WCQ: Third Round - Window 4 (January 27- February 2, 2022)

[QBCS]

Wow. Beatiful, what a team.

Edited January 31, 2022 by QBCS

[Cheeta]

31 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

The forecast in Minnesota for game time Wednesday night is -16 celsius!!!  Good lord!  The Hondurans might not bother showing up at this rate.  

Never mind, the Americans might not bother showing up.

Seriously, who thought this was a good idea?  Somebody from someplace other than Minnesota that's who.  Yeah, sure, southern Minnesota doesn't usually suffer from that sort of weather this time of year.... BUT IT CAN.  AND IT DOES. 

ALL-THE-TIME. 

Outstanding venue.  Wrong time of year.  Madness. 

 

[maplebanana]

9 minutes ago, footballfreak said:

Eating dinner so I’m not about to type out all the permutations, but the other poster is right. A win against El Salvador and a Panama-Mexico draw clinches, but a result either way would not.

In the event of a draw, we would not clinch finishing ahead of Panama, but that scenario would preclude all three of USA, Mexico and Panama from finishing ahead of us because of the games remaining between those three.

Given the way Javier is arguing about likelihood instead of mathematical certainty, I'm pretty sure he didn't do the combinations to verify it. But I'll do that now:

Canada win, and USA win, MEX-PAN draw puts us at CAN 25, USA 21, MEX 19, PAN 18.

Last window:

CAN loses all 3

USA draw MEX, draw PAN, beat CRC -> USA at 26

MEX draw USA, beat HON, beat ESV -> MEX at 26

PAN beat HON, draw USA, beat CAN -> PAN at 25

So this would end MEX 26, USA 26, CAN/PAN both at 25 and it goes to GD.

But I think @thehabsfan is right. If USA loses to HON, with PAN/MEX/USA all playing each other, then they can't all rise above us.

Bottom line: win in ESV and a lot has to go wrong for us not to qualify.

[thehabsfan]

1 hour ago, footballfreak said:

Should be noted that a draw in the MEX-PAN game would drop our auto-qualifying number to 24 unless I’ve missed something. 

A Canada win and a Panama-Mexico draw means we’re 100% in. 2/3 would be able to pass us, but not all 3.

 

Wouldn’t Costa Rica also have to draw or lose on Wednesday? Otherwise they could theoretically tie us in points.

[apbsmith]

Can't describe how MASSIVE these 6 POINTS are to the squad, the program, the players and everything. 

Especially the way results have played out in out region.  

There will be NO banana peel on Wednesday and I'm confident all the brothers have one common goal when called upon and we make this the perfect window! 

Love this team, love our country! 

[footballfreak]

Card update. Apologies for the size discrepancy from page to page, but I’m too lazy to recrop them.

Suspended next match: Vitoria (Canada), Damion Lowe (Jamaica), Bfryan Landaverde (El Salvador), Hector Moreno (Mexico), Luis Rodriguez (Mexico).

Longterm opponent watch - number of players on yellows: Costa Rica (12), Jamaica (12), Panama (5)

[apbsmith]

3 hours ago, The Beaver 2.0 said:

If we are through before the final window, then we need to treat the final three games as a chance to stay sharp and prepare for Qatar. Maybe we bring in a couple of young(er) guys, but I don't think you mess with the culture.

This, ^ thank you! 

Plus win out! Pot 3... It's still a slim possibility. Just keep winning!

[cornerkick]

1 hour ago, Floortom said:

Good lord how bad is Honduras to lose 2-0 to El Salvador at home.

I dont understand how they can be this terrible

i saw a bit of the first half, Honduras rotated the team and featured a lot of names i wasn't familiar with except Kevin Lopez..  Elis , Quioto came on the in the second half.  seemed like there was even less of an atmosphere than the game on Thursday

i think El Sal have real aspirations for 2026, it's a long term project...

Edited January 31, 2022 by cornerkick

[jonovision]

^ El Salvador are a young team and don't have the talent, yet, but are well organized and well managed.

[footballfreak]

9 minutes ago, maplebanana said:

Given the way Javier is arguing about likelihood instead of mathematical certainty, I'm pretty sure he didn't do the combinations to verify it. But I'll do that now:

Canada win, and USA win, MEX-PAN draw puts us at CAN 25, USA 21, MEX 19, PAN 18.

Last window:

CAN loses all 3

USA draw MEX, draw PAN, beat CRC -> USA at 26

MEX draw USA, beat HON, beat ESV -> MEX at 26

PAN beat HON, draw USA, beat CAN -> PAN at 25

So this would end MEX 26, USA 26, CAN/PAN both at 25 and it goes to GD.

But I think @thehabsfan is right. If USA loses to HON, with PAN/MEX/USA all playing each other, then they can't all rise above us.

Bottom line: win in ESV and a lot has to go wrong for us not to qualify.

Absolutely right. I miscalculated and didn’t do the “all draws” scenario between those three because I incorrectly assumed the dropped points would make it too inefficient. It’s still more inefficient than those three trading wins, but not enough so for us to clinch.

 

[OhCanadaOhBaby]

Wait just to clarify... Just read on twitter if we WIN vs ELS, if USA LOSE vs HON, and if MEX WIN vs PAN on top of any JAM results over CSR.. then we are in😂???

Can anyone confirm?

Edited January 31, 2022 by OhCanadaOhBaby
Error

[Ngravs]

28 minutes ago, apbsmith said:

Can't describe how MASSIVE these 6 POINTS are to the squad, the program, the players and everything. 

Especially the way results have played out in out region.  

There will be NO banana peel on Wednesday and I'm confident all the brothers have one common goal when called upon and we make this the perfect window! 

Love this team, love our country! 

It’s funny. We say this every window since September and are still not technically qualified. Just goes to show the gruelling path to the World Cup in the region.  

[sstackho]

Just got back home from a long and beautiful day out.  I love you all.

And the Elo model loves Canada. 

[dyslexic nam]

31 minutes ago, Ngravs said:

It’s funny. We say this every window since September and are still not technically qualified. Just goes to show the gruelling path to the World Cup in the region.  

It’s true.  We have played 10 of 14 games, are undefeated, and the top 3 qualify - and we are still not technically through yet.  

[An Observer]

5 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

It’s true.  We have played 10 of 14 games, are undefeated, and the top 3 qualify - and we are still not technically through yet.  

Honestly, if you said before qualifying we would have not lost in our first 10 games, beat Mexico and US at home and tied both on the road and beat Honduras away, I would have thought we surely would have qualified already.  I think the surprise is how bad Jamaica and Honduras have been which means the top 4 or 5 have really separated from the bottom 3.   El Salvador is kinda points wise where I thought they would be.

[TOcanadafan]

1 hour ago, OhCanadaOhBaby said:

Wait just to clarify... Just read on twitter if we WIN vs ELS, if USA LOSE vs HON, and if MEX WIN vs PAN on top of any JAM results over CSR.. then we are in😂???

Can anyone confirm?

Yes, I think this is the only way we qualify after this window, and I highly doubt US is losing .  The Pan-Mex tie, Canada win would be sweet… I wouldn’t be sweating an 11+ goal difference advantage on Panama.  

Edited January 31, 2022 by TOcanadafan

[sstackho]

Despite Wheeler's optimism, a Canada win over El Salvador is not enough on its own to fully guarantee a Top 3 finish. 

But it's like really, really, close. 

Edited January 31, 2022 by sstackho

[Treppy2]

1 hour ago, sstackho said:

Just got back home from a long and beautiful day out.  I love you all.

And the Elo model loves Canada. 

So from the ELO model, with a 0.0% chance of finishing in 5th place, Canada is officially going to Qatar! (Either for the finals or the intercontinental playoff.) 😀

[Free kick]

1 hour ago, sstackho said:

Despite Wheeler's optimism, a Canada win over El Salvador is not enough on its own to fully guarantee a Top 3 finish. 

But it's like really, really, close. 

Yes, with 13 pts up on the sixth place (ES) and 4 games remaining,  its mathematically impossible to finish 6th.

With 9pts up on 5th place CRC and 4 games remaining, CRC would have win all its games and canada lose all its games but in doing so,CRC would have beaten the US, who is also just behind us hence making it even harder for both the US and CRC to leap frog Canada.  Plus there is the goal diff of 12 versus the goal diff of 0 that CRC has.  Plus CRC cant score goals to save their lives, they only have 7 in 10 games.  I dont see a realistic path where  canada ends 5th.  

As for finishing fourth:  the gap is 5pts and Pan has to go to the Azteca for the final game of this window and Cnad goes to ES,  so how does Pan close a 5pts gap before the end of this window? Again, not realistic.  So Cnada goes into the final window with at worst a 5pts gap on 4th. Plus Panama has to play away to the US in the final window and the US is also behind us, so even the US would have to surpass us. 
 

we are almost ata point where not qualifying for Qatar has comparable odds to winning the lottery. 

 

Edited January 31, 2022 by Free kick

[TGAA_Star]

If we beat El Salvador, puts us on 25 points heading into the final March window where we see Costa Rica, Jamaica and Panama. But if we win on Wednesday, we are as good as qualified more or less with 3 games left to go. Then in the last 3 games, we could rest some of our starters and put in some of our guys who haven't gotten game time or who have had limited game time.

[JAVIERF]

7 minutes ago, TGAA_Star said:

If we beat El Salvador, puts us on 25 points heading into the final March window where we see Costa Rica, Jamaica and Panama. But if we win on Wednesday, we are as good as qualified more or less with 3 games left to go. Then in the last 3 games, we could rest some of our starters and put in some of our guys who haven't gotten game time or who have had limited game time.

Canada have to go all out attack on Wednesday.  It is the most important game of this last 4 matches as things are.  This is the way.  If "you are gonna burn your ships" for a win, it has to be in El Salvador, next 3 you could play sensible football.  This match is massive.  

Edited January 31, 2022 by JAVIERF

[footballfreak]

This match has proven that Canada has transcended the need for central midfielders. Expecting a fully midfielderless system against El Salvador.

 

Larin         David.       Ugbo           Cav.          Tajon

                               (The Void)

Adekugbe   Miller   Cornelius.   Johnston   Laryea

                                   Borjan

 

[Unnamed Trialist]

7 hours ago, footballfreak said:

Card update. Apologies for the size discrepancy from page to page, but I’m too lazy to recrop them.

Suspended next match: Vitoria (Canada), Damion Lowe (Jamaica), Bfryan Landaverde (El Salvador), Hector Moreno (Mexico), Luis Rodriguez (Mexico).

Longterm opponent watch - number of players on yellows: Costa Rica (12), Jamaica (12), Panama (5)

In cases like this would you send Vitoria back home early? I mean, okay, brotherhood, but he's aging and that travel is brutal. 

[footballfreak]

Just now, Unnamed Trialist said:

In cases like this would you send Vitoria back home early? I mean, okay, brotherhood, but he's aging and that travel is brutal. 

100% imo. We’ll need him in March to put this to bed. Better that he gets a few extra days of rest at home. 

[TGAA_Star]

I wonder if we get Phonzie back for the March window of games?