct. I would love a larger sample size, but as you go further back in time the data gets less trustworthy. For example, I wanted to see if misses were due to 'saves' versus 'off target' and the relationship that may have to 'must makes', but some of the data was straight up wrong so I had to watch videos of shootouts to correct it. This made me question a lot of that data.

There has been more talk recently about length of time a player takes in run up and also length in time a coach takes in giving instruction. These are interesting and could be a good explanation, and also a good avenue for coaches in gaining in advantage. I haven't looked into it much myself, but I am hesitant in a lot of conclusions these journalists jump to, mostly based on sample size.

My hypothesis based on anecdotal experience and personal bias? The goalkeeper is far and away the largest factor in determining success.

[The Real Marc]

While no Argentina, the need to win makes this possibly our toughest match. I just don't know where the goals come from. Tajon out hurts.  I think this could be 2-0 or 3-1 Venezuela, with the third goal potted on a counter after we attack wildly in the last minutes.

[InglewoodJack]

51 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

Tani has impressed me with the little playing time he has received. He scored a goal that was called back and stole the ball off an opponent and went one-on-one on the keeper. I'm almost tempted to play him instead of Larin.

Just a player who seems a step ahead of everyone regardless of the level he’s playing by at. He’s so exciting to watch, and I think the stage is too big to tinker with the lineup, but I think he’s going to be a big player for us soon. Excited to see how the second half of his season goes with Minnesota.

[Obinna]

Going to predict a 0-0 or 1-1 draw at full time, then a nervy shootout win for the good guys 🍁

[MtlMario]

5 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Going to predict a 0-0 or 1-1 draw at full time, then a nervy shootout win for the good guys 🍁

.....but but you liked my crystal ball prediction☹️

[JBR]

Predicting an out-of-character 2-0 win for La Vino Tim Hortons

[Unnamed Trialist]

5 hours ago, Stryker911 said:

Osorio can not take a penalty. I don't know what his overall record was, but he missed many important ones for TFC in their playoff runs.

We gladly watched him miss in a Voyageurs Cup final at BC Place not long ago.

[kingvikingstad]

41 minutes ago, The Real Marc said:

While no Argentina, the need to win makes this possibly our toughest match. I just don't know where the goals come from. Tajon out hurts.  I think this could be 2-0 or 3-1 Venezuela, with the third goal potted on a counter after we attack wildly in the last minutes.

Really? I'm not saying you're wrong but I don't think I've read or seen anything that would make me believe they're that much better than us. 

If we were in CONMEBOL qualifying, we'd be looking at Venezuela as a must win game, and they'd probably be thinking the same about us. As would Chile, Peru, and Paraguay (Bolivia being a tier below). My point being, I think there's parity across these teams, and while the red cards make it difficult to prognosticate based on our previous results, we werent outclassed by Peru or Chile to a point where I could put us as two goal underdogs.

[Cadeau]

I'm going to say the good guys burst out of their scoring funk and win 3-1 tonight.

[cornerkick]

For what it’s worth, betting odds have shifted in favour of Canada.  They are now slight favourites for the match.

[EJsens1]

God what an opportunity this game is tonight..

-winning and advancing being the obvious one

-guaranteeing 2 more games which will allow us to gain so much more experience playing 8 games in just over a month

-another match with the defending World Cup champions and then no matter what happens in that game, barring a huge upset by Panama, playing one of Brazil, Uruguay or Colombia too

-the financial gains which are so desperately needed 

-the world wide recognition this will have and hopefully trickle down effect for better friendlies moving forward

-the confidence gained heading into a home World Cup in ‘26

I’m sure I’m missing a few more but this is just so huge outside of the game itself. Will be a tough game. Starting to feel the stress already 

[The Real Marc]

32 minutes ago, kingvikingstad said:

Really? I'm not saying you're wrong but I don't think I've read or seen anything that would make me believe they're that much better than us. 

If we were in CONMEBOL qualifying, we'd be looking at Venezuela as a must win game, and they'd probably be thinking the same about us. As would Chile, Peru, and Paraguay (Bolivia being a tier below). My point being, I think there's parity across these teams, and while the red cards make it difficult to prognosticate based on our previous results, we werent outclassed by Peru or Chile to a point where I could put us as two goal underdogs.

They don't have to be miles better than us to win. They have to take their chances and have the flow of the game to go their way. They have the wind in their sails and we have been solid but not amazing against two very meh teams  both down a player.

I don't think they are a class above us on an individual basis but as a team they've scored six goals, including three against a team that beat us to get here. I think we're fairly evenly matched but our need to score will give them opportunities. Not a rocket science assessment, just a feeling. Hope to be wrong!

[narduch]

11 minutes ago, EJsens1 said:

God what an opportunity this game is tonight..

-winning and advancing being the obvious one

-guaranteeing 2 more games which will allow us to gain so much more experience playing 8 games in just over a month

-another match with the defending World Cup champions and then no matter what happens in that game, barring a huge upset by Panama, playing one of Brazil, Uruguay or Colombia too

-the financial gains which are so desperately needed 

-the world wide recognition this will have and hopefully trickle down effect for better friendlies moving forward

-the confidence gained heading into a home World Cup in ‘26

I’m sure I’m missing a few more but this is just so huge outside of the game itself. Will be a tough game. Starting to feel the stress already 

Better transfers for our players

[Joe MacCarthy]

 

[A.D.I.D.A.S.]

1 hour ago, Obinna said:

Going to predict a 0-0 or 1-1 draw at full time, then a nervy shootout win for the good guys 🍁

I freaking hate penalties. A win in 90 minutes please!

 

[Bigandy]

17 minutes ago, The Real Marc said:

They don't have to be miles better than us to win. They have to take their chances and have the flow of the game to go their way. They have the wind in their sails and we have been solid but not amazing against two very meh teams  both down a player.

I don't think they are a class above us on an individual basis but as a team they've scored six goals, including three against a team that beat us to get here. I think we're fairly evenly matched but our need to score will give them opportunities. Not a rocket science assessment, just a feeling. Hope to be wrong!

This is the most boring and negative way to be a fan. 
 

No team has to outclass,  they just need to take their chances. Same for Canada. That’s not a justifiable argument as to why they may win. 
 

Venezuela had help because of a red card, then played an absolutely horrible Mexico and Jamaica. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. 
 

looking at canadas games, we did exactly what we needed to. We managed games well. We managed bad turf and extreme heat.  It’s tournament play which means it’s about results over performance.  Look at the euros. Almost every big team (except Spain) has played pretty poorly. They all got the job done though.