WCQ: Third Round - Window 3 (November 12-16, 2021)

[Floortom]

9 hours ago, RS said:

 

Cristian Gamboa has also pulled out due to injury. Not sure how big a loss that - don’t think he’s played for CR yet during the octagonal. He’s a part time player for Bochum so must have a decent amount of quality.

[Cheeta]

4 hours ago, Kent said:

For the gambling dunces here, that means if you bet a dollar and win, you win less than a dollar, right?

No, you allways collect your original wager back.  The - or + indicated the percentage of your original bet you will collect (in addition to your original wager) if you win. So in that graphic -128 would mean on a $100 bet you'd get $172.  Your original $100 wager PLUS $100 less 28% because it's a (-), or "under evens"  for a $72 profit.

ComeOn! and some other sites doesn't list that way, they show a simple multiplier so you have to think of your wager differently.  The payout already includes your wager in the payout.  A Canada win pays 1.64 on ComeOn! right now.  You bet $100 you get $164 back if Canada wins for a $64 profit. 

Just different ways of saying the same thing. 

I see bet365 has a Canada win paying -134 currently, so very similar to ComeOn!

    

[ardsa]

2 hours ago, Floortom said:

TBH I think it's a mix of all three

1. He's definitely still hurt

2. he was very poor prior to being injured too though so it's not all the knee issue

3. He's obviously checked out and pissed he's been displaced by a guy like Brian White

4. Tosaint Ricketts is injured. Cav may have been passed by Tos on depth chart!

[EJsens1]

I hope Borjan doesn’t get this worked up for Friday’s match 

[lenny]

10 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

I sort of made that up to get the half degree and half foot contrast in the post. Literary freedom. 

But I was in Vancouver and pitches, in the 70s, were generally a mess.

 

On the North Shore, we played on gravel until we were 12, and were so thrilled to play on grass it could have been terrible and we'd never have noticed.

[king1010]

8 hours ago, Floortom said:

Cristian Gamboa has also pulled out due to injury. Not sure how big a loss that - don’t think he’s played for CR yet during the octagonal. He’s a part time player for Bochum so must have a decent amount of quality.

This is another big loss for them. 

[Unnamed Trialist]

8 hours ago, lenny said:

On the North Shore, we played on gravel until we were 12, and were so thrilled to play on grass it could have been terrible and we'd never have noticed.

My Vancouver elementary and high schools had gravel, but sharp sob bits of granite some monsters had chewed up and spat out and you'd never slide on that stuff. But no one played soccer in my day at school, it was always touch football or road hockey. 

I remember specific waterlogged pitches, but also that at some point they began to improve a few for the rep teams to play on.

Edited November 8, 2021 by Unnamed Trialist

[A_Gagne]

11 hours ago, EJsens1 said:

I hope Borjan doesn’t get this worked up for Friday’s match 

wow that was brutal. I hope that dude gets suspended for a long time.

[weathermanfran]

Weather continues to show temperatures around 0 degrees for gametime on Friday in Edmonton. Could be windy earlier in the day but looks like it'll be calm by the evening. Maybe a slight chance of snow but it would just be a few flurries which wouldn't affect the game.

Mexico game appears to be colder. Maybe -5 that evening at first guess.

Funny enough, if this cycle was held at BMO, their weather looks to be pretty terrible... cold rain and windy this weekend for southern Ontario.

The city is definitely excited for these games... well, at least in my bubble they are. I wore my Canada kit to curling the other day and a couple people commented to me that they were going to one or both of the matches.

Edited November 8, 2021 by weathermanfran

[RS]

23 minutes ago, weathermanfran said:

Funny enough, if this cycle was held at BMO, their weather looks to be pretty terrible... cold rain and windy this weekend for southern Ontario.

Friday's got a high of 11 and low of 5 in Toronto, but you're right that there some rain in the forecast that follows.

25 minutes ago, weathermanfran said:

The city is definitely excited for these games... well, at least in my bubble they are. I wore my Canada kit to curling the other day and a couple people commented to me that they were going to one or both of the matches.

That's awesome. There's still a good chance for both matches to sell out and I think the media blitz over the next few days will get the Costa Rica game over the line (the Mexico game looks to sell out regardless).

[BuzzAndSting]

19 hours ago, Kent said:

For the gambling dunces here, that means if you bet a dollar and win, you win less than a dollar, right?

One way to look at it is, at -128 you have to bet $128 to win $100. At +395 you win $395 on a $100 bet.

[Joe MacCarthy]

40 minutes ago, RS said:

That's awesome. There's still a good chance for both matches to sell out and I think the media blitz over the next few days will get the Costa Rica game over the line (the Mexico game looks to sell out regardless).

Anyone have an update on ticket sales, the last I saw was 40k for both games

[theaub]

20 minutes ago, Joe MacCarthy said:

Anyone have an update on ticket sales, the last I saw was 40k for both games

Mexico looks like about 43K-ish right now - Costa Rica they just added another couple thousand seats on the upper sideline either last night or this AM I assume that one is closer to 40.

[lamptern]

1 hour ago, weathermanfran said:

Weather continues to show temperatures around 0 degrees for gametime on Friday in Edmonton. Could be windy earlier in the day but looks like it'll be calm by the evening. Maybe a slight chance of snow but it would just be a few flurries which wouldn't affect the game.

Mexico game appears to be colder. Maybe -5 that evening at first guess.

Funny enough, if this cycle was held at BMO, their weather looks to be pretty terrible... cold rain and windy this weekend for southern Ontario.

The city is definitely excited for these games... well, at least in my bubble they are. I wore my Canada kit to curling the other day and a couple people commented to me that they were going to one or both of the matches.

Let me bet on this: If Phozie performed well and we won CR game. Mexican game tickets would sold out over the weekend right after.

Edited November 8, 2021 by lamptern

[MauditYvon]

Except the Mexico game is not on the weekend but on Tuesday. When Edmonton and Dreezy are going up on a Tuesday.
 

Edit : Got your message wrong. It's still going up on a Tuesday.

Edited November 8, 2021 by MauditYvon

[king1010]

10 minutes ago, theaub said:

Mexico looks like about 43K-ish right now - Costa Rica they just added another couple thousand seats on the upper sideline either last night or this AM I assume that one is closer to 40.

They added those seats for Costa Rica a few days ago. 

[king1010]

4 hours ago, Joe MacCarthy said:

Anyone have an update on ticket sales, the last I saw was 40k for both games

Saw on twitter that the Costa Rica game was at 42K. If that is the case, then Mexico game is at 45K based on the seating map. 

[apbsmith]

Patiently waiting for the Costa Rica match game thread @Olympique_de_Marseille :). 

On a side note, Canada also opened as high as 1.8-1 on some sites. So the statistical analysis from a gambling perspective has it at a decent chance of a draw. Odds dropping fairly quickly in favor of a Canada win. This is not because of the game script changing, simply the books are seeing more $ come in on Canada. 

 

Edited November 9, 2021 by apbsmith

[CanadianSoccerFan]

 

[red card]

Another dose of Herdman, from the local angle.

Davies: It was like a cheetah, chasing down a gazelle. Herdman also politely tells Edmontonians not to act like being at a Oilers game.

Edmonton TSN Radio

https://www.tsn.ca/radio/edmonton-1260/audio/john-herdman-it-was-like-a-cheetah-chasing-down-a-gazelle-1.1718220

 

 

Edited November 9, 2021 by red card

[king1010]

From Herdmans interview it looks like the team will be staying at the JW Marriott by Rogers place. 

Edited November 9, 2021 by king1010

[narduch]

5 minutes ago, king1010 said:

From Herdmans interview it looks like the team will be staying at the JW Marriott by Rogers place. 

Makes sense as the Oilers are letting the team use their facilities 

[Joe MacCarthy]

 

[footballfreak]

The ELO football ratings seem to think the Costa Rica game represents our second easiest game of the 8 remaining, and Mexico as the most difficult. Obviously, ELO can’t fully account for CONCACAF away days, matchups, etc. Still worth a look.

Based solely on gut intuition, I think the winniability looks more like:

Costa Rica (H) > Jamaica (H) > El Salvador (A) > Honduras (A) > Costa Rica (A) > Panama (A) > USA (H) > Mexico (H).

Could maybe flip USA and Mexico. Tempted to put El Salvador away above Jamaica, but Cuscatlan is still Cuscatlan. Not a lot between Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama away.

Bottom line is anything less than a win against Costa Rica leaves us in a position where we probably need to win more than one road game in Central America.

Easiest path to 21 is still win CRC, win JAM, win USA or Mexico, win 1 away game. Alternatively, win CRC, win JAM, draw USA AND Mexico, win 1 away game.

[narduch]