WCQ: Third Round - Window 4 (January 27- February 2, 2022)

[narduch]

A lot of people keep saying 24 points will get you in.

But if Panama keeps up their pace and the bottom 4 continue to be fodder 25 or 26 points may be necessary to reach the top 3.

[Approve My Account Pls]

1 minute ago, narduch said:

A lot of people keep saying 24 points will get you in.

But if Panama keeps up their pace and the bottom 4 continue to be fodder 25 or 26 points may be necessary to reach the top 3.

Panama's performance this window is going to be huge in determining that cut-off

[MtlMario]

25 minutes ago, narduch said:

A lot of people keep saying 24 points will get you in.

But if Panama keeps up their pace and the bottom 4 continue to be fodder 25 or 26 points may be necessary to reach the top 3.

Like I said B4 Panama will be lucky to get 2 points this finestra (window) of the Otto(8).

Edited January 27, 2022 by MtlMario

[Ruud]

29 minutes ago, canadasoccer20 said:

My opinion for this window:

BEST CASE: 7 points- We win both our games against inferior El Salvador and Honduras and battle with the US at home and get a draw. 3 wins is always possible with these fellas but without AD and possibly Eustaquio for US game I think a draw is best case plus we do have to go to Central America twice.

WORSE CASE: 4 points-  We lose to the US at home as they have a healthy lineup and get the best of us and we give up an early goal to El Salvador or Honduras and one of them draws us. Similar game to Jamaica possibly. I think this is worse case though, this team is too special to not win one of these games at Central America and believe we have a high floor for this window.

My Opinion: 5 points- We continue with our trend of 5 points in 3 game windows. I think we draw in Honduras or El Salvador just based on past history over there and us giving us an early goal and having to play catch up. I believe the boys battle hard against the US and grab a draw. 

2 Most Important Players for this window: Jonathan David and Tajon Buchannan

These two need to be the creative, talented players that they continue to be in the club level. Without Davies, we need ways to generate offense and Tajon has the speed and talent to do that. David, has become a big name in Europe for simply scoring goals, and we need this to continue this window with teams that defend weak. I expect some low scoring games this window, and 1-0 results are suffice, similar to the Costa Rica.

Should be a fun week!

 

Sure glad worst case is not 0 points this window.  I can stop worrying 😂

[theaub]

34 minutes ago, narduch said:

A lot of people keep saying 24 points will get you in.

But if Panama keeps up their pace and the bottom 4 continue to be fodder 25 or 26 points may be necessary to reach the top 3.

If Panama loses tonight they need a result in either Mexico or the US to get to 24.

I think they lose tonight (I would like to declare this match my lock of the week), and therefore I am maxing them out at 23.

[Free kick]

1 hour ago, narduch said:

A lot of people keep saying 24 points will get you in.

But if Panama keeps up their pace and the bottom 4 continue to be fodder 25 or 26 points may be necessary to reach the top 3.

But they (Pan) have away games in CRC, US and the Azteca remaining.   They need 3 wins and two draws to get to 25.   In just six games.

 

The magic number was originally 21.   And it stood until, for some strange reason HON surrendered three goals at home against Pan in the final 15 mins.  They lost and that meant that 24 pts would be needed for canada.  had that result held up, we would be on 16 and Pan on 11 now. 

 

PS.:  the only number that would start to make me nervous in this window would be 3.  If we get 3pts or less this window,  i would start to be a little concerned.  

Edited January 27, 2022 by Free kick

[theaub]

1 hour ago, Sal333 said:

Why, you ask. Well, because this team for me qualified after the first window. Actually, I'd say after the Gold Cup. I don't see a helpless team squeaking into the WC. I see a power house that will rival the two powers in CONCACA. You are obviously still shell-shocked by past National Teams.

So that's why you're happy with 4 points and I see that result as a let down. I think this team is good enough to make it to the round of 16 at the WC.

Yeah, I know there are gonna be posters who are gonna tell me I'm putting the cart before the horse. They would be right if I didn't drive a car.

These are not mutually exclusive ideas.  The US and Mexico have both had instances of extreme struggles in qualifying for the World Cup over the past two cycles.

Historically there is one team that breaks from the pack around now, and the chances of it being us are as good as anyone else.  But even the powerhouses do not cruise through qualifying in this region.

Edited January 27, 2022 by theaub

[JamboAl]

21 minutes ago, theaub said:

If Panama loses tonight they need a result in either Mexico or the US to get to 24.

I think they lose tonight (I would like to declare this match my lock of the week), and therefore I am maxing them out at 23.

I am liking the Jimmy the Greek Simpsons references.  An emoji is not enough.  

[Kent]

Let's say we can only get 1 win in this window, with the other games being both draws, or both losses. Which game would you most like to win?

Is it Honduras to knock out our demons? Or is it USA because that is actually the most beneficial to our World Cup chances since they are a competitor, and Honduras and El Salvador WILL finish below us. My vote is a win against USA for what it does for our qualification chances, and of course the delicious tears. It certainly would be sweet to beat Honduras though. Maybe I take an 8-1 win over Honduras rather than a win against USA of any score line.

[AvroArrow]

6 minutes ago, Kent said:

Let's say we can only get 1 win in this window, with the other games being both draws, or both losses. Which game would you most like to win?

Is it Honduras to knock out our demons? Or is it USA because that is actually the most beneficial to our World Cup chances since they are a competitor, and Honduras and El Salvador WILL finish below us. My vote is a win against USA for what it does for our qualification chances, and of course the delicious tears. It certainly would be sweet to beat Honduras though. Maybe I take an 8-1 win over Honduras rather than a win against USA of any score line.

I don't see the US or Mexico fizzling out.  Our goal should be to stay far enough ahead of Panama so that our last game away to them is meaningless because we already qualified.  I don't really care how it plays out, but if we walk away with 5 points from this window, I am happy.

[theaub]

Another good paywall article

https://theathletic.com/3095946/2022/01/27/the-tactical-factors-behind-canadas-rise-to-the-concacaf-elite-in-the-octagonal/

[Alex]

26 minutes ago, Kent said:

Let's say we can only get 1 win in this window, with the other games being both draws, or both losses. Which game would you most like to win?

Is it Honduras to knock out our demons? Or is it USA because that is actually the most beneficial to our World Cup chances since they are a competitor, and Honduras and El Salvador WILL finish below us. My vote is a win against USA for what it does for our qualification chances, and of course the delicious tears. It certainly would be sweet to beat Honduras though. Maybe I take an 8-1 win over Honduras rather than a win against USA of any score line.

Beat Honduras 100%

[Sal333]

6 minutes ago, theaub said:

Another good paywall article

https://theathletic.com/3095946/2022/01/27/the-tactical-factors-behind-canadas-rise-to-the-concacaf-elite-in-the-octagonal/

You must work in the sales department for the athletic. Why post a link to an article behind a paywall? Subscribers already know about it and non-subscribers can't read it.

[theaub]

9 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

You must work in the sales department for the athletic. Why post a link to an article behind a paywall? Subscribers already know about it and non-subscribers can't read it.

Are you aware of how the internet works?

[Kent]

6 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

You must work in the sales department for the athletic. Why post a link to an article behind a paywall? Subscribers already know about it and non-subscribers can't read it.

Because subscribers might have missed it. He stated it was behind a paywall, so if you have no interest in paying for it, you can skip over it without even clicking the link (like I did). There are much less useful things posted in this forum every day than a link to a relevant article that not 100% of people can/will read. Heck, people send links to instagram posts/stories that I can't see since I don't have an account, but that doesn't mean it shouldn't be shared even though people on instagram could potentially find the same content.

[sstackho]

16 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

You must work in the sales department for the athletic. Why post a link to an article behind a paywall? Subscribers already know about it and non-subscribers can't read it.

I am a subscriber and I did not know about it. 

[Bison44]

Or even worse is the link to a story about a rumor, then 2 posts later another link to the twitter story about the rumor, then a link to the response to the first twitter post about the rumor.  Thats all over the board.  

[Joe MacCarthy]

1 minute ago, sstackho said:

I am a subscriber and I did not know about it. 

I get the man's point though.  It's like when people post tweets and links to articles in Spanish that I then have to go and get translated.  I try to have the courtesy of when I post the reader doesn't have to do anything, it's all right here for them.  I'll also apply that historically, so that the history is recorded here and not on a dead link lost forever and open to revisionism.

[Joe MacCarthy]

14 minutes ago, theaub said:

Are you aware of how the internet works?

Not sure what you mean there.

[Joe MacCarthy]

 

[Ivan]

19 minutes ago, sstackho said:

I am a subscriber and I did not know about it. 

Same here.  Glad it was posted.  It was a good article except for underselling Estaquio (as one of the comments noted).

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

16 minutes ago, Joe MacCarthy said:

it's like when people post tweets and links to articles in Spanish that I then have to go and get translated. 

Guilty.

My Spanish reading comprehension is good enough to understand what they are saying and good enough to know how much the articles get butchered by Google Translate. My Spanish comprehension is also not good enough to actually give it a proper translation.

The most important thing for me is to provide a source because that is what I appreciate most when other people post info. A lot of things get thrown around on the forum and I always want to know where people are getting their info from.

[Joe MacCarthy]

I can usually surmise what a tweet is about but I have to translate articles. Actually, I've seen a big improvement in Google Translate over the years.  Maybe some posters should also remember that even if Spanish is more popular in southern Ontario that much of the rest of the country's second language is French (don't get me going with Mandarin)

I have been watching episodes of Mayday lately and hearing some of the communications it got me to thinking about Esperanto and why it didn't catch on.  I've had kind of a rethink about it and think maybe it would still be a good idea.  I read somewhere you could pick up the rudiments fairly quickly but it didn't look too easy to me.

Edited January 27, 2022 by Joe MacCarthy

[El Hombre]

6 minutes ago, Joe MacCarthy said:

I can usually surmise what a tweet is about but I have to translate articles.

If you're using Chrome as a browser, right click and select "Translate to English."

[Kadenge]

Given the results to date, the expectation should be a min of 6 points. We may not get it but that's what we should expect based on how this team has performed:

Wnd 1: 5 pts home draw v Hon, away draw v US, home win v ES

Wnd 2: 5 pts away draw v MX, away draw v Jam, Home win v Pan

Wnd 3: 6 pts Home win v CR, home win v MX

Wnd 4: ? pts  Away v Hon, home v USA, away v ES

At the start of the Octo  most of us would say that  we have had 1 underperformance (home tie v Hon), 2 huge unexpected ties (away to MX  and USA) and I massive home win v MX. We are 3 points ahead of what we would have expected at this stage. Did we and are we underestimating this team?