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WCQ: Canada vs Mexico - Tuesday, Nov 16, 9pm EST / 6pm Pacific - Edmonton


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1 hour ago, sstackho said:

Remember the ridiculous shirt-pull on Laryea where advantage was played and a yellow card was not given?  Ends up the ref might have gotten it right to not give a card.  

Today I learned of this Law of the Game (courtesy of Gianny0924 on Reddit):

Law 12.3 - Advantage

If the referee plays the advantage for an offence for which a caution/sending-off would have been issued had play been stopped, this caution/sending-off must be issued when the ball is next out of play. However, if the offence was denying the opposing team an obvious goal-scoring opportunity, the player is cautioned for unsporting behaviour; if the offence was interfering with or stopping a promising attack, the player is not cautioned.

 

I get the idea behind this, but you get scenarios where the pull back isn't enough to stop the play, but is enough to effect it. So the party getting advantage played still prefers play on over whistle, but their attack is negatively effected and there is no punishment/remedy.

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3 hours ago, sstackho said:

Remember the ridiculous shirt-pull on Laryea where advantage was played and a yellow card was not given?  Ends up the ref might have gotten it right to not give a card.  

Today I learned of this Law of the Game (courtesy of Gianny0924 on Reddit):

Law 12.3 - Advantage

If the referee plays the advantage for an offence for which a caution/sending-off would have been issued had play been stopped, this caution/sending-off must be issued when the ball is next out of play. However, if the offence was denying the opposing team an obvious goal-scoring opportunity, the player is cautioned for unsporting behaviour; if the offence was interfering with or stopping a promising attack, the player is not cautioned.

 

I disagree with your application of the law here. The referee was negligent not to both pull the play back for the free kick and not to book the Mexican player. Yes, the referee should look to play the advantage, but as soon as Laryea lost the ball, he should have blown for the foul. The result of the foul was that the defender in the centre of the pitch was able to get across and immediately make the play to break up the attack. Therefore, the correct call would have been to blow the whistle as soon as possession was lost in order to bring it back for the foul. Had Laryea beaten the first defender coming across, then lost the ball, either in a subsequent challenge, or through a misplay of the ball, then the above application would be correct.

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2 hours ago, El Diego said:

I get the idea behind this, but you get scenarios where the pull back isn't enough to stop the play, but is enough to effect it. So the party getting advantage played still prefers play on over whistle, but their attack is negatively effected and there is no punishment/remedy.

This is where having been a player helps being a good ref.  One needs to have a clear mind of the difference between obvious goal-scoring opportunity and just a promising attack.  It is tough at times making that distinction.

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2 minutes ago, SthMelbRed said:

I disagree with your application of the law here. The referee was negligent not to both pull the play back for the free kick and not to book the Mexican player. Yes, the referee should look to play the advantage, but as soon as Laryea lost the ball, he should have blown for the foul. The result of the foul was that the defender in the centre of the pitch was able to get across and immediately make the play to break up the attack. Therefore, the correct call would have been to blow the whistle as soon as possession was lost in order to bring it back for the foul. Had Laryea beaten the first defender coming across, then lost the ball, either in a subsequent challenge, or through a misplay of the ball, then the above application would be correct.

In a perfect world you are correct.  However not all fouls are called by referees.  Whether they should be called or not, we could be arguing forever.

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23 minutes ago, The Ref said:

In a perfect world you are correct.  However not all fouls are called by referees.  Whether they should be called or not, we could be arguing forever.

Are you suggesting that whether or not there was a foul on the play was questionable? It happened within clear sight of both the referee and AR. It was just bad refereeing and should be called out as such.

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14 hours ago, sstackho said:

Here's where the simulation model thinks our placement will be, if we reach the number of points in the first column.

image.png.3f85ec4567ccf2fd9531e9341ef50b06.png

 

Thanks for this. Any chance we can get a simulation through Gameday 13 for both Canada and Panama? The only percentages that matter for the next two months is whether Canada is projected to be 4+ points, 3 points, or 2- points ahead of Panama prior to GD 14. At that point, the odds don't matter, only standings, belief and performance. Although I'd rather be 1 pt ahead than 3 pts behind. 🙂

Within the chart above, I'd presume that the odds are around 30% Canada win, 35% draw, 35% Panama win in the final match?

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One of the best things about this game is that it dispelled the notion or myth that was starting or might have started to emerge amongst the wider audience in Canada that this team was a one man show.  This started happening after the Panama game and before the start of this window.   

I put the blame for this exclusively to the emerging interest of mainstream media outlets or pundits, or columnist or editorial  who previously never paid any attention to the game or maybe paid cursory attention, suddenly jumping into the fray.   And the wider audience would likely bought into this notion

Jonathan David didnt play,  And AD was not factor because of Mexico's game plan or the conditions.  And Canada still still beat Mexico.  There were good performer over the past year who got no props what so ever in this period.      Obviously AD deserves all the attention that he getting and more.   He should be the Lou Marsh winner.   But you cant be a good MNT team with just one good player, or two good players.   Just ask George Weah.  

Edited by Free kick
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11 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

What a game.  I am too mentally exhausted to write much, but it was amazing.  

I flew to Edmonton from PEI to watch two home games - and it ended up far exceeding my expectations.  I got to see us beat Mexico at Iceteca in conditions I never imagined, and got to see Atiba set the all time caps record.  I met or reconnected with some amazing V’s and feel like I was part of a truly historic night of footy.  

It’s a good thing I am wearing a mask because I am sitting at the airport with a fucking stupid grin that I just can’t stop.  

Thanks to all who made this happen - @admin@rob.notenboom @JamboAl, and everyone else who contributed to this event (I know I am missing a bunch).  And props to @El Hombre for driving to Calgary in the snow to pick up some stranded V’s.  

And you don’t know her, but special thanks to my wife for solo parenting for the last week to make all of this possible.  
 

Great to reconnect. Can’t wait until the next one. Safe travels. 

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What an epic 5 days.  I looked like a bleary-eyed zombie shuffling through various airports yesterday, but had a smile on my face.

I will echo @dyslexic nam's kudos to @rob.notenboom and @admin (and @JamboAl too, I guess) and the rest of V leadership for the organization.  Truly top class.  It was a great time.  Great to reconnect with @Cheeta, @redhat and @matthew and meet in-person with @dyslexic nam , @theaub, Covey, "Victoria", @CanadianTraveller (I think that was you) and anyone else I might've accosted at 1st RND or the Ice House.

The games were fun too.  Apparently we won?

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12 minutes ago, El Hombre said:

Oh and for everyone complaining about Wheeler's commentary during the Mexico: that might be my fault.

In between taking selfies with him late on Monday night, I told him that all the Voyageurs were 100% on board with everything he does.  Was I wrong?  I thought that's what that poll said?

And what a selfie it was. 

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10 hours ago, CanadianTraveller said:

Thanks for this. Any chance we can get a simulation through Gameday 13 for both Canada and Panama? The only percentages that matter for the next two months is whether Canada is projected to be 4+ points, 3 points, or 2- points ahead of Panama prior to GD 14. At that point, the odds don't matter, only standings, belief and performance. Although I'd rather be 1 pt ahead than 3 pts behind. 🙂

Within the chart above, I'd presume that the odds are around 30% Canada win, 35% draw, 35% Panama win in the final match?

The model currently predicts that there's a 2/3 chance that we go into Panama more than 3 points ahead. 

image.png.df7fba15f7dee2ea526e073bdda949cc.png

But the model also implies that we have a 53% chance of a win in Honduras.  I'm curious to see how the betting lines will compare. 

The implied odds in Panama show 35% Panama win, 27% draw, 38% Canada win. 

Edited by sstackho
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One last thank you for an incredible few days. 

Weather and seeing family for the first time in 3 years because of COVID, meant I did not get to meet people on here like I wanted to. But truly unforgetten moments nonetheless. 

One of the last and most important for me here (captured from video so excuse the quality).  A soccer moment I will remember forever. 1843397578_ThunderclapCanadaMexico.mp4_000040716.thumb.png.865b8309566da6584dd5d278cf35822b.png

 

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16 hours ago, SthMelbRed said:

I disagree with your application of the law here. The referee was negligent not to both pull the play back for the free kick and not to book the Mexican player. Yes, the referee should look to play the advantage, but as soon as Laryea lost the ball, he should have blown for the foul. The result of the foul was that the defender in the centre of the pitch was able to get across and immediately make the play to break up the attack. Therefore, the correct call would have been to blow the whistle as soon as possession was lost in order to bring it back for the foul. Had Laryea beaten the first defender coming across, then lost the ball, either in a subsequent challenge, or through a misplay of the ball, then the above application would be correct.

This makes sense in how the play worked out. Tough for the ref to do this whole analysis in real time, but it is a just result.

We can get into this hypothetical: let's say that despite the pull back, defender comes over but Laryea does get the pass across, leading to a chance. Maybe the chance would have been better had the defender not pulled him back (Laryea may have had more time, space, balance, better angle etc. to play a better ball). Should there be a punishment/remedy in this case? I don't think it makes sense to pull it back for a free kick if he gets the pass across and Canada flubs the shot, but I think a yellow is still fair (though I understand that the law appears to say don't award one). That pull back is so cynical, not a soccer play at all, so I would argue it should just be a yellow every time.

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