CONCACAF Nations League 2024-25 - Group Stage & ¼finals - General Thread

[Watchmen]

Other than travel, it probably makes more sense for them to be in CONCACAF anyway.  They're more likely to be competitive vs the lower teams in the Caribbean than basically anyone in Europe.

[Alex]

7 hours ago, Watchmen said:

Other than travel, it probably makes more sense for them to be in CONCACAF anyway.  They're more likely to be competitive vs the lower teams in the Caribbean than basically anyone in Europe.

I could be wrong, but I read somewhere the only international flights into Nuuk are from Europe. 

[Mihairokov]

1 hour ago, Alex said:

I could be wrong, but I read somewhere the only international flights into Nuuk are from Europe. 

Typically the only way to get into Greenland is through Copenhagen. Sometimes Reykjavik if you time things well, but mostly through Copenhagen. And they don't run everyday! 😛

 I don't know what the setup will be but I wonder if there's an alternate universe out there somewhere where Greenland meet Concacaf opponents in the middle and play out of Newfoundland or something. I can't imagine them forcing St. Kitts or Anguilla to fly to Nuuk.

Edited May 16 by Mihairokov

[Alex]

Based on how they are doing league B and C this edition in a centralized location, Id say they will continue with this moving forward so to avoid that travel if Greenland is accepted. I would love to see it. Plus it gives San Marino another opportunity to play an official match against a beatable opponent lol. 

[Mihairokov]

9 minutes ago, Alex said:

Based on how they are doing league B and C this edition in a centralized location, Id say they will continue with this moving forward so to avoid that travel if Greenland is accepted. I would love to see it. Plus it gives San Marino another opportunity to play an official match against a beatable opponent lol. 

That makes a lot more sense. I wonder if El Salvador will host all of theirs or if they'll have to play away in Bonaire or St Vincent (i'm guessing Montserrat can't host three away teams at once!) 😋

Greenland tried to play friendlies against San Marino and Gibraltar in 2022 but UEFA denied them as it was outside of a FIFA window

Edited May 16 by Mihairokov

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

The schedule for the Group Stage (September & October) is out:

https://www.concacaf.com/nations-league/news/concacaf-announces-match-schedule-for-2024-25-concacaf-nations-league/

...but the big news for us in the announcement above, is that, unlike the previous edition that used the CONCACAF rankings from October 2023, this year's edition will not wait until October 2024; they will use the current CONCACAF rankings to seed the Top 4 teams, so we have already been seeded 4th!

This means that, for our November away & home matches, we have the hardest possible path to the Nations League Quarter-finals. We weren't given the chance to leapfrog Panama in the rankings. 

 

QF: Best-ranked seeded team (Mexico) vs Next second place (2A/2B)

QF: Second-ranked seeded team (United States) vs Best second place (2A/2B)

QF: Third-ranked seeded team (Panama) vs Next first place (1A/1B)

QF: Fourth-ranked seeded team (Canada) vs Best first place (1A/1B)

Edited May 23 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[Obinna]

9 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

The schedule for the Group Stage (September & October) is out:

https://www.concacaf.com/nations-league/news/concacaf-announces-match-schedule-for-2024-25-concacaf-nations-league/

...but the big news for us in the announcement above, is that, unlike the previous edition that used the CONCACAF rankings from October 2023, this year's edition will not wait until October 2024; they will use the current CONCACAF rankings to seed the Top 4 teams. So we have already been seeded 4th!

This means that, for our November away & home matches, we have the hardest possible path to the Nations League Quarter-finals. We weren't given the chance to leapfrog Panama in the rankings. 

 

QF: Best-ranked seeded team (Mexico) vs Next second place (2A/2B)

QF: Second-ranked seeded team (United States) vs Best second place (2A/2B)

QF: Third-ranked seeded team (Panama) vs Next first place (1A/1B)

QF: Fourth-ranked seeded team (Canada) vs Best first place (1A/1B)

Last time around we got the 2nd best team, which ended up being Jamaica, but I actually think Panama (who finished 1st overall) would have been the better match up for us, so we wound up with the hardest team in the end.

Goes to show that 3rd or 4th, it probably doesn't matter in the long run. 

This time around the field of challengers will basically be the same, except we swap Panama for Costa Rica, who I prefer to face over the Jamaicans.

[Obinna]

Also, it's moot now, but part of me thinks we'd have been better off going through the group stage, so that we can build momentum and confidence. The preliminary rounds of NL and WCQ really set the tone and foundation for our success last cycle, not to mention it gave us the leeway to build the depth a bit. 

Instead, we'll have friendlies which will hopefully be high profile. I would never say no to big friendly opponents, but they are non-competitive games, which we couldn't really afford to test our depth in (unless injuries force our hand).

[Watchmen]

19 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Also, it's moot now, but part of me thinks we'd have been better off going through the group stage, so that we can build momentum and confidence. The preliminary rounds of NL and WCQ really set the tone and foundation for our success last cycle, not to mention it gave us the leeway to build the depth a bit. 

Instead, we'll have friendlies which will hopefully be high profile. I would never say no to big friendly opponents, but they are non-competitive games, which we couldn't really afford to test our depth in (unless injuries force our hand).

That's why I always considered qualifying for the Copa to be the highest priority. Higher competition + meaningful games.

I don't think we need the preliminary rounds of the NL. Friendlies in the fall vs Mexico and the US won't be "friendlies" anymore, as I'd expect all sides to be out giving their all. And while we've all (or mostly all) been really happy with what Blue has done, the next thing on the list might be for him to figure out how we can host a quality friendly ourselves. 

[maplebanana]

One thing I like about facing minnows in qualification for CNL/WC/GC, beyond building chemistry it also gives us cap-tying opportunities for fringe/youth players. It's selfish and cynical, but if we want to try out Jebbo or the like, it's a lot easier to do this in the 60' of a game against Cayman Islands than take up a roster spot against Chile. 

[Obinna]

9 minutes ago, Watchmen said:

That's why I always considered qualifying for the Copa to be the highest priority. Higher competition + meaningful games.

I don't think we need the preliminary rounds of the NL. Friendlies in the fall vs Mexico and the US won't be "friendlies" anymore, as I'd expect all sides to be out giving their all. And while we've all (or mostly all) been really happy with what Blue has done, the next thing on the list might be for him to figure out how we can host a quality friendly ourselves. 

Hard to argue with that.

Ultimately I think getting some solid friendlies is the best for this team, and yes they are "friendlies" in all but name when it comes to Mexico (and definitely the USA, should that be announced), even though there is nothing techncially on the line.

if I am not mistaken, the October window might be challenging to arrange opponents due to UEFA, CONMEBOL, CAF and even AFC teams being in WCQ. I think we'd only have the teams knocked out of AFC qualifying to choose from, but that may just be the chance to test out our depth. We wouldn't have the cap tying implications, but it'd still be good to get new guys in and play teams outside of concacaf. 

[Neil R.]

The group stage has the exact same schedule format as last time. The team you play twice in your 4 matches is the team ranked closest to you (1st seed plays the 2nd seed twice, 3rd seed plays the 4th seed twice, 5th seed plays the 6th seed twice).

Here is the seeding from 1st-6th in each group and their 4 matches:

Group A - Costa Rica, Guatemala, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Suriname, Guyana
Group B - Jamaica, Honduras, Trinidad and Tobago, Cuba, Nicaragua, French Guiana

Top seed: Plays the 2nd seed twice, 4th seed once, 5th seed once
2nd seed: Plays the 1st seed twice, 3rd seed once, 6th seed once
3rd seed: Plays the 4th seed twice, 2nd seed once, 6th seed once
4th seed: Plays the 3rd seed twice, 1st seed once, 5th seed once
5th seed: Plays the 6th seed twice, 1st seed once, 4th seed once
6th seed: Plays the 5th seed twice, 2nd seed once, 3rd seed once

The 3rd seed in each group has a pretty nice schedule. 3 of your 4 matches are against a lower-ranked opponent (one of them being the 6th seed) and you don't have to play the top seed.

Being the 5th seed isn't so bad either. 3 of your 4 matches are against opponents in the bottom half (4th or lower), and you get to play the 6th seed twice. With Costa Rica/Guatemala and Jamaica/Honduras playing each other twice, if those ever ended up in draws, a lower-ranked team could find themselves in a very favourable position to advance.

[Kent]

1 hour ago, Neil R. said:

The group stage has the exact same schedule format as last time. The team you play twice in your 4 matches is the team ranked closest to you (1st seed plays the 2nd seed twice, 3rd seed plays the 4th seed twice, 5th seed plays the 6th seed twice).

Here is the seeding from 1st-6th in each group and their 4 matches:

Group A - Costa Rica, Guatemala, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Suriname, Guyana
Group B - Jamaica, Honduras, Trinidad and Tobago, Cuba, Nicaragua, French Guiana

Top seed: Plays the 2nd seed twice, 4th seed once, 5th seed once
2nd seed: Plays the 1st seed twice, 3rd seed once, 6th seed once
3rd seed: Plays the 4th seed twice, 2nd seed once, 6th seed once
4th seed: Plays the 3rd seed twice, 1st seed once, 5th seed once
5th seed: Plays the 6th seed twice, 1st seed once, 4th seed once
6th seed: Plays the 5th seed twice, 2nd seed once, 3rd seed once

The 3rd seed in each group has a pretty nice schedule. 3 of your 4 matches are against a lower-ranked opponent (one of them being the 6th seed) and you don't have to play the top seed.

Being the 5th seed isn't so bad either. 3 of your 4 matches are against opponents in the bottom half (4th or lower), and you get to play the 6th seed twice. With Costa Rica/Guatemala and Jamaica/Honduras playing each other twice, if those ever ended up in draws, a lower-ranked team could find themselves in a very favourable position to advance.

You've got me curious. Last time around the placings of the seeds were like this.

Group A
1, 6, 4, 2, 5, 3

Group B
2, 3, 5, 4, 1, 6

Interestingly enough, although it is a miniscule sample size, the top 3 in each group were different seeds (1, 6, and 4 in Group A, 2, 3, 5 in Group B). So early on in this format it doesn't lead us to believe there is a seed that is more favourable than the others, but it is worth noting that the teams that are paired up always finished in different halves of the table. Meaning, 1 and 2 didn't both finish in the top half in either group. Same goes for 3 and 4, or 5 and 6. It might be very unlikely for 1 and 2 to both move on, because they are canibalizing each other's points.

[Obinna]

It looks like the groups have been decided (maybe I missed that somewhere upthread?):

Group B:

Cuba has been getting better and Nicaragua will probably hold their own, so group B looks very intriguing. I do expect it to finish in that order, but T&T did surprise, so maybe they get back into the quarter finals again. With the Canadian-connections on that squad, I hope they beat out Honduras and keep them in the concacaf doldrums. 

Jamaica should top their group, again. After they claw and scrap at the Copa America, this should be relatively straight forward for them. 

Group A:

Seems the easier of the two groups....maybe?

Costa Rica should top this fairly easily, I assume. Guatamala have grown, but were disappointing last time, finishing 4th behind Panama, T&T, and Martinique, who they'll get to face again. Guadeloupe deserve respect and maybe they get to the QF this time after a good Gold Cup showing. I dislike the non-FIFA members so I wish for them to fail, but the fact is they do leverage a lot of French talent. 

Still waiting for Suriname to do something with the Dutch talent, but I have lost faith in them to make noise. 

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

1 hour ago, Obinna said:

It looks like the groups have been decided (maybe I missed that somewhere upthread?)

 

Ya, that was the draw on May 6th:

On 5/6/2024 at 6:36 PM, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

This is the YouTube link for the draw...

[Mihairokov]

2 hours ago, Obinna said:

Still waiting for Suriname to do something with the Dutch talent, but I have lost faith in them to make noise. 

Do we know if Guyana has picked up anyone new? I'm under the assumption that the increased finances of that country has led to a slightly stronger program. They were recently in Saudi Arabia for FIFA Series where they lost to Cabo Verde 1-0 and beat up on Cambodia 4-1. A bit of a wildcard in that group, IMO.

[Neil R.]

On 5/23/2024 at 9:46 PM, Kent said:

You've got me curious. Last time around the placings of the seeds were like this.

Group A
1, 6, 4, 2, 5, 3

Group B
2, 3, 5, 4, 1, 6

Interestingly enough, although it is a miniscule sample size, the top 3 in each group were different seeds (1, 6, and 4 in Group A, 2, 3, 5 in Group B). So early on in this format it doesn't lead us to believe there is a seed that is more favourable than the others, but it is worth noting that the teams that are paired up always finished in different halves of the table. Meaning, 1 and 2 didn't both finish in the top half in either group. Same goes for 3 and 4, or 5 and 6. It might be very unlikely for 1 and 2 to both move on, because they are canibalizing each other's points.

Neat. Thanks for looking that up.

Looking at those results, it's also interesting that in both groups:

- The top seed and the bottom seed were only 1 place apart in the final standings
- The same 3 seeds (1, 4, 6 and 2, 3, 5) either all finished in the top half of their group or the bottom half

[TGAA_Star]

On 5/24/2024 at 10:45 AM, Obinna said:

It looks like the groups have been decided (maybe I missed that somewhere upthread?):

Group B:

Cuba has been getting better and Nicaragua will probably hold their own, so group B looks very intriguing. I do expect it to finish in that order, but T&T did surprise, so maybe they get back into the quarter finals again. With the Canadian-connections on that squad, I hope they beat out Honduras and keep them in the concacaf doldrums. 

Jamaica should top their group, again. After they claw and scrap at the Copa America, this should be relatively straight forward for them. 

Group A:

Seems the easier of the two groups....maybe?

Costa Rica should top this fairly easily, I assume. Guatamala have grown, but were disappointing last time, finishing 4th behind Panama, T&T, and Martinique, who they'll get to face again. Guadeloupe deserve respect and maybe they get to the QF this time after a good Gold Cup showing. I dislike the non-FIFA members so I wish for them to fail, but the fact is they do leverage a lot of French talent. 

Still waiting for Suriname to do something with the Dutch talent, but I have lost faith in them to make noise. 

Jamaica 🇯🇲 should top the group easily but as far as who ends up runner up, a toss up between Honduras 🇭🇳 and Trinidad & Tobago 🇹🇹 but it will have to be Honduras for me. Trinidad and Tobago 🇹🇹 end up 3rd and Cuba 4th.

 

Costa Rica 🇨🇷 tops the group easy with Suriname 🇸🇷 being the team who I see finishing runner up and Guatemala 🇬🇹 3rd.

Martinique 🇲🇶 ends up 4th.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

@Neil R. & @Kent say:

Based on the format and the results of the previous edition, the 1st and 2nd seed are incredibly unlikely to end up ranked 1st and 2nd by the end of October because they will take points off of each other

@TGAA_Star says:

For Group B, fuck your analysis, my prediction is Jamaica finishes 1st and Honduras finishes 2nd. 😄

 

[TGAA_Star]

4 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

@Neil R. & @Kent say:

Based on the format and the results of the previous edition, the 1st and 2nd seed are incredibly unlikely to end up ranked 1st and 2nd by the end of October because they will take points off of each other

@TGAA_Star says:

For Group B, fuck your analysis, my prediction is Jamaica finishes 1st and Honduras finishes 2nd. 😄

 

Bro that's what I just said...Jamaica ends up in 1st and Honduras 2nd 🤣🤦🏿

[SoccMan]

I hate this redundant tournament . We have the Gold Cup already . Playing the same national teams over and over again is boring especially in a region like ours . Thank God they opened up the Copa America this time to CONCACAF countries . Moreover , with the two freindlies with Euro teams we can finally experience exhibition games against different national teams !

[Mihairokov]

If Jamaica gets the majority of points in their games versus Honduras it's possible T&T ends up ahead of Honduras due to winning more points over weaker opponents. I truly hate this format where they play an unbalanced schedule within the group. 

[Kent]

9 hours ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

@Neil R. & @Kent say:

Based on the format and the results of the previous edition, the 1st and 2nd seed are incredibly unlikely to end up ranked 1st and 2nd by the end of October because they will take points off of each other

@TGAA_Star says:

For Group B, fuck your analysis, my prediction is Jamaica finishes 1st and Honduras finishes 2nd. 😄

 

I found it funny too, but I am curious what happens if someone smarter than me runs a couple million simulations. I'm sure it's not impossible for the top 2 seeds to finish first and second, but I'm not sure exactly how unlikely it is. Looking at the schedule a bit closer, it looks like the games Jamaica and Honduras play against other teams, are all unique teams. So if they win all their games against the other teams, it means at least 1 loss for each of T&T, Cuba, Nicaragua, and French Guiana. So if the top seeds split their 2 games against each other, and win the others, then they would at least finish in a tie for first. It could be a 3 way tie or even a 4 way tie (the other 2 teams would have lost all 4 of their games).

[Obinna]

22 hours ago, SoccMan said:

I hate this redundant tournament . We have the Gold Cup already . Playing the same national teams over and over again is boring especially in a region like ours . Thank God they opened up the Copa America this time to CONCACAF countries . Moreover , with the two freindlies with Euro teams we can finally experience exhibition games against different national teams !

It's easy to hate in the context of Canada wanting to play big friendlies to prep for the World Cup.

Thing is, because of the UEFA nations league, it's not so simple as swapping our own nations league for friendlies. Who will we play? France and Netherlands? We are getting these games because there is no UEFA nations league. 

Like it or not, UEFA nations league has ruled out those nations for a significant part of the calendar.

We could have these guarenteed competitive games against the same old concacaf opponents (tiresome), or we can roll the dice and pray we can line up friendlies against decent non-European teams (risky).

Given our track record, I will "hold my nose" and take the concacaf nations league, rather than risk being stuck playing minnows from other confederations, or worse, not playing anyone. 

Edited May 27 by Obinna

[Kent]

And to add to that. I know most people aren't concerned with it, but Nations League helps out the entire confederation rather than just the top. Perhaps in the longer term more teams can up their level to varying degrees. Obviously some tiny nations are always going to be bad, but there is room for improvement with a lot of CONCACAF.

I like Nations League a lot. But I hate the current League A format. Bring back the group stage for all and get rid of the lopsided schedules.