CONCACAF Nations League 2024-25 - Group Stage & ¼finals - General Thread

[Mihairokov]

4 minutes ago, CanadaFan123 said:

Nicaragua actually has an impressive venue. Better than most countries in this region. 

Highlights:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wc8DBGWu71E

It's everything a footy venue should be. Clean pitch, packed stadium, fans within an arms-reach of touchlines. Blake's save on the overhead at 88' is insane lol

 

[CanadaFan123]

40 minutes ago, Mihairokov said:

Highlights:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wc8DBGWu71E

It's everything a footy venue should be. Clean pitch, packed stadium, fans within an arms-reach of touchlines. Blake's save on the overhead at 88' is insane lol

 

Meh that was a save he should make all day but he was impressive as always. 
 

Looked like the first Jamaica goal was a foul on the defender and also funny to see Romario Williams steal that goal - very close to offside. 

[Corazon]

1 hour ago, CanadaFan123 said:

Nicaragua actually has an impressive venue. Better than most countries in this region. 

Agreed. It looked fantastic and looked like it provided an incredible atmosphere.

Edited October 11 by Corazon

[Corazon]

1 hour ago, CanadaFan123 said:

Meh that was a save he should make all day but he was impressive as always. 
 

Looked like the first Jamaica goal was a foul on the defender and also funny to see Romario Williams steal that goal - very close to offside. 

Agree that I think it should have been a foul on the first goal.  Think the second goal is clean though.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

1 hour ago, CanadaFan123 said:

Nicaragua actually has an impressive venue. Better than most countries in this region. 

1 hour ago, Mihairokov said:

It's everything a footy venue should be. Clean pitch, packed stadium, fans within an arms-reach of touchlines. 

5 minutes ago, Corazon said:

Agreed. It looked fantastic and looked like it provided an incredible atmosphere.

Nicaragua 🇳🇮 is traditionally a baseball country but that stadium and atmosphere look awesome. I'd love to see Canada play there.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

19 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

Nicaragua 🇳🇮 is traditionally a baseball country but that stadium and atmosphere look awesome. I'd love to see Canada play there.

Not even 17 000 but it sounded full!

 

 

[ahmedou]

14 hours ago, JamboAl said:

It’s all about the results.  There are no easy away games in CONCACAF.

Concacaf Word Cup Qualifications gonna be more difficult than ever. With the emergence of some Concacaf national teams. Theres's more underdogs.

There's no big teams or small teams in Concacaf away games. Every national teams has the chance to win. 

The only easy games are against Concacaf small national teams (islands, etc). Any lineup composed by CSN members can beat Concacaf small national teams (islands, etc), no disrespect.

When I say Concacaf small national teams (islands, etc) it's the likes of: U.S Virgin Islands/Dominica/Saint Kitts and Nevis/French Guiana/Barbados /Bermuda/Cayman Islands/ Aruba/ Suriname/ Martinique/Etc.

[Neil R.]

Here are the League A standings heading into the final matchday. The top 2 in each group advance to the quarter-final. The final match for each country is in brackets.

Group A

Guatemala 7 (Away at Costa Rica)
Costa Rica 5 (Home vs. Guatemala)
Suriname 4 (Home vs. Guyana)
Martinique 4 (Home vs. Guadeloupe)
Guadeloupe 3 (Away at Martinique)
Guyana 1 (Away at Suriname)

Group B

Jamaica 7 (Home vs. Honduras)
Honduras 6 (Away at Jamaica)
Nicaragua 4 (Home vs. French Guiana)
Cuba 3 (Away at Trinidad and Tobago)
Trinidad and Tobago 2 (Home vs. Cuba)
French Guiana 1 (Away at Nicaragua)

With their 1-1 draw in Suriname, Costa Rica is in a bit of a precarious position. They could still win the group, but they could also not finish in the top 2. If they draw Guatemala on the final matchday and Suriname defeats Guyana again (Suriname won 3-1 in September), Costa Rica wouldn't make the quarter-final.

In Group B, I'm hoping Jamaica wins at home over Honduras. If that happens and Nicaragua defeats French Guiana, Honduras wouldn't advance. Assuming we stay 2nd in the CONCACAF rankings and get the runner-up with the highest point total, I wouldn't mind if that's how it played out - Jamaica wins their group (we avoid them in the quarter-final) and Honduras misses out. Best of both worlds, no? 😉

[Obinna]

So with one match remaining in the Nations League Group Stage....

Jamaica is on 7 points, Honduras is on 6, and Nicaragua is on 4 points.

The other group has Guatemala on 7 Costa Rica on 5, and Suriname on 4.

Jamaica Honduras play each other in Kingston, Costa Rica Guatemala play in San Jose, which should be intriguing.

Meanwhile, Nicaragua and Suriname both host the bottom dwellers of their respective groups. Assuming both get maximum points ...

Jamaica/Honduras draw could push Honduras down to 3rd and knock them out, but their GD will probably help them keep 2nd. However, GD won't save them if they lose to Jamaica. It would be the end of the road and Nicaragua would be the runner up.

A Honduras win away in Jamaica could theoretically knock Jamaica out all together, pushing them down to 3rd, but their GD right now is decent enough for that to probably be unlikely.

My prediction:

Jamaica 10 pts

Nicaragua 7 pts

Honduras 6 pts

In the other group, Costa Rica must win. A draw would put them on 6 points and Suriname will overtake them. Guatemala could lose and still go through depending on how much Suriname beat Guyana by. 

My prediction:

Costa Rica 8 pts

Guatemala 7 pts 

Suriname 7 pts

Rankings unseeded teams:

1. Jamaica

2. Costa Rica

3. Guatemala 

4. Nicaragua 

As we've discussed, Canada is ranked 2nd currently for seeded teams and would face Guatemala if things play out as I expect.

This would be a good match up for us. Nicaragua would be better, but I would take Guatemala for sure.

Edit: made a mistake on the first go around.

Edited October 12 by Obinna

[Watchmen]

8 minutes ago, Neil R. said:

Here are the League A standings heading into the final matchday. The top 2 in each group advance to the quarter-final. The final match for each country is in brackets.

Group A

Guatemala 7 (Away at Costa Rica)
Costa Rica 5 (Home vs. Guatemala)
Suriname 4 (Home vs. Guyana)
Martinique 4 (Home vs. Guadeloupe)
Guadeloupe 3 (Away at Martinique)
Guyana 1 (Away at Suriname)

Group B

Jamaica 7 (Home vs. Honduras)
Honduras 6 (Away at Jamaica)
Nicaragua 4 (Home vs. French Guiana)
Cuba 3 (Away at Trinidad and Tobago)
Trinidad and Tobago 2 (Home vs. Cuba)
French Guiana 1 (Away at Nicaragua)

With their 1-1 draw in Suriname, Costa Rica is in a bit of a precarious position. They could still win the group, but they could also not finish in the top 2. If they draw Guatemala on the final matchday and Suriname defeats Guyana again (Suriname won 3-1 in September), Costa Rica wouldn't make the quarter-final.

In Group B, I'm hoping Jamaica wins at home over Honduras. If that happens and Nicaragua defeats French Guiana, Honduras wouldn't advance. Assuming we stay 2nd in the CONCACAF rankings and get the runner-up with the highest point total, I wouldn't mind if that's how it played out - Jamaica wins their group (we avoid them in the quarter-final) and Honduras misses out. Best of both worlds, no? 😉

Guatemala/Suriname/Nicaragua (plus Jamaica) in the quarterfinals would certainly be a nice way to mix up the NL and get some new matchups.

[maplebanana]

3 hours ago, ahmedou said:

Concacaf Word Cup Qualifications gonna be more difficult than ever. With the emergence of some Concacaf national teams. Theres's more underdogs.

There's no big teams or small teams in Concacaf away games. Every national teams has the chance to win. 

The only easy games are against Concacaf small national teams (islands, etc). Any lineup composed by CSN members can beat Concacaf small national teams (islands, etc), no disrespect.

When I say Concacaf small national teams (islands, etc) it's the likes of: U.S Virgin Islands/Dominica/Saint Kitts and Nevis/French Guiana/Barbados /Bermuda/Cayman Islands/ Aruba/ Suriname/ Martinique/Etc.

With respect, qualifying in 2030 will be easier simply because there will be way more slots (6?)

And I would not overlook SKN, FG, Suriname and Martinique. All can surprise. Several others you listed here are true minnows, but a team like Suriname could surprise. And apparently, we are their most hated team. 

[Unnamed Trialist]

I was seeing the young Leeds United striker Mateo Joseph, who plays for Spain u21, is eligible for Antigua and Barbuda as it's his father's roots.

Also could play for England, turns out his father is related to Emile Heskey.

Another player with multiple nationalities who came through the Espanyol system. 

 

[Mihairokov]

6 hours ago, maplebanana said:

And I would not overlook SKN, FG, Suriname and Martinique. All can surprise. Several others you listed here are true minnows, but a team like Suriname could surprise. And apparently, we are their most hated team. 

Martinique and Guyane don't enter WCQ because they're French overseas territories and not FIFA members. Unless you're simply speaking broadly. 

 

8 hours ago, Neil R. said:

With their 1-1 draw in Suriname, Costa Rica is in a bit of a precarious position. They could still win the group, but they could also not finish in the top 2. If they draw Guatemala on the final matchday and Suriname defeats Guyana again (Suriname won 3-1 in September), Costa Rica wouldn't make the quarter-final.

It would be interesting for the sake of having the QFs matchups be a little different but I have to reiterate that I hate this swiss format for League A. At least with UEFA Champions League the pots and opponents are explained but here they really seem happenstance and arbitrary. Some teams do genuinely get punished whilst others do not. Concacaf should have shifted to a League D setup or altered League A so it isn't so lopsided as it is. 

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

15 hours ago, Obinna said:

In the other group, Costa Rica must win. A draw would put them on 6 points and Suriname will overtake them. Guatemala could lose and still go through depending on how much Suriname beat Guyana by. 

My prediction:

Costa Rica 8 pts

Guatemala 7 pts 

Suriname 7 pts

Rankings unseeded teams:

1. Jamaica

2. Costa Rica

3. Guatemala 

4. Nicaragua 

What are the tie-breakers?

https://www.concacaf.com/nations-league/regulations/ [Page 24 and 25]

For teams that don't face each other, or for comparing two teams from different groups, the way I understand it is:

• Goal difference 

• Goals scored

• Away goals

• Disciplinary 

 

So @Obinna, for your prediction to happen, Suriname needs to win by only 1 goal (and not more) and Guatemala need to lose by only one goal (and not more)

As soon as Suriname win by 2 goals, things become more complicated. For example, if Costa Rica beat Guatemala 1-0 and Suriname beat Guyana 2-0, both Suriname and Guatemala would be on +3 goal difference. Both would have 6 goals scored. Both would have 3 "away goals" scored so I think it would go to disciplinary.

This is why a 🇨🇷 4-3 🇬🇹  loss for Guatemala is much better than a 🇨🇷 1-0 🇬🇹 loss for Guatemala.

Edited Saturday at 09:05 PM by Olympique_de_Marseille

[Mihairokov]

There's also a scenario where Costa Rica and Guatemala draw, Suriname and Guyana draw, and Martinique beats Guadeloupe, meaning Martinique finish second in the group. 🙃

Edited Saturday at 02:24 PM by Mihairokov

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

1 hour ago, Mihairokov said:

There's also a scenario where Costa Rica and Guatemala draw, Suriname and Guyana draw, and Martinique beats Guadeloupe, meaning Martinique finish second in the group. 🙃

True. But in this scenario I think we are less likely to face Martinique as their goal difference is worse. They'd have to win against Guadeloupe by 3 or more goals I think. There's more of a chance Nicaragua, Honduras or Jamaica finishing on 7 points but with a better goal difference. This would mean that in most scenrios, Martinique would be the worst second place team and would face Mexico.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

On 9/30/2024 at 8:52 PM, maplebanana said:

Based on my model using my original coefficients, a win @ MEX nets them +25 pts. Winning both is +37 which would put them at 1811, which just clips us at 1806 if we win. A mexico/usa draw though would put them at 1797 though. 

So @maplebanana , what are the stakes for tonight? A win for the USA vs Panama and they go ~ +12 on points? What would they lose for a draw? A loss?

[Kent]

11 hours ago, Mihairokov said:

It would be interesting for the sake of having the QFs matchups be a little different but I have to reiterate that I hate this swiss format for League A.

It's really ridiculous. If you gave teams a choice between being seeded 2nd vs 3rd in this group stage, the correct answer is 3rd, and that's dumb.

Schedule for the 2nd seeded team, ranked hardest opponent to weakest - 1, 1, 3, 6
Schedule for the 3rd seeded team, ranked hardest opponent to weakest - 2, 4, 4, 6

So if we ignore home vs away, 2nd and 3rd have a game each against the bottom seed, so that cancels out. But then the rest of the games are all harder for the higher seed. I think the system is made to create the most even chances across all the teams, regardless of their skill level. It's not meant to be a fair competition. It's like Mario Kart giving blue shells to the player behind to try to keep it interesting.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

20 hours ago, Neil R. said:

Martinique 4 (Home vs. Guadeloupe)
Guadeloupe 3 (Away at Martinique)

11 hours ago, Mihairokov said:

There's also a scenario where Costa Rica and Guatemala draw, Suriname and Guyana draw, and Martinique beats Guadeloupe, meaning Martinique finish second in the group. 🙃

 

 

[blueseeka]

US leading 1-0 in 80' but all Panama pressure

[Floortom]

Unreal miss by Fajardo. Panama should have equalized there.

[maplebanana]

On 10/12/2024 at 8:34 AM, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

So @maplebanana , what are the stakes for tonight? A win for the USA vs Panama and they go ~ +12 on points? What would they lose for a draw? A loss?

I fell asleep at the wheel and missed this last night. But with the USA winning (+12.5), they should be sitting at 1786.5. Panama at 1743.5. Canada still at 1794.

Canada W/D/L: +12/-6/-23   ---> 1806/1788/1771
Panama L/D/W: -12/+6/+23 ---> 1731.5/1749.5/1766.5
USA W/D/L: +24.5/+7/-10.5 ---> 1811/1793.5/1776

So some takeaways: 

1) Even if we lose to Panama, we will finish ahead of them (1771 to 1766.5). So we have clinched at least 3rd.
2) We do not control our own destiny with regards to 2nd. A USA win puts them in 2nd.
3) We need to do 'one better' than the USA to stay ahead of them. If they lose, we draw. If they draw, we have to win.

*disclaimer: my entire model could be wrong. 😆

 

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

17 minutes ago, maplebanana said:

*disclaimer: my entire model could be wrong. 😆

Even if your model were off, it seems that the margin between Canada and the USA if both win on Tuesday would be enough that your statement "We do not control our own destiny with regards to 2nd" would almost certainly hold true.

1806 vs 1811 is a 5 point gap, enough to cover for error I'd think.

Besides, your model seemed more off when the matches ended in draws compared to win/loss.

Good work, thanks! 

Edited Sunday at 05:42 PM by Olympique_de_Marseille

[blueseeka]

This is a little confusing

[Obinna]

14 minutes ago, blueseeka said:

This is a little confusing

This will not please American fans I am sure. I will try and make sense of it.

Pulisic - reportedly showed up to camp tired. He's played a lot for Milan and Poch commented on it, pretty sure. 

Fossey/Steffan - both picked up knocks because they were doing bike work while the others were training. 

McKennie - didn't play against Panama but why is still a mystery. Maybe just fitness, maybe something else...

Pepi - Very odd but maybe PSV requested to get him back early 

 

The USA side were already weakened so this hampers them further, but it's really only Pulisic missing from last night's starters. Not sure how much it changes things. 

Edited Sunday at 06:51 PM by Obinna