CPL 2023 Season Attendance

[Kingston]

53 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Plenty of people were posting on here back around 2017 and 2018 that what ultimately happened on average across the league was what was likely to unfold. Definitely not just me. The economic model of the league as configured right now with coast to coast air travel needs your initial dream level to become the norm at a minimum to be able to flourish long term and not be viewed as a minor league entertainment product.

The problem they have is that having it happen in only a few markets doesn't cut it. They need a minimum of eight clubs to be stable in that regard to make this fly long term. That was never going to be easy given the limited number of large cities available in Canada, if as was always likely, fans in the three MLS cities steered clear.

I wasn't necessarily predicting it in 2018, but I did dream about it.

I still think we can get the minimum eight markets up to speed with the current model.  

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

Never say never if somebody is willing to be the Phil Anshutz answering most of the cash calls until they turn the corner but if not hopefully they are willing to make a few adjustments to come up with something that actually is sustainable rather than pulling the plug after tilting at windmills where MLS is concerned latter day NASL style. Enough has gone right that there should be no need for it to follow the CSL in 1992 trajectory this time.

Edited August 24, 2023 by Ozzie_the_parrot

[shermanator]

Sorry, took it too far. 

[Kingston]

25 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Never say never if somebody is willing to be the Phil Anshutz answering most of the cash calls until they turn the corner but if not hopefully they are willing to make a few adjustments to come up with something that actually is sustainable rather than pulling the plug after tilting at windmills where MLS is concerned latter day NASL style. Enough has gone right that there should be no need for it to follow the CSL in 1992 trajectory this time.

The question is at what point the league would need to make adjustments and/or find a sugar daddy.  The longer they can maintain things at the higher level, the more chance of turning the corner.  Cutting back may also lead to a reduction in revenue and a downward cycle.  For now, the owners appear to be willing to shoulder the losses so, for now, there's no reason to change.

We can assess better at season's end, but right now:

Halifax and Forge are fine.  Atletico is a hair short but, given their ownership, they are also fine.  That's three.

Calgary is still short but is improving impressively.  I'm optimistic on them longer term, so call it four.

Then we have to figure out who of Pacific, Winnipeg, and Vancouver can reach break even and which new markets need to fill in the remaining four.  I have to think we can figure out four viable teams from those three plus Quebec, KW, London, and maybe Saskatoon.

[Haligonian#1]

A focus has to be on markets that have the winning conditions. Stadium location will also be super important.

[jonovision]

USL Championship attendance figures:

https://soccerstadiumdigest.com/2023-usl-championship-attendance/

Some key numbers: 2022 average 5061, 2023 average 5658, increase 12%

 

CPL: 2022 avg 3197, 2023 average 3788, increase 19%

 

USL-C also has some teams that probably aren't viable at their current attendance, but if CPL could match those average numbers we'd be in a good place.

[narduch]

They are losing San Diego after this season too

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

11 hours ago, jonovision said:

...USL-C also has some teams that probably aren't viable at their current attendance, ...

When you have 24 clubs, a second tier with 12 clubs and cities as large as Providence and Milwaukee already lined up as expansion markets that doesn't threaten the overall project the way the uncertainty surrounding York United and to a lesser extent the Valour does in a CanPL context. The USL could easily afford to have their league not work in cities like Edmonton and Toronto and simply move on and forget about them. CanPL not so much unless they downscale their economic model in a way that broadens their possibilities on expansion.

[jonovision]

5 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

When you have 24 clubs, a second tier with 12 clubs and cities as large as Providence and Milwaukee already lined up as expansion markets that doesn't threaten the overall project the way the uncertainty surrounding York United and to a lesser extent the Valour does in a CanPL context. The USL could easily afford to have their league not work in cities like Edmonton and Toronto and simply move on and forget about them. CanPL not so much unless they downscale their economic model in a way that broadens their possibilities on expansion.

Even if you downscale your model to a point where cities with a population of 150,000+ become an option, that only opens up 2 or 3 markets in western Canada, for example. A less ambitious CPL simply can't be a national league. 

Edited August 25, 2023 by jonovision

[Watchmen]

24 minutes ago, jonovision said:

Even if you downscale your model to a point where cities with a population of 150,000+ become an option, that only opens up 2 or 3 markets in western Canada, for example. A less ambitious CPL simply can't be a national league. 

It's why I constantly think a "Div 2" won't work. The model is struggling a bit with a div 1, and it just wouldn't scale down further.

[jonovision]

1 minute ago, Watchmen said:

It's why I constantly think a "Div 2" won't work. The model is struggling a bit with a div 1, and it just wouldn't scale down further.

A div 2 would absolutely have to be regional, and I don't think it works outside of BC, Quebec and Ontario (ie: the existing L1s).

[Kingston]

5 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

When you have 24 clubs, a second tier with 12 clubs and cities as large as Providence and Milwaukee already lined up as expansion markets that doesn't threaten the overall project the way the uncertainty surrounding York United and to a lesser extent the Valour does in a CanPL context. The USL could easily afford to have their league not work in cities like Edmonton and Toronto and simply move on and forget about them. CanPL not so much unless they downscale their economic model in a way that broadens their possibilities on expansion.

There's no doubt we are more constrained than the US.  That's just a fact we have to work around.

I'm not convinced we can downscale our way to success, however.  Even if we assume no corresponding drop in revenue (unlikely), we'd have to downscale an awful lot for there to be enough markets to run local regions outside the Windsor-Quebec corridor.  

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

29 minutes ago, jonovision said:

Even if you downscale your model to a point where cities with a population of 150,000+ become an option, that only opens up 2 or 3 markets in western Canada, for example. A less ambitious CPL simply can't be a national league. 

Perhaps worth bearing in mind that as things stand at the moment the economic model didn't work in Edmonton with a population ten times that.

[jonovision]

1 minute ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Perhaps worth bearing in mind that as things stand at the moment the economic model didn't work in Edmonton with a population ten times that.

If your point is that if CPL can fail in a large city like Edmonton, it's not viable anywhere, I admit that's certainly possible, but I think we currently at least 2 or 3 examples that prove otherwise.

If your point is that population doesn't matter, than I agree to a point, but I do think there is a lower bound on the size of city that can support a team that would still have the expense of traveling a third of the way across the country (what would still be required for a more regional model in western Canad). For example, the 4th largest city in MB/SK (Brandon, MB) has a population of 60k and no chance of supporting anything resembling professional soccer, no matter how much you downscale your ambition.

[Kingston]

Breaking it down more explicitly:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710013501

Right now, the markets all have populations of ~500 000 and up with Pacific being a slightly smaller special case because of the status of Victoria as the boss city on the island.  By that standard, we could already add Quebec, KW, and London (and, of course, Edmonton).

If we drop the threshold to 250 000 it adds:  Oshawa, St. Catharines, Windsor, Saskatoon, and Regina.

If we drop to 200 000 it also adds:  St. John's, Sherbrooke, Barrie, Kelowna, and Abbotsford

I already have serious doubts about many of these markets.

If we drop to 150 000, we add a smattering of smaller centres in Ontario and Quebec, plus Moncton.  So even at 150 000,  which is tiny, our Atlantic region has only three teams and everything west of Ontario has added only four teams to what we already have.

The summary being that there's very little advantage in going much below 500 000 and there aren't enough markets in the east or west even if you believe a city of 150 000 can support a national level team.

[Kingston]

6 minutes ago, jonovision said:

If your point is that if CPL can fail in a large city like Edmonton, it's not viable anywhere, I admit that's certainly possible, but I think we currently at least 2 or 3 examples that prove otherwise.

If your point is that population doesn't matter, than I agree to a point, but I do think there is a lower bound on the size of city that can support a team that would still have the expense of traveling a third of the way across the country (what would still be required for a more regional model in western Canad). For example, the 4th largest city in MB/SK (Brandon, MB) has a population of 60k and no chance of supporting anything resembling professional soccer, no matter how much you downscale your ambition.

Very well said.

Population does ultimately have a lower bound under the current model but population is not what caused Edmonton to fail.  (Or York to be doing so badly in the stands.)

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

1 minute ago, jonovision said:

If your point is that if CPL can fail in a large city like Edmonton, it's not viable anywhere, I admit that's certainly possible, but I think we currently at least 2 or 3 examples that prove otherwise...

That definitely wasn't my point. What's important to bear in mind is that 2 or 3 examples aren't enough to sustain a league in a Canadian context and that the USL Championship along with the NASL a few years back hasn't had a 100% success rate with American markets of that sort of size either. 

It's not clear at the moment that there is even one market in western Canada where CanPL provides solid evidence that a USL Championship level of operations would have a shot at working long term without extremely patient ownership. Even Calgary would likely have to boost their regular home support quite a bit from what they are drawing now to make the numbers work. Far from impossible that will happen but no sure thing either. What happens if they start losing regularly, for example? The Edmonton experience shows that things do not always move inexorably in the direction you want them to.

Canada has 3 MLS franchises and the US with about ten times the population has closing in on 30. If the US is currently sustaining 24 clubs at the USL Championship level of budget, it was always a big ask to expect Canada to make a league with a similar level of operations fly in a minimum of 8 cities, particularly if the American experience that they would need to steer clear of MLS markets for the most part was going to be repeated in a Canadian context.

[Watchmen]

43 minutes ago, jonovision said:

A div 2 would absolutely have to be regional, and I don't think it works outside of BC, Quebec and Ontario (ie: the existing L1s).

I agree, though the talk is always "national div 2". And if it was to be regional, then you're almost duplicating the L1s, so at that stage what's the point.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

Disagree about duplicating the L1s. Those for the most part so far are run by suburban youth clubs in large metro areas making little or no effort to draw a regular crowd and keeping things "pro-am" so as not to interfere with NCAA eligibilities.

Put a team somewhere like Peterborough or Barrie and you have something that can be marketed locally as a spectator event and can start thinking about actually paying the players.

The way L1O is now configured with having to work your way through a reserve league and a second division to get to the top tier I suspect any new clubs like those two won't be happening very often, but hope I'm wrong. 

[SpursFlu]

I honestly hate these population arguments. They're so misleading. Vancouver gets the benefit of Maple Ridge but kelowna doesn't get the benefit of Vernon ans Penticton. Yet it's a quicker commute from the latter . Vancouver gets the benefit of Langley but Surrey doest get the benefit of Langley yet Langley and Surrey are basically the same community

The best statistic if it's so necessary to use a number is airport traffic. It's a better way of gaging a geographical area 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_busiest_airports_in_Canada

Edited August 25, 2023 by SpursFlu

[Kingston]

39 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

That definitely wasn't my point. What's important to bear in mind is that 2 or 3 examples aren't enough to sustain a league in a Canadian context and that the USL Championship along with the NASL a few years back hasn't had a 100% success rate with American markets of that sort of size either. 

It's not clear at the moment that there is even one market in western Canada where CanPL provides solid evidence that a USL Championship level of operations would have a shot at working long term without extremely patient ownership. Even Calgary would likely have to boost their regular home support quite a bit from what they are drawing now to make the numbers work. Far from impossible that will happen but no sure thing either. What happens if they start losing regularly, for example? The Edmonton experience shows that things do not always move inexorably in the direction you want them to.

Canada has 3 MLS franchises and the US with about ten times the population has closing in on 30. If the US is currently sustaining 24 clubs at the USL Championship level of budget, it was always a big ask to expect Canada to make a league with a similar level of operations fly in a minimum of 8 cities, particularly if the American experience that they would need to steer clear of MLS markets for the most part was going to be repeated in a Canadian context.

Your explanation is logical and it is certainly true that the CPL is not yet fully established.

Yes, it was always going to be a challenge to get eight cities with the three MLS markets already holding teams.  Although the proportionality you mention with the US is a factor, we do have the advantage that the CPL is in important Canadian cities.  It's going to be easier to attract Canadian sponsors for cities like Ottawa and Calgary than it is in the US for cities like Tulsa and  Charleston.  We're still in "A list" territory while the USL (aside from cities it shares with MLS teams) is mostly well into the "B list".

Also, needing eight teams is a glass half full/ half empty sort of thing.  We do need eight, but it's also only eight.  We currently have eight teams.  I can think of five more cities where the CPL would have a fighting chance.  That means we ultimately only need to succeed in 60% of the markets to make a go of things.  That's not bad.

[SpursFlu]

I really dont know why everyone entertains Ozzie_the_parrot. He's just found his niche in here tickling everyone's tits when I comes to the CPL. I remember he was adamant it would never happen in the first place and now he just entertains himself trolling the CPL no matter what the scenario. In 20 years if the CPL was the greatest league in the world he'd be putting it down saying it's not as good as the Saudi funded European Super league. He's not really being sincere but he's clearly good at getting under everyone's skin. I actually give him a lot of credit. He's oddly committed to it (not sure why) and he's very good at it

[Stanley]

11 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

He's oddly committed to it (not sure why) and he's very good at it

Decades of committment.

[SpursFlu]

1 minute ago, Stanley said:

Decades of committment.

Yah its wild. I remember arguing with him back before we even knew about the CPL. I think he's so pot committed there's just no turning back now

He reminds of the guy from that movie about the South African rugby team. He was just so angry and just identified so much as holding a certain position that he just couldn't bring himself to cheer for the team. Then he went outside to protest and he realized that he was alone and everyone else were out enjoying themselves together while he was standing alone being angry

[Stanley]

Just now, SpursFlu said:

Yah its wild. I remember arguing with him back before we even knew about the CPL. I think he's so pot committed there's just no turning back now

He reminds of the guy from that movie about the South African rugby team. He was just so angry and just identified so much as holding a certain position that he just couldn't bring himself to cheer for the team. Then he went outside to protest and he realized that he was alone and everyone else were out enjoying themselves together while he was standing alone being angry

I remember having run in's with him back i nthe early 2000s, so much that I had forgotten about them after a decade away from the boards.   Now I really don't care to much about that kind of stress.