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The Race for Pot 3


Miche

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6 minutes ago, IT20062021 said:

I thought the same thing. Pretty sure Concacaf champion leagues does not consider that goal as an away goal, because the overtime is for both legs, not just the game in Algeria, therefore being neutral. I remember it being discussed few years ago when MTL impact were involved.

Sure, the specifics of the away goal rule varies by tournament.  So I looked it up.  Perhaps the commentator on the official FIFA feed could have done the same.   

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1 hour ago, TGAA_Star said:

LMAOOOOO my brother 🇬🇭🇬🇭🇬🇭🇬🇭🇬🇭🇬🇭😭🤣 I can eat humble pie all day every day as I'm sure to hear it from all of you and I can take it...yeah the boys proved me wrong and qualified especially when I had no faith whatsoever in the Black Stars but they did it by hook or by crook they did it

Hahahaha, cheers bro! Let's celebrate the fact that we've got both Canada and Ghana to cheer for in this world cup. Let's hope they don't face each other...until the finals of course 😏

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10 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

I took this off someone else's Twitter, but still, the simulator has in there already.

 

FPDQvqBUYAIpT6M.jpg.e6607e0ec8f8bcc0fd1716b8ed588f59.jpg

That's hilarious!  I mean, can you imagine - we would actually be favoured to get to the Round of 16 with that group.  (The other groups (e.g. Group C) would not be much fun though  ☠️

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1 hour ago, theaub said:

I disagree with KJ for multiple reasons 

  • Pot 3 gives you a 40% chance of ending up in a group with Qatar or Saudi Arabia
  • Don't think Ecuador is anything special away from Quito
  • Don't think Wales are any better than Poland (so that offsets)
  • Colombia/Peru are likely the best of anyone in Pot 3/4 but IMO more than offset by having better draw potential with Saudis/Ghana + Algeria/Cameroon.

this

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48 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Just went back to look at the first post in the thread, nice work @Miche

BTW, for that first post, done 7 weeks ago, he got 10 likes and 4 laughs. Well nobody's laughing now. 

On top of that, the analysis still holds up pretty well, good job.

Yes, shoutout to @Miche!

We can now compute the probabilities of drawing QAT.

Assuming USA and MEX qualify

If we're in Pot 3, as Miche calculated, it is 15%.

If we're in Pot 4, however, it's more complicated than just 75%*1/6 = 12.5%:
- 1 chance out of 4 MEX/USA draws QAT: in this case, our chance is 0
- 3 chances out of 40 URU draws QAT and neither Pot 3 UEFA teams draws QAT: in this case, our chance is also 0 because there must be at least 1 UEFA team in each pot - so UEFA wildcard would be slotted into Group A
- 1 chance out of 20 URU and a Pot 3 UEFA team draw QAT: in this case, our chance is 20% since ECU would not be allowed to draw QAT
- 1 chance out of 4 both Pot 2 and Pot 3 teams drawing QAT are from UEFA: in this case, our chance is 20% since UEFA wildcard would not be allowed to draw QAT
- 3 chances out of 8 a Pot 2 UEFA team and a Pot 3 CAF team draw QAT: in this case, our chance is 25% since the two Pot 4 CAF teams would not be allowed to draw QAT
Overall probability: 1/20*20% + 1/4*20% + 3/8*25% = 15.375%

Notice what happened: contrary to what we've been thinking, the probability of drawing QAT is actually higher in Pot 4 than in Pot 3 due to all the rules...

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Regardless of which pot we end up in, love what the MLS Extra-Time crew had to say about Canada and WC groups:

1) Which ever group we end up in will be THE group of death

2) They're really looking forward to watching some "big time" soccer nation take us lightly (cough cough England) and get the SH%& counter attacked out of them.

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8 hours ago, TGAA_Star said:

Ghana is doing nothing today against Nigeria period. Ghana is losing to Nigeria today in Abuja. Just watch just watch. Ghana will F it up today I am personally guaranteeing Nigeria wins today.

🤣🤣🤣

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Just enjoyed a day of strolling through the older parts of Panama City. Just caught up with this thread. That was a fun read.

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Should we go to a print shop here and try to get a "POT 3" sign made?

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3 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

🤣🤣🤣

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Just enjoyed a day of strolling through the older parts of Panama City. Just caught up with this thread. That was a fun read.

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Should we go to a print shop here and try to get a "POT 3" sign made?

You should read all his posts, he's a Ghana fan. Very funny the whole way. 

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35 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

🤣🤣🤣

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Just enjoyed a day of strolling through the older parts of Panama City. Just caught up with this thread. That was a fun read.

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Should we go to a print shop here and try to get a "POT 3" sign made?

Has it been decriminalized down there yet? 

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Does pot really matter? I mean the FIFA rankings are clearly not a representation of how good a team is, if so Mexico & USA should NOT be in pot 2 atm. Were still playing harder and easier teams, Does the pot really matter that much?

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Putting the Pot aside for a moment, how do y'all feel about our team's ability to compete in Qatar?  We'll be in tough, obviously, but doesn't that sort of play to our well-organized team defense and blazing counter attack?  I mean, we're certain to play a team or three who will dominate possession, and if we can keep our shape, stay tidy in possession, and be ruthless on the counter, we might just have some success.  I feel that we've been preparing for the very sort of football we're going to need to play.

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