2022 World Cup Draw

[archer21]

3 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

I don't have them there. FIFA ranking has them there.

I would not use FIFA rankings as a true measurement of a team’s strength. ELO ratings tend to be more accurate, and they have Germany, Netherlands, Denmark af 9, 10, 11 with USA 21.

[theaub]

For fun (may have been posted) - here are the pots based on Elo.

• Pot 1: Qatar (51), Brazil (1), France (2), Argentina (3), Belgium (4), Spain (5), England (6), Portugal (8)
• Pot 2: Germany (9), Netherlands (10), Denmark (11), Uruguay (12), Switzerland (13), Croatia (16), Mexico (17), USA (21)
• Pot 3: Serbia (18), Iran (23), South Korea (26), Poland (27), Japan (29), Morocco (34), Senegal (36), Tunisia (60)
• Pot 4: Ecuador (20), Canada (28), Saudi Arabia (54), Cameroon (56), Ghana (72)

[apbsmith]

1 hour ago, Gian-Luca said:

For that matter, the AFC-Comnebol playoff winner also will not get slotted into either of their groups since the potential is there for that team to be Peru. It seems like a pretty strong chance that we will get either one of those two teams.

Also, Switzerland, for whatever reason, almost always seems to get a Concacaf team when they qualify (I think 2006 is the only time going back to 1994 where that happened in a WC where the Swiss qualified - they got the US that year, Honduras twice and then the Ticos last time round). They can't get the US or Mexico this time round since they are in the same pot, but they could get us of course (or possibly the Ticos again, even though I hope they lose 49-0 to NZ in the playoff).

Swiss are incredibly well organized and clinical in front of goal. If there is any Euro team that "underestimates us" it will NOT be Switzerland. Not sure why so many are sleeping on the Suisse, they are one of my darkhorses for a deep run, regardless of what group they are drawn in. 

[apbsmith]

11 minutes ago, theaub said:

For fun (may have been posted) - here are the pots based on Elo.

• Pot 1: Qatar (51), Brazil (1), France (2), Argentina (3), Belgium (4), Spain (5), England (6), Portugal (8)
• Pot 2: Germany (9), Netherlands (10), Denmark (11), Uruguay (12), Switzerland (13), Croatia (16), Mexico (17), USA (21)
• Pot 3: Serbia (18), Iran (23), South Korea (26), Poland (27), Japan (29), Morocco (34), Senegal (36), Tunisia (60)
• Pot 4: Ecuador (20), Canada (28), Saudi Arabia (54), Cameroon (56), Ghana (72)

Thanks for this, is what it is now, but I would have feared no team in Pot 4. Where if you watch alot of international footy... lots of very good quality teams in pot 3. The benefit to us being in pot 4 now though is if we can win vs the pot 3 team, there is a better chance the pot 3 team can take points from a pot 1 or pot 2 team which keep the standings close. Where say a team like Cameroon/Ghana/Saudia Arabia could go 0-0-3 in the group.   

So much of all this anyways will come down to the "luck of the draw": 

1) if the draw is unfavorable we will have a 50 page thread going into 2026 on how to get to pot 2. 

2)if the draw is favorable we will have all the comments saying "pot 4 was better"

Best of luck to us on Friday, may the fifa heated balls land in our favor!

Edited March 31, 2022 by apbsmith

[Free kick]

Here is hoping Lothar Matteus has figured out how to open the balls and pull out the small piece of paper.   I was getting nervous watching him

 

PS.:  this is for anyone who watched the recent FIFA draw form the euro playoffs and intercontinental playoffs.   It sounds like it will be the same guests for tmrw's show.  

 

Edited March 31, 2022 by Free kick

[lbula17]

7 minutes ago, apbsmith said:

Thanks for this, is what it is now, but I would have feared no team in Pot 4. Where if you watch alot of international footy... lots of very good quality teams in pot 3. The benefit to us being in pot 4 now though is if we can win vs the pot 3 team, there is a better chance the pot 3 team can take points from a pot 1 or pot 2 team which keep the standings close. Where say a team like Cameroon/Ghana/Saudia Arabia could go 0-0-3 in the group.   

So much of all this anyways will come down to the "luck of the draw": 

1) if the draw is unfavorable we will have a 50 page thread going into 2026 on how to get to pot 2. 

2)if the draw is favorable we will have all the comments saying "pot 4 was better"

Best of luck to us on Friday, may the fifa heated balls land in our favor!

Maybe a a different point of view, but if one person complains about our group tmr i'll be confused. We are in the World Cup, not the 2026 world cup, the 2022 Qatar World Cup. Who cares if we have to face England, or Denmark. We have achieved such a high level of international football that Southgate and coaches will fear us and our team! Let's enjoy the draw and remember where we were a year or two ago.

[VinceA]

Qatar is the big hope, otherwise I don't mind Portugal as our pot 1 as the team is older and slow.

I think most likely our Pot 2 will be difficult, even if I fancy us against someone like Croatia who has a lot of older players.

From pot 3 I think Tunisia is the big hope.

Ultimately we need to face teams that can't match us for speed. Older teams that are susceptible to the counter are ideal.

[Mattd97]

56 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

I don't have them there. FIFA ranking has them there.

Sorry hard to tell when this was the literal wording
 

Quote

but I see them at the same level of play as the USA and Mexico

 

Either way, it doesnt matter where FIFA has them, we all know that playing well against Mexico and the US is not the same as playing well against Brazil and France

[Free kick]

Here is how Concacaf teams have done at the past WC's.   Its better than some ppl here seem to  think.   Mex and the US can hold their own.  and based on this so should we.

PS.: CONCACAF has done better than Asia and Africa. and can hold their own against (or beat) the second tier Euro sides

This is based  ONLY on the teams that have advanced from the group stage

How Concacaf Teams at the WC have done:

2018 (Russia)……..Mex (R16)

2014 (Brazil)……….Mex (R16)…..US (R16)…..CRC (1/4)

2010 (S. Afr)……….Mex (R16)…..US (R16)

2006 (Germany)…Mex (R16)

2002 (Jpn/S.Kor)..Mex (R16)…..US (1\4)

1998 (France)…….Mex (R16)

1994 (US)…………..Mex (R16)…..US (R16)

How Asia Teams at the WC have done:

2018 (Russia)……..JPN (R16)

2014 (Brazil)……….None

2010 (S. Afr)……….JPN (R16)…..Kor (R16)

2006 (Germany)…Aus (R16)…..Kor (R16)

2002 (Jpn/S.Kor)..JPN (R16)…..Kor (1\2)*

1998 (France)…….None

1994 (US)…………..KSA (R16)

* Achieved through bribery of ref's

How African Teams at the WC have done:

2018 (Russia)……..None

2014 (Brazil)……….Nig (R16)…..Alg (R16)

2010 (S. Afr)……….Gha (1/4)

2006 (Germany)…Gha (R16)

2002 (Jpn/S.Kor)..Sen (1/4)

1998 (France)…….Nig (R16)

1994 (US)…………..Nig (R16)

Edited March 31, 2022 by Free kick

[Sal333]

1 hour ago, archer21 said:

I would not use FIFA rankings as a true measurement of a team’s strength. ELO ratings tend to be more accurate, and they have Germany, Netherlands, Denmark af 9, 10, 11 with USA 21.

They also have us at 28.

[Sal333]

10 minutes ago, Mattd97 said:

Sorry hard to tell when this was the literal wording
 

 

Either way, it doesnt matter where FIFA has them, we all know that playing well against Mexico and the US is not the same as playing well against Brazil and France

I did say France and Brazil are two of the four teams I fear. I did not lump them in with USA & Mexico

 

[Corazon]

7 minutes ago, Free kick said:

Here is how Concacaf teams have done at the past WC's.   Its better than most think.   Mex and the US can hold their own.  and based on this so should we

 

 

How Concacaf Teams at the WC have done:

2018 (Russia)……..Mex (R16)

2014 (Brazil)……….Mex (R16)…..US (R16)…..CRC (1/4)

2010 (S. Afr)……….Mex (R16)…..US (R16)

2006 (Germany)…Mex (R16)

2002 (Jpn/S.Kor)..Mex (R16)…..US (1\4)

1998 (France)…….Mex (R16)

1994 (US)…………..Mex (R16)…..US (R16)

How Asia Teams at the WC have done:

2018 (Russia)……..JPN (R16)

2014 (Brazil)……….None

2010 (S. Afr)……….JPN (R16)…..Kor (R16)

2006 (Germany)…Aus (R16)…..Kor (R16)

2002 (Jpn/S.Kor)..JPN (R16)…..Kor (1\2)*

1998 (France)…….None

1994 (US)…………..KSA (R16)

* Achieved through bribery of ref's

How African Teams at the WC have done:

2018 (Russia)……..None

2014 (Brazil)……….Nig (R16)…..Alg (R16)

2010 (S. Afr)……….Gha (1/4)

2006 (Germany)…Gha (R16)

2002 (Jpn/S.Kor)..Sen (1/4)

1998 (France)…….Nig (R16)

1994 (US)…………..Nig (R16)

Part of the reason CONCACAF (US & Mexico) are somewhat successful in making it into knockout rounds is because of their high ranking.  Reality is that they are nowhere near where their World Rankings are.  However because of their ranking, they almost always get put into Pot 2 and as you can see from this years qualified teams, there is quite a drop off between the Pots 1 & 2 and Pots 3 & 4.  Playing in CONCACAF combined with the flaws in the FIFA point system enables them both to almost always be a favourite to get out of the group.

There are absolutely teams from Pots 3 & 4 that can compete but the odds are that both USA and Mexico will be favoured to come out as 2nd in their groups regardless of who they draw tomorrow.

Edited March 31, 2022 by Corazon

[Free kick]

7 minutes ago, Corazon said:

There are absolutely teams from Pots 3 & 4 that can compete but the odds are that both USA and Mexico will be favoured to come out as 2nd in their groups regardless of who they draw tomorrow.

But you have to be able to beat Pot 3 and 4 sides in order to advance.  they have shown they can do that. and if you can beat pot 3, 4 sides, do you not deserve to be in Pot 2?

 

Edited March 31, 2022 by Free kick

[Corazon]

4 minutes ago, Free kick said:

But you have to be able to beat Pot 3 and 4 sides in order to advance.  they have shown they can do that

100%.

But reality is that based on level of play, they're usually a Pot 3 team.  How many of those World Cups does USA &/or Mexico make it to the knockout rounds if they had to play both Pot 1, 2 & 4 teams instead of 1, 3 & 4.  Perhaps half but that might be generous.  Again just look at the other teams in Pot 2 vs the teams from Pot 3 in this year's world cup.

Edited March 31, 2022 by Corazon

[Free kick]

5 minutes ago, Corazon said:

100%.

But reality is that based on level of play, they're usually a Pot 3 team.  How many of those World Cups does USA &/or Mexico make it to the knockout rounds if they had to play both Pot 1 & 2 teams instead of 1 & 3.  Perhaps half but that might be generous.

But up until Russia 2018,  the pot allocation was not based on rankings.   it was based in geograhpical distribution.   And by ending up in the same pot as asia (ie.: 5+3) means that they seldom get the chance to play the weak asian sides.

 

so they faced a lot of South american/african  sides ( 3+5)

and they faced a lot european sides that ended up in teh second pot.

Edited March 31, 2022 by Free kick

[Kyle_The_Hill]

3 minutes ago, Free kick said:

But up until Russia 2018,  the pot allocation was not based on rankings.   it was based in geograhpical distribution.   And by ending up in the same pot as asia (ie.: 5+3) means that they seldom get the chance to play the weak asian sides 

Yep. Look at the 2014 seeding.

[Soro17]

53 minutes ago, apbsmith said:

Thanks for this, is what it is now, but I would have feared no team in Pot 4.

Pot 4 will also have Peru (ELO 15), Costa Rica (33) and either Ukraine or Wales (24/19) (sorry, Scotland). 

BTW, Ukraine/Wales/Scotland being placed in pot 4 due to war-caused delay seems a bit of a screw-job for them. 

[Corazon]

7 minutes ago, Free kick said:

But up until Russia 2018,  the pot allocation was not based on rankings.   it was based in geograhpical distribution.   And by ending up in the same pot as asia (ie.: 5+3) means that they seldom get the chance to play the weak asian sides.

 

so they faced a lot of South american/african  sides ( 3+5)

and they faced a lot european sides that ended up in teh second pot.

I stand corrected.  It won't matter anyways with the expanded format going forward.  That is going to be interesting how it works out.

[Corazon]

2 minutes ago, Soro17 said:

Pot 4 will also have Peru (ELO 15), Costa Rica (33) and either Ukraine or Wales (24/19) (sorry, Scotland). 

BTW, Ukraine/Wales/Scotland being placed in pot 4 due to war-caused delay seems a bit of a screw-job for them. 

It's terrible to say but the War conflict benefitted Canada to even having a shot at Pot 3.  In all likelihood it wasn't going to be Scotland coming out of that European playoff.

Edited March 31, 2022 by Corazon

[apbsmith]

7 minutes ago, Soro17 said:

Pot 4 will also have Peru (ELO 15), Costa Rica (33) and either Ukraine or Wales (24/19) (sorry, Scotland). 

BTW, Ukraine/Wales/Scotland being placed in pot 4 due to war-caused delay seems a bit of a screw-job for them. 

Fair, but again, I would prefer ( my opinion) us facing Peru or Wales over at least 1/2 the teams in pot 3. 

[Mattd97]

30 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

I did say France and Brazil are two of the four teams I fear. I did not lump them in with USA & Mexico

 

Youre right, I lost track of the original post in my example.  It wasnt that you view the USA and mexico the same as Brazil and France, it was that you view them the same as Germany and the Netherlands (pot 2 and all).  Which maybe you meant, I dont know, but I definitely disagree and youll love the odds if they meet.

"but I see them at the same level of play as the USA and Mexico"

[Unnamed Trialist]

1 hour ago, archer21 said:

I would not use FIFA rankings as a true measurement of a team’s strength. ELO ratings tend to be more accurate, and they have Germany, Netherlands, Denmark af 9, 10, 11 with USA 21.

Have fun following the competition ELO is organising next fall. 

Sorry, but I personally have always found ELO and all others to be totally assinine. I mean, I could appreciate someone with the Order of Canada, and then admire a Nobel Prize winner in the same field. But ELO? The value it gives me is somewhere between zero and significantly less than zero.

[VinceA]

We should also remember that getting France might not be too bad if the curse holds where the WC winner has a horrible World Cup the next time. Also France often implode at some World Cups and since they had a decent 2014 and won 2018 they're due for one.

Edited March 31, 2022 by VinceA

[Unnamed Trialist]

BTW, Canada is now ranked 38th in FIFA, Costa Rica is 31st. 

Glad Herdman and the boys are happy about being the fourth best team in Concacaf. In the end, the regional powerhouses come to the fore, and we are just guests along for the ride. For now.

The whole point, as I see it, is to break this pattern and have a mid to long term presence amongst our top 3-4, for at least 2-3 more WC cycles. 

[Obinna]

2 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

BTW, Canada is now ranked 38th in FIFA, Costa Rica is 31st. 

Glad Herdman and the boys are happy about being the fourth best team in Concacaf. In the end, the regional powerhouses come to the fore, and we are just guests along for the ride. For now.

The whole point, as I see it, is to break this pattern and have a mid to long term presence amongst our top 3-4, for at least 2-3 more WC cycles. 

Yup, fully agree with you sentiments here.

It felt like we were solidly 3rd best in the region, at minimum, with us having the 3rd best FIFA ranking, leading the qualification group, being first to qualify, and having dispatched the traditional 3rd team in last years Gold Cup QF.

What a difference one window makes.

Now we are ranked 4th in the region by FIFA, are going to pot 4 (no better than the Ticos if/when they qualify), and have yet to win a trophy with this group of players. You don't get a trophy for topping your qualification section, unfortunately. 

I would have traded 1st in the Octo with winning the nations league or Gold cup in a heartbeat.

Yes, it is a fantastic accomplishment, if not a watershed moment for men's soccer in Canada. The boys and Herdman deserve all the accolades in the world, but the reality of the Ticos jumping us in the rankings should be a reminder that we haven't toppled the current order of things just yet. 

At least we can take solace in our 3rd place FIFA ranking, which we are still comfortably in. We are actually closer to 2nd place USA than 4th place Costa Rica.