WCQ: Third Round - Window 4 (January 27- February 2, 2022)

[Alex]

On Sunday Honduras plays Colombia in Fort Lauderdale. 

Regarding Honduras, this may be an unpopular opinion but I’d be willing to take the L versus the USA if it means we beat Honduras in Honduras. I have too many memories of these bastards in qualifying going back to 2004 (2 draws), the 2008 losses and the 0-0 draw at BMO in 2012. Forget the other game. We’ve shown we can beat and compete with the USA, Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, El Salvador and Jamaica. Honduras needs to be beaten. 

[DeRo_Is_King]

33 minutes ago, Alex said:

On Sunday Honduras plays Colombia in Fort Lauderdale. 

Regarding Honduras, this may be an unpopular opinion but I’d be willing to take the L versus the USA if it means we beat Honduras in Honduras. I have too many memories of these bastards in qualifying going back to 2004 (2 draws), the 2008 losses and the 0-0 draw at BMO in 2012. Forget the other game. We’ve shown we can beat and compete with the USA, Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, El Salvador and Jamaica. Honduras needs to be beaten. 

I still want to beat the U.S., but I also feel your pain. 

[Unnamed Trialist]

Just forget about the States, sort of.

It doesn't work to speculate this way. We need a win in Honduras. It enables everything: we meet the US still ahead of them, we can draw them and still be ahead of them. It's a great psychological edge we can take into the US game regardless, it heightens the hype coming back home, still leaders. 

I respect that depending on game circumstances you can always accept a draw. In Jamaica that is what happened. Even home to Honduras because we did not yet realise we were way better than that. If we just can't break them down and it's a draw, fine, but we can't accept it during the game IMO, we have to go for that win. 

This is like any league, anywhere, you have to keep winning. Or at least getting the same results as those behind you. It's like throwing body punches, the first one does nothing and neither do the next few, but eventually the rivals crack and you don't. That is how every league was ever won, you held up and they broke.

[Joe MacCarthy]

I am sure Dr Herdman has an "exorcise the demon" and "remove the monkey off the back" program already in progress.

[Club Linesman]

We need the 3 in Honduras for all sorts of reasons.  Monkey off, keep all rivals behind us, fate in our hands,...

Every game is the most important until we get that little mark beside our name indicating that we have qualified for Qatar.  And in the end it doesn’t matter if we drop some points or even games as long as that Mark shows up.

[Kingston]

2 hours ago, Alex said:

Regarding Honduras, this may be an unpopular opinion but I’d be willing to take the L versus the USA if it means we beat Honduras in Honduras. 

Also, we need to keep our eye on the prize, which is qualifying.  We don't qualify more if we finish first instead of third.  So let's focus on the more winnable games which, to me, are Honduras and El Salvador for this window.  Points against the US would be great but we can likely live without them.

[youllneverwalkalone]

I'm mean I don't want to get greedy but a proper Voyageurs revenge canoe cele would be great too.

 

[CanadaFan123]

9 minutes ago, Kingston said:

Also, we need to keep our eye on the prize, which is qualifying.  We don't qualify more if we finish first instead of third.  So let's focus on the more winnable games which, to me, are Honduras and El Salvador for this window.  Points against the US would be great but we can likely live without them.

I don't see Honduras away being more winnable than the USA game in Hamilton. On the balance of probabilities I'd say both games are likely to end in a draw.

Some are thinking emotionally rather than logically though. I hate Honduras as much as the next guy but if you had to pick a game to win you obviously want the win against the States as they are competing with us for a top 3 spot and it would be bigger for our qualification chances. 

[Sal333]

Shouldn't CSA announce the roster today or tomorrow? Or will they wait till next Friday?

[Free kick]

Going into this final round (the octagonal) i was never projecting that we would go undefeated in the four games against both Mexico and the US. Therefore, i can live with whatever result we get against the americans as long we get the points we need to get against everyone else.  So the win versus Honduras is more important in my opinion because we got a draw against them in our home game.

Edited January 13, 2022 by Free kick

[king1010]

2 hours ago, Sal333 said:

Shouldn't CSA announce the roster today or tomorrow? Or will they wait till next Friday?

next week

[Free kick]

The funny thing about what i am hearing from south of the border about the game in Hamilton:   The fan base down there feels that their other two games are the most important to win.  They would be very happy with a draw in Hamilton.  Many of us would be happy with a draw in Hamilton.

if both teams like a draw, than thats what will probably happen.

Edited January 13, 2022 by Free kick

[archer21]

2 minutes ago, Free kick said:

The funny thing about what i am reading from south of the border about the game in Hamilton:   The fan base down there feels that their other two games are the most important to win.  They would be very happy with a draw in Hamilton.  Many of us would be happy with a draw in Hamilton.

if both teams like a draw, than thats what will probably happen.

It’ll be interesting to see if the coaching staffs feel the same as the fans. Maybe both teams put our squads that are defensive and/or not full strength to try to keep players fresh. These are the kind of things that make it very difficult to predict what will happen ahead of time.

[JamboAl]

I would say if both Canada & the US win the first game of the cycle, a draw would be mutually beneficial.  Plus I seem to think Herdman and Berhalter have a decent relationship.

[theaub]

21 minutes ago, Free kick said:

The funny thing about what i am hearing from south of the border about the game in Hamilton:   The fan base down there feels that their other two games are the most important to win.  They would be very happy with a draw in Hamilton.  Many of us would be happy with a draw in Hamilton.

if both teams like a draw, than thats what will probably happen.

If either team stumbles in the first match of the window that will change very quickly.

[Kadenge]

3 hours ago, CanadaFan123 said:

I don't see Honduras away being more winnable than the USA game in Hamilton. On the balance of probabilities I'd say both games are likely to end in a draw.

Some are thinking emotionally rather than logically though. I hate Honduras as much as the next guy but if you had to pick a game to win you obviously want the win against the States as they are competing with us for a top 3 spot and it would be bigger for our qualification chances. 

I think the odds are that Mexico & USA end up in the top 3. They have too much quality depth and their schedules are easier at least for this window.  The real threat for us is who could push for that 3/4 spot.... Panama or Jamaica is my guess and that should be the focus. Honduras & ES are out of it and CR is a  long shot. A win vs Honduras  keeps us ahead of Panama/Jamaica, but most importantly gives the team a  psychological bump... an away win in CA and against H. I'm sure every current CMNT player/coach is aware of the history in SPS (just like us). A win could be as massive as the away tie in Mexico (which I rate higher than the tie vs USA). Win in SPS and we go to Qatar that's my prediction

[CanadaFan123]

7 minutes ago, Kadenge said:

I think the odds are that Mexico & USA end up in the top 3. They have too much quality depth and their schedules are easier at least for this window.  The real threat for us is who could push for that 3/4 spot.... Panama or Jamaica is my guess and that should be the focus. Honduras & ES are out of it and CR is a  long shot. A win vs Honduras  keeps us ahead of Panama/Jamaica, but most importantly gives the team a  psychological bump... an away win in CA and against H. I'm sure every current CMNT player/coach is aware of the history in SPS (just like us). A win could be as massive as the away tie in Mexico (which I rate higher than the tie vs USA). Win in SPS and we go to Qatar that's my prediction

I don't see USA missing either. It is in our interest for them to be fighting for a spot as long as possible though. 

I don't think Costa Rica is any more of a longshot than Jamaica. If they beat Panama at home in the next matchday they're 2 points back of 4th. 

[Unnamed Trialist]

1 hour ago, JamboAl said:

I would say if both Canada & the US win the first game of the cycle, a draw would be mutually beneficial.  Plus I seem to think Herdman and Berhalter have a decent relationship.

Could be, but let's do the math and think it through.

We win in Honduras, the States at home. Panama and Mexico also win. 

Canada at 19, US at 18, two at 17. 

Canada and the US draw in Hamilton, Mexico and Panama win their second matches

Canada, Mexico and Panama at 20

USA at 19

See how I don't think the US would be happy with a draw in Hamilton?

[Approve My Account Pls]

56 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Could be, but let's do the math and think it through.

We win in Honduras, the States at home. Panama and Mexico also win. 

Canada at 19, US at 18, two at 17. 

Canada and the US draw in Hamilton, Mexico and Panama win their second matches

Canada, Mexico and Panama at 20

USA at 19

See how I don't think the US would be happy with a draw in Hamilton?

I think it's safe to assume that a 6 pt window by the US is the bare minimum. 2 games at home and then vs us? I'm sure they're expecting 9 pts even if we have been very strong.

With regard to Mexico and Panama, I'm sure they're expecting big windows as well, but if Costa Rica get Navas and if Jamaica are able to run with a front 3 of Bailey, Antonio, and Gray, there is a reasonable chance that points will be dropped by both competing nations.

Edit just to add: Panama has a very tough window. Away to Costa Rica, home to a much stronger Jamaican side, away to Mexico. We could see a very different battle for 4th after this window.

Edited January 13, 2022 by Approve My Account Pls

[theaub]

Panama is definitely another big factor - if they lose in Costa Rica it gives everyone some breathing room.  That being said it is shortsighted for the US to care about the standings after the second match of this window because Panama travels to Mexico in the third match while the US have an easy home match against Honduras.  Even if the above scenario happens, a US win over Honduras guarantees them a two point cushion on either Panama or Mexico or a one point lead on both teams.

My view on the US is simple - they have three home matches left against Honduras, El Salvador and Panama.  If they win those three they will be on 24 points and basically a lock to qualify with Canada/Mexico/Panama's common games remaining.  I would not be surprised if we see something similar to the October window where they had a trip to Panama sandwiched between two home matches and played a B+ lineup in Panama City.

[Approve My Account Pls]

Okay guys, this is a massive stretch, but I'm bored as fuck so I crafted my personal ideal window: 

I'll start with the "other side" of the Octagonal: I would like to see Mexico win all three (14->23 pts), Panama to lose all three (stay on 14 pts), and Jamaica and Costa Rica to beat Panama, lose to Mexico, and draw each other (takes them to 11 and 13 pts, respectively).

On our side of the bracket, the only thing I want to see is us handle our business. At the very least, beat both Honduras and El Salvador (22 pts). However, in an ideal world if we could obtain at least a draw vs the US that would put us on 23 pts. 

That would generate a table looking like

Mexico and Canada 23

US (who cares exact tally)

Panama 14

CR 13

Jamaica 11

In this situation, we would all but qualify directly as it would require a final window where we would have to lose 3 matches by major goal totals and Panama would have to win 3 matches being world beaters in order to overtake us. We would be able to cap tie everyone and play some absurd lineups just for the fun of it in our final window and still expect to qualify. If we win vs the Americans and take 9 pts in this scenario, we auto-quali anyway

In summary, I can't wait for this window. If the boys take care of business against FH and ES, we're looking pretty 

 

[Unnamed Trialist]

Fine, but the point is: the US is not going to happy to sit at fourth after Hamilton. 

And nothing happening in the third fixture is going to soften that: they won't settle for a draw so Frodo better not give much credence to what Smitty from Dumbo tells him.

[DeRo_Is_King]

25 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Fine, but the point is: the US is not going to happy to sit at fourth after Hamilton. 

And nothing happening in the third fixture is going to soften that: they won't settle for a draw so Frodo better not give much credence to what Smitty from Dumbo tells him.

So, that's where I've seen Gregg before! Knew I recognized him.

[Sal333]

2 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Fine, but the point is: the US is not going to happy to sit at fourth after Hamilton. 

And nothing happening in the third fixture is going to soften that: they won't settle for a draw so Frodo better not give much credence to what Smitty from Dumbo tells him.

Does it really matter if the US will be unhappy about sitting in 4th place?  If both teams have their best players, I think Canada has the better starting rotation. If both teams start losing players to injuries and Covid protocol then Canada is at a disadvantage. After the first 23 men the USA has superior depth that far exceeds ours. I really wouldn't worry about the US game until we start seeing our starting players scratched from this window. And I think Herdman is a better manager than GGG.

Unless a terrible catastrophe hits our team like a plane goes down, I think Canada and the USA are battling for 1st and 2nd. Mexico, Panama and Jamaica - if they can gel - will be fighting for 3rd and 4th. 

Mexico has three difficult games against Jamaica, Panama and the USA.

Panama has 4 difficult games against Jamaica, Mexico, USA and Canada.

Jamaica has three against Mexico, Panama and Canada.

Our three difficult games are against the USA, Jamaica and Panama but two of those are at home.

Also, I wouldn't put too much weight on our history in Central America. We never had a group of players and a coaching staff as we do today. This is a top notch squad.

 

Edited January 13, 2022 by Sal333

[CanadaFan123]

3 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

Does it really matter if the US will be unhappy about sitting in 4th place?  If both teams have their best players, I think Canada has the better starting rotation. If both teams start losing players to injuries and Covid protocol then Canada is at a disadvantage. The USA has superior depth that far exceeds our starting 23. I really wouldn't worry about the US game until we start seeing our starting players scratched from this window. And I think Herdman is a better manager that GGG.

Unless a terrible catastrophe hits our team like a plane goes down, I think Canada and the USA are battling for 1st and 2nd. Mexico, Panama and Jamaica - if they can gel - will be fighting for 3rd and 4th. 

Mexico has three difficult games against Jamaica, Panama and the USA.

Panama has 4 difficult games against Jamaica, Mexico, USA and Canada.

Jamaica has three against Mexico, Panama and Canada.

Our three difficult games are against the USA, Jamaica and Panama but two of those are at home.

Also, I wouldn't put too much weight on our history in Central America. We never had a group of players and a coaching staff as we do today. This is a top notch squad.

 

Respectfully disagree. I'd rank the difficulty of our games left as follows:

1) Panama away

2) Costa Rica away

3) Honduras away

4) USA home

5) El Salvador away

6) Jamaica home