The Race for Pot 3

[Miche]

Yes, yes, we haven’t clinched, but what’s better than talking about Canada at a World Cup, even in nearly-assured hypotheticals?

The below is based on the assumption that we want an easy group. Sure, it’d be glorious to take on a France or Italy, but let’s examine how we can take them on in the knockouts. So, let’s look at whether, and how, making Pot 3 might make the group easier.

 

1. How important is grabbing Pot 3 for improving our chances at drawing Qatar?

Firstly, we need to avoid the US and Mexico being drawn with Qatar, b/c then we can’t be. There’s a 25% chance one of them gets Qatar. If we’re in Pot 3, we then must be the first non-AFC drawn (20%). So our odds of drawing Qatar from Pot 3 are 15%.

If we’re in Pot 4, there are several permutations, but the likeliest scenario has Qatar drawing two UEFA teams from Pot 2 and 3. In that case, being the first non-AFC would be 1 in 7, and our overall odds would be 10.7%. The second likeliest for Qatar would be UEFA and CAF. We would need to be the first non-AFC and non-CAF (1 in 4), for overall odds of 18.8%.

So, surprisingly, Pot 3 gives us a 15% chance at Qatar, and Pot 4 10.7% – 18.8%. Not much difference.

I’ll add that it’s arguable whether drawing Qatar is some tremendous advantage. If there’s one nation on Earth that would brown envelope the refs, it’s Qatar.

 

2. Are Pot 4 opponents that much weaker than Pot 3?

This is very much up for debate. One might argue that the Pot 4 teams are hot, fresh, and hungry. How does that compare to the more recently-experienced Pot 3 teams?

Let’s look at the point-gains over the past year (FIFA / ELO):

Pot 3                                          Pot 4

Sweden         +30 / +0              Nigeria                +35 / -10

Senegal         +23 / -24             Canada                +165 / +242

Wales             +16 / +7               Tunisia                 -14 / -28

Iran                 +76 / +80            Cameroon            +45 / +25

Serbia             +55 / +71             Ecuador               +49 / +39

Morocco          +66 / +52           Saudi Arabia        +80 / +69

Japan               +47 / +36           Peru (IC)               +51 / +62

South Korea     +57 / +35           Panama (IC)         +63 / +87

 

Yeah, Canada’s gains are insane. Feel free to pause reading to go have a victory wank.

 

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Welcome back.

Considering it’s harder to gain points from a higher ranking, the Pot 3 teams have gained fairly well by comparison.

Current ELO rankings:

Pot 3                                   Pot 4

Sweden            25           Nigeria                 52

Senegal            33           Canada                21

Wales                23           Tunisia                 63

Iran                    19           Cameroon            54

Serbia                18           Ecuador               15

Morocc              32           Saudi Arabia        59

Japan                 29           Peru (IC)              17

South Korea       27           Panama (IC)        58

 

Ranking doesn’t tell the whole story, but Pot 3 does appear to be consistently good. Aside from Peru and Ecuador, there are several low seeds, even some on the downturn.

Now my Uni was ages ago so my game theory is a little rusty. Happy to make corrections!

 

TL/DR: It’s absolutely up for debate, but I’m of the mind that attaining Pot 3 is very much worth the push.

[Miche]

Updated live rankings. Table's default is that higher seeds advance in qualifying.

Pot 1		Pot 2		Pot 3		Pot 4
Qatar	1437	Denmark	1654	Sweden	1588	Nigeria	1509
Belgium	1828	Netherlands	1653	Senegal	1587	Canada	1497
Brazil	1823	Germany	1648	Wales	1578	Tunisia	1489
France	1786	Mexico	1647	Iran	1572	Cameroon	1480
Argentina	1766	USA	1643	Serbia	1547	Ecuador	1458
England	1755	Switzerland	1642	Morocco	1547	Saudi Arabia	1433
Italy	1740	Croatia	1620	Japan	1549	Peru (IC)	1563
Spain	1704	Uruguay	1605	South Korea	1522	Panama (IC)	1375

 

Teams to watch:

•Tunisia / Mail: Mali (1446) could also upset Tunisia, otherwise we’ll want to stay ahead of Tunisia. Two Tunisia wins would net them ~21pts, two draw ~-2pts.

•Senegal / Egypt: We want Egypt (1497) to upset Senegal, but fail to surpass us. Two Egypt wins would net them ~26pts, two draws ~4pts.

•Cameroon / Algeria: Algeria (1460) could upset Cameroon, otherwise we’ll want to stay ahead of Cameroon. Two Cameroon wins would net them ~22pts, two draws ~-1pt.

•Nigeria / Ghana: Ghana (1381) could upset Nigeria, otherwise we’ll want to surpass Nigeria. Two Nigeria wins would net them ~18pts, two draws ~-6pts.

•Morocco / DR Congo: DR Congo (1221) could upset Morocco, though it’s unlikely.

•Australia / Japan: We’ll want Australia to surpass Japan in the March window, starting with defeating them on Mar 24. After that, however, Australia will need to match Japan’s result and maintain their lead in GD while they face Saudi Arabia and Japan face lowly Vietnam. Possible, but unlikely.

•South Korea: If South Korea loses to Iran on Mar 24, we'll have a shot at surpassing them, particularly if they then also fail to beat UAE.

•Scotland (1471) / Russia (1493): We are ahead of both, so either winning their playoff group would be great.

•Austria (1511) / Czech Rep (1510): We're unlikely to catch either on pts if they win their groups, though there is a remote possibility if their wins are on pens.

Edited February 9, 2022 by Miche

[Miche]

And on a personal note, I just wanted to share that after 12 years in Scotland, I’m returning home to Canada this summer!!

I can’t wait to be back in the section (and to watch the boys play at a sane time again)!

[Bertuzzi44]

Definitely go for Pot 3 seeding. Not even a question in my mind.

[archer21]

Seems like the most likely way we get pot 3 is to win out, have Nigeria lose or draw one of their games, and have Egypt beat Senegal. That would be enough. Otherwise, have to rely on Russia or Scotland to win their group which seems unlikely. The other matchups only really come into play if we don’t win our final 3 matches.

Edit: if South Korea loses a match that would put them below us if we win out. Not sure about if they have a win and a draw.

Edited February 7, 2022 by archer21

[Floortom]

I still think the most difficult part of this chase, by far, will be winning in both Costa Rica and Panama. Not impossible of course, but each will be wayyyy more difficult than the wins in El Salvador and Honduras

[narduch]

There is a scenario where losing to Panama on the last day may help our Pot 3 chances (if the USA are behind Panama  heading into the last day).

[SthMelbRed]

I don't see the marginal gains of being in Pot 3 over Pot 4 as being worth anything like the near obsession that this quest is starting to develop into. Let's play the next 3 games to qualify for the tournament and see where we end up.

[TGAA_Star]

Africa playoffs for Pot 3

Senegal vs Egypt- I have Senegal the African Champions beating Egypt to qualify and Mo Salah misses out on a World Cup unfortunately. 2026 Salah most likely will be back and so will Egypt.

Cameroon vs Algeria- As far as who I think wins, it could go either way but I got Cameroon beating Algeria to qualify.

Mali vs Tunisia- I got Mali qualifying for their first ever World Cup as a nation and Tunisia, an African giant misses out on Qatar

Morocco/DR Congo- I got the Moroccans winning

Ghana vs Nigeria- As much as I want to see my country of Ghana qualify here, I can't see us beating Nigeria. Nigeria wins to go to Qatar. Ghana misses out with 2026 being more of a possibility for us to return on the world stage.

 

UEFA Playoffs Tournament Path

Path A- Scotland vs Ukraine- Scotland is playing at home...they will beat Ukraine

Path A- Wales vs Austria- Wales beats Austria

 

Path A Final- Scotland vs Wales- I have Scotland beating Wales to qualify for Qatar

 

Path B- Russia vs Poland- I got Poland beating Russia away in Russia...Lewandowski will carry them on his back

Path B- Sweden vs Czech Republic- I have an upset...Czechs beat Sweden in this playoff

 

Path B Final- Poland vs Czech Republic- Poland beats Czech Republic to qualify 

 

Path C- Italy vs North Macedonia= Italy wins easily

Path C- Portugal vs Turkey= Portugal beats Turkey

 

Path C Final= I have an upset...Italy beats Portugal to qualify...Portugal miss out on their first World Cup since France 98 where they last didn't qualify...Ronaldo retires from the national team 

[TGAA_Star]

CONCACAF for Pot 3

1- Canada finishes top of the table to qualify directly for Qatar

2- Mexico finishes in 2nd right below us to qualify directly 

3- USA finishes in 3rd to qualify directly; USA return for their first World Cup since 2014

 

Inter continental playoff- Costa Rica finishes in 4th...to go to the playoff...Costa Rica faces New Zealand 

New Zealand in a shocker beat Costa Rica to qualify 

[apbsmith]

Thanks @Miche for the breakdown including the "games to watch". 

I don't think it's debatable which pot is better for us but not the end of the world either. 

If we end up in pot 4, I believe our group would be labelled the "group of death". There a few teams in pot 3 I would not want us to face. 

Pot 4 is still open to some teams sneaking in via upset qualification as well. Every game be difficult at the WC, but me personally I have faith in our lads vs Ecuador or Peru, they are no Brazil or Argentina.

Pot 3 about 1/2+ the teams I'd prefer to avoid. 

[Unnamed Trialist]

3 hours ago, SthMelbRed said:

I don't see the marginal gains of being in Pot 3 over Pot 4 as being worth anything like the near obsession that this quest is starting to develop into. Let's play the next 3 games to qualify for the tournament and see where we end up.

It's important to have goals in life.

 

[SthMelbRed]

21 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

It's important to have goals in life.

 

No issue with goals. I'd love the little bit of pride that would come from rising into Pot 3, but we've got people arguing that JH can't use the 1-2 games after qualification is secured to try out new players or formations because they've decided that those matches are must wins in order to get into Pot 3. I'd prefer Pot 4 with a couple of games where we get to see some bubble players or potential duals given a chance to show what they can do over Pot 3 but we don't use the chance to test our options out. So, Pot 3 and a bit of experimentation in the last couple of games for me, please.

[Unnamed Trialist]

1 hour ago, SthMelbRed said:

No issue with goals. I'd love the little bit of pride that would come from rising into Pot 3, but we've got people arguing that JH can't use the 1-2 games after qualification is secured to try out new players or formations because they've decided that those matches are must wins in order to get into Pot 3. I'd prefer Pot 4 with a couple of games where we get to see some bubble players or potential duals given a chance to show what they can do over Pot 3 but we don't use the chance to test our options out. So, Pot 3 and a bit of experimentation in the last couple of games for me, please.

Sacrilege. Our hopes and dreams are pinned on Pot 3. 

[Norrin Radd]

5 hours ago, SthMelbRed said:

So, Pot 3 and a bit of experimentation in the last couple of games for me, please.

So after we qualify we're going to start experimenting with pot. Got it!

[TGAA_Star]

But if Canada qualifies, to end up in Pot 3 we essentially would have to beat Costa Rica, Jamaica and Panama going undefeated the rest of the way

[SpursFlu]

In my opinion pot 3 looks much tougher. You could argue Wales is the weakest. Senegal, Serbia, Sweden jump out as being pretty tough

[Trois Reds]

I'd like to think that any group with Canada in it is considered a group of death for the rest of the world because, well, Canada is in it. Be it Pot 3 or 4, teams will be scared of us, not the other way around.

[Alex]

5 hours ago, Trois Reds said:

I'd like to think that any group with Canada in it is considered a group of death for the rest of the world because, well, Canada is in it. Be it Pot 3 or 4, teams will be scared of us, not the other way around.

Also, it takes so long for a team to rise up the rankings that you don’t get a true assessment of how good they really are. Are we really a pot 2 team in terms of talent? I think I saw somewhere that a team in the 20s would have to beat the number one ranked team 6 or 7 times in a row to get anywhere ranked near the top. 

[ballerz]

9 hours ago, Trois Reds said:

I'd like to think that any group with Canada in it is considered a group of death for the rest of the world because, well, Canada is in it. Be it Pot 3 or 4, teams will be scared of us, not the other way around.

What if we are in the same group as Qatar?

[TGAA_Star]

4 hours ago, ballerz said:

What if we are in the same group as Qatar?

If we are, I would love it personally especially if you get Qatar vs Canada in game 1 of the FIFA World Cup in the opening game for the whole world to see

[MtlMario]

2 hours ago, TGAA_Star said:

If we are, I would love it personally especially if you get Qatar vs Canada in game 1 of the FIFA World Cup in the opening game for the whole world to see

I said this about a month ago. It would be great.

[Unnamed Trialist]

11 hours ago, Alex said:

Also, it takes so long for a team to rise up the rankings that you don’t get a true assessment of how good they really are. Are we really a pot 2 team in terms of talent? I think I saw somewhere that a team in the 20s would have to beat the number one ranked team 6 or 7 times in a row to get anywhere ranked near the top. 

I am useless on the calculations, but I would think that if last summer we had beaten Mexico and the US in Nations League (having qualified for the finals), and then done the same in the Gold Cup, that would have meant a massive jump as well. 

I suppose your point is that the shorter the spread, the lower the points to take and the easier to lose them by simply drawing a team below you. 

No one really cares about Pot 3, it is just a fun thing to play with: we want a group we can get out of, a group where we could win one and draw one with reasonable probabilities.

[TGAA_Star]

2 hours ago, MtlMario said:

I said this about a month ago. It would be great.

Qatar vs Canada in Group A and on the televised Draw the Draw analysts pick Canada's ball out of the pot and announce Canada to be in Group A and they say Canada will be in slot A2. Canada plays Qatar in the opening game on November 22nd. I would love it. The Draw can't come soon enough for me.

[Kent]

15 hours ago, Alex said:

Also, it takes so long for a team to rise up the rankings that you don’t get a true assessment of how good they really are. Are we really a pot 2 team in terms of talent? I think I saw somewhere that a team in the 20s would have to beat the number one ranked team 6 or 7 times in a row to get anywhere ranked near the top. 

Challenge accepted!

I've taken the 25th ranked team's points (Morocco at 1547.38), and the 1st ranked team's points (Belgium at 1828.45). If they keep playing over and over and the lower ranked team keeps winning, and these games are somehow all in the same competition, these are the results.

If the games are in World Cup Qualifying, it would take Morocco 9 straight wins to surpass Belgium (not that they would be ranked first, but they would surpass Belgium because Belgium would drop as Morocco rose).

If the games are in a Continental championship group stage it would take Morocco 7 wins to surpass Belgium.

If the games are in the World Cup group stage it would take Morocco 5 wins to surpass Belgium.