2016-2018 CANMNT: Where are they now, and What to Expect in 2026

[narduch]

1 minute ago, jonovision said:

What do they do with 12 groups of 4? How do the knockout rounds work?

Fifa is stupid and has not thought this through 

[Bison44]

Oh FIFA has thought it through...it makes tons of cents...$$$$$$$$.  

[kacbru]

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/dec/01/world-cup-organisers-consider-ditching-three-team-group-format-for-2026 

Here they say 12 groups of 4 with top two, plus 8 best 3rd place finishers moving on to the round of 32.

[74 Whitecap]

Just now, kacbru said:

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/dec/01/world-cup-organisers-consider-ditching-three-team-group-format-for-2026 

Here they say 12 groups of 4 with top two, plus 8 best 3rd place finishers moving on to the round of 32.

Another option would be 12 groups of 4, top 8 group winners get a bye, 4 remaining group winners and 12 second place teams play a preliminary round of 16, winners take on the 8 group winners in the 'true' round of 16. That would preserve more meaningful group games (fewer teams chilling, with no work left to be done, France style, for their final game), and reduce somewhat the number of matches to be played.

If they do 3 team groups, I guess they will do it only once. I remember reading an academic paper on the number of potentially dodgy matches in 3 team groups and it is really high, surprisingly (to me at least) so.

[Unnamed Trialist]

4 hours ago, 74 Whitecap said:

Another option would be 12 groups of 4, top 8 group winners get a bye, 4 remaining group winners and 12 second place teams play a preliminary round of 16, winners take on the 8 group winners in the 'true' round of 16. That would preserve more meaningful group games (fewer teams chilling, with no work left to be done, France style, for their final game), and reduce somewhat the number of matches to be played.

If they do 3 team groups, I guess they will do it only once. I remember reading an academic paper on the number of potentially dodgy matches in 3 team groups and it is really high, surprisingly (to me at least) so.

Good idea, and more so since the delay between games would be minimal. You have some teams playing their R16 matches this WC with 2 full days rest, too little (maybe they figured travel is negligible). So it wouldn't be like MLS, where you gift conference winners 2 weeks to get off track. Group winners would get a week. 

You'd also be partially respecting this principle of a 7-match WC, if it really is a concern.

Edited December 2, 2022 by Unnamed Trialist

[dyslexic nam]

I can’t see FIFA setting up a system whereby a team could win their group and still get bounced before the true next round of the competition via some sort of limited half-round.  The WC doesn’t seem like then sort of competitions where byes would be utilized.  

[RJB]

The big thing for me is to keep reminding myself that there are players that will play in 2026 - and play a big role - that haven't been capped yet.  They may not have played professionally.  They may not know how to drive right now!  

Edited December 2, 2022 by RJB

[Sal333]

37 minutes ago, RJB said:

The big thing for me is to keep reminding myself that there are players that will play in 2026 - and play a big role - that haven't been capped yet.  They may not have played professionally.  They may not know how to drive right now!  

How many of those type of players do you realistically think will emerge? One? Two? Three, at most? And will these "three" players be of World Cup caliber?

Looking at this team objectively how many players going into 2026 are of World Cup class right now? Eustaquio, Davies, David and Buchanan., maybe Crepeau.

How many may develop into World Cup caliber in 2026? Kone, Johnston,  St Clair.

That's seven maybe eight players. We need another five or six at least. Mainly at the CB and midfield - especially at the attacking midfield position. 

Looking at our known prospects how many can we realistically see coming up that will fill those gaps - a term used by Herdman? Koleosho, Jebbison and Corbeanu don't really help because they step into positions of strength. We need CBs and midfielders.

How many surprises can we realistically expect, Players that will come out of nowhere like Johnston and Buchanan. One, two?

And to complicate matters, will Herdman learn from the tactical mistakes he made?

Edited December 2, 2022 by Sal333

[dyslexic nam]

I think some (“you people!”) are underestimating the next 4 years of development for our core talent or prospects.  In the summer of 2026:

Davies is 25

David is 26

Buchanan is 27

Staq is 29

Kone is 24

Johnston is 28

Miller is 29 

Kennedy is 29

Those are our marquis players (or potential marquis player WRT Kone) and some solid contributors (or potential contributors) in their prime years.   It is reasonable to assume that literally all of those guys will be better players than they were this cycle   All will have more experience and none will have “aged out”  of prime productivity.  It is one of the advantages of our young team - they will continue to develop into better and better footballers.   It would be silly to think that someone with Davies’ skill and physical attributes would peak at 21.  And similar to the rest.  David is still learning how to do different things as a striker.  Buchanan is improving all the time.  Staq has continued progressing into a starter for Porto.  And Kone went from being an amateur to not looking out of place in the WC in just over a year (!).  Etc.

Yes it will be important to add more quality pieces, and yes we still seem to have a defensive gap that needs to be addressed, but we are a predominantly young team (literally two players skewed our average age in this WC) with tons of growth potential.

Mark my words - we are going to make an impact on the 2026 WC. 

Edited December 2, 2022 by dyslexic nam

[youllneverwalkalone]

10 hours ago, kacbru said:

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/dec/01/world-cup-organisers-consider-ditching-three-team-group-format-for-2026 

Here they say 12 groups of 4 with top two, plus 8 best 3rd place finishers moving on to the round of 32.

That's good. I thought they would keep it simple and go 16 groups, winners go through. Naive me though, that's a lot less $$$

[jonovision]

8 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

I think some (“you people!”) are underestimating the next 4 years of development for our core talent or prospects.  In the summer of 2026:

Davies is 25

David is 26

Buchanan is 27

Staq is 29

Kone is 24

Johnston is 28

Miller is 29 

Kennedy is 29

 

I know individual cases vary, but prime performance age for footballers is 25-27 years old. So there's a good chance that we are currently seeing the best, or close to it, of players like Eustaquio, Miller, Johnston, Kennedy, etc.

[jonovision]

5 minutes ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

That's good. I thought they would keep it simple and go 16 groups, winners go through. Naive me though, that's a lot less $$$

I always thought that with groups of 3 the top 2 were to advance. Otherwise a 48-team WC has the same number of total games as a 32 team cup, kind of defeating the purpose ($).

[dyslexic nam]

2 minutes ago, jonovision said:

I know individual cases vary, but prime performance age for footballers is 25-27 years old. So there's a good chance that we are currently seeing the best, or close to it, of players like Eustaquio, Miller, Johnston, Kennedy, etc.

I think defenders tend to have slightly different peak years so I don’t think that is true for 3 of the 4 you named.  

[jonovision]

Just now, dyslexic nam said:

I think defenders tend to have slightly different peak years so I don’t think that is true for 3 of the 4 you named.  

For European players, 27 is the peak age for defenders.

[youllneverwalkalone]

 

13 minutes ago, jonovision said:

I know individual cases vary, but prime performance age for footballers is 25-27 years old. So there's a good chance that we are currently seeing the best, or close to it, of players like Eustaquio, Miller, Johnston, Kennedy, etc.

I agree in general, but I think our issue was not so much talent level as it was experience. It's not exactly fair to compare our top 5 league players to xyz because MLS fancies itself a top 10 league and won't always let players move when they are ready.

I think the bigger issue is we need to get battle tested. We didn't get prime Mexico, Honduras, CR, etc. We have to beat those sides in Nations League, win that and/or the Gold Cup, and go to Copa and win a game. I also agree with the post you quoted in terms of new talent emerging. None of our core were really in place in 2018. But there will also be fewer opportunities to break in -where I also agree with Sal. I can't see three guys the level of Buchanan, Johnston, and Miller just strolling into the 11. I'd love to be wrong though.

Edited December 2, 2022 by youllneverwalkalone

[dyslexic nam]

3 minutes ago, jonovision said:

For European players, 27 is the peak age for defenders.

Having guys 1 or 2 years past absolute peak isn’t a big deal to me.  It is a projected peak, not the edge of a cliff.  

I also think that metric oversimplifies our specific situation.  Johnston got his pro debut in Aug of 2020.  I think it is safe to assume that he will be a better player after playing for Celtic for the next few years that he is after 2 years of pro experience.  When you factor in the team’s prime productivity out wide and a WRT a guy like JD, I am still optimistic. 

[dyslexic nam]

This is an article in the Athletic that delved into this.  A few things I would note:

"Centre-backs also peak relatively late, at around 27, with plenty of players featuring heavily in their late 20s and early 30s."

"As shown in the take-ons example previously, wingers and wide attackers hit their peak earlier, reaching the height of their powers around 26."
 

The notable thing with defenders is that they also seem to be more productive after they peak than before they peak   Thus a defender one or two years after peak is generally better than they were one or two years prior to peak   This also applies to central midfield.  That is why I am still confident we will have SOME solid defensive options playing better than they are now.

 

https://theathletic.com/2935360/2021/11/15/what-age-do-players-in-different-positions-peak/

Edited December 2, 2022 by dyslexic nam

[jonovision]

30 minutes ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

 

I agree in general, but I think our issue was not so much talent level as it was experience. It's not exactly fair to compare our top 5 league players to xyz because MLS fancies itself a top 10 league and won't always let players move when they are ready.

I think the bigger issue is we need to get battle tested. We didn't get prime Mexico, Honduras, CR, etc. We have to beat those sides in Nations League, win that and/or the Gold Cup, and go to Copa and win a game. I also agree with the post you quoted in terms of new talent emerging. None of our core were really in place in 2018. But there will also be fewer opportunities to break in -where I also agree with Sal. I can't see three guys the level of Buchanan, Johnston, and Miller just strolling into the 11. I'd love to be wrong though.

I didn't say this in my post, but my big concern, as is most of ours, is CBs. The guys we have (Johnston and Miller) aren't likely to make huge leaps, while it's not common for a youngster of Kone or Davies' age to play a big role at a WC finals at CB (which makes a guy like Gvardiol for Croatia so exceptional and valuable).

Any improvement in defense will have to come as much from tactics and coaching as from individual improvements.

[youllneverwalkalone]

3 minutes ago, jonovision said:

I didn't say this in my post, but my big concern, as is most of ours, is CBs. The guys we have (Johnston and Miller) aren't likely to make huge leaps, while it's not common for a youngster of Kone or Davies' age to play a big role at a WC finals at CB (which makes a guy like Gvardiol for Croatia so exceptional and valuable).

Any improvement in defense will have to come as much from tactics and coaching as from individual improvements.

Yeah, Miller has probably hit his ceiling and Johnston is not a CB. Can Tomori switch back under the new rules by 2026. Looks like he's still only on 3 caps with England.

[Jack1997]

1 hour ago, dyslexic nam said:

Kennedy is 29

Kennedy is a guy everyone seems to forget about, he’s a guy playing really well in bundesliga 2 who looks prime for a Bundesliga move. He is fast, ok on the ball and good enough defensively. I think if we have him in his prime in 2026 being a regular Bundesliga CB and then all you really need is 1 of Smith, Knight-Lebel, Campagana, Yao, Kooner to workout and become a quality CB which I think is likely and then you have Miller, Kennedy, one of the young guys and Cornelius as a core 4 CBs in 2026 that doesn’t sound too bad to me.

[kingvikingstad]

One thing I'd throw into the mix.

Our talent pipeline is not as known and linear as other nations. We are only now starting to build the infrastructure to find and nurture talent. And yet, there are still the Kones/Davids/Johnstons of the world who fall between the cracks for a while.

As a result, it may be harder to project our future talent pool when compared to England or even the US who have funded youth setups and several professional academies.

Additionally, because they aren't being heavily coached and brought through professional environments, they may meet their peaks in a different way. Buchanon is a good example, as his development has been exponential since joining MLS, and then Brugge.

I would guess it's very likely we have 2-3 players who are pushing into our 2026 WC roster who are fairly unknown to most of us at this point - either because they are playing in the NCAA, or try their luck overseas after being overlooked by our MLS academies.

Last thing - our playing in the World Cup may push some of those who have been overlooked to try their luck overseas!

Edited December 2, 2022 by kingvikingstad

[dyslexic nam]

12 minutes ago, Jack1997 said:

Kennedy is a guy everyone seems to forget about, he’s a guy playing really well in bundesliga 2 who looks prime for a Bundesliga move. He is fast, ok on the ball and good enough defensively. I think if we have him in his prime in 2026 being a regular Bundesliga CB and then all you really need is 1 of Smith, Knight-Lebel, Campagana, Yao, Kooner to workout and become a quality CB which I think is likely and then you have Miller, Kennedy, one of the young guys and Cornelius as a core 4 CBs in 2026 that doesn’t sound too bad to me.

I will also throw Belal Halbouni into that list.   Two big factors against it - it just blew out his ACL this summer and he accepted call up’s from Syria for friendlies.   But he is not yet cap tied (AFAIK) and I don’t think he would have to wait for any eligibility period because they were just friendlies (ie. I think his one time switch would be immediate - though others know those rules better than I).  As long as he comes back sting from his injury (and lots do) he would be a 26 yr old CB.  I think he was playing Bundesliga prior to his injury so he is certainly on track to be part of our pool (recognizing the obvious caveats).  

[phresh]

10 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

I will also throw Belal Halbouni into that list.   Two big factors against it - it just blew out his ACL this summer and he accepted call up’s from Syria for friendlies.   But he is not yet cap tied (AFAIK) and I don’t think he would have to wait for any eligibility period because they were just friendlies (ie. I think his one time switch would be immediate - though others know those rules better than I).  As long as he comes back sting from his injury (and lots do) he would be a 26 yr old CB.  I think he was playing Bundesliga prior to his injury so he is certainly on track to be part of our pool (recognizing the obvious caveats).  

He wasn’t. Magdeburg play in the 2nd bundesliga and he wasn’t even get minutes for the first team. Prior to his injury, he was actually playing for their reserve team, which competes in the 6th tier.

[VinceA]

59 minutes ago, kingvikingstad said:

One thing I'd throw into the mix.

Our talent pipeline is not as known and linear as other nations. We are only now starting to build the infrastructure to find and nurture talent. And yet, there are still the Kones/Davids/Johnstons of the world who fall between the cracks for a while.

As a result, it may be harder to project our future talent pool when compared to England or even the US who have funded youth setups and several professional academies.

Additionally, because they aren't being heavily coached and brought through professional environments, they may meet their peaks in a different way. Buchanon is a good example, as his development has been exponential since joining MLS, and then Brugge.

I would guess it's very likely we have 2-3 players who are pushing into our 2026 WC roster who are fairly unknown to most of us at this point - either because they are playing in the NCAA, or try their luck overseas after being overlooked by our MLS academies.

Last thing - our playing in the World Cup may push some of those who have been overlooked to try their luck overseas!

Hell, to add to that Matt Doyle straight up said he expects Malcolm Johnston to become a part of the pool and he's another college kid with no prior YNT looks. Gonna be lots of guys who had to go to school to finally get noticed.

[Kusch to the Corner]

14 hours ago, 74 Whitecap said:

 

If they do 3 team groups, I guess they will do it only once. I remember reading an academic paper on the number of potentially dodgy matches in 3 team groups and it is really high, surprisingly (to me at least) so.

If you ever come across that paper again, I'd be interested in reading it.

I'm no proponent of a 48 team world cup, but I do have a stats background, and they way I've looked at it, the chances of "dodgy" happenings in a 3 team group with both a top 16 ranked team and a 33-48 ranked team in it are remote.

I'd be interested in seeing another opinion though.