2016-2018 CANMNT: Where are they now, and What to Expect in 2026

[InglewoodJack]

If I had time to run it, I would be interested in a prospect ranking poll. Top 25, everyone votes for their #1 prospect, then we keep removing names from the list until we hit 25. Would take someone who has the patience to create 25 different threads though.

[dyslexic nam]

11 minutes ago, InglewoodJack said:

If I had time to run it, I would be interested in a prospect ranking poll. Top 25, everyone votes for their #1 prospect, then we keep removing names from the list until we hit 25. Would take someone who has the patience to create 25 different threads though.

It seems like this was done a year or two ago via a poll at the start of a thread - but I could be misremembering.  

[decma]

36 minutes ago, Kusch to the Corner said:

If you ever come across that paper again, I'd be interested in reading it.

I'm no proponent of a 48 team world cup, but I do have a stats background, and they way I've looked at it, the chances of "dodgy" happenings in a 3 team group with both a top 16 ranked team and a 33-48 ranked team in it are remote.

I'd be interested in seeing another opinion though.

Not sure if this is the paper 74 Whitecap was referencing, but I think it covers the topic.

 

https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-sports-analytics/jsa200414

 

Abstract

In 2026, the FIFA World Cup will for the first time gather 48 men’s national teams. It will consist of a group stage made of 16 groups of three, with the best two teams in each group advancing to the knockout stage. Using groups of three raises several fairness issues, including the risk of match fixing and schedule imbalance. In this article we examine the risk of collusion. The two teams who play the last game in the group know exactly what results will let them advance to the knockout stage. Risk of match fixing occurs when a result qualifies both of them at the expense of the third team of the group, and can seriously tarnish the tournament. We quantify how often this is expected to happen and explain how to build the match schedule so as to minimize the risk of collusion. We also quantify how the risk of collusion depends on competitive balance. Moreover, we show that forbidding draws during the group stage (a rule considered by FIFA) does not eliminate the risk of match fixing, and that, surprisingly, the 3-2-1-0 point system does not do a better job at decreasing the risk of collusion than the 3-0 point system. Finally we describe alternate formats for a 48-team World Cup that would eliminate or strongly decrease the risk of collusion.

[Sal333]

4 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

 

The notable thing with defenders is that they also seem to be more productive after they peak than before they peak   Thus a defender one or two years after peak is generally better than they were one or two years prior to peak  

That sounds like a lot of mumble jumble. Defenders are better two or three years after their peak? Huh? So what's a peak? 

[Bison44]

To the people who cant see where the guys are going to come from.....look back a little.  in 2019 gold cup only 3 years ago, Johnston, Miller, Lareya, Buchanon were either in college or just struggling to get min in MLS.  Kone was in PLSQ and not even in the picture.  

So I dont think its a stretch that there are 1-2 college kids, 1-2 getting little min in MLS and a high schooler right now that could turn into a starter for CMNT by 2026.  Just for shits and giggles, lets say, Malcolm Johnston, Oyegunle (syracuse), JRR, Justin smith and just for his dad.. mateo Bunbury could all be starters for us next go round. It could happen, cause it just did happen eh??   

[dyslexic nam]

5 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

That sounds like a lot of mumble jumble. Defenders are better two or three years after their peak? Huh? So what's a peak? 

Yeah, read what I wrote more carefully.  The years after their peak are better than the years before their peak.  Thus if they peak at 27, a defender at 28 or 29 is generally going to be better than they were at 25 or 26.  It is the nature of the position.  

Edited December 2, 2022 by dyslexic nam

[Corazon]

56 minutes ago, Bison44 said:

To the people who cant see where the guys are going to come from.....look back a little.  in 2019 gold cup only 3 years ago, Johnston, Miller, Lareya, Buchanon were either in college or just struggling to get min in MLS.  Kone was in PLSQ and not even in the picture.  

So I dont think its a stretch that there are 1-2 college kids, 1-2 getting little min in MLS and a high schooler right now that could turn into a starter for CMNT by 2026.  Just for shits and giggles, lets say, Malcolm Johnston, Oyegunle (syracuse), JRR, Justin smith and just for his dad.. mateo Bunbury could all be starters for us next go round. It could happen, cause it just did happen eh??   

There are still so many unknowns.  Even though Eustaquio was not on our radar in 2018, he was just moving from 4th division Portuguese side Torreense to 2nd division side Leixoes.  Fast forward to 4 years later and he's balling out for the "16th" best club in Europe.

[InglewoodJack]

1 hour ago, Bison44 said:

To the people who cant see where the guys are going to come from.....look back a little.  in 2019 gold cup only 3 years ago, Johnston, Miller, Lareya, Buchanon were either in college or just struggling to get min in MLS.  Kone was in PLSQ and not even in the picture.  

So I dont think its a stretch that there are 1-2 college kids, 1-2 getting little min in MLS and a high schooler right now that could turn into a starter for CMNT by 2026.  Just for shits and giggles, lets say, Malcolm Johnston, Oyegunle (syracuse), JRR, Justin smith and just for his dad.. mateo Bunbury could all be starters for us next go round. It could happen, cause it just did happen eh??   

I've been hearing Malcolm Johnston's name a lot this past while. Is he any good, or is it the AJ connection? I think alistair said that his younger brother is way better than he was at that age, but aside from that bicycle kick video from a few months back, I don't know much about him.

[74 Whitecap]

1 hour ago, decma said:

Not sure if this is the paper 74 Whitecap was referencing, but I think it covers the topic.

 

https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-sports-analytics/jsa200414

 

Abstract

In 2026, the FIFA World Cup will for the first time gather 48 men’s national teams. It will consist of a group stage made of 16 groups of three, with the best two teams in each group advancing to the knockout stage. Using groups of three raises several fairness issues, including the risk of match fixing and schedule imbalance. In this article we examine the risk of collusion. The two teams who play the last game in the group know exactly what results will let them advance to the knockout stage. Risk of match fixing occurs when a result qualifies both of them at the expense of the third team of the group, and can seriously tarnish the tournament. We quantify how often this is expected to happen and explain how to build the match schedule so as to minimize the risk of collusion. We also quantify how the risk of collusion depends on competitive balance. Moreover, we show that forbidding draws during the group stage (a rule considered by FIFA) does not eliminate the risk of match fixing, and that, surprisingly, the 3-2-1-0 point system does not do a better job at decreasing the risk of collusion than the 3-0 point system. Finally we describe alternate formats for a 48-team World Cup that would eliminate or strongly decrease the risk of collusion.

Yes, that is the one, thanks. I always figured the 3 team group would cause problems, but reading the paper really brings the point home how bad/common it could be.

[Bison44]

41 minutes ago, InglewoodJack said:

I've been hearing Malcolm Johnston's name a lot this past while. Is he any good, or is it the AJ connection? I think alistair said that his younger brother is way better than he was at that age, but aside from that bicycle kick video from a few months back, I don't know much about him.

I think I might have heard about him at the roughly same time as Allistar, definately before the elder got drafted.  Top drawer NCAA site had him as a top freshman in 2019 when Alistar was a senior at Wake. CM who has done quite a bit of scoring and Maryland is a top program.  But I just pulled all those names out of my ass, cause who knows which guys will take off like rockets (Alistar/Kone and who flames out Boakai/Tabla)

[RJB]

10 hours ago, Sal333 said:

How many of those type of players do you realistically think will emerge? One? Two? Three, at most? And will these "three" players be of World Cup caliber?

Looking at this team objectively how many players going into 2026 are of World Cup class right now? Eustaquio, Davies, David and Buchanan., maybe Crepeau.

How many may develop into World Cup caliber in 2026? Kone, Johnston,  St Clair.

That's seven maybe eight players. We need another five or six at least. Mainly at the CB and midfield - especially at the attacking midfield position. 

Looking at our known prospects how many can we realistically see coming up that will fill those gaps - a term used by Herdman? Koleosho, Jebbison and Corbeanu don't really help because they step into positions of strength. We need CBs and midfielders.

How many surprises can we realistically expect, Players that will come out of nowhere like Johnston and Buchanan. One, two?

And to complicate matters, will Herdman learn from the tactical mistakes he made?

Off the top of my head: Eustaquio, David, Johnston, K Miller, Laryea, Fraser, Kone, Buchanan, Ugbo.

Pretty awesome to have another batch like them come through. All of those players debuted for Canada AFTER the 2018 world cup. 

[TGAA_Star]

Seeing the 2026 projected depth chart and seeing the ages of our players going into 2026, our team is going to get older and honestly we need to bring in more younger players so then that way we will have that perfect mix of youth and experience. But that being said if Atiba is gone then I would give captaincy to Osorio for 2026 because he'll be 34. So he'll most likely be playing in his last World Cup too on home soil so that's why I would give it to him. But we also need to bring in more dual Nationals as well.

[sonic_fcpf]

On 12/2/2022 at 1:52 PM, RJB said:

The big thing for me is to keep reminding myself that there are players that will play in 2026 - and play a big role - that haven't been capped yet.  They may not have played professionally.  They may not know how to drive right now!  

Agree. Below you can see the players with more minutes in WC2018 Concacaf qualifying. How many of those are there today ?....Similar will happen for 2026...

[Markoaleks]

We also need to expect a bit of short term regression in the short term as new players are brought in to the team, and tougher friendly opponents are scheduled too. IMO, a normal part of the process. 
Clearly die hards populate this forum will get this as part of the process but some of the “newish” fans may not understand it when they see results versus other perceived weaker teams 

[dyslexic nam]

3 hours ago, sonic_fcpf said:

Agree. Below you can see the players with more minutes in WC2018 Concacaf qualifying. How many of those are there today ?....Similar will happen for 2026...

I get the point but I don’t think it is fair to say that something “similar” will happen in 2026.  Our best core players are mostly young.  Many of the guys in that graphic were already approaching the end of their careers.  JdG, Marcel deJong, Straith, Jakovic, Johnson, Ledgerwood, Ricketts - almost all of those guys were staring at retirement or significant downgrades at the end of the last cycle.  Literally the only young player on that team was Larin.   That doesn’t match our current situation where tons of starters for this WC are much younger than those guys were in 2016.  We may see some turnover, and a few of our guys are clearly looking at the possibility of international retirement (Atiba, Milan, Hoilett, Oso and Vitoria) but a lot of our turnover should be due to a new young player staking a claim rather than our current core aging out.  

[sonic_fcpf]

7 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

I get the point but I don’t think it is fair to say that something “similar” will happen in 2026.  Our best core players are mostly young.  Many of the guys in that graphic were already approaching the end of their careers.  JdG, Marcel deJong, Straith, Jakovic, Johnson, Ledgerwood, Ricketts - almost all of those guys were staring at retirement or significant downgrades at the end of the last cycle.  Literally the only young player on that team was Larin.   That doesn’t match our current situation where tons of starters for this WC are much younger than those guys were in 2016.  We may see some turnover, and a few of our guys are clearly looking at the possibility of international retirement (Atiba, Milan, Hoilett, Oso and Vitoria) but a lot of our turnover should be due to a new young player staking a claim rather than our current core aging out.  

I agree that will not have the same extension and probably "similar" is not the  right word..... but we will see some new young players coming on board and probably some will make core players today not look like so core by that time....and if that happens will be a very good sign. One of the good things of the actual generation is that changed the perception of the Canadian player worldwide and we should see many more players developing in competitive environments.

 

[TGAA_Star]

12 groups of 4; top 2 advance that would be 24 teams plus 8 best 3rd place sides go into Round of 32 seems pretty fair to me

[narduch]

Everybody hated the best 3rd place system when it was 24 teams.

Now they want to bring it back?

[Approve My Account Pls]

2 hours ago, narduch said:

Everybody hated the best 3rd place system when it was 24 teams.

Now they want to bring it back?

I think it's a lesser of two evils, we just haven't had a chance to hate on 3 team groups properly yet

[decma]

I like the last format proposal in the paper.

16 groups of 3, followed by eight groups of four.

After the initial group stage (two games for each team), the bottom team from each group is dropped, and the top two from each group advance into new merged groups, with results against other advancing teams carrying through. Because results carry through, each team has incentive to win on match day 3. And after that point there are eight merged groups with four teams each, so its like the current format.

 Format 7: 16 groups of three, followed by eight groups of 4. The 16 groups of three are paired, e.g., Group A is paired with Group B, Group C with Group D, etc. The best two teams in each group advance to a second group stage. Teams advancing from paired groups form a group of four, and the results of the matches played during the first group stage are carried over. For example, the winner (denoted A1) and runner-up (A2) of Group A form a group of four with the winner (B1) and runner-up (B2) of Group B, and the results of the games A1–A2 and B1–B2 are carried over, so the second group stage has only four games played over two match days (for example A1–B1 and A2–B2 on Match Day 1, and A1–B2 and A2–B1 on Match Day 2. The best two teams in each group of four advance to the round of 16. Since results of the first group stage are carried over, teams have no incentive to collude. There would be 48 games during the first group stage, 32 games during the second group stage, and 16 knockout games, for a total of 96 games. The winner would play eight games, one more than in the current format and the format suggested by FIFA. Since three match days are needed for the first group stage, and two match days for the second group stage, the tournament would last at least one more week.