The Race for Pot 3

[Jedi Ram]

5 minutes ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

 

Took a while to figure out the flag countries.  Are you by any chance friends with Sheldon and Amy from The Flag Show ?

[fookisan]

15 minutes ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

 

Honestly, as long as we dodge Germany from Pot 2 I'm okay with it

I am ok drawing Germany as long as we get Qatar as well. This way phonzie can play against his mates 

[TOCanada115]

Man, Pot 2 is brutal. We can’t play the US or Mexico. I don’t want Netherlands, Germany, Denmark (very underrated), or Switzerland in our group. Leaves only Uruguay, or Croatia for me to be happy with. 
 

Having said that, if you offered me Qatar, but you get one of those 4 good pot 2 teams, I’d take it in a heartbeat. 

Edited March 29, 2022 by TOCanada115

[SpursFlu]

I'll take Switzerland personally 

[TOCanada115]

Just now, SpursFlu said:

I'll take Switzerland personally 

It wouldn’t be worst draw with them in it with us. But man, they played Italy tough in both matches in the group, and in the Euros, beat out France and were a shootout away from beating Spain. 

[VinceA]

I wouldn't mind Croatia as they're an older team.

But even if we're in pot 3 there's a high chance we get a tough draw. A number of the team in pot 4 scare me. I think we should brace ourselves for a difficult group. Our real only out is if we get into Group A and the Pot 4 team we get is like Tunisia.

[Allez les Rouges]

Comparing Pots 3 and 4 (teams other than CAN and the team we swap with, i.e. TUN), assuming USA and MEX qualify:

Pot 3
2 UEFA teams: SRB, POL
3 AFC teams: IRN, JPN, KOR
2 CAF teams: SEN, MAR

Pot 4
1 UEFA team: WAL/SCO/UKR
2 likely CONMEBOL teams: ECU, likely PER/COL/CHI
2 CAF teams: ALG/CMR, GHA
1 AFC team: KSA
1 likely CONCACAF team we can't draw: likely CRC

It's close indeed, and Pot 4 could end up with arguably the 2 best of these 14 teams (WAL, PER/COL). But I tend to agree with several earlier comments that the presence of weaker teams in Pot 4 and slightly greater odds of drawing QAT if we're in Pot 3 should outweigh that.

Edited March 29, 2022 by Allez les Rouges
Odds of QAT are actually marginally greater in Pot 4 (!) due to various rules - see my later post.

[Obinna]

I don't think it's a wild take from KJ to suggest no big difference between pot 3 & 4.

Aside from Poland and perhaps Serbia, nobody worries me. I think we'd match up well against Japan, Morocco or Iran. They are good all around without having players I would specifically worry about. South Korea, like Poland, does have one very special player, so I could put them in the Poland/Serbia category, I guess.

In pot 4, there is Algeria, who I would want to avoid for the same reasons I would want to avoid South Korea or Poland. The rest are beatable though.

So in short, I would say pot 3 gives us better odds, but I think there's a way bigger drop off between pots 2 & 3 than 3 & 4.

Another thing to consider: NZ can theoretically beat Costa Rica, so that strengthens the case for getting into Pot 3. I know most people fancy CR, but I see that as a coin flip. 

[sstackho]

Wow, FIFA commentator doesn't even know the tiebreaker rules.  Thought Algeria-Cameroon would go to a shootout.  

[canadasoccer20]

Just no Germany or Netherlands in Pot 2 for me please. The other teams in Pot 2 are very good but those two teams are elite.

[Approve My Account Pls]

WOW that ending for Cameroon-Algeria was insanity 

[SpursFlu]

7 minutes ago, Obinna said:

I don't think it's a wild take from KJ to suggest no big difference between pot 3 & 4.

Aside from Poland and perhaps Serbia, nobody worries me. I think we'd match up well against Japan, Morocco or Iran. They are good all around without having players I would specifically worry about. South Korea, like Poland, does have one very special player, so I could put them in the Poland/Serbia category, I guess.

In pot 4, there is Algeria, who I would want to avoid for the same reasons I would want to avoid South Korea or Poland. The rest are beatable though.

So in short, I would say pot 3 gives us better odds, but I think there's a way bigger drop off between pots 2 & 3 than 3 & 4.

Another thing to consider: NZ can theoretically beat Costa Rica, so that strengthens the case for getting into Pot 3. I know most people fancy CR, but I see that as a coin flip. 

And Australia over whoever. You want to be in the highest pot. It really just gives you the best odds. Plus who are the uefa teams? Scotland, Wales, Ukraine.. ill take that

[The Beaver 2.0]

Is CAF even more CONCACAF than CONCACAF? Like, CONCACAF but on meth?  

[TOCanada115]

3 minutes ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

WOW that ending for Cameroon-Algeria was insanity 

Serves Algeria for time wasting. 30 seconds away from a World Cup… brutal. 

[jonovision]

I want Canada to win tomorrow because winning is cool. Still can't really work about any excitement about the pots. Still hoping we see a lot of the guys from the back half of the roster for at least part of the game.

[Allez les Rouges]

17 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Another thing to consider: NZ can theoretically beat Costa Rica, so that strengthens the case for getting into Pot 3. I know most people fancy CR, but I see that as a coin flip. 

Pretty sure we can't be in the same group as the CONCACAF/OFC placeholder.

[Obinna]

1 minute ago, Allez les Rouges said:

Pretty sure we can't be in the same group as the CONCACAF/OFC placeholder.

Right. That makes sense!

[Unnamed Trialist]

Just went back to look at the first post in the thread, nice work @Miche

BTW, for that first post, done 7 weeks ago, he got 10 likes and 4 laughs. Well nobody's laughing now. 

On top of that, the analysis still holds up pretty well, good job.

[IT20062021]

15 minutes ago, sstackho said:

Wow, FIFA commentator doesn't even know the tiebreaker rules.  Thought Algeria-Cameroon would go to a shootout.  

I thought the same thing. Pretty sure Concacaf champion leagues does not consider that goal as an away goal, because the overtime is for both legs, not just the game in Algeria, therefore being neutral. I remember it being discussed few years ago when MTL impact were involved.

[QBCS]

So a win gets us in? Conufused

[SpursFlu]

1 minute ago, QBCS said:

So a win gets us in? Conufused

We also need Faroe Islands to draw New Caledonia 

[VinceA]

2 minutes ago, QBCS said:

So a win gets us in? Conufused

Yes.

[Unnamed Trialist]

I took this off someone else's Twitter, but still, the simulator has in there already.

 

Edited March 29, 2022 by Unnamed Trialist

[king1010]

Just now, Unnamed Trialist said:

 

 

Put it in my veins

[Unnamed Trialist]

7 minutes ago, QBCS said:

So a win gets us in? Conufused

Donut bee.