WCQ: Third Round - Window 4 (January 27- February 2, 2022)

[mowe]

1 hour ago, sstackho said:

Below is the approximate impact of the results of Matchday 9 on Canada's chance of finishing in the Top 3. 

The fact that our chances at top 3 drop 11.6% if we lose at Honduras makes me really nervous. I’m going to be a nervous wreck that day.

[apbsmith]

7 hours ago, Hawkguy said:

The biggest problem comes with our depth at wing that posters are going to begin picking favourites (like others have done with Corbeanu and you have done with Millar). In reality, Canada is getting to the point where we can move Davies to wingback/leftback (obviously not this window). Theo has also had well over half a dozen pro games at wingback now as well, which is something we may be able to use going forward.

This is what I really wanted to see Theo improve on, I felt it was a main reason he had limited minutes during the Gold Cup for us.  Theo being able to improve his 2 way game will also play massive dividends to his career. 

I hate comparing players as they each have different and important skill sets that are and will be important for us. At this point, I still rate Millar way above Theo when it comes to defensive assignments, tracking back, 1v1 defending and reading of the game (mainly on a 2 way level), all so critical in WCQ. 

Theo I think should be called even for depth and if he is you would assume he sees somes minutes. I still have Millar and Hoilett as wingers above him, especially if it comes down to help closing out a game.  Theo is a crazy attacking option threat to bring off the bench though if we need an additional goal threat. 

 

Edited January 24, 2022 by apbsmith

[narduch]

41 minutes ago, Vasi said:

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/PaulTenorio/status/1485662071521959937

And it begins!

 

Hopefully it doesn't end up like this:

 

[ADP10]

7 minutes ago, mowe said:

The fact that our chances at top 3 drop 11.6% if we lose at Honduras makes me really nervous. I’m going to be a nervous wreck that day.

Our chance of top 3 drops by almost 20% with a Panama win too

[theaub]

Just to add on (for the full reference), here are the ELO% for our remaining matches 

• Honudras 25-75 Canada
• Canada 54-46 USA
• El Salvador 26-74 Canada
• Costa Rica 40-60 Canada
• Canada 85-15 Jamaica
• Panama 43-57 Canada

Now, ELO doesn't account for draws so this number will be slightly inflated, but the model is estimating that we will get 8 points in Central America.  I think most of us would agree that is very optimistic.

So my tl;dr here - the ELO is still the best model that exists with available information, and by any math (before you get on me for jinxing) we are still favourites to qualify, but its likely a bit too optimistic about us.

[sstackho]

FWIW, here is what the model simulates for the Home / Draw / Away probabilities for Thursday.

Whereas the betting line implied odds are more like 26% / 29% / 45%. 

So, yes, the Elo model is too optimistic.  It's the Gareth Wheeler of models. 

Edited January 24, 2022 by sstackho

[Kent]

1 hour ago, sstackho said:

It's interesting that we've reached a turning point.  The odds now slightly improve if Mexico and the US lose.  Whereas in the past, we wanted them to run over everyone else. 

I'm not sure how comfortable I am with that hypothesis. 

I am comfortable with that and have been on that train already. 5th place at the moment is 7 points behind us. That is a massive gap that I think is unlikely to be overtaken. So we have to focus on finishing ahead of 1 of USA, Mexico and Panama. It's not necessarily Panama or nothing. If anything, I was surprised that the model you shared said that a Mexico vs Jamaica draw was better for us than a Jamaica win. Depending on how things shake down in the first games of this window, I might be pretty split on whether I want a draw or a winner in the Mexico vs Panama game.

[baulderdash77]

21 minutes ago, sstackho said:

FWIW, here is what the model simulates for the Home / Draw / Away probabilities for Thursday.

Whereas the betting line implied odds are more like 26% / 29% / 45%. 

So, yes, the Elo model is too optimistic.  It's the Gareth Wheeler of models. 

Elo doesn’t factor in CONCACAF fuc$ery and specific game conditions (like having 2 of our best players being out). The betting lines factor that.  

Edited January 24, 2022 by baulderdash77

[Kingston]

18 minutes ago, baulderdash77 said:

Elo doesn’t factor in CONCACAF fuc$ery and specific game conditions (like having 2 of our best players being out). The betting lines factor that.  

Although the betting lines are also set for the bookies to make money.  So they may be altered to encourage at least some of the money to move in a certain direction.

[Jedi Ram]

 

[narduch]

 

[Shway]

the 24hr agony. Roster reveal today, acquiring a ticket tomorrow.

[Kent]

4 minutes ago, narduch said:

 

I think we'll get the roster in 30-90 days.😆

[Approve My Account Pls]

7 minutes ago, narduch said:

 

At this point it would be incredible to just post no lineup until kickoff and not put names on any uniform

[toontownman]

Hold up is because they want to test Eustaquio one more time.. Just in case. 

[Approve My Account Pls]

2 minutes ago, toontownman said:

Hold up is because they want to test Eustaquio one more time.. Just in case. 

I'd be surprised if he wasn't on the list regardless. We've had multiple injured players named before, there's no harm naming him if we can somehow get him in for at least one match

[Vasi]

Man...ill give them this. They have made my Monday very entertaining!

[El Hombre]

14 minutes ago, narduch said:

 

It's like when you're sitting at the gate waiting to board your flight and they say there is a 15 minute delay when they know full well that the pilot is passed out in a bar in Thunder Bay.  After 15 minutes, they'll say 15 more minutes and on and on...  

[JamboAl]

Just now, El Hombre said:

It's like when you're sitting at the gate waiting to board your flight and they say there is a 15 minute delay when they know full well that the pilot is passed out in a bar in Thunder Bay.  After 15 minutes, they'll say 15 more minutes and on and on...  

Replace pilot with El Hombre and Thunder Bay with Mexican prison.  That would be a story.

[EJsens1]

1 minute ago, El Hombre said:

It's like when you're sitting at the gate waiting to board your flight and they say there is a 15 minute delay when they know full well that the pilot is passed out in a bar in Thunder Bay.  After 15 minutes, they'll say 15 more minutes and on and on...  

Unless you’re at the Newark airport, where your flight might board in 15 minutes or 2 hours, before being rerouted to LaGuardia 

[footballfreak]

Can anyone speak to how well Tajon did playing centrally the other day? I saw the assist, and if he can play there it would certainly solve some congestion issues on the wings.

Still want him on high on the right against El Salvador though. Larin (other Larin) is a red card waiting to happen in that matchup.

[narduch]

Hmmm

 

[MM3/MM2/MM]

2 minutes ago, narduch said:

Hmmm

 

Eustaquio confirmed😎

Edited January 24, 2022 by MM3/MM2/MM

[sloth8]

1 minute ago, narduch said:

Hmmm

 

I hope this is for Eustaquio and not recruiting someone from Unattached FC!

[CanadaFan123]

1 minute ago, narduch said:

Hmmm

 

Macnaughton?