WCQ: Third Round - Window 4 (January 27- February 2, 2022)

[Unnamed Trialist]

4 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

I don’t think Herdman or the CSA are “responsible” for getting them into game-shape, and I don’t think anyone is really making that argument.   I think the idea is that it would be far better for our WCQ chances of our best guys enter the January window in the best shape possible.  I think a lot of our guys will want this so bad (and will absolutely want to keep their starting spot nailed down) that they will put the work in.  But the common belief is that no training can replicate the level of fitness and sharpness that comes from playing competitive games.  If we want to optimize our chances, training harder through intra-squad games in the buildup to the January games is one way of doing it - regardless of whose responsibility it is to stay fit.  

With proper preparation, the January window could almost seal the campaign.  I think we should be able to get 3 points in ES.  One more win from the other two games would put us on 22 points.   I know the goalposts keep moving in terms of the projected points needed, but we could almost book our spot in Qatar if we can win twice.  We should be doing absolutely anything possible to make that happen.  
 

Miller, Johnston, Laryea, Oso, Piette Kaye, Cavallini. Three of which start regularly. I appreciate it's 25-30% of the line-up. But it's not a majority. 

You could also ask them to come in with the trainers for 7-10 days indoors in Toronto or Montreal. 

 

[footballfreak]

15 hours ago, JohnnyFranchise said:

Evening games and more subs should lessen the impact of the heat/humidity on the games. Bring the best players we've got, we'll be just fine.

It’s not just heat and humidity, though that’s part of it. The slow, bumpy pitches suit certain play styles better than others, and will neutralize our skill advantage somewhat. Some players travel better than others. Etc.

Central American home advantage is a real thing, and the fans are only a part of that. Better teams than this Canada side have fallen there. Having players who know what to expect and how to play in those conditions has merit.

I’m not advocating sitting Davies for Piette, simply saying if all else is equal (and there is not a lot separating some positions), conditions/travel should be a factor. MLS players will bet out of season, but one thing they can absolutely do is handle travel/heat.

[footballfreak]

15 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Miller, Johnston, Laryea, Oso, Piette Kaye, Cavallini. Three of which start regularly. I appreciate it's 25-30% of the line-up. But it's not a majority. 

You could also ask them to come in with the trainers for 7-10 days indoors in Toronto or Montreal. 

 

Not taking one side or the other. Just offering some numbers for context.

% of Total Ocho Minutes Played by MLS players

Johnston 88.1%

Laryea 85.0%

Miller 78.9%

Buchanan 72.2%

Kaye 47.2%

Osorio 44.9%

Crepeau 37.5%

Piette 15.1%

Fraser 1.9%

Cavallini 1.8%

—-

Cumulatively, MLS players accounted for 43.0% of Ocho minutes played. Excluding Buchanan, that number is 36.4%. So it’s not half, but it’s definitely more than 25-30%.

 

 

 

[MauditYvon]

You can leave out Crépeau. Si it’s about 1/3 of your players. Kennedy is back from injury and can take one of the CBs spot. Small concern there for the 3rd spot. You can play Henry/Cornelius/James.

Arfield for Kaye? 

Edited November 20, 2021 by MauditYvon

[trc2014]

Potential hurt to our January depth.  I think you now need to call Arfield - assuming he is willing.

[PegCityCam]

Cool little vid about home field advantage in CONCACAF. Also, a little reminder not to count our chickens... 

 

[Free kick]

On 11/19/2021 at 4:08 PM, Unnamed Trialist said:

Totally against playing friendlies in January. Intersquad. 

 

100%.  the importance of friendlies sometimes gets overblown.  ES  played friendlies just before the recent window and look how that went:

ES-Jam result 1-1 

Pan-ES result: 2-1

I am not saying that friendlies have no value what so ever. It just that there is a time and place for them.  If you have a good players, you have a good team. if you have bad players, you have bad team.  playing friendlies or the number of friendlies is not going to change that.   There are MLS players on other teams in the Octagonal not just canada.

 

Edited November 20, 2021 by Free kick

[dyslexic nam]

22 minutes ago, Free kick said:

PS.:  as for this notion that we need a friendly in Jan becasue of MLS, well there are other teams that also have a lot of MLS players.   

I don’t get this argument.  If other teams will be in worse shape than they are now and their players less fit, that doesn’t seem like a reason to accept something similar for our guys.  It seems like an opportunity to work harder and gain an advantage in what will be 3 massively important games.   The way Panama have kept accumulating points, we need to keep getting wins.  

And taking the single example of the 2nd worst team in the entire qualification process (who played two teams above them in the standings) doesn’t actually prove anything with respect to the value of friendlies at a time when a number of our players will be out of season.  
 

[footballfreak]

1 hour ago, MauditYvon said:

You can leave out Crépeau. Si it’s about 1/3 of your players. Kennedy is back from injury and can take one of the CBs spot. Small concern there for the 3rd spot. You can play Henry/Cornelius/James.

Arfield for Kaye? 

You don’t leave out data points. Injuries happen all over the field. Crepeau played because Borjan wasn’t available, but it could just as easily have been Piette or Fraser filling in for an injured Eustaquio.

Edited November 20, 2021 by footballfreak

[prairiecanuck]

On 11/18/2021 at 6:37 PM, dyslexic nam said:

I started a thread on this a few weeks back but it is now probably better to have the discussion about the potential player pool here in the new window thread.  

With the MLS guys (and others) either out of season or just back in pre-season, are there guys that should be brought into (or back into) the team on the basis that they are playing in Europe and thus are in game shape.   I think the main guys that will be out of season are Johnston, Miller, Henry, Piette, Laryea, Kaye, Oso, and Cav (prob missing some). That is a few for sure, but not fatal.

- In attack, we seem fine.  Larin, David, Davies, and Ugbo would all be mid-season, and Tajon should be training and playing with Brugge as of January 1st.  Plus we have Millar and Corbeanu waiting to grab spots when the opportunity presents itself.  In theory, a guy like Jebbison could even get called.   Seems like plenty of depth and options.

- In defence, we have a couple of issues.  Johnston, Miller and Henry (I think) will all be out of season and that is a pretty big core of defenders.  That leaves Vitoria in the middle, with Adekugbe  and Kennedy (assuming he is fully healthy) on the left.   Would Kennedy be able to pair with Vitoria in the middle of a back 4?   A guy like Halbouni would be in game shape and can play in the middle but you can’t avoid the fact that he currently plays for the B squad of a 2nd division team (albeit a very famous one).  Cornelius would also still be in midseason form and could be in the conversation.   It seems like RB is the main issue - but if I had to bet on a couple of MLS guys being able to maintain excellent fitness in the off season, it would probably be Johnston and Laryea.  So maybe not too bad overall.

- Defensive midfield seems fairly good.  Eustaquio is always there and Atiba provides excellent coverage.  Piette would be out of season, and as much as I love the guy, I don’t have a lot of faith that he would show up in January in WCQ-game shape.  That isn’t really a lot of depth there - we would be one injury away from being completely reliant on one guy.

- In the centre of the park on the attacking side, both Oso and Kaye have logged major minutes so far in this process but will be well out of season. Arfield is a clear example of a guy who will be in mid season shape and could come back in to the team - assuming that door hasn’t actually been shut and locked (whether from the inside or outside) for months now. Hoilett could also be back and healthy - which would be a big help.  Wotherspoon is also available and in season.  On a more “out there” note, this is where a guy like Flores could theoretically get a sub appearance - or even Jebbison if he was played in this position.   And Ferdi would obviously be a call-up most would welcome to strengthen this area. 

Bottom line is that losing the MLS guys definitely does impact the core of our team.  We will mainly feel it on the defensive side of things and in central midfield.   But it seems like we should have the depth to handle it without taking a big hit in quality   For me, the bigger worry is about team chemistry.   

Kennedy was back today, albeit in a 4 to 1 loss.     Jahn Regensburg play a back 4 pretty much every game and Scott is their left sided Centre back.  He'd pair fine with Vitoria in the middle on a back 4. 

Corbeanu has been in great form lately and playing at wingback.  I really hope he's in the plans for January.  His new position at Sheffield Wednesday gives him some added flexibility too.  

[Unnamed Trialist]

1 hour ago, Free kick said:

100%.  the importance of friendlies sometimes gets overblown.  ES  played friendlies just before the recent window and look how that went:

ES-Jam result 1-1 

Pan-ES result: 2-1

I am not saying that friendlies have no value what so ever. It just that there is a time and place for them.  If you have a good players, you have a good team. if you have bad players, you have bad team.  playing friendlies or the number of friendlies is not going to change that.   There are MLS players on other teams in the Octagonal not just canada.

We are totally saturated with 3-match windows, and have played so much these last 10 months we're the leading scoring nation in the world. And fans calling for friendlies.

A friendly means you can't train the day before 100%, you lose game day, you lose the next day for the starters.

Then the notion is you stick your guys playing regularly into these too? Really, guys playing weekly in Europe have to help the MLS guys get up to parcby driving them into the ground? 

Now I agree game sharpness is important for the 5-6 MLS guys plus Henry. You can't get it in 10 days, friendly or not. But a friendly can get u injuries. Something intense scrimmaging can avoid. For me the best case scenario: intersquad, and bringing in some fringe and younger guys to round out the numbers. 

Edited November 20, 2021 by Unnamed Trialist

[maccaliam]

What a time to be alive when the Canadian MNT are first place in WCQ, we are top goal scorers in the world for the year, and fans are advocating for fewer matches.

[Free kick]

2 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

I don’t get this argument.  If other teams will be in worse shape than they are now and their players less fit, that doesn’t seem like a reason to accept something similar for our guys.  It seems like an opportunity to work harder and gain an advantage in what will be 3 massively important games.   The way Panama have kept accumulating points, we need to keep getting wins.  

And taking the single example of the 2nd worst team in the entire qualification process (who played two teams above them in the standings) doesn’t actually prove anything with respect to the value of friendlies at a time when a number of our players will be out of season.  
 

You can be sure that there will be some preparation of some sort for these games.   If they play a friendly, fine.  if not then a scrimmage or intra squad or game in Florida against a university squad will probably do.  Its all the same.  Basically, you want the team ready to play.   Being "Ready" could mean different things and not necessarily mean friendlies.   i am all for second guessing because that's what we do here and that's why we are here.  But on this topic, i will entirely defer to what Herdman  thinks is best.  I am sure he too wants to qualify for Qatar.

But I have seen through the years the idea of friendlies become an excuse for results that didn't go our way when the opponent we were facing was just plain better.   Its entirely possible that we could lose to the US in the next window.  they do have a good team.   Are we going to trot out this excuse again?  We have seen WCQ cycles where (in the lead up) we played many friendlies against even top ranked European sides and other WCQ cycles where we played fewer.  the results were no different.   Again, i am not saying that friendlies dont have value or importance but its relative to many other factors.  This is really the point i am getting at.

Edited November 20, 2021 by Free kick

[Free kick]

2 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

A friendly means you can't train the day before 100%, you lose game day, you lose the next day for the starters.

Then the notion is you stick your guys playing regularly into these too? Really, guys playing weekly in Europe have to help the MLS guys get up to parcby driving them into the ground? 

 

you also have to find a window to play this game.  and an opponent who is available on that window. and its gotta be not too close to the days that you will be playing the game in Honduras.....and i know we (the Voyageurs) are not paying for it out of our own pockets but someone still has to foot the bill.   it does also come down to a cost benefit thing.    

Edited November 21, 2021 by Free kick

[Strait Red]

The old “buried loonie” works again

 

[BearcatSA]

Quick question about Canada-USA:  is that going to be a TSN broadcast like the first match in Nashville?

Edited November 21, 2021 by BearcatSA

[king1010]

4 minutes ago, BearcatSA said:

Quick question about Canada-USA:  is that going to be a TSN broadcast like the first match in Nashville?

No. Onesoccer. Its just usa home games that onesoccer didnt get the rights. 

[Kent]

^ And also on Sportsnet of course.

[footballfreak]

To underline how much of a potential trap the back half of our schedule is, here are the results of all 36 Ocho games played so far from the perspective of the home team. 

• Road teams only won 6 of 36 games (16.7%), which is roughly in keeping with historical away win rates in the Hex*.
• No team in the top 4 has lost a home game yet.
• Fortunately, 5 of those 6 home loses are attributable to teams we have yet to play on the road.
• Only 1 team has lost the first match of a window at home: Honduras 2-3 to Panama. 2 losses came in match 2, 3 in match 3.

*I cannot remember the exact stat, but it was somewhere in the 15-20% range. Anyone have it?

[DeRo_Is_King]

1 hour ago, footballfreak said:

To underline how much of a potential trap the back half of our schedule is, here are the results of all 36 Ocho games played so far from the perspective of the home team. 

• Road teams only won 6 of 36 games (16.7%), which is roughly in keeping with historical away win rates in the Hex*.
• No team in the top 4 has lost a home game yet.
• Fortunately, 5 of those 6 home loses are attributable to teams we have yet to play on the road.
• Only 1 team has lost the first match of a window at home: Honduras 2-3 to Panama. 2 losses came in match 2, 3 in match 3.

*I cannot remember the exact stat, but it was somewhere in the 15-20% range. Anyone have it?

Thanks for this. If it's any consolation, the U.S. have yet to play away at Mexico. That means they still have to play us and Mexico away in the final six games. I thought I'd point that out as an advantage since we are competing with the U.S. for top spot. 

[johnyb]

1 hour ago, footballfreak said:

To underline how much of a potential trap the back half of our schedule is, here are the results of all 36 Ocho games played so far from the perspective of the home team. 

• Road teams only won 6 of 36 games (16.7%), which is roughly in keeping with historical away win rates in the Hex*.
• No team in the top 4 has lost a home game yet.
• Fortunately, 5 of those 6 home loses are attributable to teams we have yet to play on the road.
• Only 1 team has lost the first match of a window at home: Honduras 2-3 to Panama. 2 losses came in match 2, 3 in match 3.

*I cannot remember the exact stat, but it was somewhere in the 15-20% range. Anyone have it?

I was looking at this thinking we have an advantage over everyone else because we're the only team that has played Mexico twice. Which got me thinking, Mexico is looking at this chart saying they have an advantage over everyone else because they're the only team that has played Canada twice!!!!! 

[JamboAl]

14 minutes ago, DeRo_Is_King said:

Thanks for this. If it's any consolation, the U.S. have yet to play away at Mexico. That means they still have to play us and Mexico away in the final six games. I thought I'd point that out as an advantage since we are competing with the U.S. for top spot. 

Aren't we competing for a top three spot?  After not having gone to the WC since 1986, I will celebrate unreservedly if someone guaranteed we would finish third.

[DeRo_Is_King]

2 minutes ago, JamboAl said:

Aren't we competing for a top three spot?  After not having gone to the WC since 1986, I will celebrate unreservedly if someone guaranteed we would finish third.

Of course, top three would be great and get us to Qatar. I just think we have what it takes to take first. 

[Unnamed Trialist]

5 minutes ago, JamboAl said:

Aren't we competing for a top three spot?  After not having gone to the WC since 1986, I will celebrate unreservedly if someone guaranteed we would finish third.

You are basically saying you want us to go to Panama on the last day and get a result.

Well I don't. I don't think I could bear it. 

Which is why I'd much prefer to be able to lose to Panama, make them happy by taking out either the States or Mexico, and still go to Qatar.

[narduch]

TFC have confirmed their home openness is March 5 next season. 

Doubt they want to get BMO Field ready 5 weeks earlier.