The Race for Pot 3

[gator]

I am glad we have a chance at pot 3, I haven't followed this thread closely but apparently the cards have fallen our way so a win tonight gets in that part of the draw! Just qualifying for this tournament is such a great achievement but we really don't know how we will match up with top teams out of our region, wanting Qatar as the pot 1 team in our group makes sense, I would have wanted a victory tonight regardless of the circumstances so lets do that and let the balls fall as they may!

[El Diego]

8 minutes ago, eramosat said:

You're right!  Fixing.

Thanks, I thought maybe I was seeing something. Especially since what I read before was that Pot 3 means more likely to get Qatar, which made intuitive sense since there were more Asian teams in Pot 3, but now this is saying that Pot 4 is more likely to get Qatar (albeit at a miniscule percentage difference).

[GasPed]

Some of these probability tables that people are posting are very interesting.  Wonder if someone could take it to the next step and post a "weighted FIFA rating of opponents" for Pot 3 vs Pot 4 using those probabilities.  Might be more helpful than just the "25% chance of drawing Peru? No!" approach...        

[GasPed]

4 hours ago, TGAA_Star said:

If we beat Panama, we go into Pot 3 but that is only if we can beat Panama tonight

So if we don't beat Panama, that means we're in Pot 4, if we don't beat them?

🙂

[El Diego]

 

[Sal333]

1 hour ago, gator said:

I am glad we have a chance at pot 3, I haven't followed this thread closely but apparently the cards have fallen our way so a win tonight gets in that part of the draw! Just qualifying for this tournament is such a great achievement but we really don't know how we will match up with top teams out of our region, wanting Qatar as the pot 1 team in our group makes sense, I would have wanted a victory tonight regardless of the circumstances so lets do that and let the balls fall as they may!

You can have your balls fall as they may. I'll keep mine safely tucked away.☺️

[gator]

18 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

You can have your balls fall as they may. I'll keep mine safely tucked away.☺️

Mine are just getting back out after the cold wind at BMO just so you know!

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

48 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

You can have your balls fall as they may. I'll keep mine safely tucked away.☺️

28 minutes ago, gator said:

Mine are just getting back out after the cold wind at BMO just so you know!

So we have a pair of hot balls and a pair of cold balls.

It's just like a FIFA draw of old! 🤣🤣

https://en.as.com/en/2016/06/13/soccer/1465851727_136465.amp.html

Edited March 30, 2022 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

2 hours ago, El Diego said:

(albeit at a miniscule percentage difference).

A reply to that Pots tweet states:

Combining...probabilities with qualification forecasts and team Elo ratings.....pot 3 yields an average expected opponent Elo of 1874 while 4 yields 1899, so 3 looks better...

So statistically, being in Pot 3 is still a slightly better outcome.

A win is also good for our rating long-term, confidence, etc...

Go for the win. 💪

Edited March 30, 2022 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[El Diego]

6 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

A reply to that Pots tweet states:

Combining...probabilities with qualification forecasts and team Elo ratings.....pot 3 yields an average expected opponent Elo of 1874 while 4 yields 1899, so 3 looks better...

So statistically, being in Pot 3 is still a slightly better outcome.

A win is also good for our rating long-term, confidence, etc...

Go for the win. 💪

I agree with you -- I am in the camp that Pot 4 teams are noticeably easier than Pot 3 teams. The idea that somehow only who we draw in Pot 1 or Pot 2 is what matters strikes me as bunk.

I was simply surprised that the difference in chance to draw Qatar was so small based on what people were saying before (and that the chances appear slightly better as a Pot 4 team!)

[costarg]

2 hours ago, El Diego said:

I agree with you -- I am in the camp that Pot 4 teams are noticeably easier than Pot 3 teams. The idea that somehow only who we draw in Pot 1 or Pot 2 is what matters strikes me as bunk.

I was simply surprised that the difference in chance to draw Qatar was so small based on what people were saying before (and that the chances appear slightly better as a Pot 4 team!)

I thought it was agreed that drawing the "weaker" home team isn't the better option vs another pot 1 team?  At least that's what history suggests.  

[rdb9ty]

7 hours ago, frmr said:

The argument is self-evident, there is a small statistical advantage of being in pot 3 due a higher likelihood of getting a weaker pot 4 team, which gives us a higher probability of advancing from the group. I'm not sure why we're even discussing this. If you think pot 4 is actually stronger than pot 3, then that's a different story altogether, but I personally don't, and that's not what you're saying either.

Pretty sure I literally said that in my first post that you quoted lol. I think 3 and 4 are identical and there are some teams in 4 I'd rather avoid. Not to mention we have a higher chance of facing Qatar if were pot 4. 

[El Diego]

11 minutes ago, costarg said:

I thought it was agreed that drawing the "weaker" home team isn't the better option vs another pot 1 team?  At least that's what history suggests.  

I've heard this argument in general, and while I haven't done a deep dive, I would need some things answered before I accepted this. My reservations about this conclusion is that Qatar is a very weak host nation, historically (most hosts were Pot 1 teams, anyway). Probably on par with USA (made it through in 3rd place) and South Africa (didn't make it out). Korea and Japan you could argue, maybe Russia? Even with those three teams I think you could argue it wasn't really an upset they made it out of the group, even if you didn't factor in the home field advantage.

I would agree that hosting gives you a significant bump, but in Qatar's case I am not convinced that bump puts them above any other Pot 1 team.

[Cblake]

Premiering Tonight on a television, computer, phone, however you may be watching. 

[Trois Reds]

I'd rather be in Pot 3.  If I'm being told we have an 85% chance of NOT drawing Qatar in Pot 3 versus an 84% chance if we were in Pot 4, I wouldn't even blink. That's pretty miniscule.  The teams in Pot 3 are stronger overall, too.

[VinceA]

Ultimately I don't find Pot 4 to be much of a difference.

We should be testing oruselves to see if we can beat the likes of South Korea.

[Kent]

So Pot 4 it is.

Regarding the host topic. Since the 32 team format, the hosts have advanced out of the group 85.7% of the time. 3 of the hosts in that time were Brazil, Germany, and France, which realistically are usually Pot 1 teams anyways. If we remove them from the equation the weaker hosts have advanced out of the group 75% of the time.

In those same World Cups, Pot 1 (non-host) teams advanced out of the group 82.9% of the time (34 advanced, 7 did not). If you want to include Brazil, Germany, and France from their hosting years, the number becomes 84%.

The interesting part is how defending champions have done! In 32 team World Cups, the defending champions have made it out of the group 2 out of 6 times, for just 33%! Both times it was done was Brazil (1998 and 2006). So maybe we want to draw France from Pot 1 and second choice is Qatar.

From a player perspective, I think it was KJ that was asking some players which team they would like to draw in the World Cup (just in general, nothing to do with pots). A few of them said Argentina or Portugal because they wanted a chance to play against "him". I have to admit, that thought gave me some goosebumps. Off the top of my head, Davies and David (I assume David has) have played against Messi. Has anyone else? Has anyone played against Ronaldo?

Edited March 31, 2022 by Kent

[narduch]

13 minutes ago, Kent said:

So Pot 4 it is.

Regarding the host topic. Since the 32 team format, the hosts have advanced out of the group 85.7% of the time. 3 of the hosts in that time were Brazil, Germany, and France, which realistically are usually Pot 1 teams anyways. If we remove them from the equation the weaker hosts have advanced out of the group 75% of the time.

In those same World Cups, Pot 1 (non-host) teams advanced out of the group 82.9% of the time (34 advanced, 7 did not). If you want to include Brazil, Germany, and France from their hosting years, the number becomes 84%.

The interesting part is how defending champions have done! In 32 team World Cups, the defending champions have made it out of the group 2 out of 6 times, for just 33%! Both times it was done was Brazil (1998 and 2006). So maybe we want to draw France from Pot 1 and second choice is Qatar.

From a player perspective, I think it was KJ that was asking some players which team they would like to draw in the World Cup (just in general, nothing to do with pots). A few of them said Argentina or Portugal because they wanted a chance to play against "him". I have to admit, that thought gave me some goosebumps. Off the top of my head, Davies and David (I assume David has) have played against Messi. Has anyone else? Has anyone played against Ronaldo?

Atiba played against Ronaldo in 2005.

https://www.11v11.com/matches/portugal-v-canada-26-march-2005-254443/

Edited March 31, 2022 by narduch

[eramosat]

2 hours ago, narduch said:

Atiba played against Ronaldo in 2005.

https://www.11v11.com/matches/portugal-v-canada-26-march-2005-254443/

I hadn't really thought of that angle for Canada's squaddies...I guess there is a fair bit of potential star-gazing/embarrassing development to consider.  Playing against the very, very best...that will be something special for them.