WCQ: Third Round - Window 4 (January 27- February 2, 2022)

[CanadaFan123]

6 minutes ago, B-Lo said:

I suspect the travel will catch up to the team for the El Salvador game.  Hopefully, El Salvador will have packed it in by the time we visit.  They next play the US and Honduras.  If they lose those games, they won't have a realistic chance at the 4th spot. 

All very exciting!!!

 

We're all in the same boat. The only thing that can save anyone is their depth - and we have a ton, while ES has little. Playing them on the 3rd matchday is a blessing.

[El Hombre]

3 hours ago, CanadaFan123 said:

The next window sets up perfectly for us.

We face an all but eliminated Honduras first - expect a milder atmosphere than years past

We get USA at home in January 

We get El Salvador away in the 3rd match by this stage I expect they're all but eliminated and we'll be facing an exhausted squad, or B lineup, with little crowd enthusiasm.

I don't think 7-9 points is unobtainable but even 4-5 and we're in good shape.

In addition to that, Panama has a tough window.  Their "easiest" game is the first and that's Costa Rica away.  Hopefully Costa Rica will be up for it.  Then they have a streaking Jamaica at home and their toughest match at the end away to Mexico.

I'd really like to see more separation between 3rd and 4th at the end of this window.

[Kadenge]

Do or die games for CR and Jamaica v Panama if they want a shot at 4th. They know they have to win those games v Panama. 

[Cblake]

[footballfreak]

4 hours ago, CanadaFan123 said:

The next window sets up perfectly for us.

We face an all but eliminated Honduras first - expect a milder atmosphere than years past

We get USA at home in January 

We get El Salvador away in the 3rd match by this stage I expect they're all but eliminated and we'll be facing an exhausted squad, or B lineup, with little crowd enthusiasm.

I don't think 7-9 points is unobtainable but even 4-5 and we're in good shape.

Success will be largely contingent on matching Panama’s results. A middle of the road expectation for them is probably 4 points. Extending our lead from 2 points to 3 would be huge for our chances. Really think 6 should be the goal, with 5 considered good enough. Hit Honduras with both barrels, try to salvage something from the US game with a partially rotated squad, then hit El Salvador just as hard. It doesn’t jibe with the usual strategy of winning at home, but the schedule dictates somewhat of a departure from dogma.

3 hours ago, mrstepp817 said:

El Salvador has to go to the US in the first game and then they are at Honduras...3 points from those two games probably keeps them at least mathematically alive for a shot at 4th..assuming they drop the game to the US and then if they fall to Honduras they are probably cooked

Disclaimer about how past results don’t dictate future performance... however, Honduras has not lost a competitive game to El Salvador in 7 games dating back to 2014. Honduras has not lost a Gold Cup game or World Cup qualifier to El Salvador since 1993. Honduras will desperately want to win that game at home even if it means nothing to them in terms of qualifying. There is a very good chance El Salvador are 8-13 points back and all but mathematically eliminated before we play them.

 

1 hour ago, PastPros said:

If we call a big squad, any chance we send a couple players directly to Toronto? (e.g. Atiba)

Or is that too risky/silly from a strategic point of view?

Not silly. But I think the whole team travels together. Setting aside personnel choices on match day, it’s beneficial for all of them to get the practice time together. Might make sense for a guy like Henry - long flight in, unlikely to see the field in Honduras, good chance he starts against the US.

 

33 minutes ago, Cblake said:

East is the right call, but it still hurts for those of us in Vancouver. Hopefully we get a preparation friendly or Nations League game if we qualify.

[theaub]

25 minutes ago, footballfreak said:

Success will be largely contingent on matching Panama’s results. A middle of the road expectation for them is probably 4 points. Extending our lead from 2 points to 3 would be huge for our chances. Really think 6 should be the goal, with 5 considered good enough. Hit Honduras with both barrels, try to salvage something from the US game with a partially rotated squad, then hit El Salvador just as hard. It doesn’t jibe with the usual strategy of winning at home, but the schedule dictates somewhat of a departure from dogma.

Disclaimer about how past results don’t dictate future performance... however, Honduras has not lost a competitive game to El Salvador in 7 games dating back to 2014. Honduras has not lost a Gold Cup game or World Cup qualifier to El Salvador since 1993. Honduras will desperately want to win that game at home even if it means nothing to them in terms of qualifying. There is a very good chance El Salvador are 8-13 points back and all but mathematically eliminated before we play them.

Not silly. But I think the whole team travels together. Setting aside personnel choices on match day, it’s beneficial for all of them to get the practice time together. Might make sense for a guy like Henry - long flight in, unlikely to see the field in Honduras, good chance he starts against the US.

East is the right call, but it still hurts for those of us in Vancouver. Hopefully we get a preparation friendly or Nations League game if we qualify.

Based on how Berhalter has managed the US so far I expect a heavily rotated squad for our match as they'll be focused on taking six points from their home matches.  If they can do that and beat Panama at home in the last window they'll be on 24 points and pretty much assured a spot in Qatar.  

Would be very surprised if Herdman moves away from his strategy of going for it in every match.  

[dyslexic nam]

I started a thread on this a few weeks back but it is now probably better to have the discussion about the potential player pool here in the new window thread.  

With the MLS guys (and others) either out of season or just back in pre-season, are there guys that should be brought into (or back into) the team on the basis that they are playing in Europe and thus are in game shape.   I think the main guys that will be out of season are Johnston, Miller, Henry, Piette, Laryea, Kaye, Oso, and Cav (prob missing some). That is a few for sure, but not fatal.

- In attack, we seem fine.  Larin, David, Davies, and Ugbo would all be mid-season, and Tajon should be training and playing with Brugge as of January 1st.  Plus we have Millar and Corbeanu waiting to grab spots when the opportunity presents itself.  In theory, a guy like Jebbison could even get called.   Seems like plenty of depth and options.

- In defence, we have a couple of issues.  Johnston, Miller and Henry (I think) will all be out of season and that is a pretty big core of defenders.  That leaves Vitoria in the middle, with Adekugbe  and Kennedy (assuming he is fully healthy) on the left.   Would Kennedy be able to pair with Vitoria in the middle of a back 4?   A guy like Halbouni would be in game shape and can play in the middle but you can’t avoid the fact that he currently plays for the B squad of a 2nd division team (albeit a very famous one).  Cornelius would also still be in midseason form and could be in the conversation.   It seems like RB is the main issue - but if I had to bet on a couple of MLS guys being able to maintain excellent fitness in the off season, it would probably be Johnston and Laryea.  So maybe not too bad overall.

- Defensive midfield seems fairly good.  Eustaquio is always there and Atiba provides excellent coverage.  Piette would be out of season, and as much as I love the guy, I don’t have a lot of faith that he would show up in January in WCQ-game shape.  That isn’t really a lot of depth there - we would be one injury away from being completely reliant on one guy.

- In the centre of the park on the attacking side, both Oso and Kaye have logged major minutes so far in this process but will be well out of season. Arfield is a clear example of a guy who will be in mid season shape and could come back in to the team - assuming that door hasn’t actually been shut and locked (whether from the inside or outside) for months now. Hoilett could also be back and healthy - which would be a big help.  Wotherspoon is also available and in season.  On a more “out there” note, this is where a guy like Flores could theoretically get a sub appearance - or even Jebbison if he was played in this position.   And Ferdi would obviously be a call-up most would welcome to strengthen this area. 

Bottom line is that losing the MLS guys definitely does impact the core of our team.  We will mainly feel it on the defensive side of things and in central midfield.   But it seems like we should have the depth to handle it without taking a big hit in quality   For me, the bigger worry is about team chemistry.   

[dyslexic nam]

30 minutes ago, theaub said:

Based on how Berhalter has managed the US so far I expect a heavily rotated squad for our match as they'll be focused on taking six points from their home matches.  If they can do that and beat Panama at home in the last window they'll be on 24 points and pretty much assured a spot in Qatar.  

Would be very surprised if Herdman moves away from his strategy of going for it in every match.  

The idea of facing a US “B+” team is a bit exciting.  Getting 8 points from our 4 games against the traditional 2 CONCACAF powerhouses would be one helluva statement.  

[footballfreak]

17 minutes ago, theaub said:

Based on how Berhalter has managed the US so far I expect a heavily rotated squad for our match as they'll be focused on taking six points from their home matches.  If they can do that and beat Panama at home in the last window they'll be on 24 points and pretty much assured a spot in Qatar.  

Would be very surprised if Herdman moves away from his strategy of going for it in every match.  

Going for it and squad rotation are not mutually exclusive. A tired starter is not always an upgrade over a fresh understudy. If we are healthy in January, we will have a LOT of quality understudies.

We started a heavily rotated squad in Jamaica while heavily depleted and might have pulled it off. Part of that was suspensions, but a number of those were load management. Miller sat out, Eustaquio came on in the 69th. David likely would have sat if we had another striker that window.

I’m not suggesting a B side, but I do expect 2-3 guys suspended (we have 4/5 starters on yellows) and 2-3 guys to sit, adding up to 4-5 fresh starters against the US. 

—-

Ex: Larin starts against Honduras and El Salvador. His aerial ability suits bumpy Central American fields. David starts game 2 against the US.

Ex 2: The centre backs probably rotate. We’ve seen how Herdman likes to maintain pairings. Pair 1: Miller, Vitoria, Pair 2: Kennedy (Cornelius), Henry. Kennedy and Henry already started the last US game together. Henry was the best defender on the field that day. Would not be surprised in the least to see a repeat. 

 

[footballfreak]

25 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

I started a thread on this a few weeks back but it is now probably better to have the discussion about the potential player pool here in the new window thread.  

With the MLS guys (and others) either out of season or just back in pre-season, are there guys that should be brought into (or back into) the team on the basis that they are playing in Europe and thus are in game shape.   I think the main guys that will be out of season are Johnston, Miller, Henry, Piette, Laryea, Kaye, Oso, and Cav (prob missing some). That is a few for sure, but not fatal.

- In attack, we seem fine.  Larin, David, Davies, and Ugbo would all be mid-season, and Tajon should be training and playing with Brugge as of January 1st.  Plus we have Millar and Corbeanu waiting to grab spots when the opportunity presents itself.  In theory, a guy like Jebbison could even get called.   Seems like plenty of depth and options.

- In defence, we have a couple of issues.  Johnston, Miller and Henry (I think) will all be out of season and that is a pretty big core of defenders.  That leaves Vitoria in the middle, with Adekugbe  and Kennedy (assuming he is fully healthy) on the left.   Would Kennedy be able to pair with Vitoria in the middle of a back 4?   A guy like Halbouni would be in game shape and can play in the middle but you can’t avoid the fact that he currently plays for the B squad of a 2nd division team (albeit a very famous one).  Cornelius would also still be in midseason form and could be in the conversation.   It seems like RB is the main issue - but if I had to bet on a couple of MLS guys being able to maintain excellent fitness in the off season, it would probably be Johnston and Laryea.  So maybe not too bad overall.

- Defensive midfield seems fairly good.  Eustaquio is always there and Atiba provides excellent coverage.  Piette would be out of season, and as much as I love the guy, I don’t have a lot of faith that he would show up in January in WCQ-game shape.  That isn’t really a lot of depth there - we would be one injury away from being completely reliant on one guy.

- In the centre of the park on the attacking side, both Oso and Kaye have logged major minutes so far in this process but will be well out of season. Arfield is a clear example of a guy who will be in mid season shape and could come back in to the team - assuming that door hasn’t actually been shut and locked (whether from the inside or outside) for months now. Hoilett could also be back and healthy - which would be a big help.  Wotherspoon is also available and in season.  On a more “out there” note, this is where a guy like Flores could theoretically get a sub appearance - or even Jebbison if he was played in this position.   And Ferdi would obviously be a call-up most would welcome to strengthen this area. 

Bottom line is that losing the MLS guys definitely does impact the core of our team.  We will mainly feel it on the defensive side of things and in central midfield.   But it seems like we should have the depth to handle it without taking a big hit in quality   For me, the bigger worry is about team chemistry.   

Re Kennedy, I see no reason why he couldn’t pair with Vitoria given he’s one of the fastest defenders in Bundesliga 2. They played together in both Haiti qualifiers. Pretty sure that was the original plan. Herdman has been very reluctant to break up that Miller/Vitoria pairing since then though - with good reason.

Potential drawbacks: Miller and Vitoria are rolling. Might want to just go with the flow unless Miller is demonstrably behind Kennedy in camp. If you combine Kennedy and Vitoria, you’re left with Miller and Henry. They didn’t look so good together. I don’t think we can expect Kennedy or Vitoria to play all three games, so that second pairing likely gets a start. Kennedy/Henry started the last USA game and did very well together. 

All in all I think it’s more of a camp time decision. All 4 should be called, and I would be comfortable with just about any pairing other than Henry/Vitoria. Fully expect Cornelius to be that 5th man in case of injury. He has a really good game against Jamaica and has experience playing with Henry. He’s definitely getting his reps in with that terrible Greek team of his. Sturing also worth a look.

—

Fully expecting contributions from Hoilett, Millar, Wotherspoon and maybe the likes of Paton (and Arfield 🤞).

Richie Ennin not being in season basically precludes him from the conversation unless he goes on a tear in the next 4 games before the Russian League Winter break. 

—-

The MLS camp will be crucial to see which of the NA guys are ready to go. Maybe a Pascher/Teibert/Okello/Fraser comes in particularly hungry and sharp. Not everyone will be equally sloppy from the break.

[Stryker911]

3 hours ago, Cblake said:

Why would Canada have to submit its location prior to the US? I would assume if anything they would need to give the location of their El Salvador match first.

[footballfreak]

22 minutes ago, Stryker911 said:

Why would Canada have to submit its location prior to the US? I would assume if anything they would need to give the location of their El Salvador match first.

That’s a good point actually. Teams should submit the stadiums simultaneously on a match by match basis. USA should be free to change their match 3 location based on what we pick, but not their preceding match. I wonder how that works in practice.

[TGAA_Star]

But then again I say next window our undefeated Streak will continue 

[red card]

 

[scullion44]

Does this happen where european based players of eliminated teams just don’t want to join up with the team anymore? I’m thinking any european based Honduran player can’t really be arsed to join next window. I know they aren’t technically eliminated but might as well be.

Edited November 19, 2021 by scullion44

[TGAA_Star]

Hopefully they submit the location for the January 30th game by Monday and once they do, everyone can make proper arrangements as far as getting tickets to be at the game

[El Hombre]

12 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

I started a thread on this a few weeks back but it is now probably better to have the discussion about the potential player pool here in the new window thread.  

With the MLS guys (and others) either out of season or just back in pre-season, are there guys that should be brought into (or back into) the team on the basis that they are playing in Europe and thus are in game shape.   I think the main guys that will be out of season are Johnston, Miller, Henry, Piette, Laryea, Kaye, Oso, and Cav (prob missing some). That is a few for sure, but not fatal.

- In attack, we seem fine.  Larin, David, Davies, and Ugbo would all be mid-season, and Tajon should be training and playing with Brugge as of January 1st.  Plus we have Millar and Corbeanu waiting to grab spots when the opportunity presents itself.  In theory, a guy like Jebbison could even get called.   Seems like plenty of depth and options.

- In defence, we have a couple of issues.  Johnston, Miller and Henry (I think) will all be out of season and that is a pretty big core of defenders.  That leaves Vitoria in the middle, with Adekugbe  and Kennedy (assuming he is fully healthy) on the left.   Would Kennedy be able to pair with Vitoria in the middle of a back 4?   A guy like Halbouni would be in game shape and can play in the middle but you can’t avoid the fact that he currently plays for the B squad of a 2nd division team (albeit a very famous one).  Cornelius would also still be in midseason form and could be in the conversation.   It seems like RB is the main issue - but if I had to bet on a couple of MLS guys being able to maintain excellent fitness in the off season, it would probably be Johnston and Laryea.  So maybe not too bad overall.

- Defensive midfield seems fairly good.  Eustaquio is always there and Atiba provides excellent coverage.  Piette would be out of season, and as much as I love the guy, I don’t have a lot of faith that he would show up in January in WCQ-game shape.  That isn’t really a lot of depth there - we would be one injury away from being completely reliant on one guy.

- In the centre of the park on the attacking side, both Oso and Kaye have logged major minutes so far in this process but will be well out of season. Arfield is a clear example of a guy who will be in mid season shape and could come back in to the team - assuming that door hasn’t actually been shut and locked (whether from the inside or outside) for months now. Hoilett could also be back and healthy - which would be a big help.  Wotherspoon is also available and in season.  On a more “out there” note, this is where a guy like Flores could theoretically get a sub appearance - or even Jebbison if he was played in this position.   And Ferdi would obviously be a call-up most would welcome to strengthen this area. 

Bottom line is that losing the MLS guys definitely does impact the core of our team.  We will mainly feel it on the defensive side of things and in central midfield.   But it seems like we should have the depth to handle it without taking a big hit in quality   For me, the bigger worry is about team chemistry.   

Agree with Johnston and Laryea.  They just seem built different and are rarely "out of shape".

I'm also betting that the sports scientists on the CSA staff have offseason plans lined up for guys like Miller and Kaye so that they are in decent shape.  Based on the stories Osorio told a couple weeks back about the staff working on load management with the MLS teams, I'm hoping they put a ton of thought into what they should be doing over the next 60 days.

With Eustaquio on a yellow, Hutch needing load managment and Piette and Kaye being out of season, CDM is a big worry for me.  I think we'll be fine everywhere else.

[Shway]

There is also Harry and Ben Paton in mid season form. Who are both playing lots of minutes

[Approve My Account Pls]

2 hours ago, El Hombre said:

Agree with Johnston and Laryea.  They just seem built different and are rarely "out of shape".

I'm also betting that the sports scientists on the CSA staff have offseason plans lined up for guys like Miller and Kaye so that they are in decent shape.  Based on the stories Osorio told a couple weeks back about the staff working on load management with the MLS teams, I'm hoping they put a ton of thought into what they should be doing over the next 60 days.

With Eustaquio on a yellow, Hutch needing load managment and Piette and Kaye being out of season, CDM is a big worry for me.  I think we'll be fine everywhere else.

I'm also willing to bet that, just based on what we see of their mentalities, the players themselves will want to remain in shape and be involved. Sure maybe they'll be a little out of game shape, but I'm not concerned about them coming it unfit.  Especially after beating Mexico you think any of our guys want to risk having someone else come in and have a chance to take their spot?

[Kadenge]

you can stay physically fit over the 2 months but it's not the same as game shape. The MLS guys need to play games somewhere to keep them  game sharp/timing/touch etc

[CanadaFan123]

If we can set up a camp 10-14 days before our first match we can essentially mirror a tournament group stage for the MLS guys. 

Let's say hypothetically that camp opens up January 13, 2022. Our MLS guys will all be finished their seasons between November 20 and December 11. 

So our players would be off 4-8 weeks and would hopefully keep themselves fit and then jump right back into a training setting for 2 weeks prior to WCQ. 

[narduch]

Personally think we are over-stating this problem.

2 of our opponents will have the same issues. Honduras and El Salvador's leagues will both be off too. And they have tons of domestic players on their rosters.

The US will also have this problem, to a lesser extent.

I"ve been thinking about this and I think we still need to call in our best MLS players. They are too important. Sure sprinkler in a few extra Euro based players from leagues that are still playing.

 

[mrstepp817]

Could Herdman and the CSA do something similar to what the US is doing where they call a December two-week camp for the MLS guys and play a friendly maybe against an island minnow? (US is playing Bosnia and Herzegovina) Then in January you bring the MLS based guys in earlier for an extended camp before the Jan window starts? 

Edited November 19, 2021 by mrstepp817

[CCrTFC]

Someone here a while back had suggested playing friendlies against Guatemala and Nicaragua and I think that would be an excellent idea. 

[mrstepp817]

1 minute ago, CCrTFC said:

Someone here a while back had suggested playing friendlies against Guatemala and Nicaragua and I think that would be an excellent idea. 

Have the extended camp in Florida play a friendly then send em on their way til Jan...it'll at least keep the MLS based guys at least semi match fit, maybe you bring in some CPL guys/young prospects to fill in the gaps etc and get them on the radar