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Next CanMNT manager (Herdman to TFC)


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26 minutes ago, Bigandy said:

I think that it was discussed during the heritage meetings that hosting a camp costs 1million. Then theres also the fee we pay other teams to come play us. For youth camps, I just threw up a number somewhere in between. Even if you call it 375k for the youth teams, then 8 youth camps and 2 sr camps is 5million. The savings of a coach is 500k or 10% of the 5million we need. 

Right now we have more than 0 camps. Our u20s are literally having one now. We will have another in march for T and T. etc. I certainly think its wishful thinking that getting a cheap coach saves enough money for one camp, let alone 2. 

My list of pros and cons is only related to the pay scale of a coach and what it likely mean. For example, getting a lower end pay scale coach can result in a coach with or without concacaf experience. It would be impossible to determine which category to put concacaf experience in using my metrics of pros and cons (unless we specifically name names). 

Now if we are talking about the pros and cons of what we want out of a coach, then I 100% agree with everything your saying about regional experience. 

About bobby specifically

Pros: He is likely to get 400k salary which is 300k less than herdman.
-canadian
-knows some of the players
-understands canadian landscape
-experience in concacaf
-has potential

cons: 300k doesnt afford us any additional camps. 
- zero experience with world class talent
-extremely limited experience in concacaf
-zero international experience
-zero evidence he can succeed at a higher level than CPL 

Bobby would be an incredible risk to gamble on. Im not entirely opposed but if we are talking about players, no one in the CPL is currently at CMNT level. CPL players are far from being starters and even further from becoming team leaders.

To hand the controls over to a man whos biggest accomplishment is coaching a team with players who are several rungs below our squad is a massive ask IMO. I think bobby needs to move up to at least an MLS level and prove himself there before I want to take on the risk. 

$1m for a camp? Maybe naïve, but I had no idea it could be even half of that.

In regards to Bobby, I understand your cons, but those cons are also there for Henry except for "International experience".  Even his "experience with world class talent" is a massive question mark, we know he has major issues with world class talent as well as the lower rung guys.  Even Falcao was very critical of Henry's antics.  This is all very well documented.

So he has almost all the cons, none of the pros, except for a flashy name and an impressive CV as a player.  

Bottom line, with Bobby, we're taking a chance on a guy that has excelled at lower levels and shows a lot of upside and potential.  Henry, we're throwing money at someone for what they accomplished as a player and for marketing reasons.  We know he is not a good coach, leader or tactician.   There is nothing that suggests or indicates success on the field.

 

 

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37 minutes ago, Bigandy said:

I think that it was discussed during the heritage meetings that hosting a camp costs 1million. Then theres also the fee we pay other teams to come play us. For youth camps, I just threw up a number somewhere in between. Even if you call it 375k for the youth teams, then 8 youth camps and 2 sr camps is 5million. The savings of a coach is 500k or 10% of the 5million we need. 

Right now we have more than 0 camps. Our u20s are literally having one now. We will have another in march for T and T. etc. I certainly think its wishful thinking that getting a cheap coach saves enough money for one camp, let alone 2. 

My list of pros and cons is only related to the pay scale of a coach and what it likely mean. For example, getting a lower end pay scale coach can result in a coach with or without concacaf experience. It would be impossible to determine which category to put concacaf experience in using my metrics of pros and cons (unless we specifically name names). 

Now if we are talking about the pros and cons of what we want out of a coach, then I 100% agree with everything your saying about regional experience. 

About bobby specifically

Pros: He is likely to get 400k salary which is 300k less than herdman.
-canadian
-knows some of the players
-understands canadian landscape
-experience in concacaf
-has potential

cons: 300k doesnt afford us any additional camps. 
- zero experience with world class talent
-extremely limited experience in concacaf
-zero international experience
-zero evidence he can succeed at a higher level than CPL 

Bobby would be an incredible risk to gamble on. Im not entirely opposed but if we are talking about players, no one in the CPL is currently at CMNT level. CPL players are far from being starters and even further from becoming team leaders.

To hand the controls over to a man whos biggest accomplishment is coaching a team with players who are several rungs below our squad is a massive ask IMO. I think bobby needs to move up to at least an MLS level and prove himself there before I want to take on the risk. 

Ah.  I see where the disconnect is now. I wouldn't be surprised if an A camp cost around $1M but that's not what we're talking about.  We're talking about a camp poutine with players mostly already in-country.  And that doesn't necessarily require an A-level opponent.  This reduces the cost significantly.  The cost goes down even more when you consider youth camps.  I'm betting $375k is still pretty high. So I would argue that saving $300K a year would make a significant difference.

The camps that you are referring to are in relation to official competitions.  Those are already budgeted for.  What our program needs are camps outside official competitions.

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5 hours ago, MtlMario said:

Maybe someone who works in HR can explain what happened to candidates #2,3,4,5 etc etc for the GS job. It can not be possible that all got jobs or all of a sudden they are not interested anymore.☹️

Having been in that position, some of those guys have probably taken other jobs, some haven’t been able to agree to salary and some probably don’t want to be the backup candidate for a job like ours. If you have a highly sought after skillet, “sorry we have decided to move forward with another candidate/oh wait actually we decided to hire you because our top choice said no” isn’t a really good way to get someone excited to work for you. 

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51 minutes ago, costarg said:

$1m for a camp? Maybe naïve, but I had no idea it could be even half of that.

In regards to Bobby, I understand your cons, but those cons are also there for Henry except for "International experience".  Even his "experience with world class talent" is a massive question mark, we know he has major issues with world class talent as well as the lower rung guys.  Even Falcao was very critical of Henry's antics.  This is all very well documented.

So he has almost all the cons, none of the pros, except for a flashy name and an impressive CV as a player.  

Bottom line, with Bobby, we're taking a chance on a guy that has excelled at lower levels and shows a lot of upside and potential.  Henry, we're throwing money at someone for what they accomplished as a player and for marketing reasons.  We know he is not a good coach, leader or tactician.   There is nothing that suggests or indicates success on the field.

 

 

I wasnt comparing henry to bobby. I personally dont want Henry. I was doing a singular analysis of bobby only. 

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46 minutes ago, El Hombre said:

Ah.  I see where the disconnect is now. I wouldn't be surprised if an A camp cost around $1M but that's not what we're talking about.  We're talking about a camp poutine with players mostly already in-country.  And that doesn't necessarily require an A-level opponent.  This reduces the cost significantly.  The cost goes down even more when you consider youth camps.  I'm betting $375k is still pretty high. So I would argue that saving $300K a year would make a significant difference.

The camps that you are referring to are in relation to official competitions.  Those are already budgeted for.  What our program needs are camps outside official competitions.

Great points! I'm all for acknowledging that all my numbers are a bit of a gamble and on the high side. 

Having said that, it also includes high numbers for staff. Realistically if Herdman was on 700k then i think its safe to assume 400-500k for bobby. Thats 200k-300k a year. I dont think we get a camp poutine for that. We likely get one youth camp out of that? 

What does 1 or 2 youth camp do.... I dont think its enough to sway duals. It likely only helps one age group a miniscule amount at tournaments. Bottom line for me is that its not systemic enough to make a major difference to our program. We need much much more investment in these camps to make it systemic.

However, having a top coach get us to copa will result in prize money that far exceeds 300k, provides our sr team massive experience against top teams, and is possibly enough to interest duals. These are the types of things that can help propel the CMNT to bigger things. 

I dont think you take a step back and hire inferior coaching to try and move the program forward (I am not saying that bobby is for sure an inferior coach. IMO henry is just as likely to fail). 

Obviously the big kicker with my logic is that paying more for a coach means better results which is a huge unknown. 

My big point is that we need to hire the right coach, not the one whos cheapest. If bobby is that guy, then im all for it. However, I dont want 250k a year to be the determing factor of who leads our team to the WC. 

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27 minutes ago, Bigandy said:

Great points! I'm all for acknowledging that all my numbers are a bit of a gamble and on the high side. 

Having said that, it also includes high numbers for staff. Realistically if Herdman was on 700k then i think its safe to assume 400-500k for bobby. Thats 200k-300k a year. I dont think we get a camp poutine for that. We likely get one youth camp out of that? 
 

How could you assume that Bobby would be on 400k-500k. You're basically assuming he would more than double his current salary. 

I would like to assume he would take let's say between 200k-300k. Herdman was given that much because he was given a much greater role than just the Head coach. Herdman also had the whole "I got other options" to finesse his bargaining when the reality is Bobby doesn't. 

27 minutes ago, Bigandy said:

What does 1 or 2 youth camp do.... I dont think it's enough to sway duals. It likely only helps one age group a miniscule amount at tournaments. Bottom line for me is that it's not systemic enough to make a major difference to our program. We need much much more investment in these camps to make it systemic.

I consider youth team players U23.
This is the serious gap in our program and it doubles as a senior B team. Theres a lot of guys in the age bracket that need reps, need to be included in the program.

27 minutes ago, Bigandy said:

My big point is that we need to hire the right coach, not the one whos cheapest. If bobby is that guy, then im all for it. However, I dont want 250k a year to be the determing factor of who leads our team to the WC. 

When you're crunching numbers and cash strapped like the CSA is...it's unrealistic and irresponsible to not think this way forward.

TBH Herdman leaving was probably a blessing in disguise as that 750K was a deal that was more than they should have given. 

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2 minutes ago, Shway said:

How could you assume that Bobby would be on 400k-500k. You're basically assuming he would more than double his current salary. 

I would like to assume he would take let's say between 200k-300k. Herdman was given that much because he was given a much greater role than just the Head coach. Herdman also had the whole "I got other options" to finesse his bargaining when the reality is Bobby doesn't. 

I consider youth team players U23.
This is the serious gap in our program and it doubles as a senior B team. Theres a lot of guys in the age bracket that need reps, need to be included in the program.

When you're crunching numbers and cash strapped like the CSA is...it's unrealistic and irresponsible to not think this way forward.

TBH Herdman leaving was probably a blessing in disguise as that 750K was a deal that was more than they should have given. 

If herdman was given much more for a bigger role and bobby doesnt take that role then someone else will and they will be compensated for. I am also assuming that someone for the head coaching role would get 400-500k a year on the lower end. I dont think bobby is in the running to be honest. Yes it would double his salary but thats because theres alot of rungs to climb from CPL to CMNT. 

I agree about the u23 gap. Do we sign koleosho by having one more camp a year? Does nelson become a way better player or take on a much bigger role with CMNT by having one additional camp?  You are describing the issue that I fully see. I'm just saying that one single camp is not enough to make a substantial difference. We need to solve this problem in a better way. There needs to be a much more thought out development plan that just adding one single camp. In order to achieve this development plan, we need substantial investment, much more than 1 additional camp a year. 

I whole heartedly disagree about the fact that its unrealistic to think about not going with the cheapest option for coaching. 

The 2022 financials had 54million in expenses and 47.5 in revenue. If we sign bobby for 200k we save 500k on the salary of the head coach. That is not even 1% of overall expenses. Herdman deserves massive credit for what he accomplished. He gets the program 10million in revenue. Thats 21% of overall revenue. Obviously its not 10m of profit for the program and the less than 1% is a yearly cash flow while the 10m is once every 4 years. However, the concept is that there needs to be substantial changes to solve the cash crisis of CSA. Miniscule cuts are not going to solve anything long term. 

Yes, we need to be financially prudent. Metaphorically speaking, we need to find a way to pay for our car payments(running CSA). The answer is not to stop putting gas in the car(cheaper manager). Otherwise we arent going to be able to make it to our job (prize money/popularity from winning/sponsorships) and then it only becomes more difficult to pay for things in the future. 

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1 hour ago, El Hombre said:

Ah.  I see where the disconnect is now. I wouldn't be surprised if an A camp cost around $1M but that's not what we're talking about.  We're talking about a camp poutine with players mostly already in-country.  And that doesn't necessarily require an A-level opponent.  This reduces the cost significantly.  The cost goes down even more when you consider youth camps.  I'm betting $375k is still pretty high. So I would argue that saving $300K a year would make a significant difference.

The camps that you are referring to are in relation to official competitions.  Those are already budgeted for.  What our program needs are camps outside official competitions.

Here is a rough estimate of the potential cost for u23 or youth camp for a week/international window...

16 rooms for a week = 60K (this is high end as it doesn't account for any group rates)
Field rental = $1,000 (high end again)
Flights for players = 25K
Food/Meals = 10K
Misc = 30K

126K to run a youth camp (players aren't compensated) and if we were fortunate to have 1 a year at each age group for a total of 378K give or take.

I'll definitely take that saving!

Our last U23 team in 2020 had current senior players in Brym, Buchanan, Corneilius, and ZBG. Potential/fringe players in Bair, Farsi, Pantemis, Breza and Godinho.

Theres a lot of value in testing out/keeping interest in this age bracket. 

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4 hours ago, El Hombre said:

Finally, your list of pros and cons is incomplete.  For my money, I want a head coach that has a deep understanding (or at least an appreciation of) the Canadian soccer landscape and our region.  For all of Henry's experience, I would be he has no idea how to prepare for an away date at San Pedro Sula.

For my money, a candidate like Smyrniotis who understands Canadian soccer, who comes with a lower price tag, who is hungry to succeed, and who has shown to have a decent footballing mind is an ideal candidate for us, particularly over someone who has ridden name recognition into some pretty sweet situations and done nothing with them.  And if we can guarantee some camps out of that to boot?  Even better.

You left out one other pro for Bobby taking the CMNT job. That would take him away from Forge so maybe they would stop winning so much and let other CPL teams win some championships.

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46 minutes ago, Shway said:

Here is a rough estimate of the potential cost for u23 or youth camp for a week/international window...

16 rooms for a week = 60K (this is high end as it doesn't account for any group rates)
Field rental = $1,000 (high end again)
Flights for players = 25K
Food/Meals = 10K
Misc = 30K

126K to run a youth camp (players aren't compensated) and if we were fortunate to have 1 a year at each age group for a total of 378K give or take.

I'll definitely take that saving!

Our last U23 team in 2020 had current senior players in Brym, Buchanan, Corneilius, and ZBG. Potential/fringe players in Bair, Farsi, Pantemis, Breza and Godinho.

Theres a lot of value in testing out/keeping interest in this age bracket. 

You make some good points. My numbers were on the high side as I was lazily just picking a % of a senior team camp and applying it to the youth teams. 

It's all rough numbers and it depends on age groups as the younger you go, the more likely you are to offer subway vs a proper meal or take 99% local kids vs guys playing all over the world etc. 

How much does a bus rental cost for a week, do we have to contract physios, how much equipment, car rentals vs a bus rental, insurances, cost of nurtition, how many players in europe are just some variables that could make a massive difference. I did a quick google and saw a bus is 1700$ a day plus $5.50 per mile. Theres another 10k on vehicle rentals alone. 

If you look at the players you mentioned, how many were impacted by the camps we held that either impacted their allegiance to us and/or there development. I would say theres a small case for farsi (if we entrenched him more he maybe would want to commit) but other than that, I dont attribute any of these guys committing to canada because of the olympic qualifiers, or any of their development to this. Maybe you can make a case that buchanans rise to the senior team is accelerated? However, using the olmypic qualifiers as a sample, what would be our expected tangible return for one single camp or even if we could swing it, 2 camps? What would be the tangible opportunity cost of spending these funds on the 1-2 camps instead of elsewhere? 

 

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While a well run successful business is prudent on expenses and efficiencies, real success is driven by revenue growth AND to grow revenues we need our CMNT to be as successful as possible on the field. Win, win &  win. Qualify for Copa, get out of the group. Get lots of media attention, move up FIFA rankings and then we start getting paid to play other Nations, sell out home games, increase merchandise sales etc etc. You gotta invest if you want to generate revenue. Compromising on the quality of a coach is not how I would go.  Btw this is not a knock on Bobby S. 

Edited by Kadenge
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1 minute ago, Kadenge said:

While a well run successful business is prudent on expenses and efficiencies, real success is driven by revenue growth AND to grow revenues we need our CMNT to be as successful as possible on the field. Win, win &  win. Qualify for Copa, get out of the group. Get lots of media attention, move up FIFA rankings and then we start getting paid to play other Nations and we start selling out home games, increase merchandise sales etc etc. You gotta invest if you want to generate revenue. Compromising on the quality of a coach is not how I would go.  Btw this is not a knock on Bobby S. 

Well written and summarized what i wanted to say with my jumbled thoughts. 

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5 hours ago, Bigandy said:

I wasnt comparing henry to bobby. I personally dont want Henry. I was doing a singular analysis of bobby only. 

Ya, I didn't mean it as an accusation.  Your pros and cons kinda sold me even more on Bobby and put even more perspective on Henry's shortcomings. 

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7 hours ago, Kadenge said:

While a well run successful business is prudent on expenses and efficiencies, real success is driven by revenue growth AND to grow revenues we need our CMNT to be as successful as possible on the field. Win, win &  win. Qualify for Copa, get out of the group. Get lots of media attention, move up FIFA rankings and then we start getting paid to play other Nations, sell out home games, increase merchandise sales etc etc. You gotta invest if you want to generate revenue. Compromising on the quality of a coach is not how I would go.  Btw this is not a knock on Bobby S. 

Oh we are getting lots of media attention, over and over for the wrong reasons.  

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For me personally I want a manager for Canada that knows our players but mostly knows our program. Like think Berhalter for the US as an example or the Mexican manager as another example. Both are former players for their national teams and know the players and their programs. If we could get someone on a level like that for 2026 then I think we'll be fine. Biello I mean he's an okay manager but just not who I would have leading us into our home World Cup on our soil.

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15 minutes ago, TGAA_Star said:

For me personally I want a manager for Canada that knows our players but mostly knows our program. Like think Berhalter for the US as an example or the Mexican manager as another example. Both are former players for their national teams and know the players and their programs. If we could get someone on a level like that for 2026 then I think we'll be fine. Biello I mean he's an okay manager but just not who I would have leading us into our home World Cup on our soil.

Except that Berhalter has been pretty bad, and is holding back USMNT.  Good for us, I hope he stays a long time.

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