Jonathan David

[jhoops__]

The difference is this summer Lille have to move him as he only has 2 seasons left on his deal and you won’t get value on him next summer.   Lille have completely left him out of any promotional kit stuff etc for the first time.  

[InglewoodJack]

None of our players are going to Saudi lol. Our guys are too young and unknown to be worth it. I think if Atiba was 4-5 years younger it would make sense. Maybe a smaller team could offer Steven Vitoria a modest 5M as a depth piece or something. Maybe Adekugbe if he doesn't get much interest to leave Hatyaspor.

18 minutes ago, Ottawafan said:

Players will leave to go there but the bigger question is will players stay? 

If China couldn't make "throw a bunch of money at players and build a league" work, I don't see how Saudi can do it. They want to use this as "sportswashing" which makes sense for a single event that draws the world's attention, but what is the plan here? For people to tune into Saudi soccer week in and week out? European fans are going to watch Saudi teams over their own if both are playing at the same time? North American fans will get up at 6AM for weekday games? Getting to a point where young players are willing to spend 10+ years of their lives living in Saudi Arabia? It just makes no sense in the long term.

[Ruffian]

35 minutes ago, Obinna said:

David to Saudi? 

If David were to move to an inferior league for the money I am sure MLS would offer up as much if not more and I assume David would likely pick MLS.

[frmr]

1 hour ago, Obinna said:

Just wanna say the David move away from Lille is the most agonizing saga ever. This is the 3rd summer where we've speculated and pontificated over and over about where he should go, how he would fit, how much he will go for, etc. It's just annoying to me now. I just want to see him move now to get it over with. It feels very close but still a ways off at the same time. Seeing so many American players make moves makes it even worse. Hell Timothy Weah has even moved on before David. It's getting ridiculous.

Yeah, in a way he's become a prisoner to his price tag. It's fair though, Lille should get a good return on him considering his contributions, but it also makes transfers more complicated.

[Bigandy]

52 minutes ago, Ruffian said:

If David were to move to an inferior league for the money I am sure MLS would offer up as much if not more and I assume David would likely pick MLS.

Theres no chance MLS would pay more. 

Insigne gets 14mil USD a year.
Jota gets 13 mill USD tax free so he pockets more than Insigne does. 

Insigne is a euro cup winner, Jota has 21 goals for celtic. 

the level of insigne is probably closer to firmino who makes 19 million USD tax free.  

He would absolutely make more in saudi

 

[InglewoodJack]

24 minutes ago, Bigandy said:

Theres no chance MLS would pay more. 

Insigne gets 14mil USD a year.
Jota gets 13 mill USD tax free so he pockets more than Insigne does. 

Insigne is a euro cup winner, Jota has 21 goals for celtic. 

the level of insigne is probably closer to firmino who makes 19 million USD tax free.  

He would absolutely make more in saudi

 

He’d make more off sponsorship deals in North America though. Maybe not enough to cover the gap between what Saudi Arabia would offer him, but he’s instantly be one of the faces of the league and get to live close to home Vs. The Middle East.

[costarg]

2 hours ago, Obinna said:

Just wanna say the David move away from Lille is the most agonizing saga ever. This is the 3rd summer where we've speculated and pontificated over and over about where he should go, how he would fit, how much he will go for, etc. It's just annoying to me now. I just want to see him move now to get it over with. It feels very close but still a ways off at the same time. Seeing so many American players make moves makes it even worse. Hell Timothy Weah has even moved on before David. It's getting ridiculous.

This affects me way less than the dual-national threads.  That's where the most stress and agony grows.

Taking a step back, he's playing in a fairly strong league and team, not the strongest, but he's playing and putting up good numbers, that's a great situation.  Still prefer that to him riding the bench at Real Madrid or Chelsea for example.

[Obinna]

26 minutes ago, costarg said:

This affects me way less than the dual-national threads.  That's where the most stress and agony grows.

Taking a step back, he's playing in a fairly strong league and team, not the strongest, but he's playing and putting up good numbers, that's a great situation.  Still prefer that to him riding the bench at Real Madrid or Chelsea for example.

Makes me feel better. I am the opposite by the way. My take is the dual national situation is what it is. I prefer not to get emotionally invested until someone is close to joining. David transferring on the other hand is something I desperately want for the perception of our program to keep growing.

You're right though, no good signing for a Chelsea or Madrid and not playing. 

[Bigandy]

1 hour ago, InglewoodJack said:

He’d make more off sponsorship deals in North America though. Maybe not enough to cover the gap between what Saudi Arabia would offer him, but he’s instantly be one of the faces of the league and get to live close to home Vs. The Middle East.

Oh for sure, but he'd also have to pay taxes in NA, where as in SA he wouldnt.  

Also insigne is making double the next highest paid player. I would imagine not many MLS teams would pay JD 15 mil so he would be in the 7-10 mill range plus sponsorships minus taxes so likely 4-6 million into his bank?  

SA could likely offer 15-20 clear. 

[InglewoodJack]

29 minutes ago, Bigandy said:

Oh for sure, but he'd also have to pay taxes in NA, where as in SA he wouldnt.  

Also insigne is making double the next highest paid player. I would imagine not many MLS teams would pay JD 15 mil so he would be in the 7-10 mill range plus sponsorships minus taxes so likely 4-6 million into his bank?  

SA could likely offer 15-20 clear. 

I wonder what David could actually make. Insigne wasn't ancient when he went to TFC, but he was certainly older and passed his prime. What does a 25-year old Jonathan David at or near his peak command in MLS? I don't think the league has ever had an in prime superstar come to MLS, so I think Insigne's salary is the baseline and I think he could command more.

There's talks of MLS trying to get Pulisic to come home after the 2026 world cup to become the post-Messi face of the league. I'm not sure what that deal looks like, but TFC could offer a similar arrangement for Jonathan David to play at "home" (CF Montreal would be closer to home, but trying to be at least a bit realistic here).

Also at least with Messi, he's getting a cut of the revenue, potential to buy a team, all these other things, and I don't think David would get close to that, but if MLS wants European stars to play in North America, they'd have to give them some sort of off field incentive by leveraging their biggest asset- access to the American market. Just spitballing, but you get David, Pulisic, McKennie, Lozano, Antonio, Larin, Balogun to come to MLS in 2026 and you let them form a consortium to purchase a franchise. It would have to be something like that.

Edited July 20, 2023 by InglewoodJack

[Stoppage Time]

These salaries are becoming obscene. Basic salaries loaded with performance bonuses would be more appropriate. Score 10 goals, get X dollars bonus. Score 15, get Y dollars bonus., and so on. Be a useless, unproductive DP, for example, and earn $0 in bonus money.

Of course, a formula for other positions would need to be put into place - no easy thing.

Yes, football finds the $$$ through sponsors, etc., but sheesh!

[jhoops__]

 

[Bigandy]

43 minutes ago, InglewoodJack said:

I wonder what David could actually make. Insigne wasn't ancient when he went to TFC, but he was certainly older and passed his prime. What does a 25-year old Jonathan David at or near his peak command in MLS? I don't think the league has ever had an in prime superstar come to MLS, so I think Insigne's salary is the baseline and I think he could command more.

There's talks of MLS trying to get Pulisic to come home after the 2026 world cup to become the post-Messi face of the league. I'm not sure what that deal looks like, but TFC could offer a similar arrangement for Jonathan David to play at "home" (CF Montreal would be closer to home, but trying to be at least a bit realistic here).

Also at least with Messi, he's getting a cut of the revenue, potential to buy a team, all these other things, and I don't think David would get close to that, but if MLS wants European stars to play in North America, they'd have to give them some sort of off field incentive by leveraging their biggest asset- access to the American market. Just spitballing, but you get David, Pulisic, McKennie, Lozano, Antonio, Larin, Balogun to come to MLS in 2026 and you let them form a consortium to purchase a franchise. It would have to be something like that.

I think Giovinco was 27? He was around the 6-7 mil but so were older superstars like kaka, lampard etc. There really wasnt a substantial difference in wages because he was younger. I cant imagine David would command double what every DP in the league makes (minus messi and crew, and insigne). 

Yes david is in his prime, but an aging kaka could arguably be better or at least very similar. It's not like David will be twice the player. For him to command double the high end DP fee would be a bit absurd to me. Now add in that these older guys have bigger star power to help offset the cost of their wages. Basically, playing ability is slightly in Davids favour, but star power is slightly not in davids favour. 

Busquets is only getting 10 million and alba 1.6m. I just dont see how david would be paid 50% more than busquets.  

 

[kacbru]

They'll build a statue for David in 15 years when he retires at Lille and our kids/grandkids will still be posting transfer speculation here.

[Kadenge]

[InglewoodJack]

14 minutes ago, Bigandy said:

I think Giovinco was 27? He was around the 6-7 mil but so were older superstars like kaka, lampard etc. There really wasnt a substantial difference in wages because he was younger. I cant imagine David would command double what every DP in the league makes (minus messi and crew, and insigne). 

Yes david is in his prime, but an aging kaka could arguably be better or at least very similar. It's not like David will be twice the player. For him to command double the high end DP fee would be a bit absurd to me. Now add in that these older guys have bigger star power to help offset the cost of their wages. Basically, playing ability is slightly in Davids favour, but star power is slightly not in davids favour. 

Busquets is only getting 10 million and alba 1.6m. I just dont see how david would be paid 50% more than busquets.  

 

All of what I’m saying is operating under the assumption that MLS gets to a point where they’re looking to bring home the best domestic players in their prime to become the new faces of their league, and in order to do that, they’d have to offer them North American (NBA/MLB) money and because you can’t just pay an MLS player $25M unless he’s Messi, they’ll have to sweeten the deal with investment or marketing opportunities which I think will always be more lucrative here than in the Middle East in the long run. 
 

For Busqets- who I am shocked is making $10M compared to Alba’s $1.6M, a big reason they are “only” making that much money is because they’re at the end of their careers and want to play with Messi and maybe establish themselves in the American market. I’m talking about David coming to MLS in his prime where not only will he be the face of his team but its best player, and it’s hard for me to believe that TFC can pay Insigne, a good Italian player who only came here when opportunities back home started drying up, $14M, and not pay at least that to ESPN’s 10th best striker who is probably more famous in Canada than either of the Italians are. 
 

MLS owners have access to the money and marketing opportunities to go toe to toe with Saudi Arabia. Not sure if they’d want to, but then again, KSA isn’t exactly getting players of David’s age coming to play there either. 

[Cicero]

2 hours ago, InglewoodJack said:

MLS owners have access to the money and marketing opportunities to go toe to toe with Saudi Arabia. Not sure if they’d want to, but then again, KSA isn’t exactly getting players of David’s age coming to play there either. 

KSA is a totally artificial market, like China was a few years back. There is no way actual team revenue is supporting these acquisitions and salaries. Most MLS teams cannot pay these salaries if they expect to even come close to breaking even. This Messi acquisition makes a farce of supposed fair markets for players in MLS, but its structure has always been setup to allow this sort of thing.

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

8 hours ago, InglewoodJack said:

None of our players are going to Saudi lol. Our guys are too young and unknown to be worth it. I think if Atiba was 4-5 years younger it would make sense. Maybe a smaller team could offer Steven Vitoria a modest 5M as a depth piece or something. Maybe Adekugbe if he doesn't get much interest to leave Hatyaspor.

If China couldn't make "throw a bunch of money at players and build a league" work, I don't see how Saudi can do it. They want to use this as "sportswashing" which makes sense for a single event that draws the world's attention, but what is the plan here? For people to tune into Saudi soccer week in and week out? European fans are going to watch Saudi teams over their own if both are playing at the same time? North American fans will get up at 6AM for weekday games? Getting to a point where young players are willing to spend 10+ years of their lives living in Saudi Arabia? It just makes no sense in the long term.

I think the Saudi teams will have a few advantages over China.

Run the games slightly earlier or later (People in England catch Portuguese,  Spanish, and Italian games that way). 

If you were from the Mediterranean or had your family there, it really is not a hard commute to the Middle East if you are rich.  

We will see.

Can't say I am rooting for them.

[Unnamed Trialist]

Related to comments about David, sources say he is being paid under 2 million a year right now. If he goes for a 50 million euro transfer, his signing bonuses will be likely more than that. And anyone taking him will be paying him three times that.

 

[InglewoodJack]

13 hours ago, Cicero said:

KSA is a totally artificial market, like China was a few years back. There is no way actual team revenue is supporting these acquisitions and salaries. Most MLS teams cannot pay these salaries if they expect to even come close to breaking even. This Messi acquisition makes a farce of supposed fair markets for players in MLS, but its structure has always been setup to allow this sort of thing.

I don't completely disagree about the Messi acquisition, but I think at least MLS has a plausible reason to believe that their investments will pay off in the long run. MLS clearly believes that this is their shot to bring soccer into the American mainstream and to bring MLS into the conversation of top world soccer leagues. Beckham to LA was a carnival trick, and to a degree so is Messi to Miami, but we now have some MLS teams drawing well into the 25k+ and even into the 30k/night attendance, you have owners investing half a billion on new franchises, not saying it will happen, but by the 2026 world cup, it's possible soccer blows past the NHL in north america and there's a possibility that it eclipses baseball within a generation. You pay a player 15M/season in 2023 in the hopes that your team is worth 3B in 2035 and at least in America, I buy that as a possibility.

In Saudi Arabia, I just don't see it. I guess the entire middle east could realign to make KSA their prime media market and have them shift away from other leagues, that's a lot of potential eyeballs, but I think Saudi soccer's ceiling is being a regional curiosity like the Monaco Grand Prix, Tour de France, Kentucky Derby, where there's a certain cachet and attending those matches is a signifier of wealth, not of fandom, but nothing more than that. If I was buying into the long term plan of the league, I'd buy into MLS, not KSA.

[costarg]

15 hours ago, Cicero said:

KSA is a totally artificial market, like China was a few years back. There is no way actual team revenue is supporting these acquisitions and salaries. Most MLS teams cannot pay these salaries if they expect to even come close to breaking even. This Messi acquisition makes a farce of supposed fair markets for players in MLS, but its structure has always been setup to allow this sort of thing.

This whole Saudi League thing is mind boggling.  Originally I thought Rondaldo would go there as a travelling circus, people with money would go see him and the King would have his jester/pet entertain him.  But now that a few other stars have made the move (mostly mercenaries), it's soo strange.  The league is even more unbalanced than the early days of MLS.  The Saudi family obviously doesn't care about any kind of FFP or revenue, they can employ and run the entire EPL with no revenue for decades and not run out of money.  Still mind boggling that they took this up as a project and hobby.  I thought they would've just bought EU teams and play their dick measuring contests and puppet games there.

[Bigandy]

40 minutes ago, costarg said:

This whole Saudi League thing is mind boggling.  Originally I thought Rondaldo would go there as a travelling circus, people with money would go see him and the King would have his jester/pet entertain him.  But now that a few other stars have made the move (mostly mercenaries), it's soo strange.  The league is even more unbalanced than the early days of MLS.  The Saudi family obviously doesn't care about any kind of FFP or revenue, they can employ and run the entire EPL with no revenue for decades and not run out of money.  Still mind boggling that they took this up as a project and hobby.  I thought they would've just bought EU teams and play their dick measuring contests and puppet games there.

Right! In china buying superstars didnt work, or even the Anzhi days in russia. 

However, I wonder if this is different. Theres much deeper pockets, many more and better players all going in one transfer window, and coaches are being brought in as well. Does anyone have any thoughts on the long term viability of the saudi league. 

[Ruffian]

24 minutes ago, Bigandy said:

Right! In china buying superstars didnt work, or even the Anzhi days in russia. 

However, I wonder if this is different. Theres much deeper pockets, many more and better players all going in one transfer window, and coaches are being brought in as well. Does anyone have any thoughts on the long term viability of the saudi league. 

There is money to maintain it longer but who is going to watch? MLS and China have a large viewer base. Maybe they create a Middle Eastern League?

[Aird25]

3 minutes ago, Ruffian said:

who is going to watch?

I suspect they're hoping a lot of people from a lot of different places. 

[Unnamed Trialist]

3 hours ago, InglewoodJack said:

I don't completely disagree about the Messi acquisition, but I think at least MLS has a plausible reason to believe that their investments will pay off in the long run. MLS clearly believes that this is their shot to bring soccer into the American mainstream and to bring MLS into the conversation of top world soccer leagues. Beckham to LA was a carnival trick, and to a degree so is Messi to Miami, but we now have some MLS teams drawing well into the 25k+ and even into the 30k/night attendance, you have owners investing half a billion on new franchises, not saying it will happen, but by the 2026 world cup, it's possible soccer blows past the NHL in north america and there's a possibility that it eclipses baseball within a generation. You pay a player 15M/season in 2023 in the hopes that your team is worth 3B in 2035 and at least in America, I buy that as a possibility.

In Saudi Arabia, I just don't see it. I guess the entire middle east could realign to make KSA their prime media market and have them shift away from other leagues, that's a lot of potential eyeballs, but I think Saudi soccer's ceiling is being a regional curiosity like the Monaco Grand Prix, Tour de France, Kentucky Derby, where there's a certain cachet and attending those matches is a signifier of wealth, not of fandom, but nothing more than that. If I was buying into the long term plan of the league, I'd buy into MLS, not KSA.

Very good post but I must have misunderstood, the Monaco Grand Prix and the Tour de France are not "regional curiosities". They are both massive global events, but I'm sure you know that. 

Just asking for some better examples. Maybe darts at Alexandra Palace.

The Tour de France and even Monaco are not elite events for fans either, don't be fooled by the ones sitting on those boats.

Edited July 21, 2023 by Unnamed Trialist