The Road to Qatar.

[Obinna]

9 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Think it's becoming increasingly clear that omicron is milder than delta and the vaccines are actually working against it:

COVID-19 is here to stay and we are going to have to learn to live with it. I'm confident we'll be seeing a near normal World Cup.

Not sure if you're implying the new variant is milder because of the covid vaccines, but generally speaking viruses want to mutate to a milder strain anyways. 

But either way though, yes, I think signs are good we'll have a somewhat normal world cup. At the same time, I wouldn't call it a slam dunk yet. The world is still volatile and I wouldn't yet put money on things being stable this time next year. 

[Alex]

Hopefully what ends up happening is that this omicron variant is more contagious but milder than delta. Then it snuffs out delta, becomes the dominant strain and ends up being a mild flu. 

[Obinna]

1 minute ago, Alex said:

Hopefully what ends up happening is that this omicron variant is more contagious but milder than delta. Then it snuffs out delta, becomes the dominant strain and ends up being a mild flu. 

I think that's the most likely way this will unfold.

With that, you'd expect the easing of restrictions and regulations to follow, which is the real culprit when it comes to things running smoothly (international soccer and otherwise).

[frattinator]

10 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Not sure if you're implying the new variant is milder because of the covid vaccines, but generally speaking viruses want to mutate to a milder strain anyways. 

That's actually a common misconception of how viruses work, and while it has some notable exceptions (Spanish flu being the one most people think of, and even that's not a perfect example), there are actually very few historical examples. Most viruses we encounter on a daily basis do not always mutate to attenuate their effects. Influenza, measles, even smallpox never mutated to be less deadly.

One reason a lot of people have that misconception is because we do see huge drops of mortality rate and overall severity in a lot of these diseases, and people chalk that to potential virus mutation. However, with a lot of these viruses, the reason we saw huge decline in mortality rate and disease severity (and in the case of smallpox, actual eradication in our community) is actually due to both high rates of vaccination (prime example being measles, the R0 of measles has not changed, but it is much less of an issue for our community if we can get 95% of our kids vaccinated against it), and better options for treatment (the fact that we have much better antiviral treatment options for the influenza is huge). 

A lot of people point to the myxoma virus, introduced into Australia in the 1950s to control wild rabbits as an example of how viruses evolve to become less deadly. And while that was true for a little while, where the IFR of the virus dropped to 0.5, research showed that it is now spiking up again.

From a theory perspective, the idea that it is the virus's best interest to evolve into a less deadly version in order to achieve greater transmission is unlikely to be a factor to a virus like COVID. For COVID, where death occurs weeks after the transmission ceases, direct selection on COVID IFR should be very weak. 

While there is a chance that Omicron ends up to be less severe while being more transmissible (which would be fantastic), we shouldn't take it for granted it will, or that there won't be other variants that would reverse the trend. In the meantime, I'm going to bang on the drums of let's get everyone vaccinated because that's the best way to make sure we have fewer variants down the road and we can get people traveling again and have a proper world cup next year (I've already convinced my wife to go and I don't want to miss that opportunity). 

As an aside: outside of very specific cases, travel bans that we are seeing in Canada and the US (and Europe) isn't actually going to stop virus transmission, instead it just plays the blame game. We already have community transmission in the US with Omicron so I have no idea what banning travel from Botswana is doing for Canada when probably a ton of people from Michigan already have it. We are going to need to learn to live with this virus whether we like it or not, and the best way for us to mitigate the disruption of COVID is to treat it like how we treat measles, get as many people vaccinated as possible, test regularly and setup proper disease surveillance so we can manage small outbreaks quickly. Zero COVID is both theoretically and practically impossible at this point and should no longer be the goal of any public health institution. 

[Obinna]

1 hour ago, frattinator said:

That's actually a common misconception of how viruses work, and while it has some notable exceptions (Spanish flu being the one most people think of, and even that's not a perfect example), there are actually very few historical examples. Most viruses we encounter on a daily basis do not always mutate to attenuate their effects. Influenza, measles, even smallpox never mutated to be less deadly.

One reason a lot of people have that misconception is because we do see huge drops of mortality rate and overall severity in a lot of these diseases, and people chalk that to potential virus mutation. However, with a lot of these viruses, the reason we saw huge decline in mortality rate and disease severity (and in the case of smallpox, actual eradication in our community) is actually due to both high rates of vaccination (prime example being measles, the R0 of measles has not changed, but it is much less of an issue for our community if we can get 95% of our kids vaccinated against it), and better options for treatment (the fact that we have much better antiviral treatment options for the influenza is huge). 

A lot of people point to the myxoma virus, introduced into Australia in the 1950s to control wild rabbits as an example of how viruses evolve to become less deadly. And while that was true for a little while, where the IFR of the virus dropped to 0.5, research showed that it is now spiking up again.

From a theory perspective, the idea that it is the virus's best interest to evolve into a less deadly version in order to achieve greater transmission is unlikely to be a factor to a virus like COVID. For COVID, where death occurs weeks after the transmission ceases, direct selection on COVID IFR should be very weak. 

While there is a chance that Omicron ends up to be less severe while being more transmissible (which would be fantastic), we shouldn't take it for granted it will, or that there won't be other variants that would reverse the trend. In the meantime, I'm going to bang on the drums of let's get everyone vaccinated because that's the best way to make sure we have fewer variants down the road and we can get people traveling again and have a proper world cup next year (I've already convinced my wife to go and I don't want to miss that opportunity). 

As an aside: outside of very specific cases, travel bans that we are seeing in Canada and the US (and Europe) isn't actually going to stop virus transmission, instead it just plays the blame game. We already have community transmission in the US with Omicron so I have no idea what banning travel from Botswana is doing for Canada when probably a ton of people from Michigan already have it. We are going to need to learn to live with this virus whether we like it or not, and the best way for us to mitigate the disruption of COVID is to treat it like how we treat measles, get as many people vaccinated as possible, test regularly and setup proper disease surveillance so we can manage small outbreaks quickly. Zero COVID is both theoretically and practically impossible at this point and should no longer be the goal of any public health institution. 

I meant should they mutate, the tendency is for them to mutate into something mild. I never meant to imply they always mutate and do so in a milder way.

Either way though, appreciate the perspective on that evolutionary theory, and contrasting that with vaccine efficacy!

Edited December 2, 2021 by Obinna
spelling

[GasPed]

26 minutes ago, frattinator said:

That's actually a common misconception of how viruses work, and while it has some notable exceptions (Spanish flu being the one most people think of, and even that's not a perfect example), there are actually very few historical examples. Most viruses we encounter on a daily basis do not always mutate to attenuate their effects. Influenza, measles, even smallpox never mutated to be less deadly.

One reason a lot of people have that misconception is because we do see huge drops of mortality rate and overall severity in a lot of these diseases, and people chalk that to potential virus mutation. However, with a lot of these viruses, the reason we saw huge decline in mortality rate and disease severity (and in the case of smallpox, actual eradication in our community) is actually due to both high rates of vaccination (prime example being measles, the R0 of measles has not changed, but it is much less of an issue for our community if we can get 95% of our kids vaccinated against it), and better options for treatment (the fact that we have much better antiviral treatment options for the influenza is huge). 

A lot of people point to the myxoma virus, introduced into Australia in the 1950s to control wild rabbits as an example of how viruses evolve to become less deadly. And while that was true for a little while, where the IFR of the virus dropped to 0.5, research showed that it is now spiking up again.

From a theory perspective, the idea that it is the virus's best interest to evolve into a less deadly version in order to achieve greater transmission is unlikely to be a factor to a virus like COVID. For COVID, where death occurs weeks after the transmission ceases, direct selection on COVID IFR should be very weak. 

While there is a chance that Omicron ends up to be less severe while being more transmissible (which would be fantastic), we shouldn't take it for granted it will, or that there won't be other variants that would reverse the trend. In the meantime, I'm going to bang on the drums of let's get everyone vaccinated because that's the best way to make sure we have fewer variants down the road and we can get people traveling again and have a proper world cup next year (I've already convinced my wife to go and I don't want to miss that opportunity). 

As an aside: outside of very specific cases, travel bans that we are seeing in Canada and the US (and Europe) isn't actually going to stop virus transmission, instead it just plays the blame game. We already have community transmission in the US with Omicron so I have no idea what banning travel from Botswana is doing for Canada when probably a ton of people from Michigan already have it. We are going to need to learn to live with this virus whether we like it or not, and the best way for us to mitigate the disruption of COVID is to treat it like how we treat measles, get as many people vaccinated as possible, test regularly and setup proper disease surveillance so we can manage small outbreaks quickly. Zero COVID is both theoretically and practically impossible at this point and should no longer be the goal of any public health institution. 

This is a very good post - both facts and commonsense here.  Given that you seem to know what you're talking about, I have a few questions:

• There has been a significant narrative running through MSM that basically "anti-vaxxers are selfish and killing people".  What you're saying is more nuanced and different - i.e. vaccinations will help reduce the virus reservoir that contributes to mutations.  Is that correct?
• Given the ubiquity of Delta and (maybe) Omicron, do you not think that in the fairly near future there will be only two populations in the world - i.e. A) The vaccinated people who contacted/contracted COVID and fought it off, and; B ) The unvaccinated people who contacted/contracted COVID and fought it off?
• From a "virus reservoir" standpoint, wouldn't the above two populations basically look the same?  Or more specifically, isn't it impossible to know which (if either) of the above populations would better serve as latent hosts for mutations to occur?  And isn't it likewise impossible to know whether certain mutations would be more transmissible/severe for A people vs B people and vice versa?

For me, right now I feel this is looking more and more like influenza - as in, vaccines are generally protective but not failsafe, having the flu previously is protective but not failsafe, mutations occur constantly and you hope a bad one that eludes vaccines/spreads rapidly does not occur, but it might.   In other words, it's just another virus that could end us.   

 

 

[archer21]

4 minutes ago, GasPed said:

This is a very good post - both facts and commonsense here.  Given that you seem to know what you're talking about, I have a few questions:

• There has been a significant narrative running through MSM that basically "anti-vaxxers are selfish and killing people".  What you're saying is more nuanced and different - i.e. vaccinations will help reduce the virus reservoir that contributes to mutations.  Is that correct?
• Given the ubiquity of Delta and (maybe) Omicron, do you not think that in the fairly near future there will be only two populations in the world - i.e. A) The vaccinated people who contacted/contracted COVID and fought it off, and; B ) The unvaccinated people who contacted/contracted COVID and fought it off?
• From a "virus reservoir" standpoint, wouldn't the above two populations basically look the same?  Or more specifically, isn't it impossible to know which (if either) of the above populations would better serve as latent hosts for mutations to occur?  And isn't it likewise impossible to know whether certain mutations would be more transmissible/severe for A people vs B people and vice versa?

For me, right now I feel this is looking more and more like influenza - as in, vaccines are generally protective but not failsafe, having the flu previously is protective but not failsafe, mutations occur constantly and you hope a bad one that eludes vaccines/spreads rapidly does not occur, but it might.   In other words, it's just another virus that could end us.   

 

 

@frattinator  @Obinna can you guys please move this to a covid thread? We don’t need another thread being taken over with this stuff, it never ends well lol 

PS I know you are all being reasonable and not trying to start fights and arguments, but you know how divisive these topics can be.

[footballfreak]

1 hour ago, Obinna said:

Vaccine rates are extremely low in African countries. My understanding is that Nigeria, for example, has a roughly 2% covid vaccination rate (they've also suffered under 4000 deaths - in a country of +200M). 

Press X to doubt.

Measuring Africa’s Data Gap: The cost of not counting the dead 

Quote

Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, recorded only 10% of all deaths in 2017. 

 

The pandemic further "paralysed all the civil registration activities" in the country, which were not deemed an essential service, according to a UN report in April 2020. 

 

This could explain why the number of Covid-19 deaths per million people remains relatively low there. 

Nigeria has recorded nine Covid-19 deaths per million, compared to the global average of 316.

 

[BuzzAndSting]

Please move the Rona talk to the thread linked below. Copy and paste if you must, and I'll delete the posts.

 

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

It looks like Honduras will ( just like Panama ) play Peru in January

http://www.diez.hn/eliminatoriasqatar2022/1504874-498/seleccion-honduras-estaria-cerrando-partido-amistoso-para-enero-peru-concacaf%3famp=1

[VinceA]

1 minute ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

It looks like Honduras will ( just like Panama ) play Peru in January

http://www.diez.hn/eliminatoriasqatar2022/1504874-498/seleccion-honduras-estaria-cerrando-partido-amistoso-para-enero-peru-concacaf%3famp=1

I hope we have a second friendly.

[dyslexic nam]

We have been so spoiled with games lately that the periods where we aren’t playing seem unbearable.  It is going to be a long wait until the end of January.  

[Shway]

3 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

We have been so spoiled with games lately that the periods where we aren’t playing seem unbearable.  It is going to be a long wait until the end of January.  

Literally this 🤣.

Enjoy your holidays, and it’ll be back sooner than we think.

I do hope when qualifying is over we still play friendlies in between the nations league matches.  

[VinceA]

Jamaica fans (rightyfully so) are furious it doesn't seem like they'll be doing any sort of microcycle while everyone else is.

[CanadaFan123]

19 hours ago, VinceA said:

I hope we have a second friendly.

We could but then it would (hopefully) just be B players playing. In terms of WCQ preparations it would be insignificant so I'm not too bothered. 4 games is already a stretch.

[Stryker911]

20 hours ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

It looks like Honduras will ( just like Panama ) play Peru in January

http://www.diez.hn/eliminatoriasqatar2022/1504874-498/seleccion-honduras-estaria-cerrando-partido-amistoso-para-enero-peru-concacaf%3famp=1

Will be interesting to see how CONCACAF teams stack up against the 5th place CONEMBOL team. Peru is currently in the inter continental spot 

[Metro]

 

[SpursFlu]

On 12/2/2021 at 8:53 AM, Obinna said:

I think that's the most likely way this will unfold.

With that, you'd expect the easing of restrictions and regulations to follow, which is the real culprit when it comes to things running smoothly (international soccer and otherwise).

Oh I don't know it sounds pretty scary to me. It's "new" ... it's a "variant"...it's from "Africa" and worst of all scientist in South Africa say it causes 2 to 3 days of muscle pain.

Have you ever gone back to the gym after Christmas break and done a leg workout. It's a real killer

[TGAA_Star]

18 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

We have been so spoiled with games lately that the periods where we aren’t playing seem unbearable.  It is going to be a long wait until the end of January.  

That is why whenever I've watched the 2021 FIFA Arab Cup, it makes me salivate all the more to watch Canada play

[TGAA_Star]

16 hours ago, Stryker911 said:

Will be interesting to see how CONCACAF teams stack up against the 5th place CONEMBOL team. Peru is currently in the inter continental spot 

But then the CONMEBOL team is facing AFC in the Inter continental playoff anyway so 🤷 

However, that aside when it does come to CONMEBOL, qualifying could go either way because Peru, Uruguay, Chile or Bolivia could end up in that 5th spot

[ECW]

On 12/2/2021 at 12:26 PM, frattinator said:

That's actually a common misconception of how viruses work, and while it has some notable exceptions (Spanish flu being the one most people think of, and even that's not a perfect example), there are actually very few historical examples. Most viruses we encounter on a daily basis do not always mutate to attenuate their effects. Influenza, measles, even smallpox never mutated to be less deadly.

One reason a lot of people have that misconception is because we do see huge drops of mortality rate and overall severity in a lot of these diseases, and people chalk that to potential virus mutation. However, with a lot of these viruses, the reason we saw huge decline in mortality rate and disease severity (and in the case of smallpox, actual eradication in our community) is actually due to both high rates of vaccination (prime example being measles, the R0 of measles has not changed, but it is much less of an issue for our community if we can get 95% of our kids vaccinated against it), and better options for treatment (the fact that we have much better antiviral treatment options for the influenza is huge). 

A lot of people point to the myxoma virus, introduced into Australia in the 1950s to control wild rabbits as an example of how viruses evolve to become less deadly. And while that was true for a little while, where the IFR of the virus dropped to 0.5, research showed that it is now spiking up again.

From a theory perspective, the idea that it is the virus's best interest to evolve into a less deadly version in order to achieve greater transmission is unlikely to be a factor to a virus like COVID. For COVID, where death occurs weeks after the transmission ceases, direct selection on COVID IFR should be very weak. 

While there is a chance that Omicron ends up to be less severe while being more transmissible (which would be fantastic), we shouldn't take it for granted it will, or that there won't be other variants that would reverse the trend. In the meantime, I'm going to bang on the drums of let's get everyone vaccinated because that's the best way to make sure we have fewer variants down the road and we can get people traveling again and have a proper world cup next year (I've already convinced my wife to go and I don't want to miss that opportunity). 

As an aside: outside of very specific cases, travel bans that we are seeing in Canada and the US (and Europe) isn't actually going to stop virus transmission, instead it just plays the blame game. We already have community transmission in the US with Omicron so I have no idea what banning travel from Botswana is doing for Canada when probably a ton of people from Michigan already have it. We are going to need to learn to live with this virus whether we like it or not, and the best way for us to mitigate the disruption of COVID is to treat it like how we treat measles, get as many people vaccinated as possible, test regularly and setup proper disease surveillance so we can manage small outbreaks quickly. Zero COVID is both theoretically and practically impossible at this point and should no longer be the goal of any public health institution. 

This piece on the Omicron might be relevant. 

[ECW]

1 minute ago, ECW said:

This piece on the Omicron might be relevant.

https://healthydebate.ca/2021/12/topic/the-emergence-of-omicron-variant/

1 minute ago, ECW said:

 

 

 

 

 

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

Honduras vs Colombia in Ft. Lauderdale on Sunday January 16th.

This may or may not affect our Camp Poutine. It would be cool to get a second friendly match against Colombia.

https://fcf.com.co/index.php/2021/12/10/partido-amistoso-de-la-seleccion-colombia-masculina-de-mayores/

Edited December 10, 2021 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[TGAA_Star]

Or instead of Colombia, we can actually get a friendly against any of the European nations. Now that would be great.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

1 minute ago, TGAA_Star said:

Or instead of Colombia, we can actually get a friendly against any of the European nations. Now that would be great.

Only the European nations that have a league that takes a break in January.