WCQ: Third Round - Window 4 (January 27- February 2, 2022)

[cornerkick]

19 minutes ago, EJsens1 said:

Yeah I wonder if they’ll get in shit from FIFA for this.  Imagine we go into a potential clinching game and many people from Canada want to go but can’t because they banned fans

could the result be voided and 3 points awarded to Jamaica?  playing games behind closed doors doesn't seem enough for something like this...

Edited February 3, 2022 by cornerkick

[JAVIERF]

15 minutes ago, cornerkick said:

could the result be voided and 3 points awarded to Jamaica?  playing games behind closed doors doesn't seem enough for something like this...

If they have the tests FIFA should act and give the victory to the Jamaicans.  Full stop.  

 Costa Rica cheated.

[JAVIERF]

1 hour ago, Addona said:

Is it just me, or has Mexico looked like absolute ass for the last several games?

They are gonna fire Gerry soon 

[JAVIERF]

46 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

Breaking!!! Costa Rica had 6 players test positive for covid before the match and two of them played anyway.

https://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/sports/20220202/costa-rica-played-covid-positive-players-jff-doctor

If they play...and it is registered the points should go to Jamaica.  They may have a lawsuit with FiFa

[footballfreak]

3 hours ago, Allez les Rouges said:

So Mexico's win clinches 4th for Canada! It's 6 more points needed for 1st and 2 points for qualification.

More precisely, on Day 12:

- Canada cannot clinch 1st (MEX and USA cannot simultaneously lose since they play each other).

- Canada qualifies with any of:

a) win at CRC

b) tie at CRC and either PAN draw/loss vs. HON or MEX win/draw vs. USA

c) loss at CRC and either PAN draw/loss vs. HON or MEX win vs. USA

While we cannot mathematically clinch first place next round, a Canada win and a USA-Mexico draw would ensure that the best either could do is match us on 28 points. We currently have a +5 GD advantage on the US and an 8 goal advantage on Mexico, which would go up to at least +6 and +9 respectively after round 12 in that scenario.

The average margin of US victory/Canadian defeat over 4 games would have to be 1.5 to catch us. For Mexico, that required goal margin/game climbs to 2.25. Not a lock by any means, but very hard to accomplish.

All that said, I think a US win, which would delay our coronation slightly, improves our odds of finishing first. If Mexico wins that game, they most likely end up finishing the window with 9 points. They could even blow out El Salvador and Honduras to the extent that they take over the lead in goal difference. I really cannot see USA doing the same against Panama and Costa Rica away.

Edited February 3, 2022 by footballfreak

[Allez les Rouges]

1 hour ago, footballfreak said:

While we cannot mathematically clinch first place next round, a Canada win and a USA-Mexico draw would ensure that the best either could do is match us on 28 points. We currently have a +5 GD advantage on the US and an 8 goal advantage on Mexico, which would go up to at least +6 and +9 respectively after round 12 in that scenario.

The average margin of US victory/Canadian defeat over 4 games would have to be 1.5 to catch us. For Mexico, that required goal margin/game climbs to 2.25. Not a lock by any means, but very hard to accomplish.

All that said, I think a US win, which would delay our coronation slightly, improves our odds of finishing first. If Mexico wins that game, they most likely end up finishing the window with 9 points. They could even blow out El Salvador and Honduras to the extent that they take over the lead in goal difference. I really cannot see USA doing the same against Panama and Costa Rica away.

By the way, I made a mistake in the post you quoted: scenario c requires PAN to lose/draw vs. HON and (not or) MEX to beat USA - forgot CRC can still pass CAN in that case. Obviously also very unlikely given the current goal differentials.

[narduch]

6 hours ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

Breaking!!! Costa Rica had 6 players test positive for covid before the match and two of them played anyway.

https://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/sports/20220202/costa-rica-played-covid-positive-players-jff-doctor

I bet one was Navas 

[Gian-Luca]

I have been trying to figure out why Wikipedia has us clinching at least 4th place since Costa Rica can still technically speaking surpass us, and I have realized they are correct. Both Panama and Costa Rica would need to run the table to do that, which means they would both beat the US, which means that the US could at most only get 3 points from that window and still would finish below us.  Which means we are officially going to Qatar though there is a remote possibility that, due to goal differential, it would only be for the playoff. We would have to lose each game 3-0 and Costa Rica win big  in each game to drop us down to 4th in goal difference

[nazzer]

3 hours ago, Gian-Luca said:

I have been trying to figure out why Wikipedia has us clinching at least 4th place since Costa Rica can still technically speaking surpass us, and I have realized they are correct. Both Panama and Costa Rica would need to run the table to do that, which means they would both beat the US, which means that the US could at most only get 3 points from that window and still would finish below us.  Which means we are officially going to Qatar though there is a remote possibility that, due to goal differential, it would only be for the playoff. We would have to lose each game 3-0 and Costa Rica win big  in each game to drop us down to 4th in goal difference

"Officially going to qatar" and "only the playoff" are different things.

[Peschisolido]

14 minutes ago, nazzer said:

"Officially going to qatar" and "only the playoff" are different things.

Except the playoff is in Qatar.

Going to Qatar for the playoff vs going to Qatar for the tournament.

[MtlMario]

I'm gonna give my crystal ball a big hug for calling 9 pts. this window. GO CANADA GO.

[Sal333]

28 minutes ago, MtlMario said:

I'm gonna give my crystal ball a big hug for calling 9 pts. this window. GO CANADA GO.

You better treat that crystal ball with kid gloves. We're gonna need it in the World Cup!

[Wayverider]

On 1/13/2022 at 6:19 PM, Wayverider said:

Most of you still don't realize just how good we really are. F*&k this psychological-inferiority discussion of 'I'd trade a loss in this game if we could get a win in this one' or 'Oh I'm nervous, the central American jungles have been historically unkind to us' .... Look down, make sure you've got a set. Ok, we good, they are still there? Damn right, now let's go out and take 3 from every opponent we ever face. Let our players cherish those moments in games when they see the first glimpses of failure register on our opponent's faces because they can't handle this 21st century version of Canadian soccer. And then put your foot to their throats and crush them.

Ok, before I take too much flack I'm also a realist and know we are not going to take three points every single time we take the field. But we finally have a team good enough to take the approach I laid out above (every single time they take the field). As fans we need to start mirroring their expectations and expecting victories.

9 points next window!!!

I wrote this (see above quote) back on page 11 prior to the window starting. 9 POINTS! That’s right - nine points baby! - YOU ARE CANADIAN, culturally descended from the same individuals who kicked ass at VImy Ridge, subdued the Mighty Soviet Union in ‘72, and brought home soccer gold in Japan just last summer.

And yet we still have some of you pre-occupied by the possibility of not qualifying and writing long, drawn out essay-length posts on all the permutations of what its going to take to finish ahead of Panama. I feel like we need to lead some of you over to a mirror, take your pants down and prove (hopefully) there is a sac with a set of nuts hanging between your legs.... If you’re coming to Qatar with the rest of us I don’t want to hear any of this “God help us, we drew England or Germany” shit. We’re going into EVERY game with the intent of winning. Every game!  THIS IS NOT YOUR DAD’S OR YOUR GRANDPA’S CMNT - ITS YOURS, ALL YOURS. ITS A NEW CANADA, AND ITS WORLD CLASS EXCELLENCE!!! GET USED TO IT!

Edited February 3, 2022 by Wayverider

[TGAA_Star]

11 hours ago, cornerkick said:

could the result be voided and 3 points awarded to Jamaica?  playing games behind closed doors doesn't seem enough for something like this...

I would do it if I'm Infantino but will the FIFA President and his team look into this is the better question 

[umpiredice]

11 hours ago, EJsens1 said:

Yeah I wonder if they’ll get in shit from FIFA for this.  Imagine we go into a potential clinching game and many people from Canada want to go but can’t because they banned fans

Oh, crap. I just bought my airfares!

[Gian-Luca]

The banning of fans has usually been as a measure against the behaviour of fans, not infringing the rules as players. It is unfair if other teams are keeping out players due to Covid but Costa Rica plays them anyway. If its considered fielding ineligible players, I think the usual punishment is match forfeiture, though I am not sure what the precedent is when it comes to health protocols. Of course, there is also the open question of whether or not they knew the test results at the relevant time

[Wayverider]

A precedent case I can recall involved French Guyana playing an ineligible player (Florent Malouda) in the 2017 Gold Cup. Malouda previously had 80 caps with France and had been declared ineligible to play for French Guyana by FIFA. He played in a first round game for FG vs Honduras that ended in a 0-0 draw. The score was later changed to 3-0 in favour of Honduras.

according to FIFA’s rules: “If a player takes part in an official match despite being ineligible, his team will be sanctioned by forfeiting the match (cf. ... A team sanctioned with a forfeit is considered to have lost the match by 3-0. 2. If the goal difference at the end of the match is greater than three, the result on the pitch is upheld.”

Edited February 3, 2022 by Wayverider

[sstackho]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-10471835/Jamaica-launch-complaint-FIFA-Costa-Rica-fielding-two-Covid-positive-players.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

A Costa Rica statement however said: 'The Jamaican Federation stated in the weeks prior to the match that, due to restrictions by local authorities, the entire delegation had to take a PCR test upon arrival in Jamaica.

'These tests were carried out on Tuesday night and the results were available on Wednesday afternoon. In these tests, one player and three administrative staff of the delegation were positive as new cases, in addition to two players recently recovered from COVID-19.

'The new positives were immediately isolated and, as indicated by the protocol, these results were communicated to the FIFA delegation and the local authorities.

'At the same time, all the documentation was presented proving that the other two players who tested positive were recovered cases with fewer than 25 days of having had a positive result for COVID-19.

'Therefore, based on existing regulations and based on the documentation presented by the Costa Rican Football Federation, both FIFA and CONCACAF authorised the participation of said players.

'Once the first half of the match against the Jamaicans had passed, the officials of the Medical Commission of the Jamaican Football Federation stated that their recommendation was that the players not participate.

'This position did not come from any health authority in the country or from a soccer authority.'

 

 

[Allez les Rouges]

7 hours ago, Gian-Luca said:

I have been trying to figure out why Wikipedia has us clinching at least 4th place since Costa Rica can still technically speaking surpass us, and I have realized they are correct. Both Panama and Costa Rica would need to run the table to do that, which means they would both beat the US, which means that the US could at most only get 3 points from that window and still would finish below us.  Which means we are officially going to Qatar though there is a remote possibility that, due to goal differential, it would only be for the playoff. We would have to lose each game 3-0 and Costa Rica win big  in each game to drop us down to 4th in goal difference

The last part of this is not quite correct: Canada would drop to 4th regardless of goal differential if

- Canada loses all 3 games (25 points total)

- Panama wins all 3 games (26 points total)

- US wins both non-Panama games (27 points total)

- Mexico wins both non-US games (27 points total)

[Cblake]

Well it would have been a little tough to enjoy a cold one pardon the pun in Minnesota last night for the USA Honduras match last night. (  :

[narduch]

2 Canadians on team of the match day.

 

[Gian-Luca]

19 minutes ago, Allez les Rouges said:

The last part of this is not quite correct: Canada would drop to 4th regardless of goal differential if

- Canada loses all 3 games (25 points total)

- Panama wins all 3 games (26 points total)

- US wins both non-Panama games (27 points total)

- Mexico wins both non-US games (27 points total)

Yes but I was referring specifically to the hypothetical where Costa Rica and  Panama win out, and we lose to Jamaica, we still finish in no worse than fourth, because the US drops to 5th if that happens, even if they beat Mexico (assuming Mexico win their final two matches).

[Allez les Rouges]

3 minutes ago, Gian-Luca said:

Yes but I was referring specifically to the hypothetical where Costa Rica and  Panama win out, and we lose to Jamaica, we still finish in no worse than fourth, because the US drops to 5th if that happens, even if they beat Mexico (assuming Mexico win their final two matches).

Ah, gotcha - didn't grasp that you intended the hypothetical to keep applying to the last two sentences of the post.

Btw, Wikipedia actually prematurely put an (X) next to Canada after the result at El Salvador, removed it in a correction, and then correctly put it back after Mexico's win vs. Panama.

[Kent]

On 2/3/2022 at 12:26 AM, Cblake said:

Crazy to think, if you ignored the Maple Leaf at the end , who would believe this is Canada, undefeated in 17 games during this campaign including six straight victories after tonight. This feels so surreal, pinch me now. 

First off, that is beautifully symmetric.

Secondly. During/after that first 6 game win streak people were saying "Yeah but it's only Bermuda/Aruba/Cayman Islands/Suriname/Haiti. But now the second 6 game win streak is against Panama, Costa Rica, Mexico, Honduras, United States, and El Salvador. There are a lot less doubters now! Myself included I suppose!

[JAVIERF]

On 2/3/2022 at 4:09 PM, sstackho said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-10471835/Jamaica-launch-complaint-FIFA-Costa-Rica-fielding-two-Covid-positive-players.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

A Costa Rica statement however said: 'The Jamaican Federation stated in the weeks prior to the match that, due to restrictions by local authorities, the entire delegation had to take a PCR test upon arrival in Jamaica.

'These tests were carried out on Tuesday night and the results were available on Wednesday afternoon. In these tests, one player and three administrative staff of the delegation were positive as new cases, in addition to two players recently recovered from COVID-19.

'The new positives were immediately isolated and, as indicated by the protocol, these results were communicated to the FIFA delegation and the local authorities.

'At the same time, all the documentation was presented proving that the other two players who tested positive were recovered cases with fewer than 25 days of having had a positive result for COVID-19.

'Therefore, based on existing regulations and based on the documentation presented by the Costa Rican Football Federation, both FIFA and CONCACAF authorised the participation of said players.

'Once the first half of the match against the Jamaicans had passed, the officials of the Medical Commission of the Jamaican Football Federation stated that their recommendation was that the players not participate.

'This position did not come from any health authority in the country or from a soccer authority.'

 

 

If they were positives, they still cant play.  So Mexico could also ask for the points as well.