How Far Are We From A Soccer Nation?

[InglewoodJack]

17 hours ago, Rivaldo said:

Do you think improving the quality of MLS, so that it's clearly better than Liga MX, would have as much an impact on soccer in Canada as having one of the Canadian MLS teams rise to the top of the league again, like Toronto did for a few years?

As long as Canadians have equal footing as Americans in terms of domestic status, then as MLS improves, we improve as well. Look at all the young guys Toronto has traded across the league- no chance for Toronto to sell Shaffelburg or McNaughton to a top ~7 league in Europe, but they both went to Nashville- if MLS was on par with some of the better European leagues, all of a sudden we're spreading our players across one of the best leagues in the world.

Maybe the guys I mentioned wouldn't even be in MLS if we were at that level, but it's a lot easier to send our young players to other teams in MLS than it is in Europe. Even a guy like Kone who was basically getting European attention after his first 3 or 4 pro games- it would've been tougher for him if MLS was a better league, but all top leagues in Europe feature young, raw players. He scores a goal in his first couple games in a top 5 league, and all of a sudden it's not Watford and Norwich calling for him, it's Chelsea and Atletico.

 

[SpursFlu]

I actually thought Beckham became so well known for being overrated that eventually became underrated 

I've always been a sucker for that hollywood ball, big swooping switch of play

[Macksam]

11 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

I actually thought Beckham became so well known for being overrated that eventually became underrated 

I've always been a sucker for that hollywood ball, big swooping switch of play

Lulz, clever, I genuinely smirked when I read this, and I think you're on to something there. 

[Rivaldo]

4 hours ago, Macksam said:

MLS will have at least two years to keep those eyeballs and they need to up the level of the league overall to ensure those eyeballs stay after those aforementioned two years. How will they do that? IMO, increase the DP slots to 5 and start signing players on back loaded contracts right away considering the cap will probably go up exponentially next season with all the added money Messi is going to bring in, turn Inter Miami and other MLS teams into world class squads overnight and the hardcore crowd will stay after he leaves and MLS will become a top five league after that.  

The cap is set until 2027. I'd be shocked if they changed it.

If MLS finds itself awash in money they might add another DP slot and some allocation money, but that's not going to turn teams into world class overnight.

Edited June 15, 2023 by Rivaldo

[Macksam]

17 minutes ago, Rivaldo said:

The cap is set until 2027. I'd be shocked if they changed it.

If MLS finds itself awash in money they might add another DP slot and some allocation money, but that's not going to turn teams into world class overnight.

That's not set on stone, no MLS rule is based on the league's history. If it benefits the league, they will make the appropriate changes, whether that be increasing DP slots, the cap, TAM or general allocation money. 

[Kent]

Another reason why it could be different with Messi is that the base level of the league is better now than it was when  Beckham came over. Beckham brought eyeballs to a mediocre league. Messi will bring eyeballs to a pretty good league.

[InglewoodJack]

My one concern with Messi is this turns into a side show. 90% of fans at every away game this year are cheering for Messi. Fine, he’s the biggest sporting draw in the world, whatever, it’s his welcome tour. But next year, when he’s just another (greatest of all time) player in the league, I hope opposing fans see him as an opponent- a great show to watch, but the guy you want to see score a beautiful goal late in the game to make the score 3-1 for your home team. 
 

There’s a negative correlation between the people I know who follow MLS and the people I know who are excited about Messi. Just hope the Messi fans can stick around beyond just watching him.

[Macksam]

39 minutes ago, InglewoodJack said:

My one concern with Messi is this turns into a side show. 90% of fans at every away game this year are cheering for Messi. Fine, he’s the biggest sporting draw in the world, whatever, it’s his welcome tour. But next year, when he’s just another (greatest of all time) player in the league, I hope opposing fans see him as an opponent- a great show to watch, but the guy you want to see score a beautiful goal late in the game to make the score 3-1 for your home team. 
 

There’s a negative correlation between the people I know who follow MLS and the people I know who are excited about Messi. Just hope the Messi fans can stick around beyond just watching him.

The side show is inevitable and the league will just have to swallow that if it gets out of hand.

As for the bolded, that is the issue and that is what MLS has to figure out over the next two years like I mentioned above. The onus will be on the league to increase the product overall as a result of all those extra eye balls Messi is going to bring. 

[red card]

14 hours ago, Joe MacCarthy said:

I've always agreed with this.  Usually when I post I provide third party corroborating evidence of the point I'm trying to make.  When I can't do that, I say it's just my opinion. So, JMO I think if there were at least 5 teams, you would have more cross Canada appeal, there would be a team at least somewhat near you to provide a rooting interest.

With one team that team assumes the de facto standard of being "Canada's team"

But three teams, seem to be popular only within their own area.  Who do people on the Prairies align with, same with people from the Maritimes?  MLS has not taken the position of the NFL where people in Canada often with a few local exceptions (Bills, Seahawks) just randomly come up with a team.

Is there any significant MLS fandom in the Maritimes or the Prairies, do they have a logical rooting interest? Hope that made some sense.

Based on a survey done last year, people who follow MLS very to closely in Atlantic Canada was 7%. Alberta & Prairies were the lowest at 4% including 0% following very closely in Alberta. Atlantic was only 1% less than Quebec, 2% less than BC and 4% less than Ontario. So, not big numbers anywhere to see significant differences.

Looking at the NBA, the Prairies over index with second highest interest and 5% less than Ontario. So, the Seabears getting good initial attendance shouldn't be a surprise.

Atlantic over indexes with MLB with second highest interest and 8% behind Ontario. Atlantic Canada has highest interest in the NFL at 23%. So, the New England effect hasn't carried over as much for MLS interest.

 

 

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by red card

[SpursFlu]

I have the answer everyone!

It's based on Science.. its a fact.. its measurable 

How far are we from becoming a soccer nation? Not far

We will be a soccer nation.. drum roll

If we beat Panama tonight!!!!!!

[SpursFlu]

We're trying to become only the 2nd none soccer nation to win Concacaf Nations League.. lets make history!

Edited June 15, 2023 by SpursFlu

[Kent]

Atiba has spoken. Debate over. It should be queued up but the relevant quote is from 1:35 in the video below.

 

[masster]

I would say we are pretty far away...if all we can draw is 17,000 people for the opening match of a continental competition. 

[Stoppage Time]

39 minutes ago, masster said:

I would say we are pretty far away...if all we can draw is 17,000 people for the opening match of a continental competition. 

If the opponent had been the USA, there would have been a sellout at BMO, but your point is taken. We are fanatical only for the big draws when we should be fanatical to see Les Rouges play at home.

Furthermore, we still have not properly established the U Levels development programs for young players including dual-nationals. That is absolutely a thing that MUST be fixed very quickly.

[Kent]

30 minutes ago, Stoppage Time said:

If the opponent had been the USA, there would have been a sellout at BMO, but your point is taken. We are fanatical only for the big draws when we should be fanatical to see Les Rouges play at home.

Furthermore, we still have not properly established the U Levels development programs for young players including dual-nationals. That is absolutely a thing that MUST be fixed very quickly.

Is that even true? We have played the USA at BMO field in 2012 and 2019 and neither drew 20,000, let alone 30,000. The only sell out against them was a pivotal world cup qualifying match in a smaller stadium that was restricted to half capacity. We may very well have been able to sell that game out in BMO at full capacity, but it's hard to say for certain since I don't think we have ever sold out BMO field for a national team game, when it was at full capacity.

[Colonel Green]

6 hours ago, Kent said:

Is that even true? We have played the USA at BMO field in 2012 and 2019 and neither drew 20,000, let alone 30,000. The only sell out against them was a pivotal world cup qualifying match in a smaller stadium that was restricted to half capacity. We may very well have been able to sell that game out in BMO at full capacity, but it's hard to say for certain since I don't think we have ever sold out BMO field for a national team game, when it was at full capacity.

You’re right that we haven’t fully tested the proposition, but 2019 and especially 2012 are pretty different circumstances compared to now. The profile is much, much higher than it was a decade ago. I’m reasonably confident that a match against a name opponent would draw a much bigger crowd.

[Kent]

6 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

You’re right that we haven’t fully tested the proposition, but 2019 and especially 2012 are pretty different circumstances compared to now. The profile is much, much higher than it was a decade ago. I’m reasonably confident that a match against a name opponent would draw a much bigger crowd.

We also only drew 13,626 to a make or break Nations League game against Honduras in March. That's less than we had in the stadium against Honduras in 2012 for World Cup qualifying. It really feels like the team had a big profile during the Oct and the World Cup, and now it's pretty much right back to where it was before.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

Wait until Messi shows up next season though and it won't be easy to pick up a ticket at a reasonable price just before kickoff. The latent level of interest in soccer in urban southern Ontario has always been huge but people have been indocrinated by the media not to view the CMNT as something quintessentially Canadian that they should be rallying behind.

Canada the way it actually is and the Canada that we are told exists through mass media outlets are not necessarily one and the same, so yes Canada is a nation where soccer is a popular sport amongst sizable segments of the population but it's not a nation where that was fostered and actively promoted as part of the post-imperial nation building project.

[Shway]

8 hours ago, masster said:

I would say we are pretty far away...if all we can draw is 17,000 people for the opening match of a continental competition. 

An opening  match against France to boot! 

Heard kids saying “it’s 1-0 France”….”where’s Mbappe”.

[Colonel Green]

2 hours ago, Kent said:

We also only drew 13,626 to a make or break Nations League game against Honduras in March. That's less than we had in the stadium against Honduras in 2012 for World Cup qualifying. It really feels like the team had a big profile during the Oct and the World Cup, and now it's pretty much right back to where it was before.

“World Cup qualifying” being the big term there. The Nations League doesn’t mean anything to most people.

[Ottawafan]

Was pleasantly surprised with the crowd last night tbh.

[JBR]

1 hour ago, Ottawafan said:

Was pleasantly surprised with the crowd last night tbh.

Yah, lots of youth soccer teams in the crowd. Kids in my section wearing Davies and David shirts and even knowing the lesser-knowns on the field. None of them seemingly caring about CSA finances or mismanagement. Just stoked on our team and cheering loudly. a bit of optimism. 

[Kent]

3 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

“World Cup qualifying” being the big term there. The Nations League doesn’t mean anything to most people.

Yes, I am aware of that. The original claim I was objecting to was "If the opponent had been the USA, there would have been a sellout at BMO". I don't think USA vs Canada in the Gold Cup group stage would be a big enough draw, because it's not World Cup Qualifying.

The secondary claim I was objecting to was "The profile is much, much higher than it was a decade ago". If it was much, much higher profile now, then people would probably know what the heck Nations League is and the allure of the new popular national team should be enough to outdraw the old unpopular national team of 10 years ago in the penultimate round of WCQ.

[Ottawafan]

We know our top 8 is as good as anyone in Concacaf.  Had we a full compliment, we'd likely be favored to win the GC looking at the other rosters.  Those 8 not being here can be looked at as a blessing.

Our depth is a concern and sorely needed.  Canada needs to play new and younger talent, to see what we have.  That comes with growing pains.  We need to give young cats the opportunity to grow and help build the program.  While I am somewhat disappointed with the result from last night, I will wait until the first round is complete before I can judge if the GC has been beneficial to the program going forward.

[red card]

22 hours ago, masster said:

I would say we are pretty far away...if all we can draw is 17,000 people for the opening match of a continental competition. 

Growth of the sport has been incremental in Canada ever since the first World Cup was shown on tv in 1982. The only real spurts were registered players increased by 102% from 1993-2000 and post London Olympics for the women's game (but coming from a low base).

As Rocket Robin noted in his game report for last night, at the 2015 Gold Cup doubleheader at BMO Field, 5k showed up for Jamaica v El Salvador. Second match was Canada v Costa Rica. Total attendance was 16,674.

Nations League match in 2019 v USA at BMO got 17,126 at much lower priced tickets with little to no Americans in attendance. Past WCQs against small island Carribean nations would get 10k or lower at BMO with giveaway deals such as 2 for 1 tickets.