WCQ: Third Round - Window 5 (March 24 - 30, 2022)

[Cblake]

Realistically to get into Pot 3, Canada is going to need to avoid a loss in the final window. Two wins and a draw may just be enough to push them in. Any loss in the final 3 games and it's all but likely Pot 4 for the draw.

 

[footballfreak]

Card Update

Suspended for matchday 12: Doneil Henry (CAN), Sam Adekugbe (CAN), Alfredo Mejia (HON), Wisdom Quaye (HON), Armando Cooper (PAN), Eric Davis (PAN), Jose Fajardo (PAN).

The big news of the round has to be Panama, who will be without three players next match. However, this also means that they now only have two players on yellow cards.

 

[Allez les Rouges]

Reformulating what I posted (and then corrected) in the Window 4 forum and can be of interest here: in order to qualify on March 24, Canada needs to EITHER:

- win at CRC

OR get TWO of:

- tie at CRC

- PAN draw/loss vs. HON

- MEX win vs. USA (tie also works if CAN ties at CRC).

 

[TGAA_Star]

I mean we are practically on the cusp of qualifying for Qatar. It would have been awesome had we qualified last night by clinching our spot if Honduras and Jamaica did their damn jobs and beat the USA and Costa Rica. But no use in crying over spilled milk.

I mean we have 3 more games left 🤷 to go so 🤷 

We have Costa Rica (A), Jamaica (H) and Panama (A)

But I swear can't Canada clinch a spot in Qatar in our next match should we beat Costa Rica? That would give us 28 points which should be enough to qualify I mean shouldn't it?

[Allez les Rouges]

4 hours ago, Cblake said:

Realistically to get into Pot 3, Canada is going to need to avoid a loss in the final window. Two wins and a draw may just be enough to push them in. Any loss in the final 3 games and it's all but likely Pot 4 for the draw.

 

 

Has anyone done probabilistic simulations on this? My gut feeling says Pot 3 is below 50% likelihood, but not the longshot that it seemed before Canada's fantastic 9-point window. Also not sure how important Canada's own results are. Winning vs. losing a qualifier is a 25-point swing, but how much does that change the probability of getting into Pot 3?

It's nice that CAF qualifiers are on YouTube - those results will be key. (Well, maybe not so nice for productivity...)

[Cblake]

Rising on up. Pot 3 can really happen if Canada continues to do its part, winning games. 
 

 

[Corazon]

6 hours ago, footballfreak said:

Card Update

Suspended for matchday 12: Doneil Henry (CAN), Sam Adekugbe (CAN), Alfredo Mejia (HON), Wisdom Quaye (HON), Armando Cooper (PAN), Eric Davis (PAN), Jose Fajardo (PAN).

The big news of the round has to be Panama, who will be without three players next match. However, this also means that they now only have two players on yellow cards.

 

I believe I heard that Atiba was actually suspended for the USA game after receiving his first yellow after a match in the previous round.  If this is the case, you could jot him down as suspension served.

[theaub]

Two months to plan the party.  What a time to be alive.

 

[Cblake]

1 minute ago, Corazon said:

I believe I heard that Atiba was actually suspended for the USA game after receiving his first yellow after a match in the previous round.  If this is the case, you could jot him down as suspension served.

He was suspended 

[Sal333]

2 hours ago, Allez les Rouges said:

Has anyone done probabilistic simulations on this? My gut feeling says Pot 3 is below 50% likelihood, but not the longshot that it seemed before Canada's fantastic 9-point window. Also not sure how important Canada's own results are. Winning vs. losing a qualifier is a 25-point swing, but how much does that change the probability of getting into Pot 3?

It's nice that CAF qualifiers are on YouTube - those results will be key. (Well, maybe not so nice for productivity...)

At the moment Canada is at 33 with 1497.82 points. The closest team to Canada that is in Pot 3 at the moment is Nigeria at 32 with 1509.91 points. The next nation is Korea at 29 with 1522.84.

If Canada wins their last three games we have a better than 50% likelihood.

https://football-ranking.com/fifa_rankings

 

[narduch]

To make Pot 3 we probably need as many upsets as possible in the remaining qualifiers.

Teams like North Macedonia doing the unthinkable would be much more beneficial than anything we do on our own

[Floortom]

Those matches against CR and Panama will be very tough as both will be desperate for a win for that 4th position. 
Best case scenario is that we beat Costa Rica and Panama has clinched that #4 spot by the time we play them on the last match day 

[jonovision]

Looking at the teams in both pots, it seems like the draw will be a much, much more important difference in the quality of the group than which pot we end up in.  Would you rather end up in a group with Tunisia or Morocco? Korea or Russia? I have no opinion, because there's not a lot of difference between these teams.

There is a big difference between drawing Germany or Uruguay as a pot 2 opponent.

[theaub]

12 minutes ago, jonovision said:

Looking at the teams in both pots, it seems like the draw will be a much, much more important difference in the quality of the group than which pot we end up in.  Would you rather end up in a group with Tunisia or Morocco? Korea or Russia? I have no opinion, because there's not a lot of difference between these teams.

There is a big difference between drawing Germany or Uruguay as a pot 2 opponent.

Agree with this fully - unfortunately the two weakest teams in Pot 2 are the ones we can't get drawn with.

In a way I prefer Pot 4 because the absolute worst case scenario is geting drawn with 2 UEFA + Ecuador/CONMEBOL5, both of whom are legitimate Top 20 ELO teams.  There's a lot of good teams in Pot 3 but outside of Senegal/Japan imo they aren't that much better than their continental equivalents in Pot 4 (e: except for Saudi Arabia who are garb).

Edited February 3, 2022 by theaub

[Metro]

If Canada does not it make it to Pot 3, do any teams in Pot 3 actually scare us?  Senegal and Wales, perhaps?

Edited February 3, 2022 by Metro

[CanadaFan123]

15 minutes ago, Metro said:

If Canada does it make it to Pot 3, do any teams in Pot 3 actually scare us?  Senegal and Wales, perhaps?

That would be irrelevant because we would be drawing teams from Pot 1, 2 and 4.

The pot 1 and 2 teams that we would want would be Qatar and Switzerland perhaps. 

[Metro]

1 minute ago, CanadaFan123 said:

That would be irrelevant because we would be drawing teams from Pot 1, 2 and 4.

The pot 1 and 2 teams that we would want would be Qatar and Switzerland perhaps. 

Sorry, forgot to add the word "not" make it to be pot 3.  Small detail. 😄

[JohnnyFranchise]

19 minutes ago, Metro said:

If Canada does it make it to Pot 3, do any teams in Pot 3 actually scare us?  Senegal and Wales, perhaps?

No, I like our chances against any team in pots 3 and 4. And tbh I'd feel pretty good about catching a few of those pot 2 teams by surprise. And if we fluke into Qatar's group......

[TGAA_Star]

2 hours ago, Floortom said:

Those matches against CR and Panama will be very tough as both will be desperate for a win for that 4th position. 
Best case scenario is that we beat Costa Rica and Panama has clinched that #4 spot by the time we play them on the last match day 

Yeah if we beat Costa Rica, we qualify or even if we get a draw against Costa Rica we qualify. But as far as Panama locking up 4th, they are in a dog fight right now with Costa Rica for the IC playoff spot

[Cblake]

Canada 25 points -“Let’s hold off even talking about qualifying until it’s done”, USA - 21 points - “What are our chances to get out of the group stages?”

[Stryker911]

The US actually has a very difficult last window. If they hadn't beaten Honduras they would be pretty tight getting into the top 3. Away to Mexico and then games against Panama at home and CR away. Both of them will be desperate to get wins.

[SpursFlu]

We're in. New objective. Everyone say it with me

Pot 3! Pot 3! Pot 3! Pot 3! Pot 3!

[Approve My Account Pls]

Just to point out, all other confederations will have wrapped up by the time we play Panama on the evening of the 30th. In theory we'll have room to scheme for the best scenario for us to maximize chance at pot 3 

[narduch]

4 minutes ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

Just to point out, all other confederations will have wrapped up by the time we play Panama on the evening of the 30th. In theory we'll have room to scheme for the best scenario for us to maximize chance at pot 3 

The wrench in all of this are the guys on yellow cards.

Anyone of of them gets a yellow in the last qualifier they would miss our World Cup opener.

[Free kick]

2 hours ago, Metro said:

If Canada does not it make it to Pot 3, do any teams in Pot 3 actually scare us?  Senegal and Wales, perhaps?

This is something i just noticed a few seconds ago.  I am starting to wonder if the teams in pot 4 might be tougher?   In which case being in pot 4 might not be such a bad thing.