Next CanMNT manager (Herdman to TFC)

[Kent]

4 hours ago, narduch said:

The ironic thing about this, is even today most of the US's best players are duals they had nothing to do with MLS. 

You got me curious. I just looked at the starting 11 for USA in the Nations League final. Here are the number of players by the first pro league they signed for.

NASL: 1
France: 1
Germany: 4
MLS: 3
England: 1
Netherlands: 1

And for Canada's game against T&T.

MLS: 6
CPL: 1
Portugal: 1
Belgium: 1
England: 1

Or if we want to count it, players that played for L1C teams (including TSS Rovers who weren't L1C at the time for Waterman): 5

[InglewoodJack]

We’re also talking about the CPL’s inability to produce national team stars but… Tajon, Larin, Johnston, Kone all played League1 level ball which is a league that is below the CPL. Many of those guys went to the NCAA. CPL players also don’t lose their college eligibility, so many will also go that path. We’ve taken players from worse domestic leagues than the CPL and turned them into stars. Unsure why the CPL couldn’t do it. 

[red card]

2 hours ago, gkhs said:

This is a typically off-the-rails (and off topic) conversation.

However, I think this debate misses the larger point. Any country that wants to compete needs as many professional players as possible. It really is a numbers game.

Right now, including CanPL players, there are around 300 professional players identifiable as Canadian; give-or-take a few multinationals or people who fall off (or get back on) a roster.

Very very basic statistics suggest that perhaps 7 of those players would be significantly above average and (including those) perhaps 48 would be, at least, somewhat above average. (2 standard deviations and 1 standard deviation.)

I think this plays out to be (at least in the realm of) accurate. Lets call Davies, David, Eustaquio, Buchanan, Larin, Kone and Johnston the 7; and call the preliminary squad evidence that we have around 48 (or 47) selectable players.

If we accept those premises; for a country to field 23 significantly above average players, it would take ~1,000 professional players.

Now, there is absolutely an argument that you can do more with less; if you are elite at player development, you move the whole bell curve over, and, because your average is higher, your somewhat-above-average is better. I think there is some truth there. Before you point to Denmark:

Cursory research shows that Denmark has over 600 professional players, including close to 400 domestic professionals, but ignoring ~300 third tier domestics (since I have no idea what the level of professionalism there is).

My take is that to thrive we need more opportunity, and we also need to do a better job with development. My instinct is that more is probably easier than better.

 

The numbers game is why many followers of the American development system say 30ish American MLS teams isn't enough. Europe has over 1000 pro clubs while the USA has only over 100.

Having the USL helps but ideal synergies come with leagues connected by pro/rel where clubs are competing to develop players rather than competing in soccerwarz.

Having more local teams in a connected pyramid builds out the number of passionate supporters of the sport. Then in a generation, these fans will get their kids a ball at an earlier age than they did. That means more kids have better mastery of the ball before age 10 which allows them to layer on other ball skills earlier. More parents will be able to pass on football iq and skills to their kids and less hockey dad types in Canada will be coaching their kids soccer team.

[Watchmen]

2 hours ago, InglewoodJack said:

We’re also talking about the CPL’s inability to produce national team stars but… Tajon, Larin, Johnston, Kone all played League1 level ball which is a league that is below the CPL. Many of those guys went to the NCAA. CPL players also don’t lose their college eligibility, so many will also go that path.

I'm pretty sure they lose their NCAA eligibility.

[Watchmen]

4 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

Agree to disagree I guess.  For talented young Canadians, I can absolutely see CPL being a desirable pathway as long as the league can demonstrate a sustained ability to move players into more advanced leagues - which it is already doing.  If I am a talented 16 year old, I think the opportunity to join a pro senior team (albeit one with relatively low salaries) is a viable and desirable option vs joining an MLS academy.  I believe there are already examples of this happening (though I stand to be corrected on that). 

The MLS teams will continue to have a recruitment advantage as long as CPL doesn't have the same youth structures in place (i.e. the MLS team will be able to recruit them earlier) but that isn't necessarily going to be the case over the long term.  Plus the CPL clubs will continue to develop local grassroots pathways that should uncover some gems.  They have a very real chance of finding the next Kone, who wasn't affiliated with an MLS academy structure as a youth player despite being obviously talented. 

For me the bottom line is that the opportunity to step into a competitive pro environment at a younger age will be attractive to some of the guys that don't see the MLS as the final destination.  For anyone aspiring to bigger things, I see no reason why CPL won't be a legitimate pathway.  After that it is just a numbers game.   And there may already be some in the pipeline.  Tavernier just turned 18, plays for Forge and Canada (at the youth level), and is the second youngest Canadian in the modern era to score in the CONCACAF Champion's Cup (the youngest being Phonzie).  Maintaining that a guy like that couldn't materialize into a solid CMNT contributor is just being stubborn. 

I don't disagree that at least some younger players have already decided to forego MLS. In a general sense, we'll see if it's successful.  I think it's a two stage process.

1) Bigger clubs in Europe signing young CPL players (ie they also view it as a viable pathway for talent). That might already be happening with Tavernier.

2) Those players then having success in Europe (ie the clubs were correct).

I think it's also worth keeping in mind that one of the biggest buyers/aquirrers of CPL talent is...MLS. So there's no reason the two leagues can't work together.

[dyslexic nam]

23 minutes ago, Watchmen said:

I don't disagree that at least some younger players have already decided to forego MLS. In a general sense, we'll see if it's successful.  I think it's a two stage process.

1) Bigger clubs in Europe signing young CPL players (ie they also view it as a viable pathway for talent). That might already be happening with Tavernier.

2) Those players then having success in Europe (ie the clubs were correct).

I think it's also worth keeping in mind that one of the biggest buyers/aquirrers of CPL talent is...MLS. So there's no reason the two leagues can't work together.

Fully agree with the last part.   Almost nobody (*cough* Ansem) discounts the contribution that MLS has made and will continue to make.  I just strongly disagree with the idea that CPL will only ever play a bit part in terms of player development.  For me, the two pathways can coexist and the continued presence of MLS does not devalue what CPL will bring to the table.  

[kacbru]

7 hours ago, Pomoxis said:

I am convinced O_t_p is an employee of the CPL, tasked with consolidating positive public opinion for the league.

In case you didn't hear, repeatedly, they even bought a onesoccer subscription.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

17 hours ago, Pomoxis said:

I am convinced O_t_p is an employee of the CPL, tasked with consolidating positive public opinion for the league.

^^^looks like this guy needs a reality check as to what the audience reach of this forum is. There have been about 95000 views of this thread so far. That sounds like a big number but there have been 1600 posts so that translates to about 60 views per post or about the combined size of the York United and Vancouver FC active fan groups on a good day. This forum is skewed very heavily towards the sort of people who would be doing that and nothing like as much to the far larger number of fans that are in the supporters sections for TFC and Whitecaps games or to the still larger number of people who are active participants in grassroots level soccer in Canada and have only a modest level of interest at best in the domestic pro soccer scene.

The problems start when people making decisions within Canadian soccer get it in their heads that the views they see posted on forums like this are representative of how the mainstream soccer community views things. CanPL investors do genuinely appear to have believed that there was a market for York 9 when the team launched and that Paul Beirne was doing something useful for them when he was posting on here a lot and doing podcasts with the sort of soccer fans who tend to post here. It wasn't just me who was posting the cold hard reality that York 9 would be doing well to attract 1000 regular fans but in a forum as severely skewed away from the norm as this place that wound up being portrayed as an outlandish minority perspective.

[Ottawafan]

19 hours ago, Sal333 said:

I'd define an elite player as someone who can play in the best leagues in the world. David, Davies, Eustaquio, Buchanan, Larin.

Sorry I thought you meant developing elite players, as in youth that are categorized as elite.  We don't really have too many kids who scream elite.  We may slap them with that title only because it is relative to their peers.  We do have many good quality kids tho... kids we don't know what level of ability they will develop into.  Obviously it isn't an exact science, but it blew me away the notion that David developed "in spite of his lack of quality coaching".  BS.  There are many different paths to achieve this; hopefully CPL will continue to become a viable one!!

Davies and David are elite for sure.  I wouldn't say the others are elite in relation to their place amongst their teams or leagues more like average.  When it comes to Canada and our region, then yes they are top players.

[Pomoxis]

4 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

^^^looks like this guy needs a reality check as to what the audience reach of this forum is. There have been about 95000 views of this thread so far. That sounds like a big number but there have been 1600 posts so that translates to about 60 views per post or about the combined size of the York United and Vancouver FC active fan groups on a good day. This forum is skewed very heavily towards the sort of people who would be doing that and nothing like as much to the far larger number of fans that are in the supporters sections for TFC and Whitecaps games or to the still larger number of people who are active participants in grassroots level soccer in Canada and have only a modest level of interest at best in the domestic pro soccer scene.

The problems start when people making decisions within Canadian soccer get it in their heads that the views they see posted on forums like this are representative of how the mainstream soccer community views things. CanPL investors do genuinely appear to have believed that there was a market for York 9 when the team launched and that Paul Beirne was doing something useful for them when he was posting on here a lot and doing podcasts with the sort of soccer fans who tend to post here. It wasn't just me who was posting the cold hard reality that York 9 would be doing well to attract 1000 regular fans but in a forum as severely skewed away from the norm as this place that wound up being portrayed as an outlandish minority perspective.

whoosh

[InglewoodJack]

16 hours ago, Watchmen said:

I'm pretty sure they lose their NCAA eligibility.

Isn’t there a new type of CPL contract that allows players to then go to school? Or is that just in Canada? May have misread, but I thought I saw HFX sign a player with intention of going to school. 

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

18 minutes ago, InglewoodJack said:

Isn’t there a new type of CPL contract that allows players to then go to school? Or is that just in Canada? May have misread, but I thought I saw HFX sign a player with intention of going to school. 

Just in Canada with U-Sports.

[phresh]

18 minutes ago, InglewoodJack said:

Isn’t there a new type of CPL contract that allows players to then go to school? Or is that just in Canada? May have misread, but I thought I saw HFX sign a player with intention of going to school. 

Players on development contracts don’t lose NCAA eligibility, Stewart-Baynes did in fact sign one with Halifax, Caldeira and Firek with Forge. There are probably more past examples. This upcoming freshman class includes a couple players formerly on development deals, the amount of Canadian talent committing to NCAA seems quite high this year

[narduch]

 

 

[jonovision]

1 hour ago, narduch said:

 

 

Yikes. Might as well keep Biello.

[Sal333]

On 4/12/2024 at 2:12 PM, InglewoodJack said:

Why not in the long term? Even if we want to be cynical and assume that every young player in the CPL getting interest or trials from european clubs won't actually make it, you don't think we can produce a single top tier player over the next decade or so from our domestic league? That's very hard to believe, even just from an odds perspective, let alone the reality that the CPL is improving, the young players in 2024 are much better than the numbers in 2019.

Davies was identified from some local club in Edmonton. Jonathan David went to Europe from Ottawa. It's really hard for me to believe that somehow, a league with an actual infrastructure, developed ties with european leagues and a full integration within CONCACAF can't do the same, not even once. Like, you would need coaches and trainers actively sabotaging players for not a single CPL player to ever become "CANMNT starter" quality or whatever you want to describe as a quality CPL export. Bookmark this post, by 2034, we're going to have a player on the tier of our very best current players who will have started in the CPL. That I am completely positive of.

I did concede that the CPL would cough up the occasional Waterman but I will be shocked if it finds and helps to develop a David, Davies, Buchanan or Eustaquio.

2034. LOL. You must be fairly young or an optimist. Go ahead and bookmark this post. I wonder how many of us will be around in 10 years.

Edited April 13 by Sal333

[JAVIERF]

On 4/6/2024 at 1:28 PM, InglewoodJack said:

Is he rioplatanese?

Francisco "Pancho " Lampardo aka as "el caburé del tango "

[JAVIERF]

Gus Poyet is in the mix down here sources too.  Canada is into rioplatense footie culture ,  dont make your goalie waste time when winning ,  fellows 

[pod818]

7 hours ago, jonovision said:

Yikes. Might as well keep Biello.

I think Smyrniotis would be a great candidate for the job

[InglewoodJack]

11 hours ago, Sal333 said:

I did concede that the CPL would cough up the occasional Waterman but I will be shocked if it finds and helps to develop a David, Davies, Buchanan or Eustaquio.

2034. LOL. You must be fairly young or an optimist. Go ahead and bookmark this post. I wonder how many of us will be around in 10 years.

That still makes no sense. You’ve brought up players who have played in Canadian leagues below the CPL, but somehow the CPL won’t produce a single veritable talent ever in its history. Buchanan, Larin both played for Sigma. Jonathan David was brought to Europe from some local Ottawa teams. None of these clubs are on par with the CPL now, so it’s weird to think that the top domestic league in the country can’t do what lower leagues do, not only now, but forever. Even Eustaquio came up through the Portuguese third division which is not a good league at all. 

Fortunately, we’ll probably be able to look back on this post a lot sooner than a decade from now, so we won’t have to wait that long. 

[narduch]

4 hours ago, pod818 said:

I think Smyrniotis would be a great candidate for the job

I would have given him a shot immediately after Herdman quit.

If he looked out of his depth you still would have had time to bring someone else in before the World Cup.

Besides I think he would do surprisingly well.

[ImYourKeeper]

12 hours ago, jonovision said:

Yikes. Might as well keep Biello.

Why?  2 coaches with a great record in a parity league, versus a coach with minimal pro coaching experience and win record of way below .500.  Biello hasn't proven himself ANYWHERE

[costarg]

1 hour ago, ImYourKeeper said:

Why?  2 coaches with a great record in a parity league, versus a coach with minimal pro coaching experience and win record of way below .500.  Biello hasn't proven himself ANYWHERE

While I don't disagree, we gotta keep it real.  Biello is not way below .500.  Record is actually even with 48 wins and 48 draws and a positive GD.  It's actually a winning record if you remove the U20 matches he coached.

And if I'm really being honest, I feel keeping Herdman's tactics and favorites also played against him.  There was too much continuity there that didn't work out.  A reset and fresh ideas would have been ideal. 

Edited April 14 by costarg

[jonovision]

1 hour ago, ImYourKeeper said:

Why?  2 coaches with a great record in a parity league, versus a coach with minimal pro coaching experience and win record of way below .500.  Biello hasn't proven himself ANYWHERE

Smyrniotis has had more talent on his roster every season than his competition. Speaks to his connections and strength as a recruiter, but those aren't the most important strengths for a national team coach. Tactically and as a motivator I don't know if he is anything special. 

To be clear I don't want Biello to stay but I don't see either Wheeldon or Smyrniotis as an improvement. 

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

2 hours ago, InglewoodJack said:

That still makes no sense. You’ve brought up players who have played in Canadian leagues below the CPL, but somehow the CPL won’t produce a single veritable talent ever in its history...

Who has even argued that last bit? What is clear is that CanPL is playing a marginal rather than a crucial role in CMNT player development terms so there is no compelling logical reason why CSB should have control over CMNT revenue streams. In the absence of that deal and what it has been doing to CSA finances maybe the notion that the CSA is going after Frank Lampard would seem somewhat credible rather than something his agent probably spread about to remind clubs that he's still alive and available for hire.