sstackho Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Jedi Ram, ADP10, maplebanana and 4 others 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplebanana Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 10 minutes ago, sstackho said: First of all, love the pic chosen for USA and will continue to love that pic indefinitely. As for pot 3, we have to consider that with our Elo higher than all of our opponents, we are 'expected' to beat them, i.e. We > 0.5 in the calculation. That means any draw loses us points, and any loss will lose us more points than any points we gain by winning. For us to move up in any significant way we need 2 wins and a draw. More likely we need other teams to fail, and I think our actual most likely scenario is for the USA to drop to 4th, thus pushing them to interconfederation playoff/pot 4 and pushing everyone in pot 3/4 up. Jedi Ram and MCa 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theaub Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Didn't realize how many AFC teams are likely in Pot 3. Means very good news for getting into a potential group with Qatar or Saudi Arabia if we can pull it off. sstackho and Jedi Ram 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eramosat Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Hmm. Pot4 quality looks to be getting significantly better, what with automatic Pot4 seeding for 2x inter-conference winners. I still prefer Pot3 for it's slight advantages for drawing "weaker" Pot4 sides, but it's all still a big crap-shoot, followed by the actual games. When we all get to heaven, that is. The World Cup! rkomar and narduch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpursFlu Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 (edited) One thing that is very apparent is that we're swimming whole different pool now. No matter how you slice it, every scenario looks very difficult Edited March 23, 2022 by SpursFlu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miche Posted March 23, 2022 Author Share Posted March 23, 2022 (edited) As it stands: Pot 1 Pot 2 Pot 3 Pot 4 Qatar 1437 Denmark 1654 Sweden 1588 Canada 1497 Belgium 1828 Netherlands 1653 Senegal 1587 Tunisia 1489 Brazil 1823 Germany 1648 Iran 1572 Cameroon 1472 France 1786 Mexico 1647 Serbia 1547 Ecuador 1458 Argentina 1766 USA 1643 Morocco 1547 Saudi Arabia 1433 England 1755 Switzerland 1642 Japan 1549 Wales 1578 Italy 1740 Croatia 1620 South Korea 1522 Peru (IC) 1563 Spain 1704 Uruguay 1605 Nigeria 1509 Panama (IC) 1375 Still a debate whether there's a great advantage being in Pot 3. Ecuador, Saudi Arabia, Wales, and Peru are all strong, but overall I'd say I'd still rather take my chances from Pot 3. Watch schedule (EDT) - rooting for (in hopes of attaining Pot 3): 24 March 5:10am Australia v Japan - Australia win 7:00am South Korea v Iran - Iran win 3:45pm Sweden v Czech Rep - Czech on pens 7:30pm Paraguay v Ecuador - Ecuador win 9:05pm Panama v Honduras - Honduras win/draw 10:00pm Mexico v USA - Mexico win/draw 10:05pm Costa Rica v Canada - Canada win 25 March 11:00am DR Congo v Morocco - DR Congo win/draw 1:00pm Cameroon v Algeria - Algeria win/draw 1:00pm Mali v Tunisia - Mali win/draw 3:30pm Egypt v Senegal - Egypt win/draw 3:30pm Ghana v Nigeria - Ghana win/draw Edited March 24, 2022 by Miche WestHamCanadianinOxford, Kyle_The_Hill, kobasew19 and 9 others 6 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueseeka Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 (edited) March 24 7:00am South Korea v Iran - Iran win March 25 3:30pm Ghana v Nigeria - Ghana win/draw The two games most worth watching. Definitely feel Iran has a real chance for a win. Just not sure how many points they would drop against a team ahead of them in the rankings. And we would probably still have to win out, if SK goes 1-1 in their two games The first game is Ghana's home game and best chance at getting a result versus Nigeria. The US has a real chance of falling to 4th. Away Mexico should be a loss. Panama at home could decide it. I will be cheering for Panama victory versus Honduras. Let's turn up the pressure on the US a little Edited March 23, 2022 by blueseeka narduch and TGAA_Star 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 6 hours ago, Miche said: As it stands: Pot 1 Pot 2 Pot 3 Pot 4 Qatar 1437 Denmark 1654 Sweden 1588 Canada 1497 Belgium 1828 Netherlands 1653 Senegal 1587 Tunisia 1489 Brazil 1823 Germany 1648 Iran 1572 Cameroon 1472 France 1786 Mexico 1647 Serbia 1547 Ecuador 1458 Argentina 1766 USA 1643 Morocco 1547 Saudi Arabia 1433 England 1755 Switzerland 1642 Japan 1549 Wales 1578 Italy 1740 Croatia 1620 South Korea 1522 Peru (IC) 1563 Spain 1704 Uruguay 1605 Nigeria 1509 Panama (IC) 1375 Still a debate whether there's a great advantage being in Pot 3. Ecuador, Saudi Arabia, Wales, and Peru are all strong, but overall I'd say I'd still rather take my chances from Pot 3. Let's not forget that there are also continental considerations in the draw. So if we make it to pot 3 and are drawn against Ecuador or Peru in Pot 4, that means we avoided Brazil and Argentina in Pot 1 and Uruguay in Pot 2. Now that I look at it more, we will be drawn into a group with either 1 South American and 1 European country, or 2 European countries from the top 2 pots (if the above table ends up matching reality) or we've drawn Qatar and a European team or Uruguay. So in scenario 1 we can't draw against a South American team from pot 4, and in scenario 2 we can't draw against a European team from pot 4, and in scenario 3 we can't draw against an Asian team from pot 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TGAA_Star Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 5 hours ago, blueseeka said: March 24 7:00am South Korea v Iran - Iran win March 25 3:30pm Ghana v Nigeria - Ghana win/draw The two games most worth watching. Definitely feel Iran has a real chance for a win. Just not sure how many points they would drop against a team ahead of them in the rankings. And we would probably still have to win out, if SK goes 1-1 in their two games The first game is Ghana's home game and best chance at getting a result versus Nigeria. The US has a real chance of falling to 4th. Away Mexico should be a loss. Panama at home could decide it. I will be cheering for Panama victory versus Honduras. Let's turn up the pressure on the US a little Ghana my country I want us to beat Nigeria but I expect us to lose against them. I swear after AFCON, I was done with my national team. So I have next to no faith on them to beat Nigeria at all. Hoping Iran beats South Korea but I think Korea gets the win. Obinna 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eramosat Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 (edited) nil-nil after one half Japan v. Australia. Japan has had a ton of top-flite chances, and fierce defence, but the Socceroos have made their own attempts too. Very entertaining watch. Japan scores, finally, in the 89th minute. Ozzies showed very little in the 2nd half. Edited March 24, 2022 by eramosat narduch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueseeka Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 (edited) Current Ranking Bottom of Pot 3 Japan with a win today 1560 South Korea 1522 Nigeria 1509 Pot 4 Canada 1497 KEY MATCHES South Korea vs Iran @7am IF SK wins 1536 SK ties 1524 SK loss 1511 Canada vs Costa Rico Canada win 1509 Canada tie 1497 Canada loss 1484 Edited March 24, 2022 by blueseeka chalms04 and narduch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally McCoist Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 Australia fucking sucks. narduch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sal333 Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Ally McCoist said: Australia fucking sucks. Be kind. In previous qualifying rounds the world was saying that about Canada. Obinna 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueseeka Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 (edited) Halftime South Korea 1-0 With the Japan win today, Canada cannot catch them. If South Korea wins (1536), then somehow lose to UAE (1520). Canada would have to win all three (1527) to pass them. It is highly unlikely that they would lose to UAE. We need a Iran comeback , Nigeria not winning both versus Ghana or the USA to choke Edited March 24, 2022 by blueseeka Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narduch Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ally McCoist said: Australia fucking sucks. The Conmebol 5th place team shouldn't be too worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
archer21 Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 (edited) 33 minutes ago, blueseeka said: Halftime South Korea 1-0 With the Japan win today, Canada cannot catch them. If South Korea wins (1536), then somehow lose to UAE (1520). Canada would have to win all three (1527) to pass them. It is highly unlikely that they would lose to UAE. We need a Iran comeback or the USA to choke 2-0 now. I think our best chance now is to catch Nigeria. Just need Ghana to pull of a result in one of the 2 legs. Edit: I think it’s possible to pass Nigeria even if we both win out, but I’m not positive. On the simulation site if you add up the points gained by each team winning out, they end up 0.05 points ahead of us. But that’s based on opponents’ points right now. Ghana will be lower and Nigeria higher for the 2nd leg, so they’d gain less points for that game than the first. And if Jamaica/Panama enter our games with more points than they have now, that could increase the amount of points we get from those games. So I think rankings wise, we should be hoping for Jamaica to beat El Salvador, and Panama to beat Honduras and USA Edited March 24, 2022 by archer21 blueseeka 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADP10 Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 I’d gladly take Saudi Arabia in my group Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 Others have posted filled in pots with hypothetical qualifications. I don't know if anyone is interested, but here are things as they stand right now (with old rankings, not up to date with results from this window). Obinna and Kyle_The_Hill 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theaub Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 I've seen a lot of posts/blog posts etc about catching teams - who behind us do we need to worry about? Is there any hope with a 4 point window if its the right 4 points (ie US ends up in 4th etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 8 minutes ago, theaub said: I've seen a lot of posts/blog posts etc about catching teams - who behind us do we need to worry about? Is there any hope with a 4 point window if its the right 4 points (ie US ends up in 4th etc) Without crunching all the ranking changes based on hypothetical results across the world, yes, I think so. 3 spots are automatically in pot 4 (inter continental playoff, which means we have to be ranked higher than 5 other teams. Saudi Arabia is in and is ranked well below us, so that leaves 4 more to go. From my post above you can see that Egypt, Tunisia, Australia, Cameroon, and Turkey all can still clinch. That list isn't exhaustive either, I stopped at that point in the rankings. The more upsets there are with lower ranked teams qualifying, the better our chances. Of course if we have a mediocre/poor window, teams like Egypt and likely Tunisia could pass us with a good window, but the point remains, there are other teams still in it ranked lower. Of course, these results are all unlikely, so it may be pretty unlikely we get so many of them, but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOCanada115 Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, theaub said: I've seen a lot of posts/blog posts etc about catching teams - who behind us do we need to worry about? Is there any hope with a 4 point window if its the right 4 points (ie US ends up in 4th etc) Depends. If the US finish 4th, then yes we’d move into pot 3, but Tunisia is 8 points behind us. If they win both games against Mali, and we get 4 points, they’re gonna surpass us for pot 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueseeka Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 If we have a 4 point window, we aren't getting into Pot 3. At that point, it doesn't matter if Tunisia passes us. We will both be in Pot 4 unless the USA falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miche Posted March 24, 2022 Author Share Posted March 24, 2022 27 minutes ago, theaub said: I've seen a lot of posts/blog posts etc about catching teams - who behind us do we need to worry about? Is there any hope with a 4 point window if its the right 4 points (ie US ends up in 4th etc) The second post in this thread has the approximate point totals each team can get this window. Also my post above includes the important matches for the chasing teams. Can we get Pot 3 from a 4pt window? Unlikely. It would net us about -5pts for the window. Tunisia would pass us. And Egypt as well if they upset Senegal. So we would need two from the following: USA to IC, Nigeria upset, Morocco upset. theaub 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Obinna Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 41 minutes ago, Kent said: Others have posted filled in pots with hypothetical qualifications. I don't know if anyone is interested, but here are things as they stand right now (with old rankings, not up to date with results from this window). I haven't been keeping up on all the possibilities for the pots, so forgive me if this was covered already, but the IC playoff spots (x2) and the Euro playoff spots (x3) are all in pot 4, right? That's 5 teams, isn't it? If my understanding is correct, then 3 teams would remain for pot 4. It would seem to me that as long as we have a good window, two of those spots will be filled by teams who won't catch us (Cameroon/Algeria & Tunisia/Mali). Then we need one of Egypt, Ghana and Congo to win their match up. Is my understanding correct here? I don't want to jump the gun, but the odds of us getting into Pot 3 seem very realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theaub Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 Only the delayed Euro playoff is in Pot 4. Obinna 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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