CONCACAF Nations League 2024-25 - Group Stage & ¼finals - General Thread

[Unnamed Trialist]

14 minutes ago, blueseeka said:

This is a little confusing

No one told them the next game is going to be played in Mexican territory, playing outside the States is not in any of their contracts with the USNT.

[Obinna]

Just now, Unnamed Trialist said:

No one told them the next game is going to be played in Mexican territory, playing outside the States is not in any of their contracts with the USNT.

Zendejas and Vazquez are probably keen, but neither have started well in Liga MX it seems. 

Zendejas with 0 goals in 6 games, which is a slump for a guy who's scored 25 in 100 for Club America

Vazquez has 2 in 3 for Monterrey, which isn't terrible, but isn't great. 

[Kadenge]

Didn't watch the USA v Panama game but the stats were pretty even. The 2nd USA goal was scored in extra time so it was a slim lead into the 90' mark. 

[Mihairokov]

One thing I've learned from watching Montserrat/Bonaire is that Concacaf needs more soft-spoken Jamaican commentators. 

[Mihairokov]

El Salvador were five minutes from drawing St Vincent & The Grenadines on Thursday and tonight they've lost to them on a Diel Spring 88' winner. Five minutes away from both being level in League B after four matches 

[SthMelbRed]

7 hours ago, Obinna said:

Zendejas and Vazquez are probably keen, but neither have started well in Liga MX it seems. 

Zendejas with 0 goals in 6 games, which is a slump for a guy who's scored 25 in 100 for Club America

Vazquez has 2 in 3 for Monterrey, which isn't terrible, but isn't great. 

How is 2 goals in 3 matches not great?

[Kent]

Another negative to the current League A format. I find myself not really caring so much about League B results anymore. 16 teams in League A means there isn't much strength in League B (compared to when it was 12 teams in League A before) plus with us (currently at least) in a top 4 position there is still this whole other competition between teams promoted from League B and when we enter the tournament. So it feels like it doesn't matter so much who makes it out of League B because they still haven't qualified for the competition we are in.

[Obinna]

2 hours ago, SthMelbRed said:

How is 2 goals in 3 matches not great?

Crap. That was a typo. He has scored 3 in 12.

[CanadaFan123]

9 hours ago, Kent said:

Another negative to the current League A format. I find myself not really caring so much about League B results anymore. 16 teams in League A means there isn't much strength in League B (compared to when it was 12 teams in League A before) plus with us (currently at least) in a top 4 position there is still this whole other competition between teams promoted from League B and when we enter the tournament. So it feels like it doesn't matter so much who makes it out of League B because they still haven't qualified for the competition we are in.

I hear you but from our perspective League B is just qualifiers for potential future Gold Cup opponents. 

[Shway]

So our home game at BMO has been announced for November. 

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

7 minutes ago, Shway said:

So our home game at BMO has been announced for November. 

The date and venue (Toronto) had already been announced at the same time as when the October game was announced.

What's new here is that tickets for the November game go on sale Thursday (presale). Presumably the Voyageurs tickets will go on sale on Thursday or Friday.

[JamboAl]

24 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

The date and venue (Toronto) had already been announced at the same time as when the October game was announced.

What's new here is that tickets for the November game go on sale Thursday (presale). Presumably the Voyageurs tickets will go on sale on Thursday or Friday.

V’s presale will be on Thursday

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

Tonight's matches

Jamaica vs Honduras is on OneSoccer and here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbhlPGA30DQ

Nicaragua vs Guyane française:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jamC837O3lc

Trinidad and Tobago vs Cuba:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfGP0hwIUgE
Fun fact, they are playing this match, not in Trinidad but in Tobago!

 

 

 

[Mihairokov]

Very dull first half between Jamaica and Honduras.

Jamaica are playing Holgate and Pinnock as a back two but a lot of the time the wingbacks were so far ahead they were easy to exploit. Any pass into the mids would be pressed and turned over, Pinnock isn't swift enough to cover Holgate's flat passes being turned over. 

Lozano has had three or four good chances and breaks but has had poor finishing so far. 

It feels like the pitch actively works against a Jamaica side that wants to run with the ball into space. Very chunky and soft pitch, Holgate and a few others have fallen and taken divets out of it. Blake isn't at all happy with the pace they're playing at. I wouldn't consider Honduras a pacey side and yet their mids and forwards are finding lots of space. 

[archer21]

16 minutes ago, Mihairokov said:

Very dull first half between Jamaica and Honduras.

Jamaica are playing Holgate and Pinnock as a back two but a lot of the time the wingbacks were so far ahead they were easy to exploit. Any pass into the mids would be pressed and turned over, Pinnock isn't swift enough to cover Holgate's flat passes being turned over. 

Lozano has had three or four good chances and breaks but has had poor finishing so far. 

It feels like the pitch actively works against a Jamaica side that wants to run with the ball into space. Very chunky and soft pitch, Holgate and a few others have fallen and taken divets out of it. Blake isn't at all happy with the pace they're playing at. I wouldn't consider Honduras a pacey side and yet their mids and forwards are finding lots of space. 

Think a draw is more or less worst case, right? Means we could very well play Jamaica if we’re the 3 seed and Honduras if we’re the 2 seed.

[Neil R.]

If French Guiana's 2-1 lead over Nicaragua holds, Nicaragua could find themselves demoted to League B and the play-in round for the Gold Cup. Trinidad and Tobago is leading Cuba 2-0 and with a win, they would finish the group stage with 5 points. Nicaragua currently has 4 points. French Guiana has 1 point. A French Guiana win would also give them 4 points, but I think they would get the nod for having a slightly better goal difference from a 2-1 win (-1 compared to Nicaragua's -2). Nicaragua might need at least a draw to stay in League A and qualify for the Gold Cup Preliminary Round.

[Neil R.]

12 minutes ago, archer21 said:

Think a draw is more or less worst case, right? Means we could very well play Jamaica if we’re the 3 seed and Honduras if we’re the 2 seed.

It's too bad we don't know what spot we're locked into.

I'd like to avoid Jamaica in the quarter-final, so I'm okay with a draw if we stay 2nd in the CONCACAF rankings. If Jamaica draws and wins their group, they'll either get the 4th seeded CONCACAF team or the 3rd, depending on whether they're the group winner with the highest point total or not.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

On 5/26/2024 at 8:53 AM, TGAA_Star said:

Jamaica 🇯🇲 should top the group easily but as far as who ends up runner up, a toss up between Honduras 🇭🇳 and Trinidad & Tobago 🇹🇹 but it will have to be Honduras for me.

On 5/26/2024 at 11:30 AM, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

@Neil R. & @Kent say:

Based on the format and the results of the previous edition, the 1st and 2nd seed are incredibly unlikely to end up ranked 1st and 2nd by the end of October because they will take points off of each other

@TGAA_Star says:

For Group B, fuck your analysis, my prediction is Jamaica finishes 1st and Honduras finishes 2nd. 😄

 

On 5/26/2024 at 11:35 AM, TGAA_Star said:

Bro that's what I just said...Jamaica ends up in 1st and Honduras 2nd 🤣🤦🏿

Congrats to @TGAA_Star for his foresight. It seemed unlikely, but he got the final standings right! 

Respect where respect is due!

 

20 minutes ago, Neil R. said:

I'd like to avoid Jamaica in the quarter-final

A win for us against Panama tomorrow is better for our chances of avoiding Jamaica.

Edited Tuesday at 02:52 AM by Olympique_de_Marseille

[Mihairokov]

Jamaica 0-0 Honduras full-time. Jamaica looked better in the second half and Honduras hardly pressed at all. Neither team looked at all dangerous but I wouldn't want to play either away, and frankly Jamaica probably play better on quicker turf. Gray probably my pick of the match but Pinnock was good defensively. 

Seems like Nicaragua/Guyane was the match to watch tonight. 

[Obinna]

So Costa Rica can either top group A and snatch 1st seed with a win of any score tomorrow, or they could get bounced all together with a loss.

[CanadaFan123]

25 minutes ago, Obinna said:

So Costa Rica can either top group A and snatch 1st seed with a win of any score tomorrow, or they could get bounced all together with a loss.

With a loss or draw chances are good they’re bounced. 

[Kent]

28 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

Congrats to @TGAA_Star for his foresight. It seemed unlikely, but he got the final standings right! 

Respect where respect is due!

 

A win for us against Panama tomorrow is better for our chances of avoiding Jamaica.

I didn't remember his prediction, but I came here to say what I thought was very unlikely has now happened 33% of the time in this format

[Neil R.]

By not losing to Jamaica, Honduras looks like they have a pretty good chance at being the best 2nd place, with 7 points and a +4 goal differential.

If Guatemala wins tomorrow, Honduras has more points (7) than Costa Rica (5). If Guatemala/Costa Rica draw, Honduras still has more points (7) than Costa Rica (6). If Costa Rica wins, Honduras and Guatemala would each have 7 points, but Honduras would have a better goal difference. One of the teams on 4 points (Suriname or Martinique) could get to 7 points with a win and could finish 2nd if Costa Rica draws or loses, but the goal difference would be a lot to make up to be the best 2nd (Honduras +4, Suriname +1, Martinique -1).

I've looked at this a couple of times. It feels like there's no Guatemala/Costa Rica result tomorrow where one of those 2 teams ends up being the best 2nd. Maybe someone can double check.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

The night before the crucial Tuesday matchday update (assuming @maplebanana 's points model is correct and assuming I understood the tiebreakers correctly)

The matchups for November will be as follows
QF1: Panama vs Best first place (1A/1B) 
QF2: [USA or Canada] vs Next first place (1A/1B) 
QF3: [USA or Canada] vs Best second place (2A/2B) 
QF4: Mexico vs Next second place (2A/2B)

Given the above, of the twelve League A teams, we cannot face eight of them in the quarter-finals (same conclusion as @Neil R. )  :
Guyane française [didn't finish top two in Group B]
Cuba [didn't finish top two in Group B]
Trinidad and Tobago [didn't finish top two in Group B]
Nicaragua [didn't finish top two in Group B]
Guyana [cannot finish top two in Group A]
Guadeloupe [can only finish as high as "Next second place" as they would be worse than Honduras on points, so if they make 2nd place in their group they would face Mexico]
Guatemala [can either finish "Best first place" with a win or a draw against Costa Rica, as they would be on 10 points with a win or on 8 points and +4 goal difference or better with a draw, which would put them above Jamaica, or, with a loss, they would find themselves below Honduras because they would be at best on 7 points and a +3 goal difference and Honduras is on 7 points and a +4 goal difference, so they would be at best the "Next second place" team; Guatemala can therefore theoretically only face Mexico or Panama if they advance]
Costa Rica [can either finish "Best first place" with a win as they will be on 8 points and +4 goal difference or better, and therefore ahead of Jamaica, or, they would finish below Honduras in points with a loss or a draw, so they would be at best the "Next second place" team; Costa Rica can therefore theoretically only face Mexico or Panama if they advance]

These are the four teams we can face:

Suriname (not super likely, but quite possible):
We will face them if
• We beat Panama and the USA draws or loses against Mexico
or
• We draw Panama and the USA loses against Mexico
 
AND Suriname would need to beat Guyana by at least 4 goals or by 3 goals (possibly 4-1, and definitely 5-2, 6-3, 7-4 or higher)
AND Martinique don't get an absurdly good result

Martinique (incredibly unlikely):
We will face them if
• We beat Panama and the USA draws or loses against Mexico
or
• We draw Panama and the USA loses against Mexico
 
AND Martinique would need to beat Guadeloupe by at least 5 goals
AND Suriname do not get the good result against Guyana mentioned above

Honduras:
We will face them if
• We beat Panama and the USA draws or loses against Mexico
• We draw Panama and the USA loses against Mexico
AND Suriname and Martinique don't get the results mentioned above

Jamaica:
We will face them if
• we lose against Panama
• the USA wins against Mexico
• the USA draws against Mexico and we draw against Panama

----------------
Gut probabilities for November:
78% chance we face Honduras or Jamaica
21.99% chance we face Suriname (I think there is a decent chance their Dutch talent saves them at home)
0.01% chance we face Martinique

Edited Tuesday at 05:51 AM by Olympique_de_Marseille

[Obinna]

6 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

The night before the crucial Tuesday matchday update (assuming @maplebanana 's points model is correct and assuming I understood the tiebreakers correctly)

The matchups for November will be as follows
QF1: Panama vs Best first place (1A/1B) 
QF2: [USA or Canada] vs Next first place (1A/1B) 
QF3: [USA or Canada] vs Best second place (2A/2B) 
QF4: Mexico vs Next second place (2A/2B)

Given the above, of the twelve League A teams, we cannot face eight of them in the quarter-finals (same conclusion as @Neil R. )  :
Guyane française [didn't finish top two in Group B]
Cuba [didn't finish top two in Group B]
Trinidad and Tobago [didn't finish top two in Group B]
Nicaragua [didn't finish top two in Group B]
Guyana [cannot finish top two in Group A]
Guadeloupe [can only finish as high as "Next second place" as they would be worse than Honduras on points, so if they make qualify they would face Mexico]
Guatemala [can either finish "Best first place" with a win or a draw against Costa Rica, as they would be on 10 points with a win or on 8 points and +4 goal difference or better with a draw, which would put them above Jamaica, or, with a loss, they would find themselves below Honduras because they would be at best on 7 points and a +3 goal difference and Honduras is on 7 points and a +4 goal difference, so they would be at best the "Next second place" team; Guatemala can therefore theoretically only face Mexico or Panama if they advance]
Costa Rica [can either finish "Best first place" with a win as they will be on 8 points and +4 goal difference or better, and therefore ahead of Jamaica, or, they would finish below Honduras in points with a loss or a draw, so they would be at best the "Next second place" team; Costa Rica can therefore theoretically only face Mexico or Panama if they advance]

These are the four teams we can face:

Suriname (not super likely, but quite possible):
We will face them if
• We beat Panama and the USA draws or loses against Mexico
or
• We draw Panama and the USA loses against Mexico
 
AND Suriname would need to beat Guyana by at least 4 goals or by 3 goals (possibly 4-1, and definitely 5-2, 6-3, 7-4 or higher)
AND Martinique don't get an absurdly good result

Martinique (incredibly unlikely):
We will face them if
• We beat Panama and the USA draws or loses against Mexico
or
• We draw Panama and the USA loses against Mexico
 
AND Martinique would need to beat Guadeloupe by at least 5 goals
AND Suriname do not get the good result against Guyana mentioned above

Honduras:
We will face them if
• We beat Panama and the USA draws or loses against Mexico
• We draw Panama and the USA loses against Mexico
AND Suriname and Martinique don't get the results mentioned above

Jamaica:
We will face them if
• we lose against Panama
• the USA wins against Mexico
• the USA draws against Mexico and we draw against Panama

----------------
Gut probabilities for November:
78% chance we face Honduras or Jamaica
21.99% chance we face Suriname (I think there is a decent chance their Dutch talent saves them at home)
0.01% chance we face Martinique

This is a great breakdown but damn it seems like facing Jamaica is the most likely outcome here. Shame they couldn't beat Honduras tonight. They didn't look great from what I saw (last 15 minutes of the game), but like I have repeatedly said, we don't match up well against them. 

At the same time, I am not super psyched to face Honduras either. Yes we have the advantage over them for a while, but it's not a comfortable match up (and maybe that's a good thing).