WCQ: Canada vs Mexico - Tuesday, Nov 16, 9pm EST / 6pm Pacific - Edmonton

[Treppy2]

I went for another run today from my Airbnb near Commonwealth, mostly on trails along the North Saskatchewan River. Coming from Ottawa, it's a real treat to be able to run on trails in the heart of a city without needing to drive to get to them.

I finished my run with a loop around Commonwealth Stadium to see if anything was happening. There was no Mexican film crew out there today, but I did stop and talk with the security guard stationed at the entrance along 112th Avenue, where it's possible to see the pitch. (BTW, it has started snowing in Edmonton — with lots more to come.) It's hard to tell from the photo, but there was a tarp (or tarps) covering the entire pitch. The security guy told me that Canada was coming to train from 3-5 pm today. He figured the machines on the pitch were clearing the snow so the tarp(s) could be removed just before Canada is set to train. He also said "there's no way" Tuesday's match would be cancelled due to snow — take that for what it's worth, coming from a security guard.

I also noticed WELCOME FIFA DELEGATION electronic messages on the ring between the upper and lower levels. If they're doing a stadium inspection today, they have quite the weather to welcome them. I'm guessing that since the first World Cup in 1930, there haven't been too many stadium inspections that have taken place in the snow.

Also, the crowd filing into the church across from the stadium at 11 am this morning looked substantially different than the crowd I saw at the same location Friday night!

Edited November 14, 2021 by Treppy2

[Kadenge]

In 7 games played, we have won 52 corners (including 10 vs CR) with zero goals. I guess the own goal in the Panama game was a result of a corner, and CR almost scored on their own goal. Vitoria also came close v CR. Once again this is an area of our game that is lacking and in need of major improvement. The delivery is very inconsistent regardless of Davies or Eustaquio and there is a lack of  physical presence in the box. Often Vitoria is out wide and then heads the ball into the box.   Larin helps if he starts. Unfortunately Kamal is not great in the air, so we really only have 1 CB that could be a threat. The conversion rate on corners is generally low..don't know the exact stat, but 0 for 52 sucks

[Bison44]

^^^ Agree 100% Needs work bigtime.  Davies should not be taking corners.  You would think with all this good coaching the guys are getting, we could find one guy who takes corners at his club and work out something eh??  

[Unnamed Trialist]

9 minutes ago, Kadenge said:

In 7 games played, we have won 52 corners (including 10 vs CR) with zero goals. I guess the own goal in the Panama game was a result of a corner, and CR almost scored on their own goal. Vitoria also came close v CR. Once again this is an area of our game that is lacking and in need of major improvement. The delivery is very inconsistent regardless of Davies or Eustaquio and there is a lack of  physical presence in the box. Often Vitoria is out wide and then heads the ball into the box.   Larin helps if he starts. Unfortunately Kamal is not great in the air, so we really only have 1 CB that could be a threat. The conversion rate on corners is generally low..don't know the exact stat, but 0 for 52 sucks

So don't take them long. 

A corner is a sure possession in attack if taken short. There's 10 yards of space. The defenders come out if you play short and back and that offside line means space behind them. You disorganize the opposing defense. You can also choose to leave your CBs back and not expose yourself to a counter. Just mix it up. 

Fact is our our high centres got us a goal the other day. The David goal vs El Salvador was after a high centre. We've had some close ones with Vitoria who deserves a goal IMO. Just mix it up. 

[Gian-Luca]

We scored on a corner against Panama, that it was an own goal doesn’t negate that

 

Edited November 14, 2021 by Gian-Luca

[footballfreak]

43 minutes ago, Kadenge said:

In 7 games played, we have won 52 corners (including 10 vs CR) with zero goals. I guess the own goal in the Panama game was a result of a corner, and CR almost scored on their own goal. Vitoria also came close v CR. Once again this is an area of our game that is lacking and in need of major improvement. The delivery is very inconsistent regardless of Davies or Eustaquio and there is a lack of  physical presence in the box. Often Vitoria is out wide and then heads the ball into the box.   Larin helps if he starts. Unfortunately Kamal is not great in the air, so we really only have 1 CB that could be a threat. The conversion rate on corners is generally low..don't know the exact stat, but 0 for 52 sucks

 

[Jedi Ram]

22 hours ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

I assume these calculations take into account Mexico’s loss to Ecuador and El Salvador's loss to Bolivia (friendlies)?

Oh definitely...was actually applied BEFORE Friday's game...

Mexico lost 3.64 pts  and El Salvador lost 2.76 pts.  Friendlies do not carry much weight as they only carry the factor of 5 compared to World Cup Qualifying of 25.

Edited November 14, 2021 by Jedi Ram

[Sal333]

Even the Yanks are jumping on the Canadian and Herd(s)man bandwagon.

 

 

[narduch]

 

[Lansdude]

These bros are way too annoying

[EJsens1]

1 hour ago, Sal333 said:

Even the Yanks are jumping on the Canadian and Herd(s)man bandwagon.

 

 

“John Herdman could be president of Canada..”

Last 30 seconds roughly 

[footballfreak]

6 hours ago, BearcatSA said:

Adekugbe's very strong performance on Friday night might have the coaching staff wondering if they should stick to a back four for this one or go to a 3-5-2 which would (likely) put the Hatayspor man on the bench.  Versus Mexico, I thought they would add another central mid (Mexico hunter Osorio), have Davies and Laryea at wingback, Larin (or Ugbo?) and David up top, with Vitoria between Miller and Johnson.  Buchanon off the bench gives us a big X factor for this one.  Wotherpoon, Piette, and Hutchinson can reinforce the middle if we are leading or needing to see out a draw.  However, they might keep Adekugbe in the mix with Davies in front of him on the left.  

Barring injuries, I think we see three changes at the most in the starting line up on Tuesday night.

Adekugbe presents an interesting option. Whether it’s him or Laryea, I think we start in a 4-2-3-1 like in Mexico City.

Mexico City

I can honestly see running with this again. Swap Borjan in for Crépeau, potentially Adekugbe for Laryea. Larin might find more joy against Mexico than David did. But overall I would run these guys out again and see if Mexico has an answer. This cast can also swap into a 352/532 easily enough.  

           David/Larin      Buchanan

                         Osorio

               Kaye      Eustaquio

Davies                                        Laryea

             Miller Vitoria Johnston

                        Borjan

[prairiecanuck]

15 minutes ago, footballfreak said:

Adekugbe presents an interesting option. Whether it’s him or Laryea, I think we start in a 4-2-3-1 like in Mexico City.

Mexico City

I can honestly see running with this again. Swap Borjan in for Crépeau, potentially Adekugbe for Laryea. Larin might find more joy against Mexico than David did. But overall I would run these guys out again and see if Mexico has an answer. This cast can also swap into a 352/532 easily enough.  

           David/Larin      Buchanan

                         Osorio

               Kaye      Eustaquio

Davies                                        Laryea

             Miller Vitoria Johnston

                        Borjan

 

[prairiecanuck]

That's my lineup, but I'd start Adekugbe and have Laryea on the bench to come on as an attacking option later in the game. 

[baulderdash77]

7 hours ago, BearcatSA said:

Adekugbe's very strong performance on Friday night might have the coaching staff wondering if they should stick to a back four for this one or go to a 3-5-2 which would (likely) put the Hatayspor man on the bench.  Versus Mexico, I thought they would add another central mid (Mexico hunter Osorio), have Davies and Laryea at wingback, Larin (or Ugbo?) and David up top, with Vitoria between Miller and Johnson.  Buchanon off the bench gives us a big X factor for this one.  Wotherpoon, Piette, and Hutchinson can reinforce the middle if we are leading or needing to see out a draw.  However, they might keep Adekugbe in the mix with Davies in front of him on the left.  

Barring injuries, I think we see three changes at the most in the starting line up on Tuesday night.

A 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 would work as well.  It would get our wingers and full backs on the field as well as have a 3 midfield setup.

[SthMelbRed]

14 minutes ago, prairiecanuck said:

That's my lineup, but I'd start Adekugbe and have Laryea on the bench to come on as an attacking option later in the game. 

If Laryea starts tomorrow against Mexico, he's almost guaranteed to miss out on a trip to Honduras through yellow card accumulation. I'd go with Adekugbe again after his MOTM display on Friday.

[narduch]

Mexico were training in Indianapolis today.

 

[apbsmith]

Watched some highlight packages of US vs Mexico. 

It definitely appears Mexico had the run of play the first half. 

Couple HUGE saves by Steffen for the USA in the 1st half.

[mrstepp817]

5 minutes ago, apbsmith said:

Watched some highlight packages of US vs Mexico. 

It definitely appears Mexico had the run of play the first half. 

Couple HUGE saves by Steffen for the USA in the 1st half.

Mexico had the run of play for the first 30 minutes but it definitely switched after that...Mexico really struggled against the US's pace...and Canada is probably faster...dare I say Mexico switches to a more defensive posture or will their pride not allow them to do that??

 

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1459526090221883409?s=20

Edited November 15, 2021 by mrstepp817

[baulderdash77]

53 minutes ago, footballfreak said:

Adekugbe presents an interesting option. Whether it’s him or Laryea, I think we start in a 4-2-3-1 like in Mexico City.

Mexico City

I can honestly see running with this again. Swap Borjan in for Crépeau, potentially Adekugbe for Laryea. Larin might find more joy against Mexico than David did. But overall I would run these guys out again and see if Mexico has an answer. This cast can also swap into a 352/532 easily enough.  

           David/Larin      Buchanan

                         Osorio

               Kaye      Eustaquio

Davies                                        Laryea

             Miller Vitoria Johnston

                        Borjan

This would be the personal I’d chose but more of a straight 4-3-3 with Eustaquio at DM and Kaye and Osorio at CM 

[footballfreak]

16 minutes ago, mrstepp817 said:

Mexico had the run of play for the first 30 minutes but it definitely switched after that...Mexico really struggled against the US's pace...and Canada is probably faster...dare I say Mexico switches to a more defensive posture or will their pride not allow them to do that??

 

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1459526090221883409?s=20

My understanding is that Tata, much to the consternation of Mexican fans, will make changes to personnel but not the formation. They will almost certainly line up in a 433.

[The Beaver 2.0]

If we've got a crappy pitch AND snow, then set pieces and the ability to score--and defend--with our heads is going to be really important. Tajon is good in the air, as is Larin. Davies and David, not so much. Not sure about Ugbo.  Hope they are practicing long balls over the Mexican backline, corners, and set plays. This might be a dog's breakfast of a match.

[footballfreak]

1 minute ago, The Beaver 2.0 said:

If we've got a crappy pitch AND snow, then set pieces and the ability to score--and defend--with our heads is going to be really important. Tajon is good in the air, as is Larin. Davies and David, not so much. Not sure about Ugbo.  Hope they are practicing long balls over the Mexican backline, corners, and set plays. This might be a dog's breakfast of a match.

I also had Larin pencilled in over David. Tough to justify keeping him on the bench though. Interesting conundrum. Ugbo looks good in the air from what little I’ve seen.

 

[footballfreak]

In the tradition of Jomboy’s stats that exist but do not matter:

Since the Hex began in the 1998 cycle, Mexico’s record in their next game after a loss is 4 wins, 3 losses, 0 draws (1.71 ppg). Their overall record in those hexes is 30-12-18 (1.80 ppg).

Edit: I biffed it. Their record after a loss is actually 6 wins, 3 losses, 0 draws (2.00 ppg).

The unintended consequence of checking my work was a stat that potentially does matter, or is at least a little more interesting.

In those 6 cycles, Mexico’s record in the final game of qualifying is 1 W-2D-3L (0.83 ppg). Luckily for us, their last game this cycle against El Salvador is unlikely to matter.

 

Edited November 15, 2021 by footballfreak

[Razcal]

Honest question,

How was that pitch any worse than BMO which has been chewed to hell by CFL games?

How was it any worse than what Vancouver Whitecaps have been playing on all season?