The Race for Pot 3

[SpursFlu]

22 minutes ago, VinceA said:

One thing I will say Ecuador's team is young and hungry, and with a high ceiling. Lot's of young players on good teams. They could very well be the surprise of the tournament.

Yah don't sleep on Ecuador. Even just watching their club teams recently without knowing much about who's on their national team, they play a really dynamic style. I'm not exactly sure why that country is really seeing an uptick in talent

Edited March 30, 2022 by SpursFlu

[rdb9ty]

Can anyone explain to me the obsession with Pot 3 vs 4? Am I missing something? I think either way unless we're drawn in Qatar's group, we're going to find it difficult to advance beyond the group stage. 

Taking a look at some Pot 3 vs 4 teams, I could argue you'd want to avoid some of those in Pot 4 more than those in 3. In any case, they're pretty evenly matched imo. 

[Gian-Luca]

Peru is still on track to qualify, must be nice to do that having lost more games than you've won...

[apbsmith]

Maybe it's just me, but I find aside from Brazil and Argentina there is now a significant gap in that region. 

Not going to be easy but I wouldn't mind any of the other 3 South American teams. I'm not even sure Peru will advance via the playoff. 

[cornerkick]

Uruguay did this earlier today vs Chile:  😳

 

[apbsmith]

Just now, cornerkick said:

Uruguay did this earlier today vs Chile:  😳

 

Why are the defenders backing away when the ball is in the air??? 

[Addona]

12 minutes ago, apbsmith said:

Why are the defenders backing away when the ball is in the air??? 

Because they were afraid of getting bitten!

[prairiecanuck]

39 minutes ago, rdb9ty said:

Can anyone explain to me the obsession with Pot 3 vs 4? Am I missing something? I think either way unless we're drawn in Qatar's group, we're going to find it difficult to advance beyond the group stage. 

Taking a look at some Pot 3 vs 4 teams, I could argue you'd want to avoid some of those in Pot 4 more than those in 3. In any case, they're pretty evenly matched imo. 

You need to go watch Herman Edwards and his you play to win the game speech.  That's a rather defeatist attitude. 

[Dre_03]

No doubt It was a great finish by Suarez however Uruguay went 4+ games without scoring goal in qualifying and I believe were held scoreless in 7 matches. Cavani and him are at tail ends of their careers and while capable finishers, they aren't the threat they once were. I'd take Uruguay over Ecuador. Obviously Argentina and Brasil are powerhouses.

[red card]

6 hours ago, eramosat said:

Hey, regular CAF watchers...is that at all usual, the laser show in Senegal?  I already thought a lot of the footie from the CAF qualifying was trash...better in AFCON.  Just a massive foul and dive show.  I know it is on the edge play, and teams have to play tight what with the qualifying format, but it wasn't really much of anything to watch. 

And that Senegal fanshow, although it's hard to know how much it affected players, was pretty poor, yah?.

It seems to be more common with the North African nations in both club and national team football.

Egypt used lasers here and there against Senegal in the their first leg and won. This probably led to a coordinated campaign by Senegal fans to blitz Egypt with lasers in the second leg. But I haven't seen at this level of fervour.

For those who missed the match, I posted this previously in a World Soccer section.

 

[frmr]

1 hour ago, rdb9ty said:

Can anyone explain to me the obsession with Pot 3 vs 4? Am I missing something? I think either way unless we're drawn in Qatar's group, we're going to find it difficult to advance beyond the group stage. 

Taking a look at some Pot 3 vs 4 teams, I could argue you'd want to avoid some of those in Pot 4 more than those in 3. In any case, they're pretty evenly matched imo. 

Fine margins in football. Any small statistical advantage can make the difference. Not that I think pot 3 vs pot 4 is a small statistical advantage. I think it would be a fairly significant advantage if you compared the two pots when they're finalized.

[Free kick]

Interesting that:

Peru finished 5th and advances with a record of 7W-3D-8L.  (24 pts)

Colombia finished 6th and is eliminated with a record of 5W-8D-5L. (23 Pts).

Had the "3pts for a win" rule not been instituted in soccer, its would have been Colombia advancing as they would have more points.   You can argue this one either way whether it should be three pts or two pts for a win, but this is one example where three pts for wins is less fair. To me, Its Colombia that has the better record.

 

Edited March 30, 2022 by Free kick

[ted]

8 hours ago, theaub said:

No one told me the World Cup involved math.

[rdb9ty]

1 hour ago, prairiecanuck said:

You need to go watch Herman Edwards and his you play to win the game speech.  That's a rather defeatist attitude. 

I'm not the one that's going to be in Qatar playing on the pitch. It matters what the boys in the locker room believe and how they perform. Having said that, yes, I do think we'll struggle against non-CONCACAF opponents. Is that shocking? I'm over the moon we've qualified but let's be real, this is probably the weakest the US/Mexico have been in ages.

[rdb9ty]

30 minutes ago, frmr said:

Fine margins in football. Any small statistical advantage can make the difference. Not that I think pot 3 vs pot 4 is a small statistical advantage. I think it would be a fairly significant advantage if you compared the two pots when they're finalized.

I think there's a marginal difference between teams in Pots 3 and 4. Like I said, Pots 1 and 2 are all that really matter in our chances of qualifying for the R16 and those chances take a serious hit if we don't draw Qatar.

[Free kick]

2 minutes ago, rdb9ty said:

I think there's a marginal difference between teams in Pots 3 and 4. 

This wasnt the case 4 months ago.   At that time you could distinctly see a difference in pedigree between pot 3 and 4 sides.  There definitely was a case then to strive for pot 3.  

Now,  since the January window,  I too see little (if any) difference between pot 3 and 4

[frmr]

9 minutes ago, rdb9ty said:

I think there's a marginal difference between teams in Pots 3 and 4. Like I said, Pots 1 and 2 are all that really matter in our chances of qualifying for the R16 and those chances take a serious hit if we don't draw Qatar.

Pots 1 and 2 are definitely not all that matter in our chances. We need to beat the pot 3/4 team, and a marginal difference in the quality of that opponent can be the difference between one point and three points in that game.

Edited March 30, 2022 by frmr

[rdb9ty]

3 minutes ago, frmr said:

Pots 1 and 2 are definitely not all that matter in our chances. We need to beat the pot 3/4 team, and a marginal difference in the quality of that opponent can be the difference between one point and three points in that game.

Mate, I could take exactly what you said and just flip it. If we stand any chance of progressing we would likely have to beat one of the teams from Pots 1 and 2 as well. If we draw Brazil and Germany who fuckin cares who we get from Pot 3/4 lol

[frmr]

6 minutes ago, rdb9ty said:

Mate, I could take exactly what you said and just flip it. If we stand any chance of progressing we would likely have to beat one of the teams from Pots 1 and 2 as well. If we draw Brazil and Germany who fuckin cares who we get from Pot 3/4 lol

Right, so because there's a chance that we could draw Brazil and Germany, we shouldn't care about what pot we're in or about maximizing our statistical advantages. Got it, good logic. Better get Herdman on the phone and let him know your hypothesis.

[Neil R.]

On the possibility of getting Qatar's group, that option may not even exist by the time they get to our pot, whichever one that is. If the first ball out of pot 2 is the US or Mexico, it's case closed on Group A for us.

Edited March 30, 2022 by Neil R.

[Unnamed Trialist]

7 hours ago, apbsmith said:

Maybe it's just me, but I find aside from Brazil and Argentina there is now a significant gap in that region. 

Not going to be easy but I wouldn't mind any of the other 3 South American teams. I'm not even sure Peru will advance via the playoff. 

Uruguay, we don't want to play them. 

I realise a lot here don't watch their players much. Araujo the CB is excellent, together with Godin, however old he is, or Giménez, they are a tough defence and could make it hard for us. Frankly I don't think the England or Spain defenders are better. 

Then look at their attacking options, Suárez and if he goes Stuani, they are old but still deadly, like Cavani. Suarez beats up on Vitoria then subs out and they stick in Cavani. Then they have younger talents like Darwin Nuñez, Valverde in behind. I realise they are aged in areas, but they damn tough, and the mentality is terrible. 

I am not saying I'd prefer to play Spain, because we won't see the ball, so their CBs are not that important; England I wouldn't mind, though I think there is a mentality thing I'd like to avoid there too, any of the top teams oblige you to do something monumental to beat them (the US, Mexico, they are not top teams). 

If you asked me if I prefer Denmark/Poland or Uruguay, I'd take the European teams. 

[Unnamed Trialist]

5 hours ago, Free kick said:

This wasnt the case 4 months ago.   At that time you could distinctly see a difference in pedigree between pot 3 and 4 sides.  There definitely was a case then to strive for pot 3.  

Now,  since the January window,  I too see little (if any) difference between pot 3 and 4

This, but I also think that going in as a third tier seed helps. It raises the standard, and makes you think: the Pot 4 team, well that has to be a W. 

Then you try to get a point from whoever you draw in from the better pots. I know 4 points does not usually get you through, so to be honest: getting 5 or 6 points, extremely tough no matter how you look at it. 

In the last WC Argentina went through with 4 points in a group where Croatia won every match, then Japan went through with 4, tied with Senegal but favoured by the dumb-ass "fair-play" rule. 

Either you want a group with one clear power and the rest accessible, or a group where every team is well-matched. Having a weak team that you beat and everyone beats does not really help you and could hurt if GD comes into play.

[Sal333]

2 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

This, but I also think that going in as a third tier seed helps. It raises the standard, and makes you think: the Pot 4 team, well that has to be a W. 

Then you try to get a point from whoever you draw in from the better pots. I know 4 points does not usually get you through, so to be honest: getting 5 or 6 points, extremely tough no matter how you look at it. 

In the last WC Argentina went through with 4 points in a group where Croatia won every match, then Japan went through with 4, tied with Senegal but favoured by the dumb-ass "fair-play" rule. 

Either you want a group with one clear power and the rest accessible, or a group where every team is well-matched. Having a weak team that you beat and everyone beats does not really help you and could hurt if GD comes into play.

I think the friendlies we will play between now and November will accomplish three things.

1) It will set the bar for this team. This is an extremely young team if we discount Milan, Atiba, and Vitoria. So they don't really know their peak. Look at what has happened to Johnston, Buchanan and Adekugbe in the last year. They went from virtual unknowns to core players on the team.  I know it's not a whole year before the start of the WC but I think we'll get a few more surprises by the time November rolls around. Either a new player emerges ( e.g. Kone) or one of the depth players develops into a standout (e.g. Millar, Fraser or Cornelius).

2) It will tell our coaching staff where we need to improve.

3) I think one of the factors that contributed to this team's success is that over the last year they played more games than any other team in the region. That gave them a chance to gel as a cohesive whole.

So I'll wait to see what this team does with those friendlies. At the start of this WC qualifying I felt this team could make it to the round of 16.  Once they play the friendlies I'll make a prediction on whether they can go past the knockout round or I'll just steal @ MtlMario 's crystall ball.

Edited March 30, 2022 by Sal333

[Califax]

^

Man I would kill for a friendly in a European city on a sunny day this summer / fall. I'd travel for that.

Almost takes the sting away from the world cup being in a hell hole in the middle of winter. 

Edited March 30, 2022 by Califax

[AvroArrow]

10 hours ago, JamboAl said:

This thread seems so surreal.  Last year, we were crapping ourselves about Suriname and the danger they posed.  And now we aren’t even bothered by getting The Netherlands in the World Cup. Talking about extremes. 

Simple:  the team that Nigael Hasselbaink plays for is scarier than the one Jimmy Floyd played for.