Gold Cup 2023

[CanadianSoccerFan]

 

[VinceA]

36 minutes ago, Shway said:

Something needs to be done. 
Those nations are actually good, and could be even better than what they are today.

Concacaf and FIFA need to figure out a solution, because their eligibility issues need to make sense. How can one be eligible for 1 country in Concacaf and then eligible for another to FIFA.

Can someone explain how Puerto Rico is different? 

I think the difference is the USSF was cool with letting Puerto Rico be its own entity.

France isn't with their territories.

[Kent]

3 hours ago, maplebanana said:

Actually come to think of it, anyone know how the CONCACAF index is calculated? Paging @Kent

I tried for a bit to reverse engineer how it's done. They posted a formula, then they had a couple of variables that they didn't explain. They were "Probability of win" and "Probability of loss". They said it takes home/away into account, and rankings. I can't remember if it alluded to there being other criteria or not. No idea how important home field advantage is, or any of that. I was unsuccessful in figuring out how to calculate it. It might be possible for someone smarter than me to do so (I would include you in that crowd maplebanana!). If I were to try to tackle it again I would probably first focus on neutral site games to try to figure out how the difference in ranking is weighted. Then if you can predict neutral site ranking points, try to figure out what kind of factor you are off by for home/away games.

My notes have a tongue in cheek comment about non-FIFA teams having additional criteria, but I can't remember if that was actually alluded to by CONCACAF or if that was me thinking it was necessary. If it was me, I'm not sure why. Maybe for their starting ranking it felt hand wavey to me, but going forward I don't think they would need any special considerations. Here is the math for the formula that we do have.

Formula: P = K * (R – E)
P = Total number of points
K = Importance of the match (Friendly 17.5, CONCACAF match 35, World Cup 50)
R = Actual result of the match
E = Expected result of the match (E = P(win) - P(loss), where P(win) and P(loss) are the probabilities of a win and a loss, based on difference in ranking points and home field advantage)

This link to the procedure seems to be dead. https://concacaf-cloudinary.corebine.com/concacaf-production/image/upload/v1535044241/concacaf-prod/assets/Concacaf_Men_s_National_Team_Ranking_Overview.pdf

Edited June 21, 2023 by Kent

[Kent]

43 minutes ago, Shway said:

Something needs to be done. 
Those nations are actually good, and could be even better than what they are today.

Concacaf and FIFA need to figure out a solution, because their eligibility issues need to make sense. How can one be eligible for 1 country in Concacaf and then eligible for another to FIFA.

Can someone explain how Puerto Rico is different? 

I don't know if this is correct or not, but I feel like I have heard someone mention it being about the FFF (France's FA) running the show in all these countries.

[Kent]

43 minutes ago, Shway said:

Something needs to be done. 
Those nations are actually good, and could be even better than what they are today.

Concacaf and FIFA need to figure out a solution, because their eligibility issues need to make sense. How can one be eligible for 1 country in Concacaf and then eligible for another to FIFA.

Can someone explain how Puerto Rico is different? 

I don't know if this is correct or not, but I feel like I have heard someone mention it being about the FFF (France's FA) running the show in all these countries.

[maplebanana]

47 minutes ago, Kent said:

I tried for a bit to reverse engineer how it's done. They posted a formula, then they had a couple of variables that they didn't explain. They were "Probability of win" and "Probability of loss". They said it takes home/away into account, and rankings. I can't remember if it alluded to there being other criteria or not. No idea how important home field advantage is, or any of that. I was unsuccessful in figuring out how to calculate it. It might be possible for someone smarter than me to do so (I would include you in that crowd maplebanana!). If I were to try to tackle it again I would probably first focus on neutral site games to try to figure out how the difference in ranking is weighted. Then if you can predict neutral site ranking points, try to figure out what kind of factor you are off by for home/away games.

My notes have a tongue in cheek comment about non-FIFA teams having additional criteria, but I can't remember if that was actually alluded to by CONCACAF or if that was me thinking it was necessary. If it was me, I'm not sure why. Maybe for their starting ranking it felt hand wavey to me, but going forward I don't think they would need any special considerations. Here is the math for the formula that we do have.

Formula: P = K * (R – E)
P = Total number of points
K = Importance of the match (Friendly 17.5, CONCACAF match 35, World Cup 50)
R = Actual result of the match
E = Expected result of the match (E = P(win) - P(loss), where P(win) and P(loss) are the probabilities of a win and a loss, based on difference in ranking points and home field advantage)

This link to the procedure seems to be dead. https://concacaf-cloudinary.corebine.com/concacaf-production/image/upload/v1535044241/concacaf-prod/assets/Concacaf_Men_s_National_Team_Ranking_Overview.pdf

This sounds like a challenge I would enjoy taking on!

Do you know of anywhere I can find historical CONCACAF rankings? I can only see the current ones that were updated on 3/31/2023. If I had even 2 sets of historical rankings I could probably figure out the weighting factors based on the results. Based on their description of it being a zero sum game, I suspect the Expected result is calculated similar to the FIFA ratings which are Elo based. 

In the meantime I've screen capped the CONCACAF index for 3/31 and I assume it will be updated after the gold cup, so I'll have 2 data sets by then and I should figure out something.

[top cheese]

Senior players need some rest theybe been playing non stop

CF Montreal must not have released there players 

No Corbeaneau is weird but I'd imagine the staff is working with players who need to transfer clubs. 

[Cblake]

19 minutes ago, top cheese said:

Senior players need some rest theybe been playing non stop

CF Montreal must not have released there players 

No Corbeaneau is weird but I'd imagine the staff is working with players who need to transfer clubs. 

MTL would have had to release players if requested unless they got players on side in declining a callup. 

[TGAA_Star]

Canada vs Guadeloupe on the 27th at BMO Field for Gold Cup...here is hoping we fill up the stadium

[Obinna]

Just looked at the bracket and if we do the expected and top our group, we get runners up from group A, which will either be a stacked Jamaica with a new Everton recruit in their ranks, or a USMNT B squad. 

I am not convinced we'll get by either, and I fear the media spin will go into overdrive if we do not at least make the semi for the likely Mexico rematch. 

If we win this tournament, we are going to need some luck. Eustaquio is going to have to be the Lynch pin. The defense, which is largely unchanged, will need to be more dialed in then they were on Sunday. I mean, pick your poison: defend against the likes of Antonio, Bailey and Grey, which is literally a Premier League level front line, or go against top level MLS attackers. Either way, won't be easy.

Up front, I don't know where the goals will come from. Maybe JRR explodes onto the scene, perhaps Cavallini rediscovers his form. Maybe Liam Millar pulls a Tajon Buchanan. All of this is possible, but none of it is guaranteed. Hoilett will chip in with a few goals, but who is going to be the main offensive threat? Hard to say. 

[TGAA_Star]

Canada should top this group and I hope we do but after we made it to the Nations League Final and lost, the expectation is get to the Gold Cup Final at the very least or even winning it. But after losing that Final, we have a chance at redemption.

[trc2014]

12 hours ago, CanadaFan123 said:

3 guys on teams in top 5 leagues compared to our 0. So according to Herdman we’ll be totally outclassed. 

Aside from Gravillon, who am I missing?  He is the only guy I see in a top 5 league.

[Shway]

Tbh I wanted and expected that we would see Vitoria and Borjan take this tournament off for various reasons. I also felt that there positions were covered, and that we need to start phasing them out with the future.

So now I feel like our testing/experimenting will be impacted because of the obligation to play those two when we have guys that need the opportunities.

Because I don’t think we have a chance at all to win this tournament. It’s purpose will be determining the depth for Copa America.

[CanadaFan123]

16 minutes ago, trc2014 said:

Aside from Gravillon, who am I missing?  He is the only guy I see in a top 5 league.

Alphonse and Avinel played in Ligue 1 this season. 

[seanwae]

10 hours ago, Shway said:

Something needs to be done. 
Those nations are actually good, and could be even better than what they are today.

Concacaf and FIFA need to figure out a solution, because their eligibility issues need to make sense. How can one be eligible for 1 country in Concacaf and then eligible for another to FIFA.

Can someone explain how Puerto Rico is different? 

Guadeloupe, Martinique, French Guiana, Reunion & Mayotte are departments of France, not territories. They're like Hawaii, not Puerto Rico.

[CanadaFan123]

4 minutes ago, seanwae said:

Guadeloupe, Martinique, French Guiana, Reunion & Mayotte are departments of France, not territories. They're like Hawaii, not Puerto Rico.

If Gibraltar, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland can have FIFA status I think we’re splitting hairs in not allowing the same in this instance. Particularly as they’re in another confederation altogether they can’t have their cake and eat it too. Either they’re a country or not. If they’re not a country they shouldn’t be competing internationally at all. 

[Shway]

23 minutes ago, CanadaFan123 said:

If Gibraltar, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland can have FIFA status I think we’re splitting hairs in not allowing the same in this instance. Particularly as they’re in another confederation altogether they can’t have their cake and eat it too. Either they’re a country or not. If they’re not a country they shouldn’t be competing internationally at all. 

This is spot on.

I think a petition needs to be started or hard questions to be asked…because ultimately Concacaf is being hindered at the FIFA level at the expense of a UEFA member. It’s stupid seeing the France flag during games or promotion. 

They need to make it make sense. 

[Metro]

47 minutes ago, seanwae said:

Guadeloupe, Martinique, French Guiana, Reunion & Mayotte are departments of France, not territories. They're like Hawaii, not Puerto Rico.

They can vote in French elections?

They have access to the same civil rights and social services as the French in France do?

Just curious.

[VinceA]

51 minutes ago, CanadaFan123 said:

If Gibraltar, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland can have FIFA status I think we’re splitting hairs in not allowing the same in this instance. Particularly as they’re in another confederation altogether they can’t have their cake and eat it too. Either they’re a country or not. If they’re not a country they shouldn’t be competing internationally at all. 

Weren't they grandfathered in because their FAs are older than FIFA? 

Either way FIFA has their rules that they can choose to follow or not and we can speculate all we want on stuff but we can't change any of it.

At this point complaining about the non-FIFA CONCACAF teams is beating a dead horse.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

25 minutes ago, Metro said:

They can vote in French elections?

They have access to the same civil rights and social services as the French in France do?

Just curious.

Totally integrated into France in constitutional terms unlike Puerto Rico where the United States is concerned.

Edited June 21, 2023 by Ozzie_the_parrot

[Obinna]

1 hour ago, Shway said:

Tbh I wanted and expected that we would see Vitoria and Borjan take this tournament off for various reasons. I also felt that there positions were covered, and that we need to start phasing them out with the future.

So now I feel like our testing/experimenting will be impacted because of the obligation to play those two when we have guys that need the opportunities.

Because I don’t think we have a chance at all to win this tournament. It’s purpose will be determining the depth for Copa America.

I don't know if I would go as far as saying we don't have a chance at all, but I would say it's far less likely than our NL chances. We probably have the 4th best squad behind USA, Jamaica, and Mexico. I think we are a distant 4th though as far as our chances go, because we have to get past all 3 no matter how you cut it, unless one of these teams slips up. Can we beat 3 of these teams in knockout games? Yes. Do I see that happening? Not at all. Hope I am wrong, though.

As for the depth build, I think it's an okay balance. I don't mind Borjan and Vitoria and think our backline can use the continuity. I am far more disappointed with Spoony over Choniere in midfield. I don't like the Nelson exclusion either. He gets to focus on club, fine, but he's someone with enough talent that he should be integrated more quickly into the NT, basically immediately (thought he should have been in the NL team, actually). He should be able to leave Rosenberg and come back without issue, but that's me as a fan looking at it. Clearly him and Herdman thought it best to stay.

McGraw, ZBG, Loturi, Zator, JRR, Schaffleburg, Ahmed (which I haven't seen play unbelievably) will all get solid minutes. That's a pretty good depth build. Bombito may get some looks too. That's better rotation than last edition, at least.

Edited June 21, 2023 by Obinna

[Obinna]

I think we start our regulars in the back for the most part, but I still see McGraw getting 2 caps in the group stage, Bombito getting 1 or 2 caps in the GS. I see Zator and ZBG getting 1 to 2 caps in the GS.

Then I think the knockouts will be all about Adekugbe, Miller, Vitoria, Laryea, and Kennedy - the trusted guys. Maybe one of the new guys proves themselves and starts, but that's for them to earn. The subs will be as needed rather than premeditated, which I see us doing in the GS, since on paper that should be comfortable. 

This is good because we need to go far in this tournament. Vitoria especially helps with that.

Edited June 21, 2023 by Obinna

[Kent]

11 hours ago, maplebanana said:

This sounds like a challenge I would enjoy taking on!

Do you know of anywhere I can find historical CONCACAF rankings? I can only see the current ones that were updated on 3/31/2023. If I had even 2 sets of historical rankings I could probably figure out the weighting factors based on the results. Based on their description of it being a zero sum game, I suspect the Expected result is calculated similar to the FIFA ratings which are Elo based. 

In the meantime I've screen capped the CONCACAF index for 3/31 and I assume it will be updated after the gold cup, so I'll have 2 data sets by then and I should figure out something.

I couldn't find historical rankings either, but I did capture the first couple sets from February (I think 28th) and April 2018. Pasted below, hopefully it comes out readable.

		February	April
Rank	Country	Points
1	Mexico	2116	2105
2	USA	1847	1871
3	Costa Rica	1625	1623
4	Honduras	1612	1598
5	Canada	1540	1554
6	Jamaica	1555	1545
7	Panama	1508	1516
8	Haiti	1484	1488
9	Guatemala	1423	1436
10	El Salvador	1399	1379
11	Martinique	1315	1315
12	Curacao	1211	1253
13	T&T	1224	1227
14	Suriname	1048	1067
15	Cuba	1098	1058
16	Guadeloupe	1036	1036
17	Bermuda	1034	1031
18	French Guiana	1019	1019
19	Guyana	985	979
20	Nicaragua	946	960
21	Grenada	963	958
22	St. Kitts and Nevis	906	957
23	Antigua and Barbuda	931	935
24	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	917	910
25	Dominican Republic	871	893
26	Belize	816	831
27	Bonaire	718	718
28	Montserrat	672	714
29	Barbados	691	711
30	St. Lucia	709	709
31	Puerto Rico	656	654
32	Dominica	622	603
33	Bahamas	611	569
34	Cayman Islands	534	525
35	Aruba	519	495
36	Turks and Caicos	497	452
37	Saint Martin	388	388
38	Sint Maarten	296	296
39	US Virgin Islands	304	283
40	British Virgin Islands	184	174
41	Anguilla	187	171

[maplebanana]

43 minutes ago, Kent said:

I couldn't find historical rankings either, but I did capture the first couple sets from February (I think 28th) and April 2018. Pasted below, hopefully it comes out readable.

 

		February	April
Rank	Country	Points
1	Mexico	2116	2105
2	USA	1847	1871
3	Costa Rica	1625	1623
4	Honduras	1612	1598
5	Canada	1540	1554
6	Jamaica	1555	1545
7	Panama	1508	1516
8	Haiti	1484	1488
9	Guatemala	1423	1436
10	El Salvador	1399	1379
11	Martinique	1315	1315
12	Curacao	1211	1253
13	T&T	1224	1227
14	Suriname	1048	1067
15	Cuba	1098	1058
16	Guadeloupe	1036	1036
17	Bermuda	1034	1031
18	French Guiana	1019	1019
19	Guyana	985	979
20	Nicaragua	946	960
21	Grenada	963	958
22	St. Kitts and Nevis	906	957
23	Antigua and Barbuda	931	935
24	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	917	910
25	Dominican Republic	871	893
26	Belize	816	831
27	Bonaire	718	718
28	Montserrat	672	714
29	Barbados	691	711
30	St. Lucia	709	709
31	Puerto Rico	656	654
32	Dominica	622	603
33	Bahamas	611	569
34	Cayman Islands	534	525
35	Aruba	519	495
36	Turks and Caicos	497	452
37	Saint Martin	388	388
38	Sint Maarten	296	296
39	US Virgin Islands	304	283
40	British Virgin Islands	184	174
41	Anguilla	187	171

This is good stuff. Thanks! Just quickly looking, Canada gained 14 pts in that window with a 1-0 neutral site win over NZ. That seems like a lot of pts compared to FIFA rating, which has a max of 10 pts for friendlies.

[Kent]

1 hour ago, maplebanana said:

This is good stuff. Thanks! Just quickly looking, Canada gained 14 pts in that window with a 1-0 neutral site win over NZ. That seems like a lot of pts compared to FIFA rating, which has a max of 10 pts for friendlies.

Ah, that reminded me what my snarky comment in my notes meant. I was thinking it was about teams like Guadeloupe and French Guiana, that are CONCACAF nations but not FIFA nations. It was actually directed towards FIFA nations that aren't in CONCACAF. What the heck is New Zealand's CONCACAF ranking points? Do they just use FIFA points in the absence of CONCACAF points and presume they are weighted the same? That would make Argentina an underdog against USA and Mexico. So that can't be it. Or maybe they use FIFA points for both teams if there is a non-CONCACAF team involved, and then just apply those points to the CONCACAF set of points?