WCQ: El Salvador vs Canada- Wed, Feb 2, 9pm EST / 6pm Pacific - San Salvador

[pod818]

1 hour ago, canuckgbp said:

We heard he warmed up yesterday.

Heard he wasn't in the city. 

Wheeler on the broadcast said they couldn't register him in time.

Saw reports he was still in Portugal.

Craziness lol. 

At this point has anyone actually seen him? I get with the cold weather everyone is bundled up so it makes things more difficult. 

I'm thinking he wasn't at the game last night. So either he is in Portugal or going straight to El Salvador. If he had been at the game warming up, on the bench or even not dressed, someone would have seen him. Its hard to hide that kind of thing these days with social media and everyone was on the lookout for him

Edited January 31, 2022 by pod818

[JAVIERF]

Donny Henry is a good player.  In Mexico he overreacted but he is calm too.   The guy is strong and experienced. 

 

Experience is important in WC Q

[pod818]

1 minute ago, JAVIERF said:

Donny Henry is a good player.  In Mexico he overreacted but he is calm too.   The guy is strong and experienced. 

 

Experience is important in WC Q

Didn't he suffer a knock in that game? He had some trouble keeping pace with the Mexican Forwards, and indicated that in the recent interview as part of the reason he was subbed off early. He played well in the other qualifying games I thought

[JAVIERF]

Let's be honest, this guy has been waiting for this chance the whole campaign, he has the chance to lead the backbone in the most important game in Canadian football so far, this match is the decisive one.  Matchday11

Edited January 31, 2022 by JAVIERF

[cornerkick]

3 hours ago, canuckgbp said:

Do we know if El Salvador have any capacity limits in place right now? 

According to this article, 22k tickets are for sale.  
450 police officers will provide security!  Should be quite the atmosphere

 

https://www.elgrafico.com/futbol/Asi-sera-el-plan-de-seguridad-para-el-juego-El-Salvador-contra-Canada-20220131-0011.html

Canadian fans get a section too…

Edited January 31, 2022 by cornerkick

[rydermike]

2 hours ago, maplebanana said:

All these combinations are making my head hurt, so I just made a spreadsheet instead so I could play with the scores to see what could be. I actually stumbled on a scenario where all 4 teams end up with 25 pts!

Math is fun

[scooterlawrence5]

If Canada beats El Salvador we will have secured 25 points and we will have 99.1% probability of securing direct qualification to Qatar 2022.

SOURCE:  We Global Football

[maplebanana]

27 minutes ago, rydermike said:

Math is fun

I'll share the link to the google sheets once i clean it up a bit and lock a few things so people don't break it. Then everyone can adjust scores to their hearts delight.

I can offer nothing in terms of tactics. But math - I better damn well be able to do that after so many math courses in undergrad. 

[JamboAl]

4 minutes ago, scooterlawrence5 said:

If Canada beats El Salvador we will have secured 25 points and we will have 99.1% probability of securing direct qualification to Qatar 2022.

SOURCE:  We Global Football

So at 26 points, we are 100% in.  I like those odds from where we are now.

[narduch]

Listening to the latest Northern Futbol podcast and Galindo does say that Eustaquio did warm up yesterday. 

[trc2014]

7 minutes ago, narduch said:

Listening to the latest Northern Futbol podcast and Galindo does say that Eustaquio did warm up yesterday. 

But then he just quoted that it was based on what Wheeler said.

[narduch]

14 minutes ago, trc2014 said:

But then he just quoted that it was based on what Wheeler said.

Ya.

That's why I'm still skeptical 

[pod818]

1 hour ago, narduch said:

Listening to the latest Northern Futbol podcast and Galindo does say that Eustaquio did warm up yesterday. 

12000+ fans were there yesterday, if he warmed up, I'm sure at least 1 of them would have reported it here with a photo..

[SthMelbRed]

11 minutes ago, pod818 said:

12000+ fans were there yesterday, if he warmed up, I'm sure at least 1 of them would have reported it here with a photo..

If he did a pre-match warm-up before being withdrawn from the matchday squad, how many people would've been in the ground at that point?

[pod818]

7 minutes ago, SthMelbRed said:

If he did a pre-match warm-up before being withdrawn from the matchday squad, how many people would've been in the ground at that point?

He would have still gotten off the team bus where the masses were gathered. Unless they brought him in separately under disguise..which I'm not sure why they would do that.

I feel like this whole thing was to confuse the US team and keep them guessing up to the last minute on the lineup

[jonovision]

3 hours ago, Lansdude said:

I'd be fine with heavy rotation here, I think we can trust a team of mostly B players to get it done. The other thing is we have few true understudies in this team. We've rotated quite a bit out of necessity already through this campaign and pretty much everyone has proven worthy. So I'm not worried about a drop in quality.

I would like to see as close to a first-choice lineup as is possible given the circumstances. If we're up 2-0 at half, then bring in the subs. El Salvador are a better team than Honduras and it's not like we walked all over Honduras on Thursday.

[sstackho]

duplicate

Edited February 1, 2022 by sstackho

[sstackho]

2 hours ago, JamboAl said:

So at 26 points, we are 100% in.  I like those odds from where we are now.

 

2 hours ago, scooterlawrence5 said:

If Canada beats El Salvador we will have secured 25 points and we will have 99.1% probability of securing direct qualification to Qatar 2022.

SOURCE:  We Global Football

I disagree that 26 points assures Top 3.  Here's what el_noido's simulation model shows. 

[Unnamed Trialist]

11 minutes ago, sstackho said:

 

I disagree that 26 points assures Top 3.  Here's what el_noido's simulation model shows. 

These same dubious probability sheets had Nadal with a 4% chance of beating Medvedev after the 2nd set. 

In any case, anyone who knows football knows this sort of stuff is meaningless. There is one posted on this board that gives Northern Macedonia a 4% chance of making Qatar, and puts Italy at well under 50%. Teams that have just 4 matches to play to get there. Ridiculous.

[JamboAl]

10 minutes ago, sstackho said:

 

I disagree that 26 points assures Top 3.  Here's what el_noido's simulation model shows. 

Yeah, I’m not sure what the exact number is but I can’t see us realistically not qualifying even at 25; too many oddball results would have to go against us and we’d have to get blown out a few times to lose that goal difference advantage.

[CanadaFan123]

8 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

These same dubious probability sheets had Nadal with a 4% chance of beating Medvedev after the 2nd set. 

In any case, anyone who knows football knows this sort of stuff is meaningless. There is one posted on this board that gives Northern Macedonia a 4% chance of making Qatar, and puts Italy at well under 50%. Teams that have just 4 matches to play to get there. Ridiculous.

I believe these are literally based on math/fact. These are the probabilities based on points earned it doesn’t include probabilities of matches themselves. Notice 33 isn’t even possible. 
 

edit: I guess the “odds” column might include match specific odds. 

Edited February 1, 2022 by CanadaFan123

[maplebanana]

9 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

These same dubious probability sheets had Nadal with a 4% chance of beating Medvedev after the 2nd set. 

In any case, anyone who knows football knows this sort of stuff is meaningless. There is one posted on this board that gives Northern Macedonia a 4% chance of making Qatar, and puts Italy at well under 50%. Teams that have just 4 matches to play to get there. Ridiculous.

Yeah, because 4% was the chance of Nadal's improbable comeback.

4% does not equal 0%

99% does not equal 100%

These are not trying to predict certainty. It's only going through combinations of events with weighted probabilities.

[JAVIERF]

3 minutes ago, maplebanana said:

Yeah, because 4% was the chance of Nadal's improbable comeback.

4% does not equal 0%

99% does not equal 100%

These are not trying to predict certainty. It's only going through combinations of events with weighted probabilities.

This isn't tennis  and the fighting spirit of Willie Vilas in Nadal for that comeback is an anomaly.

Football is a team sport.  Tennis is individual.   Nadal is the Vilas of XXI century.  

[CanadianSoccerFan]

450 police from various agencies being deployed for the game.  The press is reporting that weapons, drugs, laser pointers, and gunpowder are prohibited.  That's good information to have. 

https://www.elgrafico.com/futbol/Asi-sera-el-plan-de-seguridad-para-el-juego-El-Salvador-contra-Canada-20220131-0011.html

[canuckgbp]

5 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

450 police from various agencies being deployed for the game.  The press is reporting that weapons, drugs, laser pointers, and gunpowder are prohibited.  That's good information to have. 

https://www.elgrafico.com/futbol/Asi-sera-el-plan-de-seguridad-para-el-juego-El-Salvador-contra-Canada-20220131-0011.html

What about bags with questionable liquids in them? Lol