WCQ: Third Round - Window 4 (January 27- February 2, 2022)

[jonovision]

1 hour ago, footballfreak said:

To underline how much of a potential trap the back half of our schedule is, here are the results of all 36 Ocho games played so far from the perspective of the home team. 

• Road teams only won 6 of 36 games (16.7%), which is roughly in keeping with historical away win rates in the Hex*.
• No team in the top 4 has lost a home game yet.
• Fortunately, 5 of those 6 home loses are attributable to teams we have yet to play on the road.
• Only 1 team has lost the first match of a window at home: Honduras 2-3 to Panama. 2 losses came in match 2, 3 in match 3.

*I cannot remember the exact stat, but it was somewhere in the 15-20% range. Anyone have it?

The encouraging thing about this table, for me, is that the teams remaining on our away schedule have won a combined 5 of 17 home matches.

[JamboAl]

1 minute ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

You are basically saying you want us to go to Panama on the last day and get a result.

Well I don't. I don't think I could bear it. 

Which is why I'd much prefer to be able to lose to Panama, make them happy by taking out either the States or Mexico, and still go to Qatar.

What I meant was that I want us to be able to say we were in the Top 3 and would take anything in the Top 3.  If we need at least a point in Panama City, we are all gonna lose it.

[Neil R.]

It’s great that Panama will be facing an extremely motivated Costa Rican side. If Costa Rica wins, they’re only 2 points behind Panama. Lose, and they’re 8 points back.

Despite our history in Central America, I really think we can win in Honduras and El Salvador. This is the new Canada. We’ve taken points in Mexico and the United States. I like getting El Salvador as the third match in the window, and Honduras is winless in 8 matches. Honduras has given up 3 goals in the final 15 minutes of a home game, not once, but twice in the Octagonal. If there was ever a time to chart a new history for away results in Central America, this is it and I think we do it.

[SthMelbRed]

Straight up, we need to look at the next window as '7 points to lock up a World Cup berth'. I reckon that Panama will, at best, get 4 points from the window. If we increase our lead over them to 5 or more points going into the final window, they're not catching us.

[CanadianSoccerFan]

2 hours ago, Neil R. said:

It’s great that Panama will be facing an extremely motivated Costa Rican side. If Costa Rica wins, they’re only 2 points behind Panama. Lose, and they’re 8 points back.

Despite our history in Central America, I really think we can win in Honduras and El Salvador. This is the new Canada. We’ve taken points in Mexico and the United States. I like getting El Salvador as the third match in the window, and Honduras is winless in 8 matches. Honduras has given up 3 goals in the final 15 minutes of a home game, not once, but twice in the Octagonal. If there was ever a time to chart a new history for away results in Central America, this is it and I think we do it.

Costa Rica's covid restrictions combined with playing in that spacious track stadium really hurts their home advantage.  If they're serious about winning, they should move the game to Saprissa and (covid permitting) pack the joint like the days of old.  

[eramosat]

Quite simply, it's one game at a time from here on out.  And we'll all travel that path, the highs and the lows.  Nothing like sports for real drama.

[TGAA_Star]

11 hours ago, Neil R. said:

It’s great that Panama will be facing an extremely motivated Costa Rican side. If Costa Rica wins, they’re only 2 points behind Panama. Lose, and they’re 8 points back.

Despite our history in Central America, I really think we can win in Honduras and El Salvador. This is the new Canada. We’ve taken points in Mexico and the United States. I like getting El Salvador as the third match in the window, and Honduras is winless in 8 matches. Honduras has given up 3 goals in the final 15 minutes of a home game, not once, but twice in the Octagonal. If there was ever a time to chart a new history for away results in Central America, this is it and I think we do it.

💯 💯 💯 I would take this all day

[TGAA_Star]

10 hours ago, SthMelbRed said:

Straight up, we need to look at the next window as '7 points to lock up a World Cup berth'. I reckon that Panama will, at best, get 4 points from the window. If we increase our lead over them to 5 or more points going into the final window, they're not catching us.

If we somehow win the next 3 matches against Honduras, USA and El Salvador...that's 9 points out of the window giving us 25 points which would put us in a comfortable position 

[kobasew19]

29 minutes ago, TGAA_Star said:

If we somehow win the next 3 matches against Honduras, USA and El Salvador...that's 9 points out of the window giving us 25 points which would put us in a comfortable position 

Get 9 points, Panama gets only 1 point. Get drunk everyday the following week.

[El Diego]

11 hours ago, SthMelbRed said:

Straight up, we need to look at the next window as '7 points to lock up a World Cup berth'. I reckon that Panama will, at best, get 4 points from the window. If we increase our lead over them to 5 or more points going into the final window, they're not catching us.

I reckon this as well, but I've been reckoning that every window. I even reckon'd at the start of qualifying that Panama would finish last in the ocho (gulp), but those pesky Panamanians just won't go away.

[canuckgbp]

The margins are so thin. We feel we could of taken the full 3 points in Jamaica but we also could have easily drawn Mexico at home if it wasn't for Borjan's heroics. 

Honduras match still hurts but now we have an opportunity to go down and make up for it. 

We are also getting to a point where yellows could really change how teams without depth operate. Panama during the first window didn't rotate. Second window I believe they did more of it. Last window with only 2 matches helped them.

Not sure what Panama's card situation is but I think this will help us out. We have some cards of our own but we have the depth to deal with it I think. 

[Yoginess]

13 hours ago, Neil R. said:

It’s great that Panama will be facing an extremely motivated Costa Rican side. If Costa Rica wins, they’re only 2 points behind Panama. Lose, and they’re 8 points back.

Despite our history in Central America, I really think we can win in Honduras and El Salvador. This is the new Canada. We’ve taken points in Mexico and the United States. I like getting El Salvador as the third match in the window, and Honduras is winless in 8 matches. Honduras has given up 3 goals in the final 15 minutes of a home game, not once, but twice in the Octagonal. If there was ever a time to chart a new history for away results in Central America, this is it and I think we do it.

I don't disagree that this is a new Canada and we can take points off of Central America teams. You have to be talented enough and disciplined enough to hang with US & Mexico away. Honduras, El Salvador, Panama will all be straight up no rules street fights. They are very different IMO.

Nothing would be better for my mental state than 3 points away to Honduras. 

[TGAA_Star]

5 minutes ago, Yoginess said:

I don't disagree that this is a new Canada and we can take points off of Central America teams. You have to be talented enough and disciplined enough to hang with US & Mexico away. Honduras, El Salvador, Panama will all be straight up no rules street fights. They are very different IMO.

Nothing would be better for my mental state than 3 points away to Honduras. 

Well Honduras in qualifying have been disappointing to say the least but then so have El Salvador which has got to count for something 

[El Diego]

1 hour ago, TGAA_Star said:

Well Honduras in qualifying have been disappointing to say the least but then so have El Salvador which has got to count for something 

El Salvador I expected to be this poor, but Honduras really surprised me. I had them as a top 4 team!

[Kent]

Just looking at the matchups Panama and us have both already played and comparing.

Home vs Mexico - Canada win, Panama draw. +2 points for Canada.
Home vs Costa Rica - Canada win, Panama draw. +2 points for Canada.
Away vs Jamaica - Canada draw, Panama win. +2 points for Panama.

So we are +2 in those 3 matches. Panama has played away vs Honduras and El Salvador, and home vs USA. In those 3 games (the 3 games in our next window) they got 6 points. So if we don't get 6+ points, they are cutting the gap in those matches.

The only matchup that Panama has in the next window that we have also had is Mexico away. Obviously we got a draw in that game, so it will be interesting to see how Panama does relative to that.

[Shway]

So time an location confirmed for Hamilton.

Thanks @admin for working your contacts and getting the game schedule for early afternoon!

Makes arranging the group much easier.

Edited December 9, 2021 by Shway

[Big_M]

Whitmore out as Jamaica head coach and they apparently bring Paul Hall who has no head coaching experience...and looks like Mariappa finally signed somewhere joining Macarthur of A-League...looking at their squad its not impossible they try to get Dunn as part of their heavy recruiting campaign

https://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/sports/20211209/paul-hall-take-charge-reggae-boyz

[Free kick]

With four of their remaining six games at home, Mexico has a very favorable schedule.  They would be the betting favorite to top the group given that they are only 2 pts behind Canada. Canada has only two of their remaining games at home. 

Panama has three home and three away.  But the remaining away games are CRC, Mex, & US.  I could realistically see them getting no points from their remaining away matches and hence the very maximum points that they could finish with is 23.  

Which means that Canada would need 24 points or a 2-2-2 record.  With home games versus US and Jam & away to Hon, ES, CRC and Pan, this means that 7 points in the next window  should seal the deal because they would just need one point in the final window in March (CRC, Jam, Pan).  

 

Edited December 10, 2021 by Free kick

[Shway]

9 hours ago, Big_M said:

Whitmore out as Jamaica head coach and they apparently bring Paul Hall who has no head coaching experience...and looks like Mariappa finally signed somewhere joining Macarthur of A-League...looking at their squad its not impossible they try to get Dunn as part of their heavy recruiting campaign

https://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/sports/20211209/paul-hall-take-charge-reggae-boyz

Lol Dunn would be a real shocker to bring into their program. Especially for a newly appointed coach.

They are only going to bring in proven, experienced guys. Nows not the time for Flores-esque call ups for Jamaica.

I would more suspect they would return to the experienced guys they initially recruited in Chey Dunkley, Isaac Hayden, Mason Holgate, Ben Godfrey, Dujon Sterling, Kyle Walker-Peters… all guys with more game experience.

[Big_M]

News for this window was that they removed whitmore...about dunn was talking about in general not necessarily for this window...this campaign is almost over for them and they will have to look to the future

[TGAA_Star]

On 11/22/2021 at 9:23 PM, Neil R. said:

It’s great that Panama will be facing an extremely motivated Costa Rican side. If Costa Rica wins, they’re only 2 points behind Panama. Lose, and they’re 8 points back.

Despite our history in Central America, I really think we can win in Honduras and El Salvador. This is the new Canada. We’ve taken points in Mexico and the United States. I like getting El Salvador as the third match in the window, and Honduras is winless in 8 matches. Honduras has given up 3 goals in the final 15 minutes of a home game, not once, but twice in the Octagonal. If there was ever a time to chart a new history for away results in Central America, this is it and I think we do it.

Yeah I believe at best if we win all 3 games next window, we basically lock up a Qatar 2022 berth. Which won't be all that shocking especially if that happens because we've been unbeaten so far in qualifying which should say a lot about this team.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

Offseason:

Borjan
Crépeau
Pantemis / St. Clair / Hasal / Breza

Johnston
Miller
Henry
Laryea
Brault-Guillard (still injured?)
Sturing
Morgan / Godinho / Bassong / Gutiérrez / Singh / Waterman

Piette
Osorio
Kaye
Fraser
Shaffelburg
Teibert / Chapman / Nelson / Okello / Choinière (×2) / Priso (still injured?)

Cavallini
Millar
Akindele
Marshall-Rutty
Akinola (almost certainly still injured)

 

The last match prior to the window for those not in offseason:

Friday, January 21st:

Larin & Hutchinson - Beşiktaş
Eustáquio - Paços de Ferreira
Arfield - Rangers (if not allowed to attend Camp Poutine - yes, I'm including him in my list!)
Brym - FC Eindhoven (yes, I'm also including him in my list!)

Saturday, January 22nd:

Vitória - Moreirense
Cornelius - Panetolikos
David - LOSC Lille
Jr. Hoilett - Reading

Sunday, January 23rd:

Adekugbe - Hatayspor
Kennedy - Jahn Regensburg
Davies - Bayern Munich
Buchanan - Club Brugge
Ugbo -  K.R.C. Genk

 

If anybody was thinking that against Honduras we would see a backline with both Adekugbe & Kennedy and an attacking combo of Ugbo + Buchanan, I'm sorry to burst your bubble; too many "Sunday" guys!

Edited December 29, 2021 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[trc2014]

Genuine question a are people optimistic this whole window is actually going to happen? See World Juniors cancellation.

[spitfire]

Millar is in preseason for the 2nd half of the season he’s off to Dubai Jan 3-14… with a 4 team tournament ..

[Sal333]

58 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

Offseason:

Borjan
Crépeau
Pantemis / St. Clair / Hasal / Breza

Johnston
Miller
Henry
Laryea
Brault-Guillard (still injured?)
Sturing
Morgan / Godinho / Bassong / Gutiérrez / Singh / Waterman

Piette
Osorio
Kaye
Fraser
Shaffelburg
Teibert / Chapman / Nelson / Okello / Choinière (×2) / Priso (still injured?)

Cavallini
Millar
Akindele
Marshall-Rutty
Akinola (almost certainly still injured)

 

The last match prior to the window for those not in offseason:

Friday, January 21st:

Larin & Hutchinson - Beşiktaş
Eustáquio - Paços de Ferreira
Arfield - Rangers (if not allowed to attend Camp Poutine - yes, I'm including him in my list!)
Brym - FC Eindhoven (yes, I'm also including him in my list!)

Saturday, January 22nd:

Vitória - Moreirense
Cornelius - Panetolikos
David - LOSC Lille
Jr. Hoilett - Reading

Sunday, January 23rd:

Adekugbe - Hatayspor
Kennedy - Jahn Regensburg
Davies - Bayern Munich
Buchanan - Club Brugge
Ugbo -  K.R.C. Genk

 

If anybody was thinking that against Honduras we would see a backline with both Adekugbe & Kennedy and an attacking combo of Ugbo + Buchanan, I'm sorry to burst your bubble; too many "Sunday" guys!

When the local radio (TSN 690) were talking about Johnston they mentioned CF Mtl was starting camp on January 7. Is that enough time to get the boys at least in shape if not in form? And does anyone know when other camps start?