The Race for Pot 3

[Trois Reds]

12 hours ago, ballerz said:

What if we are in the same group as Qatar?

Poor Qatar 😄

[Cblake]

LOL, love Craig's response (  :

[Free kick]

Hate to repeat myself but,  why do ppl want to be in a group with Qatar?  

Is it because somehow there is thought that it (playing the host) will be an easier opponent than the other pot 1 sides?  If it is, then you are wrong! Look at the history. 

Edited February 10, 2022 by Free kick

[archer21]

27 minutes ago, Free kick said:

Hate to repeat myself but,  why do ppl want to be in a group with Qatar?  

Is it because somehow there is thought that it (playing the host) will be an easier opponent than the other pot 1 sides?  If it is, then you are wrong! Look at the history. 

I think in general, hosts have had stronger teams than this Qatar team though. Teams like Japan, South Korea, even Russia weren’t exactly juggernauts but they were all solid sides. Qatar are not even ranked in the top 50. If you give me a choice between  Brazil and Qatar, I’m taking Qatar every time.

[CanadaFan123]

40 minutes ago, Free kick said:

Hate to repeat myself but,  why do ppl want to be in a group with Qatar?  

Is it because somehow there is thought that it (playing the host) will be an easier opponent than the other pot 1 sides?  If it is, then you are wrong! Look at the history. 

Qatar is arguably the weakest host nation in World Cup history, while other Pot A teams are giants of world football. As hosts they won't be easy, and especially given the potential corruption angle but chances are much better than facing Brazil, France or Spain. 

 

[Free kick]

1 hour ago, archer21 said:

I think in general, hosts have had stronger teams than this Qatar team though. Teams like Japan, South Korea, even Russia weren’t exactly juggernauts but they were all solid sides. Qatar are not even ranked in the top 50. If you give me a choice between  Brazil and Qatar, I’m taking Qatar every time.

I’ll take Brazil.   Brazil and other similar countries very very rarely go 3-0-0 in the group stage. Italy in 82 won the world cup and in the group stage had all draws and a total on 2 goals in the whole group stage. Against CMR, Per, Pol.

PS.:  i will also dispute that Russia (2018), USA (1994), S. Korea  (2002) were solid sides.  Yet they all advanced.  USA in 1994 was especially weak.   Look at how the invisible hand helped the home sides like Argentina in 78, and S.Korea in 2002.  Thats what you are up against when facing the home side.

PS2: The invisible hand of being the host propelled a mediocre side like SKorea to the WC semi finals in 2002.  A side that 18 months earlier couldnt manage better than a 0-0 draw with Canada at the Gold Cup. 

Edited February 10, 2022 by Free kick

[Kent]

https://www.tsn.ca/why-the-canadian-men-s-spot-in-fifa-world-ranking-matters-1.1757304

[Free kick]

16 minutes ago, Kent said:

https://www.tsn.ca/why-the-canadian-men-s-spot-in-fifa-world-ranking-matters-1.1757304

From reading that authors previous pieces, I find that his work does not show a very deep knowledge of the game, its working and its history.  sound like a bit of a newcomer to covering the sport.  His pieces are fine and welcomed (informed but in a current sense) but they strike me as a bit naive.  Maybe i am wrong.

Edited February 10, 2022 by Free kick

[archer21]

24 minutes ago, Free kick said:

I’ll take Brazil.   Brazil and other similar countries very rarely go 3-0-0 in the group stage.

PS.:  i will also dispute that Russia (2018), USA (1994), S. Korea  (2002) were solid sides.  Yet they all advanced.  USA in 1994 was especially weak.   Look at how the invisible hand helped the home sides like Argentina in 78, and S.Korea in 2002.  Thats what you are up against when facing the home side.

Seems unfair to compare pot 1 teams’ ability to go 3-0-0 vs hosts’ ability to advance out of a group. How often do hosts go 3-0-0?

Also, it was before my time so I can’t say for sure I know the strength of USA in 1994 but they were ranked 23 in the world pre-tournament from a quick google search so they weren’t terrible. Even South Korea was ranked 40 which is better than Qatar. Russia is actually the best example for your case, they were in the 70s I believe before the tourney.

Edited February 10, 2022 by archer21

[johnyb]

Seems like the best comparison would be 2010 South Africa. SA did not advance but did go a respectable 1-1-1. I agree that Qatar will have the crowd support and some favorable calls, but to prefer Brazil to them is a stretch.

[Unnamed Trialist]

The only risk of getting Qatar in a group is that you may not get a fair reffing deal.

But against any of the big sides its the same, they eat refs up and you can also feel hard done by. 

Crowd factor will not be so great, as their fan support is nowhere near as threatening as anything we've seen in Concacaf.

There are basically two theories. 

One says play against the weakest teams possible to have a chance to go through. And then try to get results in every match, don't coast or speculate. We've actually done this in the Octagonal, so we have some experience and the mentality for it. A group with Qatar, Denmark, Canada and Saudi Arabia, for example, is a lot more accessible than replacing Qatar with Argentina or Spain. 

The other theory would say it is better to be in a group where one team will likely take points from all rivals, and you just have to get results in two matches to get out of your group. So Argentina would win three in that hypothetical group, and Canada would not be disfavoured by that: just beat Denmark and Saudi Arabia, only 6 real points in play. 

We are arguing about getting out of a group. It would be a huge success. A goal would be amazing; so would a point; then a win; then getting out of the group. After that, you look at the rival and judge things from there. 

 

[Kent]

OK, I'm going to compare group stage records of the hosts and the other pot A teams for each of the last several World Cups.

2018 World Cup
Russia (Host) - 2nd in group, 6 points, +4 GD. Going by points they were 4th best of the 8 pot 1 teams

2014 World Cup
Brazil (Host) - 1st in group, 7 points, +5 GD. Tied as 4th best team of the 8 pot 1 teams.

2010 World Cup
South Africa (Host) - 3rd in group, 4 points, -2 GD. 7th best team of the 8 pot 1 teams.

2006 World Cup
Germany (Host) - 1st in group, 9 points, +6 GD. Tied for 2nd best team of the 8 pot 1 teams.

2002 World Cup
South Korea (Co-host) - 1st in group, 7 points, +3 GD. Tied for 4th best team of the 8 pot 1 teams.
Japan (Co-host) - 1st in group, 7 points, +3 GD. Tied for 4th best team of the 8 pot 1 teams.

So it looks like Germany and South Africa are the outliers on either end of the spectrum, and that the host team is right at the median for performance of the Pot A teams. That being said, the median for pot A teams still gets out of the group. The worst performing pot A teams end up out of the World Cup completely. 7 pot A teams over these past 5 World Cups failed to get out of the group, counting South Africa.

So hosts failed to get out of the group 1/6 = 16.7% of the time. Non-host pot A teams failed to get out of the group 6/34 = 17.6% of the time.

Looks like it's a bit of a wash to me.

[apbsmith]

Group 1 draw predictions:

Pot 1- Qatar(automatic)

Pot 2- Mexico/USA

Pot 3- Serbia/Wales/CAF team

Pot 4- CAF (African qualifier) or pot 4 euro team if upset

Qatar gets out of the group, just wait for it. We know it's coming 

Edited February 10, 2022 by apbsmith
*if

[JasonDias]

nah nah nah, you all have it wrong. We clearly want to face France. You know the whole Champions curse. aka, Germany (2018), Spain (2014), Italy (2010). 😆

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

32 minutes ago, JasonDias said:

nah nah nah, you all have it wrong. We clearly want to face France. You know the whole Champions curse. aka, Germany (2018), Spain (2014), Italy (2010). 😆

We're taking back the Hotline Bling!   

[footballfreak]

5 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

The only risk of getting Qatar in a group is that you may not get a fair reffing deal.

But against any of the big sides its the same, they eat refs up and you can also feel hard done by. 

Crowd factor will not be so great, as their fan support is nowhere near as threatening as anything we've seen in Concacaf.

There are basically two theories. 

One says play against the weakest teams possible to have a chance to go through. And then try to get results in every match, don't coast or speculate. We've actually done this in the Octagonal, so we have some experience and the mentality for it. A group with Qatar, Denmark, Canada and Saudi Arabia, for example, is a lot more accessible than replacing Qatar with Argentina or Spain. 

The other theory would say it is better to be in a group where one team will likely take points from all rivals, and you just have to get results in two matches to get out of your group. So Argentina would win three in that hypothetical group, and Canada would not be disfavoured by that: just beat Denmark and Saudi Arabia, only 6 real points in play. 

We are arguing about getting out of a group. It would be a huge success. A goal would be amazing; so would a point; then a win; then getting out of the group. After that, you look at the rival and judge things from there. 

 

To piggyback off this thought, it’s not just who we face that matters, but the order we face them in. A strong Pot A team in the third game can become an opportunity if they decide to rest players.

[Free kick]

The point that i have been making all along. is that the hosts (with the exceptions of South Africa in 2010 and Canada at the U20 WC 2007)  always advance.  Somehow it always manages to happen.    And Yes,  as UT mentioned, they get brutally favorable refereeing.  I could give you may examples.   if you ever watch several past WC',  the world feed broadcasters  always mention it.  They are pretty close to employees (for lack of better word) of FIFA.  In other words, they will say what FIFA wants you know and you will hear it often that the tournament will lose its lustre if the hosts do not advance.   

I never said they get a great record in group play.  so if Canada is grouped with Qatar, we are really competing with three other sides for one spot in order to advance.  

Edited February 11, 2022 by Free kick

[ballerz]

I would like to get Qatar if it means we get the opening match and our lads will get the global spotlight. We then demolish the hosts 3-0 with Tajon’s brace, earning him a transfer to Manchester United immediately. All our MLS youngsters moves to good places in Europe.

[eramosat]

On 2/9/2022 at 2:53 PM, Kent said:

Challenge accepted!

I've taken the 25th ranked team's points (Morocco at 1547.38), and the 1st ranked team's points (Belgium at 1828.45). If they keep playing over and over and the lower ranked team keeps winning, and these games are somehow all in the same competition, these are the results.

If the games are in World Cup Qualifying, it would take Morocco 9 straight wins to surpass Belgium (not that they would be ranked first, but they would surpass Belgium because Belgium would drop as Morocco rose).

If the games are in a Continental championship group stage it would take Morocco 7 wins to surpass Belgium.

If the games are in the World Cup group stage it would take Morocco 5 wins to surpass Belgium.

yeah, this seems wrong-ish.  I am not certain how many straight wins over Belgium Morocco would need to cement them as a superior team, but I think it less than 5.  But there are a lot of other games happening at the same time...

I prefer Canada should just disregard the rankings, and try to win the World Cup.  Put aside how hard it is to be ranked #1...like Belgium has!

 

[TGAA_Star]

14 hours ago, johnyb said:

Seems like the best comparison would be 2010 South Africa. SA did not advance but did go a respectable 1-1-1. I agree that Qatar will have the crowd support and some favorable calls, but to prefer Brazil to them is a stretch.

I can definitely see Qatar pulling a South Africa 2010 performance 

[TGAA_Star]

5 hours ago, ballerz said:

I would like to get Qatar if it means we get the opening match and our lads will get the global spotlight. We then demolish the hosts 3-0 with Tajon’s brace, earning him a transfer to Manchester United immediately. All our MLS youngsters moves to good places in Europe.

I too would love it if we got Qatar in the opening game because that is the global spotlight. Everyone in the world will be watching us. I'm talkin everyone from every country worldwide. But also to face the hosts, imagine if we beat Qatar. Then it sends a strong message that Canada is not just here to make up the numbers in Qatar.

[Unnamed Trialist]

9 hours ago, footballfreak said:

To piggyback off this thought, it’s not just who we face that matters, but the order we face them in. A strong Pot A team in the third game can become an opportunity if they decide to rest players.

Good point, true. If your last match is against that powerhouse, they may take it easy, and they may also rest players to avoid cards that could affect their next knockout match. 

We did somewhat the same in the Gold Cup, although it was not exactly the same: we did not push that last group match vs. the States as much as we could have. And another thing related to this: we had Eustaquio take a yellow vs Haiti to be free of cards for quarter finals. 

In the end you can't speculate that match. And I think, @Free kickyou are somewhat overstating the favouritism for home teams--yes, I realise I made the argument, and I still remember Korea-Japan, there was favouritism there for sure. But to a point. 

Edited February 11, 2022 by Unnamed Trialist

[SthMelbRed]

1 hour ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Good point, true. If your last match is against that powerhouse, they may take it easy, and they may also rest players to avoid cards that could affect their next knockout match. 

We did somewhat the same in the Gold Cup, although it was not exactly the same: we did not push that last group match vs. the States as much as we could have. And another thing related to this: we had Eustaquio take a yellow vs Haiti to be free of cards for quarter finals. 

In the end you can't speculate that match. And I think, @Free kickyou are somewhat overstating the favouritism for home teams--yes, I realise I made the argument, and I still remember Korea-Japan, there was favouritism there for sure. But to a point. 

1. Despite the historical records of host countries, I'd still take Qatar over any other Pot 1 country. We're simply better than them, whereas you cannot say that about any of the other top teams.

2. I don't recall any refereeing controversies that helped the USA, Japan, South Africa, or Russia to reach the knockout stages as hosts. I don't even think there were any big incidents in South Korea's favour prior to the Italy game in the Round of 16. Italy, France, Germany and Brazil didn't require outside help to qualify from their groups.

[prairiecanuck]

8 hours ago, Free kick said:

The point that i have been making all along. is that the hosts (with the exceptions of South Africa in 2010 and Canada at the U20 WC 2007)  always advance.  Somehow it always manages to happen.    And Yes,  as UT mentioned, they get brutally favorable refereeing.  I could give you may examples.   if you ever watch several past WC',  the world feed broadcasters  always mention it.  They are pretty close to employees (for lack of better word) of FIFA.  In other words, they will say what FIFA wants you know and you will hear it often that the tournament will lose its lustre if the hosts do not advance.   

I never said they get a great record in group play.  so if Canada is grouped with Qatar, we are really competing with three other sides for one spot in order to advance.  

Yeah, and we could never win in Central America in WCQs until we did.   With the logic you are running with looking at history, we shouldn't have won both our matches last window.  The problem with always looking in the rear view mirror is you might just end up running smack into a deer.

I want Qatar, because they seem to be a somewhat weaker side than most host nations historically have been and if we end up in Pot 4, I believe we are a stronger side than what most nations have had to face in the past from pot 4 teams.  That doesn't mean drawing qatar would be an automatic 3 points in my book.  We could definitely lose, but I have a hard time believing Qatar would be the tougher opponent than England, Brazil, Spain, France, Argentina, Belgium, Portugal/Italy.

[Sal333]

Although, I'm leaning towards  the let's-play-Qatar scenario, I think many of you are forgetting that Qatar had just as good a showing at the Gold Cup as Canada did. I think many of you are underestimating that country.