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Copa America: Canada vs Venezuela - Friday, July 5th - 9pm Eastern / 6pm Pacific - Arlington, Texas


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Thinking about our lack of goal scoring, I think it has an explanation. 

Basically we have not had any leeway to open up and put goal scoring as a priority. In the first three matches, friendlies and Argentina, we assumed we'd be on our back foot. Even then, we got chances. Some even nicer that what we saw after. 

Then, by Perú, it was a must point game, and really a must-win situation. We had to keep the defensive shape and not lose. And then, vs. Chile, the same scenario came upon us, we couldn't lose. 

I think that a single match in a knockout round is a different kind of game, and especially against a team we are not on-paper inferior to. I suspect we are going to see our offence doing far more. I realize that strictly speaking we could also play for a draw then penalties, meaning we'd be alive still with a draw. But I somehow think that we'll play with less fear and less having to watch a group table or worry about goal difference.

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1 hour ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Thinking about our lack of goal scoring, I think it has an explanation. 

Basically we have not had any leeway to open up and put goal scoring as a priority. In the first three matches, friendlies and Argentina, we assumed we'd be on our back foot. Even then, we got chances. Some even nicer that what we saw after. 

Then, by Perú, it was a must point game, and really a must-win situation. We had to keep the defensive shape and not lose. And then, vs. Chile, the same scenario came upon us, we couldn't lose. 

I think that a single match in a knockout round is a different kind of game, and especially against a team we are not on-paper inferior to. I suspect we are going to see our offence doing far more. I realize that strictly speaking we could also play for a draw then penalties, meaning we'd be alive still with a draw. But I somehow think that we'll play with less fear and less having to watch a group table or worry about goal difference.

Everything you say is valid, and I also think that in the quarter-final, we will be 'playing with house money' as the saying goes, so I agree that there will be less pressure, but I also think that the lack of goals since Marsch took over is also in part down to just simple bad luck. Sometimes the breaks go your way (France today vs Belgium, or Hutchinson vs. El Salvador for an extreme example) and sometimes they don't. The one goal we scored under Marsch was a clinical finish on a breakaway, but have we had any good fortune around the opposition net since he took over? No, we have not. That doesn't mean we magically get some luck vs. Venezuela, there is no 'law of averages' when it comes to this sort of thing But it does mean, that if we keep generating chances at the rate we have been doing (a little over 1xg/game against top class opposition), then goals will come, maybe not next game (although that would certainly be a good time for it), but eventually.

Edited by 74 Whitecap
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1 hour ago, InglewoodJack said:

This is the first game in the Marsch era against a team that should be on par with ours, everyone else, we’ve been a clear underdog. Will be interesting to see how we hang. This should be a winnable game, but Venezuela is on a tear.  

Yeah their players have been great this whole tournament and I see why in 2026 qualifying they are 4th in their own confederation's qualifying. Yeah Canada 🇨🇦 cannot afford to underestimate this team.

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2 hours ago, InglewoodJack said:

This is the first game in the Marsch era against a team that should be on par with ours, everyone else, we’ve been a clear underdog. Will be interesting to see how we hang. This should be a winnable game, but Venezuela is on a tear.  

Really depends on the measuring stick.  If we base ourselves on ELO, we weren't underdogs vs Chile nor Peru.  We are underdogs vs Venezuela.  

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Not trying to be tone-deaf to what happened to Tajon, and recognizing the spot for detailed discussion of his situation is in the player thread, so this is just intended to discuss the game impacts of what happened.   

While Tajon played well against Chile and may have potentially earned back a starting spot I think we have enough quality wide players to be okay against Venezuela.  Liam at LW, Davies at LW, Richie and RW and Alistair at RW would be solid - and probably on par with (or close to) any other combined personnel/formation.   

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3 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

Liam at LW, Davies at LW, Richie and RW and Alistair at RW would be solid - and probably on par with (or close to) any other combined personnel/formation.   

I think we set up with those guys on the left and right, with Shaffelburg as a speed merchant sub, Choiniere as a flank mid sub for defensive purposes to hold a lead (like he did vs T&T), maybe Ahmed comes in on the left as an attacking option because I think he is better there in an inverted role than on his natural right foot.  Next man up mentality here.

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15 minutes ago, Canucklehead69 said:

Probably going to be the same as the last two games 90 mins of war and the dark arts.

 

Venezuela is riding pretty high. Tough but winnable for sure

 

Sucks about Tajon also as he finally looked good last game

Yeah he might have been starting for all we know. Certainly would have been a sub.

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3 hours ago, costarg said:

Really depends on the measuring stick.  If we base ourselves on ELO, we weren't underdogs vs Chile nor Peru.  We are underdogs vs Venezuela.  

Don’t think I’ve ever seen a crazier FIFA/ELO discrepancy than them. I think they’re #54 FIFA ranked team but #21 ELO. Crazy. They’ve been on a heater though.

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42 minutes ago, scullion44 said:

I’m seeing 2.60 odds for Venezuela, 3.10 draw, and 2.90 for us. I’d have thought Venezuela would be slightly bigger favourites.

I think this seems about right.

The 'home field advantge' is going to be calmer in this match - still will be a ton of Venezuelan fans but per Seatgeek looks like 25-30% of the stadium is still unsold and then there's a whole host of people trying to dump tickets as well so will be a bit more cavernous in there than we've seen so far.  Also indoors so climate won't be an issue.

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@Olympique_de_Marseille

 

I must admit that this match looks like one of the most exciting of the tournament. Canada and Venezuela are emerging nations in soccer. Venezuela was called the Cinderella of South America, and its evolution has been slow and we have just seen how it has borne good fruit, with the under 20 teams and now with the help of the new technical director Batista. Baseball is already being caught up by soccer as a national sport.

Canada and Venezuela have a fresh, offensive game, and both are thirsty to make more history.

They tied 17 and 24 years ago 2-2 and 1-1 in Venezuela and it is time for the moment of truth.

I have followed the Canadian national team for years; I was even at the Pedro Marrero Stadium in Havana in 2012 supporting the Canucks and I enjoyed that Occean goal.

Next Friday, July 5, will be one of the few games that I will enjoy without the pressure of wanting a specific team to win. Let's make history and may the best win.


(By the way, getting off topic a little, I still have the Canada jersey that I wore in 2012. As you can see, it is very old. I wanted to buy the new official jersey at https://www.canadasoccerstore.com but they only ship to Canada. I live in Panama, but I am traveling to Miami in 2 weeks. Do you know if it is possible to find the Canada Soccer Jersey in Florida?)

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1 hour ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

@xabuep2 , the Vinotinto have already won the music game.

 

Where's Drake at? :(

Now this is video everywhere

"Soterdo" in allusion to the player Yeferson Soteldo, but in a joking way they make fun of a lady who pronounces his name wrong: with "R" instead of "L", that usually happens a lot in the eastern Venezuelan states, there he comes out dancing with the uniform of the Toronto F.C.

 

 

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