CONCACAF Nations League 2024-25 - Group Stage & ¼finals - General Thread

[CanadaFan123]

Saw a Twitter exchange where a Honduran learned that they could avoid Canada and play Mexico if Suriname won by 3 goals tomorrow - they said they were praying for that. What a time to be alive.

[maplebanana]

1 hour ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

The night before the crucial Tuesday matchday update (assuming @maplebanana 's points model is correct and assuming I understood the tiebreakers correctly)

The matchups for November will be as follows
QF1: Panama vs Best first place (1A/1B) 
QF2: [USA or Canada] vs Next first place (1A/1B) 
QF3: [USA or Canada] vs Best second place (2A/2B) 
QF4: Mexico vs Next second place (2A/2B)

Given the above, of the twelve League A teams, we cannot face eight of them in the quarter-finals (same conclusion as @Neil R. )  :
Guyane française [didn't finish top two in Group B]
Cuba [didn't finish top two in Group B]
Trinidad and Tobago [didn't finish top two in Group B]
Nicaragua [didn't finish top two in Group B]
Guyana [cannot finish top two in Group A]
Guadeloupe [can only finish as high as "Next second place" as they would be worse than Honduras on points, so if they make qualify they would face Mexico]
Guatemala [can either finish "Best first place" with a win or a draw against Costa Rica, as they would be on 10 points with a win or on 8 points and +4 goal difference or better with a draw, which would put them above Jamaica, or, with a loss, they would find themselves below Honduras because they would be at best on 7 points and a +3 goal difference and Honduras is on 7 points and a +4 goal difference, so they would be at best the "Next second place" team; Guatemala can therefore theoretically only face Mexico or Panama if they advance]
Costa Rica [can either finish "Best first place" with a win as they will be on 8 points and +4 goal difference or better, and therefore ahead of Jamaica, or, they would finish below Honduras in points with a loss or a draw, so they would be at best the "Next second place" team; Costa Rica can therefore theoretically only face Mexico or Panama if they advance]

These are the four teams we can face:

Suriname (not super likely, but quite possible):
We will face them if
• We beat Panama and the USA draws or loses against Mexico
or
• We draw Panama and the USA loses against Mexico
 
AND Suriname would need to beat Guyana by at least 4 goals or by 3 goals (possibly 4-1, and definitely 5-2, 6-3, 7-4 or higher)
AND Martinique don't get an absurdly good result

Martinique (incredibly unlikely):
We will face them if
• We beat Panama and the USA draws or loses against Mexico
or
• We draw Panama and the USA loses against Mexico
 
AND Martinique would need to beat Guadeloupe by at least 5 goals
AND Suriname do not get the good result against Guyana mentioned above

Honduras:
We will face them if
• We beat Panama and the USA draws or loses against Mexico
• We draw Panama and the USA loses against Mexico
AND Suriname and Martinique don't get the results mentioned above

Jamaica:
We will face them if
• we lose against Panama
• the USA wins against Mexico
• the USA draws against Mexico and we draw against Panama

----------------
Gut probabilities for November:
78% chance we face Honduras or Jamaica
21.99% chance we face Suriname (I think there is a decent chance their Dutch talent saves them at home)
0.01% chance we face Martinique

Hot damn, this may be the greatest IF-THEN breakdown of scenarios I've ever seen in a CanSoc forum.

It would be an awful shame if all my calculations are wildly off, and then I'd have to recede back into the bushes.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

8 hours ago, maplebanana said:

Hot damn, this may be the greatest IF-THEN breakdown of scenarios I've ever seen in a CanSoc forum.

Thanks for the kind words, it means even more coming from a quality poster like yourself.

I did this breakdown out of self-interest and as a I writing it I came to the realization that I might as well write it up clearly and methodically so others would understand.

My reason for the breakdown is because I've got a week of vacation time in the bank and I'd like to go see the the #CanMNT down south. If the away game is in Martinique or Suriname I am almost certainly not going. If it's in Jamaica or Honduras I will try to go. I was priced out of the World Cup and Copa America but last time I saw the #CanMNT away was in Panama City in March 2022 and it was a great experience despite the loss.

8 hours ago, maplebanana said:

It would be an awful shame if all my calculations are wildly off, and then I'd have to recede back into the bushes.

Haha, you were very clear with your disclaimer about the ratings!  No blame falls on you

Edited Tuesday at 02:25 PM by Olympique_de_Marseille

[JamboAl]

I find away trips to be as fun, if not more fun, than home games.  Great experiences and get to meet some opposing supporters who are 99% friendly.  It is more expensive to do although for us who don’t live in Toronto, there’s a cost going to home games as well.

[MtlMario]

When will we know the date of our first away game? Hopefully it's not Nov.15 (I'm out of town☹️).

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

18 minutes ago, MtlMario said:

When will we know the date of our first away game? Hopefully it's not Nov.15 (I'm out of town☹️).

Sorry, almost certainly Nov 15th.

Likely the same format as last year.

Two quarterfinals will be Thursday-Monday and two will be Friday-Tuesday. Our home match is Tuesday.

[JamboAl]

It will 99.9% be on Nov 15th.  A few hardy Vs are already looking into flights to Tegucigalpa.  It’s a slog but at least it’s not Suriname.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

4 minutes ago, JamboAl said:

It will 99.9% be on Nov 15th.  A few hardy Vs are already looking into flights to Tegucigalpa.  It’s a slog but at least it’s not Suriname.

Suriname is more expensive than a flight to Europe and there doesn't seem to be much to do.

Martinique is quite nice but there is no cheap accommodation and I've already been there.

Never been to Jamaica.

Tegucigalpa would be interesting for me having seen Canada at San Pedro Sula. 

[eramosat]

9 hours ago, maplebanana said:

Hot damn, this may be the greatest IF-THEN breakdown of scenarios I've ever seen in a CanSoc forum.

It would be an awful shame if all my calculations are wildly off, and then I'd have to recede back into the bushes.

I am looking forward to some wild halftime updates!  Lol!!  A fun night for watching, to be sure.

[xabuep2]

If the rival is Honduras, the Hondurans will have two players suspended for accumulating cards for the first leg of the quarterfinals.

 

Honduras: las bajas que tendrá en cuartos de final de Nations League (laprensa.hn)

[ahmedou]

17 hours ago, Shway said:

So our home game at BMO has been announced for November. 

That means I need to stay to Toronto. From October 15th. To November 19th. That's the only way to not miss any Canada Soccer games in Toronto in 2024.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

30 minutes ago, xabuep2 said:

If the rival is Honduras, the Hondurans will have two players suspended for accumulating cards for the first leg of the quarterfinals.

 

Honduras: las bajas que tendrá en cuartos de final de Nations League (laprensa.hn)

I tweeted at that journalist; I think he is wrong. It would be incredibly unfair for Honduras to have suspended players given that the top 4 teams won't have any, as they didn't need to play in the competition in September and October.

 

 

 

[archer21]

1 hour ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

I tweeted at that journalist; I think he is wrong. It would be incredibly unfair for Honduras to have suspended players given that the top 4 teams won't have any, as they didn't need to play in the competition in September and October.

 

 

 

Have CONCACAF shown that they care about fairness in the past? 😂 

I’m guessing based on 23.12.4 and 23.12.6 that the players will be suspended.

Edited Tuesday at 06:32 PM by archer21

[Unnamed Trialist]

7 hours ago, JamboAl said:

I find away trips to be as fun, if not more fun, than home games.  Great experiences and get to meet some opposing supporters who are 99% friendly.  It is more expensive to do although for us who don’t live in Toronto, there’s a cost going to home games as well.

I last saw a Canada home game in the mid 80s I think.

[Unnamed Trialist]

3 hours ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

I tweeted at that journalist; I think he is wrong. It would be incredibly unfair for Honduras to have suspended players given that the top 4 teams won't have any, as they didn't need to play in the competition in September and October.

 

 

 

There's no reason for a Canadian player with card accumulation or a red in Copa America to not have to serve it in the next official match. Not saying there are any, just that suspensions should be served. 

Uruguay are serving their Copa suspensions for their CONMEBOL qualifiers. 

Edited Tuesday at 08:32 PM by Unnamed Trialist

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

12 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

There's no reason for a Canadian player with card accumulation or a red in Copa America to not have to serve it in the next official match. Not saying there are any, just that suspensions should be served. 

Uruguay are serving their Copa suspensions for their CONMEBOL qualifiers. 

It's just that, as far as I am aware, suspensions from yellow card accumulation were always applied only if the other team was in the same situation.

Yellow card suspensions never carry over to other competitions anyways.

[SthMelbRed]

I believe that we had players in the same boat getting screwed in the Octagonal, after we'd gone through the gauntlet of earlier qualifying, no?

[maplebanana]

Uhh... Suriname already up 2-0 after 10'. 

[maplebanana]

Guyana scores, and it's 2-1 in 23'. Not to get too ahead of things, but if this game ends 4-1 and Suriname gets exactly 1 yellow card (currently 7 to 6 yellows for honduras), I think the tiebreak is a coin toss. And I know how much we all love coin tosses.

[maplebanana]

Suriname winning 4-1 at 51', with 1 yellow card. Cheer for chaos!

[K Edgar]

Suriname 5 - 1...  Costa Rica 3 - 0

[Neil R.]

5-1 Suriname with 20 minutes left. If this holds, Suriname would be the best 2nd place team.

We'll see who ends up 2nd in the CONCACAF rankings after this window, but whoever it is, they could get Suriname in the quarter-final.

[maplebanana]

FT in Suriname game, ending 5-1. 

Simple now. USA wins, we face Jamaica. USA draw or loss, we face Suriname. 

[Vasi]

17 minutes ago, maplebanana said:

FT in Suriname game, ending 5-1. 

Simple now. USA wins, we face Jamaica. USA draw or loss, we face Suriname. 

I would not mind a Jamaica revenge game! More so then Surinam.

[PastPros]

Just now, Vasi said:

I would not mind a Jamaica revenge game! More so then Surinam.

+1