WCQ: Canada vs Mexico - Tuesday, Nov 16, 9pm EST / 6pm Pacific - Edmonton

[Shway]

3 minutes ago, jonovision said:

Not diminishing anything, and they can only play the opponents put in front of them. Give them Germany's schedule and I don't think they score 53 goals in 2021 (and counting, hopefully). But their scoring record against better opponents (GC and latter WCQ, even Haiti) shows that it is clearly no fluke.

Germany played North Macedonia 2x , L 1 and W 1 by 4 goals.

- played Latvia (136) and W 7-1
- played Leichtenstine (190)  2x for a total of 10-1 
- played Armenia (89) 2x for another total of 10-1

I hear what your saying, but your still diminishing the effort by saying but…but Germany played worst teams than Cayman Islands, and better teams than Mexico and USA…but are still ranked wayy higher than Canada.

I’m sure if there is an algorithm to determine your ranking vs who you played and goals given points weighted by opponent, Canada would still top this list. 

No buts, just admiration and praise. 

[Unnamed Trialist]

I frankly find the weather forecasts worrisome. Though I'm a left coaster I lived in Montreal and understand perfectly well the difference between 12 below and 5 below, which I find substantial. At a certain point it is uncomfortable for everyone, and that is a factor in how your mind works, how your body reacts and how you might play. 

Since we demonstrated we can handle Mexico in good weather on grass, although not with possession, tomorrow's weather does not have to benefit us, necessarily. If we were a more vulgar team I would say it would, but we aren't. 

In more extreme cold it is hard to knock the ball around relaxedly, keeping possession, building up patiently. In general, patience is harder. You might tend to be expedient, looking for quick solutions. That means longer balls, which I will expect from both sides, but then you have the problem of controlling them. You are in a situation where you hope your Jiménez or Ugbo poach one, on a slight defensive miscue, and you can get a goal. And with a goal sit back and absorb a team that cannot build effectively because conditions do not allow it. 

The ref is also a serious concern. There are two theories, we've seen them both. Let play or call everything. Sometimes in harsh weather, like a downpour, the ref will say keep playing. Just keep going. Because players slip into rivals and footing is poor, you either call everything, which will mean 25 fouls each, or let things go. Same with penalties: easy to commit them defending in the box, as you are not in control. The ref could easily decide to decide the game and be expedient himself. And we all know, push come to shove, how Concacaf reffing goes when that happens. Apart from the feeling the guy might decide to punish us for making him work in such a mess. 

I've insisted a lot on how we start (which is not well), but tomorrow it is critical. We need pace, focus and if we can get a goal Mexico will suffer. But vice versa. They'd love to nab one and sit back. Trying to break through a low block in the cold and flurries a goal down will be tough as hell. 

Then there are keepers, and keeper errors. Handling is tough, so you have to shoot. Frankly, Ochoa has pretty sure hands. Borjan has been known to want to let a ball hit his mitts and bounce, then grab it. I don't mind that, if the block is clean and no rival is near. In any case, the other day we were up against a sub keeper and we did not test him, then lo and behold: he failed a test and we scored. But tomorrow, given the weather, get your long shot on goal, low and with a bounce, and get to that damn rebound.

I mentioned Ugbo: the other day he played with Davies off, denying what Herdman said he'd called him in for, a guy who can lead the line and push up high. If Davies reaches an endline, or Tajon, we need that guy looking for the ball in close, near post, in the face of the keeper. David tends to hold back near the penalty circle for the ball turned back, fine. But I wonder if this would not be a good game for Ike to play with Davies to look for that kind of goal.

Edited November 15, 2021 by Unnamed Trialist

[Stryker911]

Pretty much the same lineup as we saw in Mexico. Only exception is Borjan back in net and Adekugbe at LB. I love everything about Laryea, but he is way better going forward to break a team down then he is defensively. Hard not to go with Adekugbe, who was the best player on the pitch Friday.

We have a rediculous amount of options. Need another guy in the middle of the park.. Hutch, Piette, Wotherspoon. Need some quick wings.. Millar, Laryea, Larin. A big body forward..Ugbo, Cavallini. An extra CB..Henry, Cornelius. Even if Borjan goes down, Crepeau has saved a penalty against Mexico and got a result from them in the past few months. Noone should be scared of Mexico.

[dyslexic nam]

My one hope for this game is that our pace can be an effective ugly strategy.  If neither team can knock it around and keep possession, I am hoping our capacity to kick it into space and blow by on the wings will come into play.   There is more than one way to play simplified, direct footy and not everything will need to go over the top. 

[Shway]

I've been advocating for the 3-5-2 since 2019, always said it gets our best guys on the field...and since we've deployed it, we've seen our best moments and games.

-Buchanan for Laryea at some point.
- Cavallini for Larin/or David at some 
- Piette for Kaye at some point.

Edited November 15, 2021 by Shway

[Shway]

2 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

My one hope for this game is that our pace can be an effective ugly strategy.  If neither team can knock it around and keep possession, I am hoping our capacity to kick it into space and blow by on the wings will come into play.   There is more than one way to play simplified, direct footy and not everything will need to go over the top. 

yea not if they play like Costa Rica, and defend in the low block and provide nothing going forward.

[dyslexic nam]

Just now, Shway said:

I've been advocating for the 3-5-2 since 2019, always said it gets our best guys on the field...and since we've deployed it, we've seen our best moments and games.

- Laryea for Buchanan at some point.
- Cavallini for Larin/or David at some 
- Piette for Kaye at some point.

I like this overall but the idea of leaving Tajon on the bench still makes me wonder about it.  

And I know Cav probably would play with passion against Mexico but I wonder if Ugbo will displace him sooner rather than later.  

And Piette for Kaye is very game dependent.  
 

 

[Admiral Murray]

 

[footballfreak]

5 minutes ago, Stryker911 said:

Pretty much the same lineup as we saw in Mexico. Only exception is Borjan back in net and Adekugbe at LB. I love everything about Laryea, but he is way better going forward to break a team down then he is defensively. Hard not to go with Adekugbe, who was the best player on the pitch Friday.

We have a rediculous amount of options. Need another guy in the middle of the park.. Hutch, Piette, Wotherspoon. Need some quick wings.. Millar, Laryea, Larin. A big body forward..Ugbo, Cavallini. An extra CB..Henry, Cornelius. Even if Borjan goes down, Crepeau has saved a penalty against Mexico and got a result from them in the past few months. Noone should be scared of Mexico.

I had Larin starting with David subbing in, but otherwise the same. This seems like a Larin kind of game where he get on the end of a cross or a corner kick. I wouldn’t be disappointed to see either one start though. 

Some questions about Adekube’s ability to catch up to the play when the ball gets over his head. Mexico is much faster and prone to exploit the wings than Costa Rica. Laryea also had a good game against Mexico in Azteca, so I would be tempted to start him. I still have Adekugbe starting, but that left side of defence makes me nervous.

 

 

[Sal333]

12 minutes ago, footballfreak said:

I had Larin starting with David subbing in, but otherwise the same. This seems like a Larin kind of game where he get on the end of a cross or a corner kick. I wouldn’t be disappointed to see either one start though. 

Some questions about Adekube’s ability to catch up to the play when the ball gets over his head. Mexico is much faster and prone to exploit the wings than Costa Rica. Laryea also had a good game against Mexico in Azteca, so I would be tempted to start him. I still have Adekugbe starting, but that left side of defence makes me nervous.

 

 

With all the different lineups and formations I can see the pros and cons so I don't know which way to go. But one thing I am certain about is I don't care what formation they line up with, I want a damn attacking midfielder.

[kacbru]

3 hours ago, frmr said:

Also, they have a tarp on the pitch, so that will prevent any snow/moisture settling in or freezing the pellets and the tarp will be cleared and removed prior to the game.

I hope they've told someone to not bother watering the pitch before the game!

[narduch]

John Herdman laughs at your line up predictions 

Edited November 15, 2021 by narduch

[sstackho]

1 hour ago, nfitz said:

Should get in just before they heavier snow starts, and while it's too wet to blow.

If they had any sense, they'd delay until tomorrow morning, and then - oops - can't play if can't land.

 

With this weather forecast, they should do the safe thing and close Edmonton airport by 6pm MST at the latest. 

[Aird25]

23 minutes ago, footballfreak said:

I had Larin starting with David subbing in, but otherwise the same. This seems like a Larin kind of game where he get on the end of a cross or a corner kick. I wouldn’t be disappointed to see either one start though. 

Some questions about Adekube’s ability to catch up to the play when the ball gets over his head. Mexico is much faster and prone to exploit the wings than Costa Rica. Laryea also had a good game against Mexico in Azteca, so I would be tempted to start him. I still have Adekugbe starting, but that left side of defence makes me nervous.

 

 

I don't know. I think if there's ever a game to put David on top of the goalkeeper it's this one. So many of his goals come from spilled balls or rebounds. He's such a poacher, and this game screams goalkeeper error.

[Ed_S]

1 minute ago, sstackho said:

With this weather forecast, they should do the safe thing and close Edmonton airport by 6pm MST at the latest. 

Jeezus man. Airports in Alberta are prepared for snow and cold weather. Some passengers won't be lol.

 

[footballfreak]

6 minutes ago, narduch said:

John Hardman laughs at your line up predictions 

You will get Piette as a trequarista, and you will like it.

[GasPed]

4 hours ago, Kadenge said:

looks like Mexico is using the same approach as CMNT did in the away game in Haiti. Get in the night before and get the heck out right after the game

 

Tbf, that's exactly what we Calgarians do when we're forced to go to Edmonton too...

[footballfreak]

4 minutes ago, Aird25 said:

I don't know. I think if there's ever a game to put David on top of the goalkeeper it's this one. So many of his goals come from spilled balls or rebounds. He's such a poacher, and this game screams goalkeeper error.

I don’t disagree with anything you’ve said, but Larin has been on fire in Turkey and scored an absolute poachers goal against Trabzonspor last week.

 (Time ~1:10)

I don’t think it’s an either or scenario. Whoever starts will probably get spelled off pretty early to keep the pace and pressure up. Run the starter to death for 60 mins and then sub in the other (situationally dependant obviously).

[Stryker911]

34 minutes ago, footballfreak said:

I had Larin starting with David subbing in, but otherwise the same. This seems like a Larin kind of game where he get on the end of a cross or a corner kick. I wouldn’t be disappointed to see either one start though. 

Some questions about Adekube’s ability to catch up to the play when the ball gets over his head. Mexico is much faster and prone to exploit the wings than Costa Rica. Laryea also had a good game against Mexico in Azteca, so I would be tempted to start him. I still have Adekugbe starting, but that left side of defence makes me nervous.

 

 

I struggle not putting Larin in. We have so many options. He could fit in either David or Buchanan's spot. Good thing Hoilett isnt there to further complicate things. 

Left side of defence makes you nervous? We have 2 great options. A couple years ago Ashton Morgan was our lb.

[VinceA]

I would not mind Ugbo and David starting or Ugbo and Larin. A fixed point up top in a 3-5-2 could be very helpful and unsettle the mexican CB pairing, which I believe won't be an optimal pairing for Tata.

[footballfreak]

1 minute ago, Stryker911 said:

I struggle not putting Larin in. We have so many options. He could fit in either David or Buchanan's spot. Good thing Hoilett isnt there to further complicate things. 

Left side of defence makes you nervous? We have 2 great options. A couple years ago Ashton Morgan was our lb.

Mostly Miller tbh. I think he struggled with the pitch more than any other player on Friday, and it very nearly cost us right at the end. I just like having Laryea’s speed there to cover that. To his credit, I don’t remember Adekugbe being a liability against the US or Jamaica in his other starts either, so maybe my nervousness is unfounded. I was going to say he provides some physicality/aerial ability over Laryea, but apparently they’re both 5’8” which just seems bonkers to me. Could have sworn Adekugbe was closer to 5’11” for some reason.

[GasPed]

1 hour ago, Shway said:

Germany played North Macedonia 2x , L 1 and W 1 by 4 goals.

- played Latvia (136) and W 7-1
- played Leichtenstine (190)  2x for a total of 10-1 
- played Armenia (89) 2x for another total of 10-1

I hear what your saying, but your still diminishing the effort by saying but…but Germany played worst teams than Cayman Islands, and better teams than Mexico and USA…but are still ranked wayy higher than Canada.

I’m sure if there is an algorithm to determine your ranking vs who you played and goals given points weighted by opponent, Canada would still top this list. 

No buts, just admiration and praise. 

I think my only caveat with that chart is that if you look at it, there are a couple teams on it with even more impressive totals - i.e. Japan and Algeria at almost 4 goals per game, while we're just under 3 goals per game.   Digging into though, the same basic principle is at work (i.e. it's all about how bad you beat up your minnows - e.g. Japan beat Myanmar and Mongolia by a combined total of 24 - 0 😮).  So yes, kudos to the team, but quality of opposition is really the key driver in that chart, which is a big reason why we're on it while Mexico and the US are not...  

[Razcal]

 

[apbsmith]

26 minutes ago, sstackho said:

With this weather forecast, they should do the safe thing and close Edmonton airport by 6pm MST at the latest. 

I like it, I also like " sorry the ice defreezer for our charter planes is malfunctioning and we can not unfreeze the plane door. Please remain seated and relax and we will do our best to let you off the plane shortly.... 5 hours later."

[footballfreak]

7 minutes ago, VinceA said:

I would not mind Ugbo and David starting or Ugbo and Larin. A fixed point up top in a 3-5-2 could be very helpful and unsettle the mexican CB pairing, which I believe won't be an optimal pairing for Tata.

I would imagine Dominguez (5’8”) is probably replaced by Araujo (6’1”), who was unavailable against the US due to suspension. There should be plenty of height in their backline against us unfortunately. I do expect Ugbo to feature in this game, but almost certainly as a sub. He hasn’t started for Genk since the beginning of October and we have two inform strikers ahead of him.