gigi riva Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 it would be nice if we get into pot 3 but no matter who we face in Qatar it is going to be a massive upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miche Posted March 28, 2022 Author Share Posted March 28, 2022 (edited) As it stands: Pot 3 Pot 4 Sweden 1598 Tunisia 1501.38 Japan 1560 Canada 1494.49 Iran 1559 Algeria 1473 Serbia 1551 Ecuador 1445 Morocco 1543 Saudi Arabia 1431 South Korea 1536 Wales 1588 Egypt 1511.70 Peru (IC) 1552 Nigeria 1506.89 Costa Rica (IC) 1486 •A Canada win over Panama nets us 9.51 pts. for a total of exactly 1504.00 pts. •Edited with some good notes from @Allez les Rouges. •We need TWO of the following: 29 Mar 13:00 Nigeria v Ghana (Leg 1: Ghana 0-0 Nigeria) A Ghana win or a draw with away goals knocks Nigeria out. 29 Mar 13:00 Senegal v Egypt (Leg 1: Egypt 1-0 Senegal) An Egypt win or draw keeps them above us on pts, so they must lose but still advance. i.e. a one-goal loss with an away goal. 29 Mar 14.45 Portugal v North Macedonia North Macedonia advance. 29 Mar 15:30 Morocco v DR Congo (Leg 1: DR Congo 1-1 Morocco) DR Congo must knock out Morocco. 29 Mar 15:30 Tunisia v Mali (Leg 1: Mali 0-1 Tunisia) Any Mali win puts us above Tunisia, even if Tunisia advance on pens*. A draw also gives us a chance to get above Tunisia. *According to FIFA Formula: "In some instances, games end with a winner after regular or extended time, but still include a PSO to determine the team that eventually will get to the next round. These games are treated as normal wins and defeats." Just for funsies, there is a scenario where a Canada draw in Panama stil gets us Pot 3. It involves at least two of Nigeria, Morocco, Tunisia, or Portugal being knocked out. Edited March 29, 2022 by Miche Allez les Rouges, The Beaver 2.0, NVsoccer and 5 others 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
archer21 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 38 minutes ago, Miche said: As it stands: Pot 3 Pot 4 Sweden 1598 Tunisia 1501.38 Japan 1560 Canada 1494.49 Iran 1559 Algeria 1473 Serbia 1551 Ecuador 1445 Morocco 1543 Saudi Arabia 1431 South Korea 1536 Wales 1588 Egypt 1511.70 Peru (IC) 1552 Nigeria 1506.89 Costa Rica (IC) 1486 •A Canada win over Panama nets us 9.51 pts. for a total of exactly 1504.00 pts. •We need TWO of the following: 29 Mar 13:00 Nigeria v Ghana (Leg 1: Ghana 0-0 Nigeria) A Ghana win or a draw with away goals knocks Nigeria out. If it goes to pens at 0-0, Nigeria would drop 2.88 pts*, leaving them at 1504.01. Seriously. They would edge us out by 0.01 pts. 29 Mar 13:00 Senegal v Egypt (Leg 1: Egypt 1-0 Senegal) An Egypt win or draw keeps them above us on pts, so they must lose but still advance. i.e. a one-goal loss with an away goal. 29 Mar 14.45 Portugal v North Macedonia North Macedonia advance. 29 Mar 15:30 Morocco v DR Congo (Leg 1: DR Congo 1-1 Morocco) DR Congo must knock out Morocco. 29 Mar 15:30 Tunisia v Mali (Leg 1: Mali 0-1 Tunisia) Any Mali win puts us above Tunisia, even if Tunisia advance on pens*. *According to FIFA Formula: "In some instances, games end with a winner after regular or extended time, but still include a PSO to determine the team that eventually will get to the next round. These games are treated as normal wins and defeats." I take this to mean that a 0-0 draw after extra time is simply counted as a draw, even if Nigeria win the PSO. Just for funsies, there is a scenario where a Canada draw in Panama stil gets us Pot 3. It involves at least two of Nigeria, Morocco, Tunisia, or Portugal being knocked out, and Algeria/Cameroon drawing. The way I interpret the bolded part is that if there’s a winner and then shootout (because tied on aggregate), then they just go by the winner for fifa points. But if the game is tied (and also tied in aggregate), the result of the shootout determines the fifa points Sal333 and Allez les Rouges 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narduch Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 (edited) The good thing is we will know ahead of time if it is worth going for it v Panama. All the relevant matches take place on Tuesday Edited March 28, 2022 by narduch TOCanada115, Floortom, Miche and 5 others 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOcanadafan Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 It’s amazing a shite team like Mexico has a better shot at Pot 1, than we have at Pot 3. narduch, The Beaver 2.0, CanadianSoccerFan and 5 others 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gian-Luca Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 Not much difference for me between Pot 3 and 4, looking at that list. Ivan, Floortom, narduch and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stryker911 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 (edited) I don't see a drastic difference between the 2 pots. Even more sonif Colombia passes Peru. Part of me wants pot 4 just so we know for sure at the draw who we will be playing against. Edited March 28, 2022 by Stryker911 InBorjanWeTrust, An Observer, mowe and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally McCoist Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 3 hours ago, Gian-Luca said: Not much difference for me between Pot 3 and 4, looking at that list. I agree. The only 2 teams that would I not want to draw are Serbia and Sweden. Knowing that only 1 team from each confederation can be drawn in the same group (except UEFA-2), if we do draw Serbia/Sweden, it either means: (A) Canada has drawn in Qatar's group (B ) Canada is in the group death with a South American team thrown in there somewhere. Using this website for simulating the draw (https://stattosoftware.com/wc2022/), most the simulations I'm doing has Canada in either a group of life, or a group death. The Pot 2 team we draw will determine our fate. mowe and lbula17 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOCanada115 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 3 hours ago, Stryker911 said: I don't see a drastic difference between the 2 pots. Even more sonif Colombia passes Peru. Part of me wants pot 4 just so we know for sure at the draw who we will be playing against. For me, pot 4 is worse than pot 3. If we do get into pot 3, that will mean pot 4 is even worse. The biggest reason for me to get into pot 3, is the chances of getting Qatar in our group goes up significantly. There’s 3 AFC teams in there, and they can’t be grouped with them, giving us a 1/5 chance, compared to 1/7 most likely in pot 4. Having said all that, I don’t think we’re getting 2 of those results tomorrow, plus the win. Hoping to be wrong. Xavier., mowe, Kent and 2 others 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpursFlu Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 (edited) I think pot 3 is clearly tougher than 4 Actually it's not too different but I doubt pot 3 will happen anyways Edited March 28, 2022 by SpursFlu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TGAA_Star Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 Ghana is doing nothing against Nigeria tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lbula17 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 19 minutes ago, TGAA_Star said: Ghana is doing nothing against Nigeria tomorrow I could see a Ghana win, but then again could go either way. kacbru, TGAA_Star and longlugan 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TGAA_Star Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 15 minutes ago, lbula17 said: I could see a Ghana win, but then again could go either way. I doubt it very seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lbula17 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, TGAA_Star said: I doubt it very seriously As we saw with the Italy game, all they need is a lucky goal, and they are in the lead. The key to the match will be scoring first though. Edited March 28, 2022 by lbula17 TGAA_Star 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allez les Rouges Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 15 hours ago, Miche said: As it stands: Pot 3 Pot 4 Sweden 1598 Tunisia 1501.38 Japan 1560 Canada 1494.49 Iran 1559 Algeria 1473 Serbia 1551 Ecuador 1445 Morocco 1543 Saudi Arabia 1431 South Korea 1536 Wales 1588 Egypt 1511.70 Peru (IC) 1552 Nigeria 1506.89 Costa Rica (IC) 1486 •A Canada win over Panama nets us 9.51 pts. for a total of exactly 1504.00 pts. •We need TWO of the following: 29 Mar 13:00 Nigeria v Ghana (Leg 1: Ghana 0-0 Nigeria) A Ghana win or a draw with away goals knocks Nigeria out. If it goes to pens at 0-0, Nigeria would drop 2.88 pts*, leaving them at 1504.01. Seriously. They would edge us out by 0.01 pts. 29 Mar 13:00 Senegal v Egypt (Leg 1: Egypt 1-0 Senegal) An Egypt win or draw keeps them above us on pts, so they must lose but still advance. i.e. a one-goal loss with an away goal. 29 Mar 14.45 Portugal v North Macedonia North Macedonia advance. 29 Mar 15:30 Morocco v DR Congo (Leg 1: DR Congo 1-1 Morocco) DR Congo must knock out Morocco. 29 Mar 15:30 Tunisia v Mali (Leg 1: Mali 0-1 Tunisia) Any Mali win puts us above Tunisia, even if Tunisia advance on pens*. *According to FIFA Formula: "In some instances, games end with a winner after regular or extended time, but still include a PSO to determine the team that eventually will get to the next round. These games are treated as normal wins and defeats." I take this to mean that a 0-0 draw after extra time is simply counted as a draw, even if Nigeria win the PSO. Just for funsies, there is a scenario where a Canada draw in Panama stil gets us Pot 3. It involves at least two of Nigeria, Morocco, Tunisia, or Portugal being knocked out, and Algeria/Cameroon drawing. This mostly agrees with my post from yesterday, except for 2 points I'll quibble on: - Tunisia v. Mali: a tie (in which case Tunisia advances) works too since you assume CAN wins - Nigeria v. Ghana: If Ghana wins in PSO, it wouldn't matter that Nigeria stays ahead of CAN since they wouldn't be in the draw. So we simply need Ghana to advance in whatever fashion. Also, I agree with @archer21's interpretation that PSO does count after a tie. This implies that, since Nigeria must win either the game or PSO to advance (it did not score away), if Nigeria advances, it'd be ahead of CAN by more than 0.01. Also, if CAN ties PAN, then CAN is ahead of Algeria and Cameroon whatever happens in that game. So as long as two of Portugal, Morocco, Tunisia* and Nigeria get knocked out, a tie would be all that Canada needs. (*Tunisia qualifying in PSO after 0-1 loss would also work.) Miche and Ally McCoist 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A_Gagne Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 19 hours ago, Miche said: As it stands: Pot 3 Pot 4 Sweden 1598 Tunisia 1501.38 Japan 1560 Canada 1494.49 Iran 1559 Algeria 1473 Serbia 1551 Ecuador 1445 Morocco 1543 Saudi Arabia 1431 South Korea 1536 Wales 1588 Egypt 1511.70 Peru (IC) 1552 Nigeria 1506.89 Costa Rica (IC) 1486 •A Canada win over Panama nets us 9.51 pts. for a total of exactly 1504.00 pts. •We need TWO of the following: 29 Mar 13:00 Nigeria v Ghana (Leg 1: Ghana 0-0 Nigeria) A Ghana win or a draw with away goals knocks Nigeria out. If it goes to pens at 0-0, Nigeria would drop 2.88 pts*, leaving them at 1504.01. Seriously. They would edge us out by 0.01 pts. 29 Mar 13:00 Senegal v Egypt (Leg 1: Egypt 1-0 Senegal) An Egypt win or draw keeps them above us on pts, so they must lose but still advance. i.e. a one-goal loss with an away goal. 29 Mar 14.45 Portugal v North Macedonia North Macedonia advance. 29 Mar 15:30 Morocco v DR Congo (Leg 1: DR Congo 1-1 Morocco) DR Congo must knock out Morocco. 29 Mar 15:30 Tunisia v Mali (Leg 1: Mali 0-1 Tunisia) Any Mali win puts us above Tunisia, even if Tunisia advance on pens*. *According to FIFA Formula: "In some instances, games end with a winner after regular or extended time, but still include a PSO to determine the team that eventually will get to the next round. These games are treated as normal wins and defeats." I take this to mean that a 0-0 draw after extra time is simply counted as a draw, even if Nigeria win the PSO. Just for funsies, there is a scenario where a Canada draw in Panama stil gets us Pot 3. It involves at least two of Nigeria, Morocco, Tunisia, or Portugal being knocked out, and Algeria/Cameroon drawing. Current table with Elos rankings: Pot 3 Pot 4 Sweden 21 Tunisia 56 Japan 28 Canada 24 Iran 24 Algeria 40 Serbia 16 Ecuador 23 Morocco 34 Saudi Arabia 58 South Korea 22 Wales 18 Egypt 42 Peru (IC) 19 Nigeria 52 Costa Rica (IC) 44 Average Elos rank of teams currently in Pot 3 = 30 Average Elos rank of teams currently in Pot 4 = 35 (37 not including Canada) I generally consider Elos rankings more accurate than FIFA rankings, and if you go with that... 16 hours ago, Gian-Luca said: Not much difference for me between Pot 3 and 4, looking at that list. 12 hours ago, SpursFlu said: I think pot 3 is clearly tougher than 4 Actually it's not too different but I doubt pot 3 will happen anyways ... yeah being in Pot 3 is better, but not by a whole heck of a lot. ted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally McCoist Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 1 hour ago, A_Gagne said: Current table with Elos rankings: Pot 3 Pot 4 Sweden 21 Tunisia 56 Japan 28 Canada 24 Iran 24 Algeria 40 Serbia 16 Ecuador 23 Morocco 34 Saudi Arabia 58 South Korea 22 Wales 18 Egypt 42 Peru (IC) 19 Nigeria 52 Costa Rica (IC) 44 Average Elos rank of teams currently in Pot 3 = 30 Average Elos rank of teams currently in Pot 4 = 35 (37 not including Canada) I generally consider Elos rankings more accurate than FIFA rankings, and if you go with that... ... yeah being in Pot 3 is better, but not by a whole heck of a lot. The benefit of being in Pot 3 is that it gives us a 1 in 5 chance of drawing Qatar since there are 3 Asian teams in this pot. king1010, Xavier., Addona and 2 others 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pod818 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 Am I the only one that says bring on the big dogs? Give me Brazil. Give me Germany. Give me France. Also, if you think concacaf is bad, getting grouped with Qatar will be on a whole other level off officiating. If Qatar can find a way to host the World Cup, they are gonna find a way to win some games, Canada seems like a good target to get FIFA’ed narduch, ted and Cadeau 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narduch Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 12 minutes ago, pod818 said: Am I the only one that says bring on the big dogs? Give me Brazil. Give me Germany. Give me France. Also, if you think concacaf is bad, getting grouped with Qatar will be on a whole other level off officiating. If Qatar can find a way to host the World Cup, they are gonna find a way to win some games, Canada seems like a good target to get FIFA’ed I kind of want England just for how big a media spectacle it will be, especially after we beat them ted, TOCanada115 and Alex 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueseeka Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 The best chance to advance out of the group stage, is all we want. I will gladly face a Brazil/ England after Give me Qatar, Croatia, Nigeria and Canada Xavier., king1010, dyslexic nam and 2 others 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dyslexic nam Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 45 minutes ago, blueseeka said: The best chance to advance out of the group stage, is all we want. I will gladly face a Brazil/ England after Give me Qatar, Croatia, Nigeria and Canada This. We will face a giant in the round of 16. Priority one is to get out of the group. And I am in favour of anything that increases the chance of that. If we get a group of death and have 3 games against amazing, high profile teams, then so be it. But I am not hoping for it at this point. Sal333 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theaub Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 I want one of the big guys 100%. The idea of seeing Canada/Brazil or something like that in a World Cup is wild. That being said, the best of both worlds optimal situation is Qatar + one of Germany/Netherlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A_Gagne Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 (edited) 7 hours ago, Ally McCoist said: The benefit of being in Pot 3 is that it gives us a 1 in 5 chance of drawing Qatar since there are 3 Asian teams in this pot. Good point. Also if we make it into pot 3, push Nigeria into pot 4 and Costa Rica makes it in as well: 2/7 Wales, Peru (teams clearly ranked higher than us as per Elos) 4/7 Nigeria, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia or Algeria (teams clearly ranked lower) I like those odds slightly better than if this stay in pot 4: 1/8 Serbia 3/8 Nigeria, Egypt, Morocco 4/8 ranked about the same as us Edited March 29, 2022 by A_Gagne wrote wrong team, needed correction to make sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cadeau Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 I don't want to be in Qatar's group...I remember Spain and Italy vs the Koreans years back narduch, TOCanada115, Gian-Luca and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianSoccerFan Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 14 minutes ago, Cadeau said: I don't want to be in Qatar's group...I remember Spain and Italy vs the Koreans years back If they can buy the tournament they can buy a referee Cadeau and narduch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Please sign in to comment
You will be able to leave a comment after signing in
Sign In Now