The Race for Pot 3

[rdb9ty]

7 hours ago, frmr said:

Right, so because there's a chance that we could draw Brazil and Germany, we shouldn't care about what pot we're in or about maximizing our statistical advantages. Got it, good logic. Better get Herdman on the phone and let him know your hypothesis.

I mean you could make an actual argument instead of mocking me...but you dont have one so it's all good lmao

[Approve My Account Pls]

 

[Mattd97]

4 minutes ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

 

I dont think it's in this group of players or herdmans soul to not try to win a game. So we'll let the cards fall where they may

[zeelaw]

35 minutes ago, Califax said:

^

Man I would kill for a friendly in a European city on a sunny day this summer / fall. I'd travel for that.

Almost takes the sting away from the world cup being in a hell hole in the middle of winter. 

Funny, my wife dared me to if I'd ask to go to Qatar and I said no. But maybe a friendly on a Southern European country, or even London - she was all for that.

[TGAA_Star]

If we beat Panama, we go into Pot 3 but that is only if we can beat Panama tonight

[Kyle_The_Hill]

8 minutes ago, TGAA_Star said:

If we beat Panama, we go into Pot 3 but that is only if we can beat Panama tonight

0 value add TGAA comments are back!

I'll give you a slide for a week after the hex you put on Nigeria though.

[Approve My Account Pls]

18 minutes ago, Mattd97 said:

I dont think it's in this group of players or herdmans soul to not try to win a game. So we'll let the cards fall where they may

I agree, I'm all for going for it and seeing how it unfolds. Just found the numbers pretty interesting

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

0 value add TGAA comments are back!

I'll give you a slide for a week after the hex you put on Nigeria though.

I won't lie, they've started to make my day 

Edited March 30, 2022 by Approve My Account Pls

[archer21]

24 minutes ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

 

Still probably prefer Pot 3 but I have to say, 24% Peru is not ideal. Hopefully the Asian team takes them out.

[dyslexic nam]

39 minutes ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

0 value add TGAA comments are back!

I'll give you a slide for a week after the hex you put on Nigeria though.

I don’t even see them anymore so I appreciate people quoting the gems like that one. 

[Obinna]

Re: Guyon's tweet.

This is getting a little silly. Canada is not going to choose to lose or draw. There is no universe where that happens. This group is going for the win, as always. If winning puts us in pot 3 and the draw is more difficult, so be it. We never, ever, play for a draw or a loss. That's not who we are.

[Gian-Luca]

With all the results yesterday, I believe that other than Qatar, there will be no debutants at this World Cup unless the Solomon Islands can upset both NZ and then whoever finishes 4th in Concacaf. We are the closest thing to a debutante after that as we have had a longer drought heading into this tournament than any other team (even Scotland if they make it in).

[CanadaFan123]

1 minute ago, Gian-Luca said:

With all the results yesterday, I believe that other than Qatar, there will be no debutants at this World Cup unless the Solomon Islands can upset both NZ and then whoever finishes 4th in Concacaf. We are the closest thing to a debutante after that as we have had a longer drought heading into this tournament than any other team (even Scotland if they make it in).

Wales could still qualify and they haven't been in since 1958.

[apbsmith]

4 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Uruguay, we don't want to play them. 

...

I am not saying I'd prefer to play Spain, because we won't see the ball, so their CBs are not that important; England I wouldn't mind, though I think there is a mentality thing I'd like to avoid there too, any of the top teams oblige you to do something monumental to beat them (the US, Mexico, they are not top teams). 

You are 100% correct, Uruguay would be a very difficult rival and like you, I would definitely prefer some of the other teams in pot 2.

I'll admit, I got a bit ahead of myself in my post re: South America teams with pot 3 vs pot 4 team discussion. I was mainly refering to Peru or Ecuador that I would be okay with in pot 4 (if we win today). Of course, I would prefer an easier pot 4 team but I would not be devastated either if we ended up with either Peru or Ecuador.  

Going back to your post, the only thing that worries me about playing England is not actually playing them in open play but the fact England are top class when it comes to set pieces. They set the record at the last World Cup and are very efficient and clinical on set pieces.  Despite "Smith" in my name (I am not an English fan and my lineage is quite French), so I'd like to think I made that point from a somewhat neutral perspective.

Let's just say, our set piece defending is one area at the World Cup I am very anxious about. Especially at the World Cup where the margins for success become so fine.  Fortunately our boss is meticulous and excellent at preparation so I would expect us to greatly improve our set piece defending going into the summer and fall. 

Aside, this entire thread still has me mind blown. 2-3 years ago we were discussing how we were going to back door into the world cup via the interncontinental playoff being ranked #7-#8 in CONCACAF, now here we are....

[frmr]

1 hour ago, rdb9ty said:

I mean you could make an actual argument instead of mocking me...but you dont have one so it's all good lmao

The argument is self-evident, there is a small statistical advantage of being in pot 3 due a higher likelihood of getting a weaker pot 4 team, which gives us a higher probability of advancing from the group. I'm not sure why we're even discussing this. If you think pot 4 is actually stronger than pot 3, then that's a different story altogether, but I personally don't, and that's not what you're saying either.

[apbsmith]

11 hours ago, Free kick said:

Interesting that:

Peru finished 5th and advances with a record of 7W-3D-8L.  (24 pts)

Colombia finished 6th and is eliminated with a record of 5W-8D-5L. (23 Pts).

Had the "3pts for a win" rule not been instituted in soccer, its would have been Colombia advancing as they would have more points.   You can argue this one either way whether it should be three pts or two pts for a win, but this is one example where three pts for wins is less fair. To me, Its Colombia that has the better record.

 

Good points ... However to play devils advocate a bit you could say Colombia choked hard at their home game in Barranquilla vs Peru. 

Colombia had Peru on the ropes the entire match at home and squandered multiple chances. I think Colombia had almost 70% possession and  something like 25+ shots, not many on target , but still. 

Then Peru burried one the final 5 minutes for all 3 road points. 

When Colombia looks back that game in January is the clear game changer. 

Edited March 30, 2022 by apbsmith
Choked not chocked

[apbsmith]

8 hours ago, Neil R. said:

On the possibility of getting Qatar's group, that option may not even exist by the time they get to our pot, whichever one that is. If the first ball out of pot 2 is the US or Mexico, it's case closed on Group A for us.

Can US or Mexico jump to pot 1? 

Probably been answered already so my bad. 

However, that could significantly change our odds for drawing Qatar aka South Africa 2.0

[theaub]

3 minutes ago, apbsmith said:

Can US or Mexico jump to pot 1? 

Probably been answered already so my bad. 

However, that could significantly change our odds for drawing Qatar aka South Africa 2.0

Nope they are locked into 2 (barring extreme stupidity tonight).

[Unnamed Trialist]

36 minutes ago, apbsmith said:

You are 100% correct, Uruguay would be a very difficult rival and like you, I would definitely prefer some of the other teams in pot 2.

I'll admit, I got a bit ahead of myself in my post re: South America teams with pot 3 vs pot 4 team discussion. I was mainly refering to Peru or Ecuador that I would be okay with in pot 4 (if we win today). Of course, I would prefer an easier pot 4 team but I would not be devastated either if we ended up with either Peru or Ecuador.  

Going back to your post, the only thing that worries me about playing England is not actually playing them in open play but the fact England are top class when it comes to set pieces. They set the record at the last World Cup and are very efficient and clinical on set pieces.  Despite "Smith" in my name (I am not an English fan and my lineage is quite French), so I'd like to think I made that point from a somewhat neutral perspective.

Let's just say, our set piece defending is one area at the World Cup I am very anxious about. Especially at the World Cup where the margins for success become so fine.  Fortunately our boss is meticulous and excellent at preparation so I would expect us to greatly improve our set piece defending going into the summer and fall. 

Aside, this entire thread still has me mind blown. 2-3 years ago we were discussing how we were going to back door into the world cup via the interncontinental playoff being ranked #7-#8 in CONCACAF, now here we are....

I agree, I'd take Peru or Ecuador any day; Uruguay, less. 

My real point is that certain teams have winning mentality and believe they have to get into the quarter finals or else, and I prefer not to have to face them in a group stage. I also don't mind playing a team with one good player (Wales), but if they have 3-4 top players, like say Croatia, I'd prefer not to see them.

Nations League still bothers me, because really, this June should be the time to go play Netherlands and Morocco, say, instead of seeing familiar faces again. The early qualified teams from Europe just had two friendlies, some vs. African teams even, and that means they are already a step ahead in prep.

I went to Spain-Albania last Saturday, and sure, Spain has a lot of work to do still, but at least they are seeing that now. They played two third level sides, Albania Iceland. Then they can ramp things up later, they have a nice curve to allow them to prep over at least 3 windows. We won't have that at all. 

 

[MM3/MM2/MM]

1 hour ago, Obinna said:

Re: Guyon's tweet.

This is getting a little silly. Canada is not going to choose to lose or draw. There is no universe where that happens. This group is going for the win, as always. If winning puts us in pot 3 and the draw is more difficult, so be it. We never, ever, play for a draw or a loss. That's not who we are.

Though we used to, I remember Mitchell being satisfied with a draw when it basically eliminated us and Floro always played for a draw.  Herdman has changed that mentality completely.

[Gian-Luca]

52 minutes ago, CanadaFan123 said:

Wales could still qualify and they haven't been in since 1958.

Good catch. I had thought they were in the previous one, but I'm starting to get to the age where the World Cup & the Euros are starting get mixed up in my mind, and it was the Euros I was thinking of when it came to Wales in a major tourney.

[Shway]

2 hours ago, zeelaw said:

Funny, my wife dared me to if I'd ask to go to Qatar and I said no. But maybe a friendly on a Southern European country, or even London - she was all for that.

Great idea!
Now I hope this is the case so that I can package this with a visit to my other brother in the UK. 

Just don't see how feasible it'll be with the June window...unless!!! We play a B team, and send the A team to Europe!

[eramosat]

4 hours ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

 

Wow!  I don't know how the Twitter OP determined the odds, but if correct, that puts Canada's chances in blunt terms. 

If Canada is placed into POT3, it means a slightly WORSE chance of drawing Qatar, plus an almost 25% chance of drawing the winner of Peru/Australia/UAE, the single most likely drawn opponent from both tables.  Crazy. 

Edited March 30, 2022 by eramosat
error

[Cadeau]

The pot 3 or pot 4 possibilities are driving me to drink 

[El Diego]

35 minutes ago, eramosat said:

Wow!  I don't know how the Twitter OP determined the odds, but if correct, that puts Canada's chances in blunt terms. 

If Canada is placed into POT3, it means a slightly better chance of drawing Qatar, plus an almost 25% chance of drawing the winner of Peru/Australia/UAE, the single most likely drawn opponent from both tables.  Crazy. 

Am I misreading something? Isn't this saying that being placed in Pot 4 actually gives us a 1.5% greater chance of drawing Qatar?

[eramosat]

9 minutes ago, El Diego said:

Am I misreading something? Isn't this saying that being placed in Pot 4 actually gives us a 1.5% greater chance of drawing Qatar?

You're right!  Fixing.