Dual Nationals: Understanding a Lost Player vs a Gained Player

[Shway]

Okay I have to air out my feelings in regards to dual nationals and what it means to lose a player vs gained one. Because in the Mitrovic thread (and others alike) and the latest NFP episode 85 where they @Blackjack15 were overstating who we've gained...I've been hearing a misrepresentation of how players are described as lost vs gained.
So here's my interpretation....

Lost - is when a player is not only born but also raised in Canada, and has played youth footy for several years in the country is taken by another countries football program. In severe technical terms, these players have in some ways contributed financially to the CSA through youth soccer fees. These players have direct ties to not only the football culture in the country.  For example guys like Marmoush, Kadioulgu, Cristante, Tomori, and Bono could never be considered as "lost" because of what is explained above.

Gained - is when a player has loose ties to Canada, has never or barely lived in the country or has never played soccer in the country but is eligible to represent the CMNT through ancestral history. For example David, or Akinola could never be considered as "gained" because of what is explained above. 

Here's some players from each category over the past 10 years.

Gained: Pedro Pacheco, Scott Arfield, Jayson Leutwiler, Juan Cordova, David Wotherspoon, Frank Sturing, Cristian Gutierrez, Lucas Koleosho 
Lost: Jonathan De Guzman, Dominik Yankov, Enes Sali, Stefan Mitrovic, Marcelo Flores

So I don't want to hear that "dual nationals" like Hoilett, Davies, St. Clair, were gained! Because these guys have been playing in Canada soccers pyramid before they started their professional football careers. A guy like Corbeanu could be perceived as "gained" but considering the definitions if he chose Romania he would've been considered as lost. 

Not every player that doesn't join the program is "lost", and not ever player that joins the program is "gained".

Edited September 19, 2022 by Shway

[Pottsy3]

I agree with the general sentiment of this but I think there is a bit of nuance. I would state further, I don't really consider a player to be lost if they are generally off the radar of the national team level right now. A player like Scott Arfield is often seen as a gain for Canada but was not considered as a loss for Scotland (who had years to call him up), similarly I'm usually happy to see players like Emery Welshman playing for Guyana as they are not really a loss for Canada (I'd imagine he sees himself as Canadian first but is not on the national team radar).

Ike Ugbo was another gain imo, as he barely qualified for Canada and had done much of his development outside of the country + was about to commit to another country. Alessandro Busti can be added to that list as well.

Andreas Vaikla was a loss at the time of his commitment to Estonia, but has had a fall for grace to the point where it isn't a concern anymore.

Begovic like Tomori are a bit of  a nuanced case as I suppose he has stronger ties to the country they now represent, but he almost felt like a loss because they were around the program and seemingly close to committing.
 

[Shway]

3 minutes ago, Pottsy3 said:

I agree with the general sentiment of this but I think there is a bit of nuance. I would state further, I don't really consider a player to be lost if they are generally off the radar of the national team level right now. A player like Scott Arfield is often seen as a gain for Canada but was not considered as a loss for Scotland (who had years to call him up), similarly I'm usually happy to see players like Emery Welshman playing for Guyana as they are not really a loss for Canada (I'd imagine he sees himself as Canadian first but is not on the national team radar).

I only wanted to speak from the CMNT stand point, because as you point out there can be different interpretations of "gained vs lost" if seen from other federation perspectives. 

3 minutes ago, Pottsy3 said:

Ike Ugbo was another gain imo, as he barely qualified for Canada and had done much of his development outside of the country + was about to commit to another country. Alessandro Busti can be added to that list as well.

Ike I was going to list but with an asterisk, as it's not fully clear by my definitions. I think he lived here long enough, and played for several youth clubs for him to be considered part of the pool. The fact that he went from Woodbridge to Chelsea is why I'm saying he was probably being tracked. His eligibility was the surprise.

3 minutes ago, Pottsy3 said:

Begovic like Tomori are a bit of  a nuanced case as I suppose he has stronger ties to the country they now represent, but he almost felt like a loss because they were around the program and seemingly close to committing.

Begovic was most definitely a loss in my terms, I just didn't list him because he was outside of the 10 year time frame that I mentioned. 

Tomori would've been gained, considering he never kicked a ball in Canada, and is Canadian only by birth. Kinda the same way David is American only by birth.  

[Corazon]

37 minutes ago, Shway said:

I only wanted to speak from the CMNT stand point, because as you point out there can be different interpretations of "gained vs lost" if seen from other federation perspectives. 

Ike I was going to list but with an asterisk, as it's not fully clear by my definitions. I think he lived here long enough, and played for several youth clubs for him to be considered part of the pool. The fact that he went from Woodbridge to Chelsea is why I'm saying he was probably being tracked. His eligibility was the surprise.

Begovic was most definitely a loss in my terms, I just didn't list him because he was outside of the 10 year time frame that I mentioned. 

Tomori would've been gained, considering he never kicked a ball in Canada, and is Canadian only by birth. Kinda the same way David is American only by birth.  

I agree with most of your points on this discussion although I do feel stronger with him being born in Canada.  Although, I feel a lot less anger, frustration when a player such as Tomori chooses another country since he knows nothing aside from England and his Nigerian home.  I don't fault Tomori like I do with players born and raised here.

However, the fact he played a couple games for Canada at the u20 level makes this case a bit more of a loss.  As for the kicked a ball in Canada, I'm not sure we ever held any U20 camps on home soil for him to technically "kick a ball" on our soil.

It hurts most because he was born here unlike players like Cristante, Ferdi, Marmoush etc.  But it double hurts because he played in our youth system (with many current Canadian National players as well). 

Edited September 19, 2022 by Corazon

[SpecialK]

5 minutes ago, Corazon said:

Tomori

Tomori played for Canada though ? When Canada won against England it really put him map for England. It’s sad that he wasn’t called more for youth stuff before england. In my view it was failure of our scouting and youth programs. 

[InglewoodJack]

Generally agree with your assessment, but for me, it's highly contextual based on two things:

A) quality of opportunity from other nation

B ) realistic chance for Canada to get him.

For a tomori, he was offered a spot with England- there isn't a single thing we could've done here to compete with England, so it just is what it is. For Mitrovic, Canada failed at identifying his talent younger, we also failed at calling him up younger and only paid attention once we joined Red Star. That's a massive L, not for the type of player we lost, but the ease in which we should've had in calling him up. I don't really consider Flores a loss because his heart was set on Mexico- sure you can debate that Canada is as quality as Mexico is- our WC qualifying record certainly indicates that, but he never once gave Canada a realistic chance, so there again, it just is what it is. I consider St. Clair a win because he would be T&T's starting keeper by now, whereas he's gotta wait a few more years until he's our back up, let alone getting consistent caps for us. It's not a massive win, but it's a win nonetheless.

[Corazon]

11 minutes ago, SpecialK said:

Tomori played for Canada though ? When Canada won against England it really put him map for England. It’s sad that he wasn’t called more for youth stuff before england. In my view it was failure of our scouting and youth programs. 

Agreed, he was a standout in those games and did an incredible job shutting down Rashford if I remember.

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

1 hour ago, SpecialK said:

Tomori played for Canada though ? When Canada won against England it really put him map for England. It’s sad that he wasn’t called more for youth stuff before england. In my view it was failure of our scouting and youth programs. 

Tough to say for me, he left Canada age one.  I guess with today's internet databases, you could constantly be scanning players' birthplaces but I think even that was much less a thing 4/5 years ago, when we are talking. 

Edited September 19, 2022 by WestHamCanadianinOxford

[SpecialK]

The issue I have with Bryan Cristante is that, no one from CSA ever reached out to him when he was playing in the Milan youth system. He even played with Ricardo Ferreira roughly The same time. Cristante brother said on Twitter if they reached out before Italy did it could have been a different story. He wasn’t even on the CSA radar. So if the CSA had a better system in place and more people looking for talent. If he was part of Canadian team, he a game changer! Our midfield trouble are over. With him and maybe Holmes or Tomori, the conversation changes from can we score a goal and maybe win a game to who are we playing after the group stage. So in my view the lose is huge, because those are game changing players. 

[Shway]

5 hours ago, SpecialK said:

The issue I have with Bryan Cristante is that, no one from CSA ever reached out to him when he was playing in the Milan youth system. He even played with Ricardo Ferreira roughly The same time. Cristante brother said on Twitter if they reached out before Italy did it could have been a different story. He wasn’t even on the CSA radar. So if the CSA had a better system in place and more people looking for talent. If he was part of Canadian team, he a game changer! Our midfield trouble are over. With him and maybe Holmes or Tomori, the conversation changes from can we score a goal and maybe win a game to who are we playing after the group stage. So in my view the lose is huge, because those are game changing players. 

Those guy fall into the category of “hope and a prayer”. Literally going other federation players (albeit Tomori) instead of focusing on the ones slipping away from under our noses.

[SpecialK]

Is it hope and pray though ? if there was good planning, a real scouting program plus a full youth program and senior program. Would we be in the same position? I personally feel we are still making the same mistakes. We rely on a core 24-30 players way too much and we are missing out ? there’s really no real battle for Spots. After the 30 players calibre drops hard. 

[Ally McCoist]

So unless OneSoccer (and JJD) are being factually false, Tomori is actually a true loss despite what you said.

 

12 hours ago, Shway said:

Lost - is when a player is not only born but also raised in Canada, and has played youth footy for several years in the country is taken by another countries football program. In severe technical terms, these players have in some ways contributed financially to the CSA through youth soccer fees. These players have direct ties to not only the football culture in the country.  For example guys like Marmoush, Kadioulgu, Cristante, Tomori, and Bono could never be considered as "lost" because of what is explained above.

 

Edited September 20, 2022 by Ally McCoist

[SpecialK]

I know we talk about a lot of players from late 90s and 00 and the current players who choice not to play for Canada. 
 

but I wonder how many players we missed in the late 80s and early 90s - John van 't Schip - very good attacking player, choice to play for the Dutch. Played in the 90 World Cup. Jimmy Nicholl - Man U right back played in 2 world cups.  After the World Cup in 86 didn't things just start falling part? I’m just curious the talent that we could had and if they choice Canada would things be different today. 

[An Observer]

13 hours ago, SpecialK said:

I know we talk about a lot of players from late 90s and 00 and the current players who choice not to play for Canada. 
 

but I wonder how many players we missed in the late 80s and early 90s - John van 't Schip - very good attacking player, choice to play for the Dutch. Played in the 90 World Cup. Jimmy Nicholl - Man U right back played in 2 world cups.  After the World Cup in 86 didn't things just start falling part? I’m just curious the talent that we could had and if they choice Canada would things be different today. 

Some of me wonders that with the lack of internet in those years whether CSA or the fans ever were able to dig up the dual nationals like we do now.  Frank Yallop springs to mind as one we got who was a bit of surprise to me at the time (but I think that was largely down to Forrest playing for the same side).  Tony Menezes was another that came out of no where really but I suspect there were probably a number of others playing in decent leagues around the world that either had a Canadian passport or were eligible for one that we just didn’t unearth.  They either had to fall into our lap or specifically reach out to the CSA at the time as I don’t believe we were actively looking for them.