The Road to Qatar.

[Free kick]

39 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Here are two facts:

1. We haven't lost on the road yet. Actually, we haven't lost period. 

2. Honduras and El Salvador are weaker teams than USA and Mexico. 

I know, it's "Central America", but that doesn't change those 2 facts. 

The odds of us not getting anything on the road next window are extremely small. 

I would add:

3. Honduras and El Salvador are for all intents and purposes eliminated from qualifying.

[trc2014]

9 minutes ago, Free kick said:

But then the same scenario will apply for our opponents in that they will also have to rely on a domestics based squad.

This greatly impact Honduras and ES?  News to me.  I think they would be barely impacted by having no access to European based players.

[Free kick]

9 minutes ago, trc2014 said:

This greatly impact Honduras and ES?  News to me.  I think they would be barely impacted by having no access to European based players.

Are you suggesting that their domestic leagues and players are stronger that ours (ie>; in MLS)?   Having followed Concacaf Champions league for now 10-15 years would suggest otherwise.   

We have been an MLS heavy squad for this whole qualifying cycle.

Edited December 28, 2021 by Free kick

[trc2014]

1 minute ago, Free kick said:

Are you suggesting that their domestic leagues and players are stronger that ours (ie>; in MLS)?   Having followed Concacaf Champions league for now 10-15 years would suggest otherwise. 

This then circles back to the home field advantage.  All this talk about this being a special group, don’t look at pst results in Central America, etc. is assuming all our Euro based players are there.  If we are talking about under 6 points on this window being a disappointment and we are under the impression this needs to get done with a MLS based squad, we should be very concerned.

Also - have you not been watching the Canada team in Central America for the past 10-15 years?  Domestic based teams have constantly beat us.

[Grandbloke]

33 minutes ago, costarg said:

Add to that we have Johnston, Laryea and Henry who are pretty damn impossible to intimidate.  Add Cavallini to that if he makes the team/field.

Pretty sure Cavallini will be in the squad, partly for that reason. 😉

[Free kick]

51 minutes ago, trc2014 said:

This then circles back to the home field advantage.  All this talk about this being a special group, don’t look at pst results in Central America, etc. is assuming all our Euro based players are there.  If we are talking about under 6 points on this window being a disappointment and we are under the impression this needs to get done with a MLS based squad, we should be very concerned.

Also - have you not been watching the Canada team in Central America for the past 10-15 years?  Domestic based teams have constantly beat us.

I have been watching Canada teams in Central America in CCL for the past 10-15 years.  if Cnd MLS teams bother to show up,  then they win fairly easily.  None of those domestic based squads from central America are ever a threat to win in CCL. Mexico is another story.   It always seems to be that there is a big gulf between Mexican clubs and MLS clubs and a massive gulf between MLS teams and Liga Mx teams  and the talent from the rest of the region.     

 

Edit>; ok  i will concede that if euro based players are excluded,  then it would hurt us more in terms of how our starting lineup would look relative to what ES and Hon's starting lineup might look.   Fair enough.  but i don't buy at all the notion that its lost cause for us or that we should be overly concerned.   We can still put together a decent squad of domestic based talent. 

Edited December 28, 2021 by Free kick

[TOcanadafan]

I took a look at a couple of ‘number cruncher’ sites…

football-rankings.info  has us 89% to come top 3 and a 97% chance to qualify.  It also gives us a very low probability to get into Pot 3 (about 5%).

We Global Football  also gives us a 97% chance to qualify.  

Good enough to book our ticket?  
I guess that’s the good news… but the worried CMNT fan side of me also thinks these are based upon us getting a good number of points in the next window.  

[SpursFlu]

If you analyze the next window the best thing that can happen is that Jamaica beat Panama and Costa Rica. Regardless of who would end up finishing 4th it would ensure that team would end with less pts. To me, even if we have a stumble this window it would make for it to be really tough to drop out of the top 3. A stumble in my opinion is 2 or 3 pts

[EJsens1]

20 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

If you analyze the next window the best thing that can happen is that Jamaica beat Panama and Costa Rica. Regardless of who would end up finishing 4th it would ensure that team would end with less pts. To me, even if we have a stumble this window it would make for it to be really tough to drop out of the top 3. A stumble in my opinion is 2 or 3 pts

To me the minimum we need is 3 points in the next window going into the March window.  19 points either keeps us right in the top 3 or right there. Clearly let’s aim for more and I think we will, but 19 for the most part still allows us to control our own destiny I believe 

[Obinna]

2 minutes ago, EJsens1 said:

To me the minimum we need is 3 points in the next window going into the March window.  19 points either keeps us right in the top 3 or right there. Clearly let’s aim for more and I think we will, but 19 for the most part still allows us to control our own destiny I believe 

El Salvador should be a win away. We match up well against them, unlike Jamacia. Our pace, directness and quality will be too much for a Salvadorian team who'll be playing for pride. I wouldn't rule out a draw, but it would be very disappointing, much more so than away in Kingston. We'll need those 3 points and I think we'll get them.

The home match against the USA is a coin-flip. Could go either way, so I will say any points here are a bonus.

Honduras away will be a tough one. I think they're done, but it's too early for them to play like they are done. I expect them to play like they are desperate for points, because they are. They theoretically have time to turn it around.

They match up better against us than El Salvador, but they need the full points here and we don't. We can hit them on the counter.

I can see Ugbo starting and using his pace to stretch their backline, giving them something to think about. David in behind to find the pockets, with Davies and Buchanan giving them fits on the flanks. Eustaquio and Osorio to hold things together, in front of a backline that will pick itself.

My expectations..

Minimum: 4 points

Most likely: 5-6

Dream scenario: 7-9

[EJsens1]

27 minutes ago, Obinna said:

El Salvador should be a win away. We match up well against them, unlike Jamacia. Our pace, directness and quality will be too much for a Salvadorian team who'll be playing for pride. I wouldn't rule out a draw, but it would be very disappointing, much more so than away in Kingston. We'll need those 3 points and I think we'll get them.

The home match against the USA is a coin-flip. Could go either way, so I will say any points here are a bonus.

Honduras away will be a tough one. I think they're done, but it's too early for them to play like they are done. I expect them to play like they are desperate for points, because they are. They theoretically have time to turn it around.

They match up better against us than El Salvador, but they need the full points here and we don't. We can hit them on the counter.

I can see Ugbo starting and using his pace to stretch their backline, giving them something to think about. David in behind to find the pockets, with Davies and Buchanan giving them fits on the flanks. Eustaquio and Osorio to hold things together, in front of a backline that will pick itself.

My expectations..

Minimum: 4 points

Most likely: 5-6

Dream scenario: 7-9

Yeah I was kind of looking at it from a bare minimum standard for positioning where we don’t put ourselves in a big hole going into the final window next March.  If we only came out with 1-2 points, it would be alarming on so many fronts depending on what others do.

I don’t think (or hope) that we’ll crap the bed.  I hope for 6 points.  It’s funny how our schedule here mirrors the first window with Honduras, the US and then El Salvador but in reverse.  I agree that the big game to steal a win will be in El Salvador.  What we have seen from the first 2 windows is our depth and speed just destroy teams by the time that 3rd game comes around.  US game is a pick’m for sure.  I’d like to say we should beat Honduras, but they’ve been our nemesis for 15 years.  We gotta slay the dragon there. Again, hoping for 6 points 

[MtlMario]

18 hours ago, EJsens1 said:

  We gotta slay the dragon there. Again, hoping for 6 points 

How about a 9-1 win (a extra goal for interest)😀.  I'm predicting 7 pts.

[EJsens1]

18 minutes ago, MtlMario said:

How about a 9-1 win (a extra goal for interest)😀.  I'm predicting 7 pts.

I’d be down for 10-1.  I hate that team so much 

[Kent]

None of our 3 upcoming games are a slam dunk. For as well as we have performed on the road, we haven't won on the road yet in the Oct. If I had to bet I would say that ends this window, but it's not unfathomable that we lose to Honduras, not unfathomable that we lose to USA, and then we go into El Salvador as a wounded team.

We are undefeated so far, and that's awesome. But the last time a team went undefeated in the last round of qualifying was Mexico in 1998, the first year of the Hex. Of course the Hex was only 10 games, and an undefeated campaign has only been done once in 6 cycles. So as good as we are, it's unlikely we go undefeated through all 14 games.

I have a real hard time predicting how many points we come out of this window with. I can easily convince myself of any outcome. It's exciting, and terrifying.

[VinceA]

If we lose to the US, which we very well could, Twitter will be more of a hellscape than usual. The amount of clowning both sides have been doing too each other is insane.

If we get beaten by "Token Minutes FC" we'll never hear the end of it.

Edited December 31, 2021 by VinceA

[trc2014]

18 minutes ago, VinceA said:

If we lose to the US, which we very well could, Twitter will be more of a hellscape than usual. The amount of clowning both sides have been doing too each other is insane.

If we get beaten by "Token Minutes FC" we'll never hear the end of it.

People on this forum have short memories - Canada winning this game is still an upset.  Very possible, but an upset still.

Edited December 31, 2021 by trc2014

[VinceA]

14 minutes ago, trc2014 said:

People on this forum have short memories - Canada winning this game is still an upset.  Very possible, but an upset still.

It's been a lot of the "newer" fans on Twitter, particualrly certain accounts who changed their names to be more "CanMNT" focused who fuel these fires.

Plus of course the one troll out west who can't help himself. Ever.

[trc2014]

Also funny to me Molinaro’s 2022 bold predictions include Canada not only advancing to the WC Final, but the round of 16. The amazing thing is, without some amazing goaltending against Honduras and Mexico and some potentially lucky bounces in the Jamaica and US games, Canada could easily be sitting in fourth in the group.

[Sal333]

1 minute ago, trc2014 said:

Also funny to me Molinaro’s 2022 bold predictions include Canada not only advancing to the WC Final, but the round of 16. The amazing thing is, without some amazing goaltending against Honduras and Mexico and some potentially lucky bounces in the Jamaica and US games, Canada could easily be sitting in fourth in the group.

I agree with Molinaro.

[EJsens1]

7 minutes ago, trc2014 said:

Also funny to me Molinaro’s 2022 bold predictions include Canada not only advancing to the WC Final, but the round of 16. The amazing thing is, without some amazing goaltending against Honduras and Mexico and some potentially lucky bounces in the Jamaica and US games, Canada could easily be sitting in fourth in the group.

He also predicts Croatia to win the whole tournament 

[Ivan]

9 minutes ago, trc2014 said:

Also funny to me Molinaro’s 2022 bold predictions include Canada not only advancing to the WC Final, but the round of 16. The amazing thing is, without some amazing goaltending against Honduras and Mexico and some potentially lucky bounces in the Jamaica and US games, Canada could easily be sitting in fourth in the group.

All good teams have amazing goalkeeping and get (make their own) lucky bounces.

[trc2014]

20 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

I agree with Molinaro.

Don’t get me wrong - I’d be thrilled if he was right.  Just pointing out how much a few inches to the either side can impact this whole process.

[Dre_03]

Molinaro's 5 bold predictions are very bold. - I get that's the point.

I will guess he goes 1 for 5. Croatia isn't winning and neither are Ajax. David will not go to cash strapped Barca especially since they just signed Ferran Torres.

I really hope he is right on the next one but realistically don't see us coming out of the group (I do predict we get our first W)...So sure that leaves T.O getting a NWSL team.

[ted]

1 hour ago, trc2014 said:

Also funny to me Molinaro’s 2022 bold predictions include Canada not only advancing to the WC Final, but the round of 16. The amazing thing is, without some amazing goaltending against Honduras and Mexico and some potentially lucky bounces in the Jamaica and US games, Canada could easily be sitting in fourth in the group.

Welcome to Canada, what part of Mexico are you from? I ask because this ridiculous statement is not possible for usually pessimistic Canadian Supporters so clearly you are trolling.

[Kent]

9 hours ago, trc2014 said:

Also funny to me Molinaro’s 2022 bold predictions include Canada not only advancing to the WC Final, but the round of 16. The amazing thing is, without some amazing goaltending against Honduras and Mexico and some potentially lucky bounces in the Jamaica and US games, Canada could easily be sitting in fourth in the group.

After our win against Panama, I thought this "feels" like a round of 16 kind of team. It only sounds ridiculous because we haven't even made the World Cup since 1986. But it doesn't seem crazy to put us in the same category at the moment as USA and Mexico. If we are on roughly equal footing, then look at their recent performances in the World Cup.

2018 - Mexico R16

2014 - Mexico R16, USA R16

2010- Mexio R16, USA R16

You have to go back to 2006 when USA went out in the group stage (if you don't count them not qualifying in 2018 of course) to find one of them in the World Cup not making the round of 16. So I don't think the round of 16 is at all an outrageous prediction for us. It might even be where I set the over/under for us, but probably I'd actually set it at 3rd in the group since there is still a chance we don't make it at all.