The Road to Qatar.

[Unnamed Trialist]

9 minutes ago, trc2014 said:

I’m surprised no one has mentioned yet that if Canada plays NZ, Herdman will play against a country he coached for to get to the WC. 

We won't have a chance, because they'll inspire themselves in rugby legends and turn him inside out, since all his psychological advantage is based on stories they know in and out. 

[Treppy2]

58 minutes ago, trc2014 said:

I’m surprised no one has mentioned yet that if Canada plays NZ, Herdman will play against a country he coached for to get to the WC. 

On talent, unquestionably New Zealand should be the OFC representative. But I’ll just point this out, given the OFC qualifying tournament will take place in Qatar in June ahead of the intercontinental playoff: 

Any kiwis who play their club football in New Zealand will be going from mid-winter in NZ to 40-degree conditions in Qatar. All of the other teams in the tournament will be from hot-weather countries and used to the heat. If, after four or five energy-sapping matches, it comes down to one match against, say, Fiji, I wouldn’t say it’s a near-certain win for NZ.

[narduch]

1 minute ago, Treppy2 said:

On talent, unquestionably New Zealand should be the OFC representative. But I’ll just point this out, given the OFC qualifying tournament will take place in Qatar in June ahead of the intercontinental playoff: 

Any kiwis who play their club football in New Zealand will be going from mid-winter in NZ to 40-degree conditions in Qatar. All of the other teams in the tournament will be from hot-weather countries and used to the heat. If, after four or five energy-sapping matches, it comes down to one match against, say, Fiji, I wouldn’t say it’s a near-certain win for NZ.

The games will be indoors. Like when Canada played Mexico at this summer's Gold Cup

[Treppy2]

1 minute ago, narduch said:

The games will be indoors. Like when Canada played Mexico at this summer's Gold Cup

Ah! Thanks for the info. That makes sense.

[Stryker911]

5 hours ago, Xavier. said:

Yea you guys are greatly underestimating New Zealand, remember this isn't a Home/Away. I'm taking New Zealand as clear favourites against El Salvador, and favourites against Honduras.

Also Panama are by far the favourites for that 4th spot, it's a low chance Jamaica get it. Jamaica would have to double their points just to match Panama's right now.

Vs. New Zealand I would give Panama the edge to due having more experience together before hand + probably better coached, on paper New Zealand is better tho. 

On paper they actually aren't that good. Realistically Chris Wood is a star, Singh has potential, but he probably doesn't make our team, and Winston Reid is good, but aging and injury prone. Rest of the team is scrubs from all over the world. Their starting goalie is playing mid-table Isreal. A handful of guys playing in 2nd division in Denmark, Serie C, League two, 2nd division Sweden, South Africa,etc.. They actually look to be at a similar level as Suriname and we saw how that went.

[Free kick]

19 minutes ago, Stryker911 said:

On paper they actually aren't that good. Realistically Chris Wood is a star, Singh has potential, but he probably doesn't make our team, and Winston Reid is good, but aging and injury prone. Rest of the team is scrubs from all over the world. Their starting goalie is playing mid-table Isreal. A handful of guys playing in 2nd division in Denmark, Serie C, League two, 2nd division Sweden, South Africa,etc.. They actually look to be at a similar level as Suriname and we saw how that went.

i was just typing the same thing.  I looked at their roster following some mention earlier about NZ having some "good young team".   I just didnt see it.  

Of course, upsets can happen if you don't plan properly and take anyone too lightly.  Especially if an opponent decides to play 11 men behind the ball for 90 minutes.  But the talent is not comparable at all.  I think that Canada of the past 4 WCQ cycles has more talent than the current NZ squad.  And any of the current eight Concacaf sides still standing ( and then a few others) should be favoured versus NZ.  Again, this is all on paper.

Edited November 27, 2021 by Free kick

[Xavier.]

40 minutes ago, Stryker911 said:

On paper they actually aren't that good. Realistically Chris Wood is a star, Singh has potential, but he probably doesn't make our team, and Winston Reid is good, but aging and injury prone. Rest of the team is scrubs from all over the world. Their starting goalie is playing mid-table Isreal. A handful of guys playing in 2nd division in Denmark, Serie C, League two, 2nd division Sweden, South Africa,etc.. They actually look to be at a similar level as Suriname and we saw how that went.

True, they are similar to Suriname on paper, but they are also better than El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, but unlike Suriname it won't be the first time New Zealand have played with each other. 

[Xavier.]

42 minutes ago, Free kick said:

i was just typing the same thing.  I looked at their roster following some mention earlier about NZ having some "good young team".   I just didnt see it.  

Of course, upsets can happen if you don't plan properly and take anyone too lightly.  Especially if an opponent decides to play 11 men behind the ball for 90 minutes.  But the talent is not comparable at all.  I think that Canada of the past 4 WCQ cycles has more talent than the current NZ squad.  And any of the current eight Concacaf sides still standing ( and then a few others) should be favoured versus NZ.  Again, this is all on paper.

It makes no sense to me how you could look at El Salvador's side and say they are better then New Zealand on paper... It's  just objectively wrong. 

[Free kick]

1 hour ago, Xavier. said:

It makes no sense to me how you could look at El Salvador's side and say they are better then New Zealand on paper... It's  just objectively wrong. 

 I said: "  And any of the current eight Concacaf sides still standing ( and then a few others) should be favoured versus NZ.  Again, this is all on paper."

 

You said:  " It's  just objectively wrong."

 

You are being much more categorical and definitive than me .  What proof do you have?  what objective evidence do you have (eg: Rankings, stars etc)?   Because I would be saying the same thing as what i said, if i were a New Zealander.   If Canada's squad was made up of the same players that NZ currently have, i would be saying the same thing : That they are favored.

Again, lets look at the two squads side by side on paper.   I look at NZ and I dont know how anyone can conclude anything other than the fact that i am looking at a bunch of journeymen.  see @Stryker911 post above, i cant argue that.   THAT DOESN MAKE THEM BAD PEOPLE OR MEAN PEOPLE 😃.  But it is what i see.   With ES and Hon and a few other, there are some established starters on first div sides.   some guys with a bit of pedigree.  Plus these nations are "soccer first" nations.  we all know that that is not NZ.   .and they are all similar in size

Again, if there is objective evidence, I would like to hear it.   Again, you said "objectively wrong".   Really?  well, i would be more than happy to change mind and agree with you but then you have to give me something other than "thats just objectively wrong"

 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2021 by Free kick

[Obinna]

1 hour ago, Stryker911 said:

On paper they actually aren't that good. Realistically Chris Wood is a star, Singh has potential, but he probably doesn't make our team, and Winston Reid is good, but aging and injury prone. Rest of the team is scrubs from all over the world. Their starting goalie is playing mid-table Isreal. A handful of guys playing in 2nd division in Denmark, Serie C, League two, 2nd division Sweden, South Africa,etc.. They actually look to be at a similar level as Suriname and we saw how that went.

On paper they are basically what we were in the early 2000s. 

Also, I think Singh makes our team pretty consistently, as does Wood, although neither would be a lock to start. Well on second thought, Wood being more of a target man would have a good case. He scored a lot of goals in England's top two divisions. I take him over Cavallini for sure, if not Ugbo.

1 hour ago, Treppy2 said:

On talent, unquestionably New Zealand should be the OFC representative. But I’ll just point this out, given the OFC qualifying tournament will take place in Qatar in June ahead of the intercontinental playoff: 

Any kiwis who play their club football in New Zealand will be going from mid-winter in NZ to 40-degree conditions in Qatar. All of the other teams in the tournament will be from hot-weather countries and used to the heat. If, after four or five energy-sapping matches, it comes down to one match against, say, Fiji, I wouldn’t say it’s a near-certain win for NZ.

Sure, the point on heat is moot, they are playing inside, but the schedule isn't.

Haven't looked at the schedule, but if they are grinding through the qualifiers and the play off immediately follows, I can see them being stretched thin.

Or, you could take the optimistic view they'd be in rhythm, I guess...

[kacbru]

3 hours ago, Hawkguy said:

If we can't beat New Zealand (assuming we play them), we don't deserve to play the Spain's and Belgium's of the world. 

Hardly. It will be a one off game. Sure, we should expect t to win, but we should also expect to finish in the top three. Doesn't mean it will happen.

We didn't beat Honduras at home. Does that mean we don't deserve to play the Spain's and Belgium's of the world? 

[Califax]

[Sal333]

2 minutes ago, Califax said:

She looks like she doesn't care what you're telling her. She's wearing red but maybe she ain't a fan of Les Rouges

Edited November 27, 2021 by Sal333

[Big_M]

new zealand on paper looks better than at least 1-2 of the current eight of concacaf...at mls level or above el salvador has almost nothing, a bunch of mls subs and roldan the only starter

[SthMelbRed]

Honestly, I just checked the list of recent call-ups for New Zealand on Wikipedia to see if I've somehow missed something after reading some of the words of (sort of) doom on this thread. I gotta say, I just don't see it. I follow football more than the average guy, and I can only see 5 names that I've heard of, and two of those are only known to me because they were momentarily shit for the Whitecaps a few years ago. Nobody in their right mind would suggest that Canada would be anything but heavy favourites going into a playoff with the All-Whites. There's nothing there that would overly frighten any of the other 7 CONCACAF sides still standing, either. Panama will be in a slightly party mood after having seen the draw.

[footballfreak]

For anyone who wants to kill some time and get a look at New Zealand, they recently played a friendly in Abu Dhabi against 148th ranked Gambia. 

 

Edited November 27, 2021 by footballfreak

[Obinna]

7 hours ago, SthMelbRed said:

Panama will be in a slightly party mood after having seen the draw.

Well Panama barely got past Curacao, who recently lost to New Zealand in a friendly. 

 

[TGAA_Star]

I don't know why everyone thinks we are going to finish in 4th for the play off spot especially when right now we are in a top 3 place and we have been unbeaten in qualifying thus far. Have not lost a game in the Octagonal. We could qualify directly as a top 3 team so I don't know why everyone thinks we finish 4th or why we're even talking about New Zealand for the IC playoff spot. Let's just focus on these next 3 games in this window and then see what our chances are, after that. Because there is only 6 more qualifying games left altogether.

[beachesl]

Yes, let´s win the Q-cup by winning out! We should get cheeky and actually create an Ocho trophy for a half-drunk V who  happens to be at whatever clincher to present. When we make it to Qatar, we could also present it to the winning team in the Group of Death.

 

Edited November 27, 2021 by beachesl

[TGAA_Star]

Against Honduras especially on the road I see us winning that game easily given how disappointing the Hondurans have been in qualifying thus far

Against USA, this is the only game that worries me. Because I think this is the game where we finally lose and our unbeaten run comes to an end. Even though we are playing at home, worst case we lose this one. Best case, we draw or win this game. If we draw, our unbeaten run continues. If we win, our unbeaten run continues. But being realistic, I think we lose here.

February match up against El Salvador, on the road, we win this game easily. El Salvador are dead last in the Octagonal.

Canada in our table we have 16 points right now but with this 3 game window, I have us going 2-1. 2 wins, 1 loss. Giving us 22 points headed into the March window which is the Final window.

Final window we face Costa Rica on March 24th away, Jamaica on March 27th at home and Panama on March 30th away.

Then for Final window Canada we draw with Costa Rica, Jamaica at home we beat them and then against Panama we draw

Altogether giving us 27 points to finish off. That's where I think we end up.

[BrennanFan]

I followed NZ closely at the end of the last cycle as they played my other team, Peru, in the play off. 

They are greater than the sum of their parts. They play as a team. They have a footballing identity. They are very tough to score against. They are experienced in these play off games. 

Their playoff against Peru was much, much closer than I expected it to be. Peru was playing great football in 2017, as much attacking talent as we have now, and NZ got a 0-0 at home in the first leg. In the second leg, Peruvian fans went above and beyond to make them uncomfortable, think Panama in 2012 x 100. Peru scored a goal in each half and that was it, but NZ had their chances. 

NZ will like their chances against us. No away fan shenanigans. No off field BS. They will play the same way they've played for decades, get into a low block and look to score off a set piece.  

[Califax]

2 hours ago, TGAA_Star said:

Against Honduras especially on the road I see us winning that game easily given how disappointing the Hondurans have been in qualifying thus far

Against USA, this is the only game that worries me. Because I think this is the game where we finally lose and our unbeaten run comes to an end. Even though we are playing at home, worst case we lose this one. Best case, we draw or win this game. If we draw, our unbeaten run continues. If we win, our unbeaten run continues. But being realistic, I think we lose here.

February match up against El Salvador, on the road, we win this game easily. El Salvador are dead last in the Octagonal.

Canada in our table we have 16 points right now but with this 3 game window, I have us going 2-1. 2 wins, 1 loss. Giving us 22 points headed into the March window which is the Final window.

Final window we face Costa Rica on March 24th away, Jamaica on March 27th at home and Panama on March 30th away.

Then for Final window Canada we draw with Costa Rica, Jamaica at home we beat them and then against Panama we draw

Altogether giving us 27 points to finish off. That's where I think we end up.

I like your optimism. 
And though I see a place for it, I am not ready to share it because I - good sir - am a Canadian soccer supporter. 

[theaub]

We could be up 6-0 in the 89th minute in Honduras and I'd still think we would lose 8-6.

[dyslexic nam]

6 minutes ago, theaub said:

We could be up 6-0 in the 89th minute in Honduras and I'd still think we would lose 8-6.

That would be true of the CMNT circa 200X-201X, but I don’t think it still holds.  We just seem mentally tougher.  We fight back when we are down.  We have secured key away results.  As much as the Gold Cup loss to Haiti sucked at the time, I think it was a key part of the evolution of this team and helped build us into a resilient side.  I think we are done seeing the collapses of the past.  

[P-O]

I believe we will set up better in these away games as we don't have to be the aggressor.

 

Our counter set-up is amazing with our speed.

 

1 point @ Honduras, Costa-Rica and Panama wouldn't be a bad result if we win away @Salvador and win at home vs Jamaica.

That is 9 points + maybe a result vs the USA.

I believe 25 points would guarantee it.

 

At best, Panama will get 2 points from USA/Mexico.