WCQ: Third Round - Window 4 (January 27- February 2, 2022)

[sstackho]

1 hour ago, sstackho said:

WOOTWOOTWOOTWOOTWOOTWOOTWOOTWOOTWOOTWOOTWOOTWOOTWOOTWOOT

The Elo model is very excited.  So excited that it has now placed Canada in the second column.  

Here's the impact to Canada's Top 3 chances based on the Home / Draw / Away results of Sunday's matches - according to the model.  Time to cheer for Mexico again.

[footballfreak]

Updated card situation. Calm before the storm tonight.

The only suspension for next round is Jamaica’s Damion Lowe. Does anyone know if he will still be on a previous yellow after he serves his red card suspension? I’ve never been sure on that.

Chucky Lozano has now cleared his suspension and is eligible again.

Panama remains the most disciplined team in the Ocho, with only 9 cards total in 9 games. Canada remains the most carded team.

Canada has 10 players in this camp on a yellow now: Henry, Vitoria, Laryea, Adekugbe, Eustaquio, Hutchinson, Kaye, Piette, Fraser, Cavallini.

Edited January 28, 2022 by footballfreak
Forgot to add Je-Vaughn Watson also cleared his suspension and is eligible for Jamaica.

[scullion44]

10 minutes ago, footballfreak said:

Updated card situation. Calm before the storm tonight.

The only suspension for next round is Jamaica’s Damion Lowe. Does anyone know if he will still be on a previous yellow after he serves his red card suspension? I’ve never been sure on that.

Chucky Lozano has now cleared his suspension and is eligible again.

Panama remains the most discplined team in the Ocho, with only 9 cards total in 9 games. Canada remains the most carded team.

Canada has 10 players in this camp on a yellow now: Henry, Vitoria, Laryea, Adekugbe, Eustaquio, Hutchinson, Kaye, Piette, Fraser, Cavallini.

What are the green players? Just woke up and can't figure out what they might be lol....

[footballfreak]

Just now, scullion44 said:

What are the green players? Just woke up and can't figure out what they might be lol....

I keep meaning to include a legend.

Bright red player = suspended

Bright yellow player = on a yellow

Green player = previously served a suspension but not currently on a yellow. I colour them green so I don’t need to bother clearing them.

Bright red card = red card suspension ongoing

faded red card = red card previously served

bright yellow card = active yellow

faded yellow card = suspension already served for those cards

[Yoginess]

2 minutes ago, footballfreak said:

I keep meaning to include a legend.

[scullion44]

What's the update on Piette?

[Yoginess]

His ankle definitely looked swollen when walking off the pitch 

[MM3/MM2/MM]

I think the most impactful game of the Sunday games will be Panama/Jamaica.    Jamaica has  to make up 7 points in 5 games which is very difficult, so a loss or tie makes it impossible for them, they should be very motivated.  A Jamaica win or tie makes it very difficult for Panama to pass us, coupled with a Canada win over the USA would make it impossible. 

[rydermike]

Perfect case scenario for rest of window:

Canada beats both USA and El Salvador

Panama loses to both Jamaica and Mexico

Costa Rica loses at least one against Mexico or Jamaica (or ties both)

 

This would clinch us Qatar and the final window would be meaningless for us (qualification-wise). Obviously it would be important for chemistry, trying out new things, etc

Edited January 28, 2022 by rydermike

[scullion44]

Need some good Eustaquio news today..If he doesn't fly to Canada at least today there's no way we see him sunday.

[Sal333]

11 minutes ago, rydermike said:

Perfect case scenario for rest of window:

Canada beats both USA and El Salvador

Panama loses to both Jamaica and Mexico

Costa Rica loses at least one against Mexico or Jamaica (or ties both)

 

This would clinch us Qatar and the final window would be meaningless for us (qualification-wise). Obviously it would be important for chemistry, trying out new things, etc

Actually perfect would be Panama & Costa Rica drawing with Mexico.

[rydermike]

2 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

Actually perfect would be Panama & Costa Rica drawing with Mexico.

Not really if you're looking at what guarantees qualification. Top 3 is all that matters in that. If Costa Rica draws with Mexico and then beats Jamaica, we're not officially qualified. These are the outcomes to guarantee we have qualification guaranteed 100% on February 2. 1st place is nice, but meaningless in the grand scheme of things, doesn't give us a better WC draw or anything. So Mexico victories are better for us in terms of guaranteeing qualification.

[Approve My Account Pls]

15 minutes ago, scullion44 said:

Need some good Eustaquio news today..If he doesn't fly to Canada at least today there's no way we see him sunday.

I kinda brushed this off because I'm not getting my hopes up until we see something concrete, but some twitter account had this up

 

[rydermike]

Magic Numbers to finish above each team (points we earn + points they fail to earn)

USA - 15 points

Mexico - 14 Points

PANAMA - 11 Points  < Guarantees QATAR

COSTA RICA - 9 Points < Guarantees Intercontinental playoff

Jamaica - 4 Points

El Salvador - 3 points

Honduras - CLINCHED

 

Example:

If Canada beats USA, that deducts 3 points from all teams and deducts 6 points from USA (+3 points earned + 3 points lost for them = 6)

If Canada ties USA, that deducts 1 point from all teams and deducts 3 points from USA (1 point earned + 2 points lost for them  = 3) 

Edited January 28, 2022 by rydermike

[king1010]

14 minutes ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

I kinda brushed this off because I'm not getting my hopes up until we see something concrete, but some twitter account had this up

 

seems pretty specific to be made up

[jonovision]

16 minutes ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

I kinda brushed this off because I'm not getting my hopes up until we see something concrete, but some twitter account had this up

 

Are there no direct flights from Portugal to Toronto?

[Kent]

20 minutes ago, rydermike said:

Magic Numbers to finish above each team (points we earn + points they fail to earn)

USA - 15 points

Mexico - 14 Points

Panama - 11 Points

Costa Rica - 9 Points

Jamaica - 4 Points

El Salvador - 3 points

Honduras - CLINCHED

I was just going to mention that I realized that although we didn't mathematically eliminate Honduras last night (like they did to us the last 2 cycles), we did clinch finishing ahead of them!

[narduch]

11 minutes ago, jonovision said:

Are there no direct flights from Portugal to Toronto?

There is a direct flight from Lisbon that lands in Toronto at 2:15pm ET tomorrow.

Porto is a 3 hour drive to Lisbon.

 

Edited January 28, 2022 by narduch

[frattinator]

1 minute ago, narduch said:

There is a direct flight from Lisbon that lands in Toronto at 2:15pm ET tomorrow.

Porto is a 3 hour drive to Lisbon.

 

Unless Davies convinced Drake to lend his plane to CSA so that Eustaquio could fly charter 😂

[Sal333]

42 minutes ago, rydermike said:

Not really if you're looking at what guarantees qualification. Top 3 is all that matters in that. If Costa Rica draws with Mexico and then beats Jamaica, we're not officially qualified. These are the outcomes to guarantee we have qualification guaranteed 100% on February 2. 1st place is nice, but meaningless in the grand scheme of things, doesn't give us a better WC draw or anything. So Mexico victories are better for us in terms of guaranteeing qualification.

Jeeze, man, have you been looking at this team? You're worried about qualifying? I don't share your concern. I'm worried about finishing at the top!

[jonovision]

If we find at least another 3 points in this window I won't be sweating the final window too much.

[rydermike]

13 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

Jeeze, man, have you been looking at this team? You're worried about qualifying? I don't share your concern. I'm worried about finishing at the top!

I never said I was worried about qualifying. Don't put words in my mouth. If I was worried about qualifying I wouldn't think we'd be capable of getting 6 in the next two games, yet that's exactly what I said.

I put out the math. And guaranteeing qualification now would be advantageous because then we could bring in the fringe players next window to test them out instead of having to bring a full A team. I'd love to see guys like Mitrovic, Shaff, Millar, Paton, Corbeanu, Ugbo, Akinola (if healthy) etc get extended minutes next window in a low pressure for us high pressure for opponents games, which guaranteeing qualification early does. If all these teams are still in contention, then we can't give those guys the play time because the CSA likes to bring in the bare minimum number of players to save money

Edited January 28, 2022 by rydermike

[theaub]

I want us to win every game the rest of the way (and thus the group) to up our chances of Pot 3 but on a standalone basis I truly could not give less of a shit about winning the group.  

Street party Wednesday night sounds like a good time though.

[narduch]

Team of the match day

 

[Yoginess]

8 hours ago, narduch said:

There is a direct flight from Lisbon that lands in Toronto at 2:15pm ET tomorrow.

Porto is a 3 hour drive to Lisbon.

 

😂 I took that flight a couple months ago because there wasn’t any direct to Vancouver that day. It’s just as long... 

 

anyone find it weird how Wheeler kept refusing to call it COVID? I get the sense that CSA is trying to get special exemption for him and don’t want it to turn into a media frenzy.