The Road to Qatar.

[Sal333]

2 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

...unless the Canucks lose the Stanley Cup finals of course but hockey fans seem to forget about that sort of thing when they start going on and on about soccer hooligans. Also remember walking from downtown TO through what felt like close to a war zone at some points for a TFC match during the 2010 G20 riots. Being in TFC gear definitely seemed to help in not being mistaken for one of the rioting imbeciles as a couple of police officers warned me what streets to avoid and joked about how seriously I took my soccer if a full scale riot didn't put me off.   

And it ain't just the Canucks. There were also hockey riots here in Montreal when the Habs made a couple mediocre runs in the playoffs. Also, what many people forget is that here and in the Central American countries it's not the whole population or even a large segment. It's a small group of malcontents or nefarious shysters instigating the gun fire or the riots. I don't think we, Canadians, come off as more civilized or moral superiors.

[P-O]

...I'm sorry. There is no 'unless'.

 

Been to many Central America derbies. Mexico (America/Pumas, Atlas/Guadalajara), Guatemala (Mun-Com), Honduras(Olimpia/Motagua) and nothing ever comes close to our culture here. By passion, I mean, really, you can't even get into the stadium with your belt. Gotta pay the kid in the parking so they hold on to it, and by passion, I mean, leaving the stadium 3hours later, when the police tells you so.

 

Even the Rocket richard riot was nothing 60 years ago, or any Stanley Cup win/Loss by canadian teams.

You have to feel and live the passion from multigenerations and hatred towards each other.

My wife is from Guatemela, believe me when I can't even say the word "Cremas" as it will raise a lot more passion than the word Independance in Québec.

 

On a side note, the closest I've been soccer related in Canada was the Montreal/TFC semi final at the Big O. By closest doesn't mean it was even close tho...

 

But if you love that sport, these derbies are a must see, a must feel experience. Just rethinking about them gives me goosebumps.

 

 

[Blackjack15]

 

[Unnamed Trialist]

Even if we get 9 points out of the next window we won't have booked for Qatar yet. 

 

[dyslexic nam]

3 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Even if we get 9 points out of the next window we won't have booked for Qatar yet. 

That may be mathematically true (not sure) but realistically I think it would seal the deal.  In the next window, we play the US so they would drop points given that we win in your scenario, and Panama play Mexico so one of them (or both) will drop points.   In March, the US plays both Mexico and Panama so more dropped points in both games.  I find it hard to believe that we wouldn’t be safe hypothetically sitting at 25 points going into the last window.  

[Sal333]

4 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Even if we get 9 points out of the next window we won't have booked for Qatar yet. 

 

If we get 9 points, Herdman can play all the dual nationals and U23s wants he in the next window. We're booked for Qatar. 25 points will get any team to the WC. The thing is we wanna finish 1st in this round. This team will make a statement.

Edited December 28, 2021 by Sal333

[EJsens1]

7 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

That may be mathematically true (not sure) but realistically I think it would seal the deal.  In the next window, we play the US so they would drop points given that we win in your scenario, and Panama play Mexico so one of them (or both) will drop points.   In March, the US plays both Mexico and Panama so more dropped points in both games.  I find it hard to believe that we wouldn’t be safe hypothetically sitting at 25 points going into the last window.  

I agree.  Correct me if I’m wrong, but Panama plays their first game in the next window in Costa Rica right?  It would be great to see Panama lose that one (obviously) and we get a win to create separation for the rest of the window.  Panama just seems to find a way.  I don’t know how they do it 

[David Pinto]

5 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Even if we get 9 points out of the next window we won't have booked for Qatar yet. 

 

Not entirely true.. 

Of we get 9 points and panama get 1 (loss away to CR and Mex, plus a draw vs Jamacia) and CR lose to Mexico we would be guaranteed a top 3 spot. 

Improbable but technically possible and isn't that the best kind of possible. 

[Unnamed Trialist]

43 minutes ago, David Pinto said:

Not entirely true.. 

Of we get 9 points and panama get 1 (loss away to CR and Mex, plus a draw vs Jamacia) and CR lose to Mexico we would be guaranteed a top 3 spot. 

Improbable but technically possible and isn't that the best kind of possible. 

Correct, but I am not talking about strict numbers, I am predicting subjectively. 

My real point is how the nerves I still feel leading the group and playing as we are, are most likely not going to be relieved even after total success next window. 

Here are the best (and totally unlikely) scenarios, as you refer to:

Canada: 3 wins, 25 points

USA: 3 losses, 15 points; 2 losses and a draw (not vs us), 16 points, but we take head-to-head and qualify.

Mexico: 3 losses, 14 points; 2 losses and draw Panama, 15 points; 2 losses and beat Panama, 17 points; we qualify the first two scenarios.

Panama: 3 losses, 14 points; 2 losses and draw Mexico, 15 points; 2 losses and beat Mexico, 17 points; we qualify the first two scenarios.

Since the optimistic scenarios require Costa Rica to win at least 2, that would put them at least at 15 points, we qualify; if they win the other, vs. Jamaica, that puts them at 18 points, not qualified over them at least.

Both the premise of Canada winning all three and the other pessimistic scenarios for our direct rivals are extremely unlikely, which is why I argue: we are still going to be nervous as hell until March.

 

Edited December 28, 2021 by Unnamed Trialist

[Free kick]

2 hours ago, Sal333 said:

 The thing is we wanna finish 1st in this round. This team will make a statement.

If that means getting into Pot 3,  then I hear you.   But if its about nothing more than bragging rights,  then it doesn't matter to me.    That's because whoever finished first, second or third is going to be quickly forgotten and (most importantly) going to Qatar as an unknown, disrespected and underrated team can be very advantageous for Canada.   

WCQ and the WC finals are ( and have always been) a game of musical chairs.  As long as you have a chair to sit on and continue in the game, you have succeeded.  There are no trophies for finishing first in a group and nobody remembers or cares who finished first in a group. 

 

Edit.:  Besides, we also have to consider that, with 4 of 6 remaining games at home, Mexico has the inside edge to to secure a spot and even finish first.   Canada has only 2 of 4 that will be at home. 

 

 

Edited December 28, 2021 by Free kick

[Unnamed Trialist]

The worst scenario:

We lose all three, 16 points.

The US wins three, 24 points

Panama and Mexico win two and draw each other, both at 21 points.

Requiring us to make up 5 points in the last window. And most likely having to win in the last window to stay above anyone surging from below.

Frankly, if you compare, the worst case scenario is more likely than the best I described above.

[Approve My Account Pls]

37 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

The worst scenario:

We lose all three, 16 points.

The US wins three, 24 points

Panama and Mexico win two and draw each other, both at 21 points.

Requiring us to make up 5 points in the last window. And most likely having to win in the last window to stay above anyone surging from below.

Frankly, if you compare, the worst case scenario is more likely than the best I described above.

Maybe the worst case scenario you described is more likely with regard to Panama and Mexico's performances. But for ourselves, 0 pts would be a monumental collapse. I understand El Salvador and Honduras on the road could very well be catch games but I still feel like our expectations should be something along the lines of:

- 3 pts or less - failure of a window

- 4/5 pts - not great, but tolerable

- 6 pts - the expectation. I know Central America on the road is tough, but both these teams are in the bin. For 6 pts I personally think we have a better chance of win at home and one on the road than we do at 2 wins on the road.

- 7 or 9 = "Great Success" - Borat

 

Tbh I would not be surprised if we drop the Honduras game. a) Its Honduras, b) wouldn't be surprised if we came out caught up in our own hype and look complacent kinda like MD-1 of the Octagonal. But if that were to happen, there's no chance Herdman or the leadership group would allow that to be replicated vs the US or vs El Salvador.

[Alex]

I sound like a broken record (I know this is a special group) but there’s a reason why we haven’t won in Central America since 2004! That includes Belize! 

[Unnamed Trialist]

All I am doing is trying to be objective: our best case scenario most likely does not qualify us yet, and the worst case scenario screws us and puts the fifth place team in range for the last window. 

I am not saying what I think will, could or should happen. 

[P-O]

It would be a huge collapse to lose against that Salvador team.

I'm pessimistic here but if we get 4 points out of this, I'll still be confident.

I don't share the over optimistic view that the 6 points away are in the bag next window.

 

[Approve My Account Pls]

15 minutes ago, Alex said:

I sound like a broken record (I know this is a special group) but there’s a reason why we haven’t won in Central America since 2004! That includes Belize! 

We hadn't scored in Mexico since '81, hadn't beat them since 2000, and no one has taken pts away to both Mexico and USA ever. Forget just the talent, it's the mentality shift and belief in the squad that will be the reason that changes this window. I'm not saying I expect smooth sailing, I actually expect us to drop points away this window, but at least one of those two matches should be a win

[P-O]

45 minutes ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

We hadn't scored in Mexico since '81, hadn't beat them since 2000, and no one has taken pts away to both Mexico and USA ever. Forget just the talent, it's the mentality shift and belief in the squad that will be the reason that changes this window. I'm not saying I expect smooth sailing, I actually expect us to drop points away this window, but at least one of those two matches should be a win

There's also a game at home versus the USA.

We could easily lose, draw or win that game.

That would mean a 3 points window.

[VinceA]

Honestly, I don't think we'll know how Central America turns out until we actually go there and play. Lots of factors, the biggest one is time. We haven't played there in a while.

The Jamaica game could be an indication but still I don't know how things will go.

[Obinna]

Here are two facts:

1. We haven't lost on the road yet. Actually, we haven't lost period. 

2. Honduras and El Salvador are weaker teams than USA and Mexico. 

I know, it's "Central America", but that doesn't change those 2 facts. 

The odds of us not getting anything on the road next window are extremely small. 

[P-O]

The positive thing is that most of our squad is new and the fear factor of Central America doesn't really exist after you have played Dorrmund away, PSG away, Sporting away, the Istambul derby & the Belgrade Derby.

This confidence and experience gained will hopefully feed the whole squad.

[trc2014]

I’m surprised no one is talking about what kind of roster we will have for Honduras and ES.  It wasn’t long ago that many European teams were not allowing their players to travel for international matches.  There is a worst case scenario where we have a very heavily MLS based squad for this whole window.

[SpursFlu]

Another thing to consider is when we go to Central America those teams will have to open up against us. That could really work in our favor. That along with at this stage those teams are desperate to earn points. It will be a totally different game than what we've seen them play us in Canada 

Edited December 28, 2021 by SpursFlu

[costarg]

We exceeded expectations (and hopes) in two or three big games, we didn't meet expectations vs Honduras at home.  It's possible we trip up on a game or two that we expect to win.  It wouldn't be crazy or too shocking, pretty normal.

[costarg]

4 minutes ago, P-O said:

The positive thing is that most of our squad is new and the fear factor of Central America doesn't really exist after you have played Dorrmund away, PSG away, Sporting away, the Istambul derby & the Belgrade Derby.

This confidence and experience gained will hopefully feed the whole squad.

Add to that we have Johnston, Laryea and Henry who are pretty damn impossible to intimidate.  Add Cavallini to that if he makes the team/field.

[Free kick]

26 minutes ago, trc2014 said:

There is a worst case scenario where we have a very heavily MLS based squad for this whole window.

But then the same scenario will apply for our opponents in that they will also have to rely on a domestics based squad.

Edited December 28, 2021 by Free kick