General Discussion on CMNT

[InglewoodJack]

1 hour ago, RS said:

The USMNT have a ton of potential but are still an incredibly young team that lacks the experience and know-how to truly compete with the world's best at this time. They may get there as the core continues to play at top level European club environments, but it's too early  to write this generation off.

As for the Leafs: They are a contender because they've topped 100 points in the past four 82-game NHL seasons and were on a 100+ point pace in one of the two COVID-shortened seasons. It has nothing to do with what the fans say.

The US breezes through concacaf just like the Leafs breeze through the regular season, and regardless of playoff collapses happening like clockwork, just like the US loses to good opposition when they travel abroad, the fans will still tell you that “this is their year”. The Leafs can point to 100 point seasons as a reason to believe it’s their time just like the US can point to their #15 (?) FIFA ranking, but when the games that matte happen, both teams fumble it. 
 

I won’t write their team off, they have a ton of great players who are still developing and I’d love that amount of talent here. That said, I think even with a fully optimized team, they have roughly the same shot as we do to go as far next World Cup as a lot of people seem to think they’re able to.

[costarg]

25 minutes ago, InglewoodJack said:

The US breezes through concacaf just like the Leafs breeze through the regular season, and regardless of playoff collapses happening like clockwork, just like the US loses to good opposition when they travel abroad, the fans will still tell you that “this is their year”. The Leafs can point to 100 point seasons as a reason to believe it’s their time just like the US can point to their #15 (?) FIFA ranking, but when the games that matte happen, both teams fumble it. 

I hate to derail, but can't help myself - I promise to bring it back to soccer, it's related. 

The Leafs case is easy to explain, NHL regular season and playoffs are two completely different things.  The only constants are the teams and the equipment.  The season is regularly played at 50%-80% effort.  The goal is to make the playoffs, ideally with home-ice advantage if it's attainable without risking too many injuries or burnout.  No player is going even close to 90% for several games in a row, the season is just too long and physical.  The players and teams keep something in the tank for the playoffs.  Playoffs, different rules apply along with the different tempo and effort.  Leafs are an incredibly talented team, they're just not built for the playoffs.  It's a different kind of hockey.  Doesn't mean they aren't successful, just a different kind of success which is still very good. 

Back to soccer... even though the MLS is similar in a way, too many teams make the playoffs and the season is long.  It does not require the same level of intensity.  It's a different kind of recovery from 2 soccer games in 4 nights vs 2 hockey games in 4 nights.  

All that being said, this is exactly why I prefer the EU model of separating the playoffs from the regular season.  Make the playoffs a "cup tournament" and have relegation.  It's the only way to have everyone show up every game.  NFL is similar in that sense where every single game and play matters.  There is no easy game and the winners are the fans. 

[RS]

1 hour ago, InglewoodJack said:

The Leafs can point to 100 point seasons as a reason to believe it’s their time just like the US can point to their #15 (?) FIFA ranking, but when the games that matte happen, both teams fumble it. 

When has this generation of USMNT fumbled it? They were too green at the World Cup but have won everything else available to them?

I think you're trying to stretch your (originally flawed) Leafs analogy too far on this one. Neither are a result of their fans, by the way.

[InglewoodJack]

1 minute ago, RS said:

When has this generation of USMNT fumbled it? They were too green at the World Cup but have won everything else available to them?

I think you're trying to stretch your (originally flawed) Leafs analogy too far on this one. Neither are a result of their fans, by the way.

No they haven't- they lost an at-home gold cup semi to Panama. They could barely beat us in the quarters. They couldn't beat Saudi Arabia at home, they were as outclassed against Germany as we were against Japan, etc. Fumbled is admittedly probably not the right word. Both the Leafs and USMNT are celebrated as fait accompli champions- leafs are obviously going to win a cup because look at the players! look at that regular season record! and the US is going to contend for the next world cup because those players!! concacaf kings!!! I mean, maybe Auston Matthews will score another 60 and lift a cup some year, just like the US team is so talented that they should come away with some non-Concacaf success at some point, we just haven't seen it yet.

Now, that's not to say we're in any better of a place or anything. We got punked by opposing fans because we went around as the concacaf champions for finishing first in qualifying and then went on a very slow decline, losing all these games against non-concacaf opponents with good talent. The US are rated 15th in the world, and until they start picking off opponents around that level, their youth and success from playing nearly every single game at home doesn't move me like it does others.

1 hour ago, costarg said:

I hate to derail, but can't help myself - I promise to bring it back to soccer, it's related. 

The Leafs case is easy to explain, NHL regular season and playoffs are two completely different things.  The only constants are the teams and the equipment.  The season is regularly played at 50%-80% effort.  The goal is to make the playoffs, ideally with home-ice advantage if it's attainable without risking too many injuries or burnout.  No player is going even close to 90% for several games in a row, the season is just too long and physical.  The players and teams keep something in the tank for the playoffs.  Playoffs, different rules apply along with the different tempo and effort.  Leafs are an incredibly talented team, they're just not built for the playoffs.  It's a different kind of hockey.  Doesn't mean they aren't successful, just a different kind of success which is still very good. 

Back to soccer... even though the MLS is similar in a way, too many teams make the playoffs and the season is long.  It does not require the same level of intensity.  It's a different kind of recovery from 2 soccer games in 4 nights vs 2 hockey games in 4 nights.  

All that being said, this is exactly why I prefer the EU model of separating the playoffs from the regular season.  Make the playoffs a "cup tournament" and have relegation.  It's the only way to have everyone show up every game.  NFL is similar in that sense where every single game and play matters.  There is no easy game and the winners are the fans. 

At this point, I'm stretching an analogy, but I think there's some similarity between teams that are very good in the regular season and teams that are very good when playing opponents from within the same conference, especially such a mixed bag like CONCACAF. Like, in terms of prep, is a March midweek match in a non world cup year against say, Grenada, all that different than when the Leafs are playing Columbus on a Monday night in January?

That said, I think if we want to bring this thread off onto another tangent, I think that North American sports, MLS in particular, are going to have to decide how they want to view regular seasons moving forward. MLS season is way too long and the playoffs go by quickly, and even then, to your point, everyone makes it; I mean hell, there's no way in hell I should be keeping an eye on scores to see if I'll be going to a Montreal playoff game- we should be nowhere *near* a playoff spot, and yet, some poor team is going to have to waste jet fuel and practice time to come and beat us before moving on. In general though, across other sports, leagues need to decide if the fans and players are right in thinking the regular season doesn't matter, and so you cut the number of games or expand the playoffs (or implement some sort of cup), or you decide that the European model is the correct one and you make the season champs mean something and you figure out some other way to crown a knock out tournament champion.

Would love to see the NHL move to a model where you play a 60 game regular season and then have all 16 playoff teams funnel into a Champions League with the best clubs in Europe. NHL teams would win pretty much every year, but European teams are good enough that their best would bounce a couple NHL teams during the process.

[RS]

9 minutes ago, InglewoodJack said:

No they haven't- they lost an at-home gold cup semi to Panama. They could barely beat us in the quarters. They couldn't beat Saudi Arabia at home, they were as outclassed against Germany as we were against Japan, etc.

The Americans rolled out a B team to the Gold Cup a week or two after dominating with their A team at the Nations League semis and final. Given the schedule congestion I don't hold that against them.

And are we really holding friendlies against them now? They're clearly a work in progress but their floor and ceiling are the highest they've ever been (and far higher than ours).

10 minutes ago, InglewoodJack said:

Fumbled is admittedly probably not the right word. Both the Leafs and USMNT are celebrated as fait accompli champions- leafs are obviously going to win a cup because look at the players! look at that regular season record! and the US is going to contend for the next world cup because those players!! concacaf kings!!! I mean, maybe Auston Matthews will score another 60 and lift a cup some year, just like the US team is so talented that they should come away with some non-Concacaf success at some point, we just haven't seen it yet.

This is just silly.

Literally no one celebrates the Leafs as fait accompli. Certainly not the fan base that has stuck by them through this cup drought (and some of the worst teams in NHL history in the 1970s/80s and the lost decade between 2005-2015). They are seen as contenders now because that's what they are. That doesn't mean they are going to win anything, just that they are in a much better position to do so than most of the league.

In a sport that only cares about a single trophy, the odds are stacked much more against the Leafs than they are against the USMNT, who are full of potential and have already won on the regional level and will have several more chances to do so again before this current group ages out.

But the ultimate prize is success outside the region, which no one has celebrated as fait accompli because it hasn't happened.

I hate defending the Americans but it's silly to write them off because their ridiculously young golden generation has yet to make waves at the World Cup or the... well there is no other avenue for a CONCACAF team to announce themselves on the world scene except for the upcoming Copa America.

[InglewoodJack]

1 hour ago, RS said:

The Americans rolled out a B team to the Gold Cup a week or two after dominating with their A team at the Nations League semis and final. Given the schedule congestion I don't hold that against them.

And are we really holding friendlies against them now? They're clearly a work in progress but their floor and ceiling are the highest they've ever been (and far higher than ours).

This is just silly.

Literally no one celebrates the Leafs as fait accompli. Certainly not the fan base that has stuck by them through this cup drought (and some of the worst teams in NHL history in the 1970s/80s and the lost decade between 2005-2015). They are seen as contenders now because that's what they are. That doesn't mean they are going to win anything, just that they are in a much better position to do so than most of the league.

In a sport that only cares about a single trophy, the odds are stacked much more against the Leafs than they are against the USMNT, who are full of potential and have already won on the regional level and will have several more chances to do so again before this current group ages out.

But the ultimate prize is success outside the region, which no one has celebrated as fait accompli because it hasn't happened.

I hate defending the Americans but it's silly to write them off because their ridiculously young golden generation has yet to make waves at the World Cup or the... well there is no other avenue for a CONCACAF team to announce themselves on the world scene except for the upcoming Copa America.

I’m not writing them off, but the way they’re spoken about it’s how they’re pulling away from concacaf, going from being a regional power to a world class team, etc. I say let’s wait until they prove all of that before crowning them. 

[RS]

1 hour ago, InglewoodJack said:

I’m not writing them off, but the way they’re spoken about it’s how they’re pulling away from concacaf, going from being a regional power to a world class team, etc. I say let’s wait until they prove all of that before crowning them. 

Here’s the thing about Concacaf: The U.S. (or any team) can pull away and still not be a world-class team. The gap is that big.

[Aird25]

54 minutes ago, RS said:

Here’s the thing about Concacaf: The U.S. (or any team) can pull away and still not be a world-class team. The gap is that big.

What does World Class mean?

[Obinna]

1 hour ago, Aird25 said:

What does World Class mean?

It's so subjective but I think World Class players tend to be the star players on:

• Top 6 clubs in EPL
• Top 3 clubs in La Liga
• Top 4 clubs in Seria A
• Bayern (or maybe Dortmund)
• PSG

Obviously there is nuance, like rare cases were a player is demonstrating he is World Class but hasn't yet gone to one of those teams or use to play with one of those teams (Messi is World Class still). Obviously being a star player on one of those teams doesn't necessarily make you world class (Son is a star player for Spurs, who are "typically" a top 6 club, but not sure he is World Class, but he's pretty close if he's not). I will put out the disclaimer that top clubs in these leagues is obviously subject to change, it's more about the strength of club then strictly where a team finishes - and most importantly what a player is doing with that club (and with his national team also).

Edited October 17, 2023 by Obinna

[gigi riva]

speaking of the USMT they have not played a game away from the USA since  Qatar last November

[RS]

3 hours ago, Aird25 said:

What does World Class mean?

A genuine threat to win a World Cup.

[Shway]

58 minutes ago, RS said:

A genuine threat to win a World Cup.

This means the favourites to win, which is very few teams... Brazil, France, Argentina.

So Germany, England, Spain, and Portugal aren't World class?

I think that statement is very arbitrary. Especially when anything can happen in a tournament (see Morrocco).

[CanadaFan123]

6 hours ago, Shway said:

This means the favourites to win, which is very few teams... Brazil, France, Argentina.

So Germany, England, Spain, and Portugal aren't World class?

I think that statement is very arbitrary. Especially when anything can happen in a tournament (see Morrocco).

A threat to win includes, but is not necessarily, a favourite. So this would include all teams you’ve listed and a few more I.e. Croatia, Belgium. 

Edited October 17, 2023 by CanadaFan123

[RS]

6 hours ago, Shway said:

This means the favourites to win, which is very few teams... Brazil, France, Argentina.

So Germany, England, Spain, and Portugal aren't World class?

I think that statement is very arbitrary. Especially when anything can happen in a tournament (see Morrocco).

@CanadaFan123 explained it best.

[Obinna]

12 hours ago, gigi riva said:

speaking of the USMT they have not played a game away from the USA since  Qatar last November

They need to eventually fix this if they want to get better. 

[Unnamed Trialist]

11 hours ago, RS said:

A genuine threat to win a World Cup.

World Class is exactly that: you go into a WC with a quarter final minimum in your head, and you believe you have a real chance of winning it. 

Right now, there are the teams that have won the WC, then Belgium, Netherlands, Croatia and Portugal as they are now; and then, depending on their results, another top team in South America, maybe Uruguay at moments.

So the 7 winners excluding Uruguay, then 4-5 more teams depending on the moment.

Mexico has a dismal knockout record at WCs, no team outside of South America or Europe has any real chance of winning.

[RS]

40 minutes ago, Obinna said:

They need to eventually fix this if they want to get better. 

Agreed, but there's no real incentive for them to do so until after the World Cup. Every major tournament they'll play in between now and the end of 2026 (Gold Cup, Nations League*, Copa America, World Cup) will be on home soil for them.

So they might as well keep playing at home and try to build up their home-field advantage even more than it already is.

* Obviously the NL group stage /quarterfinal games are home-away but the semis and finals will almost certainly be in the U.S. again.

[Obinna]

46 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

World Class is exactly that: you go into a WC with a quarter final minimum in your head, and you believe you have a real chance of winning it. 

Right now, there are the teams that have won the WC, then Belgium, Netherlands, Croatia and Portugal as they are now; and then, depending on their results, another top team in South America, maybe Uruguay at moments.

So the 7 winners excluding Uruguay, then 4-5 more teams depending on the moment.

Mexico has a dismal knockout record at WCs, no team outside of South America or Europe has any real chance of winning.

I agree with this but I wonder how do you account for a team like Japan, because despite their form their historical results haven't matched the likes of Netherlands, Croatia, Portugal, or even Belgium - or Uruguay for that matter (semi-finalist in 2010).

Japan on form are definitely world class at the moment. They beat Tunisa today to make it 6/6 now since their loss to Colombia back in March. They beat Gemany twice, Spain once, and lost in a shootout to Croatia all in the span of 12 months. They are going to steamroll their competition from now to next summer, as they'll be back playing in their region again. By June 11 it's possibly they'll have a winning streak of 20 games if they win Asian Cup 24 and go undefeated in WCQ.

[Unnamed Trialist]

1 hour ago, Obinna said:

I agree with this but I wonder how do you account for a team like Japan, because despite their form their historical results haven't matched the likes of Netherlands, Croatia, Portugal, or even Belgium - or Uruguay for that matter (semi-finalist in 2010).

Japan on form are definitely world class at the moment. They beat Tunisa today to make it 6/6 now since their loss to Colombia back in March. They beat Gemany twice, Spain once, and lost in a shootout to Croatia all in the span of 12 months. They are going to steamroll their competition from now to next summer, as they'll be back playing in their region again. By June 11 it's possibly they'll have a winning streak of 20 games if they win Asian Cup 24 and go undefeated in WCQ.

They did not deserve to beat Spain and IMO are vulnerable on a lot of levels. They are not even reigning Asian Cup champs. They won three of four from 92 to 2004, then have won one of the last four. If anything the power balances are evening out in the region. Japan is not clearly the best team in Asia even.

[Obinna]

4 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

They did not deserve to beat Spain and IMO are vulnerable on a lot of levels. They are not even reigning Asian Cup champs. They won three of four from 92 to 2004, then have won one of the last four. If anything the power balances are evening out in the region. Japan is not clearly the best team in Asia even.

Who is better than Japan in Asia right now?

[Obinna]

6 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

They did not deserve to beat Spain and IMO are vulnerable on a lot of levels. They are not even reigning Asian Cup champs. They won three of four from 92 to 2004, then have won one of the last four. If anything the power balances are evening out in the region. Japan is not clearly the best team in Asia even.

So they have won 4 of the last 8 then? What other Asian team has managed that?

[Unnamed Trialist]

1 minute ago, Obinna said:

Who is better than Japan in Asia right now?

They are first, true, based on good friendlies results and surely that win vs. Spain at the WC. 

Basically we could say Iran, Korea and Australia are comparable. 

And none of them are anywhere near to World Class status as defined by "legitimate candidate to win the WC". 

[Obinna]

1 minute ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

They are first, true, based on good friendlies results and surely that win vs. Spain at the WC. 

Basically we could say Iran, Korea and Australia are comparable. 

And none of them are anywhere near to World Class status as defined by "legitimate candidate to win the WC". 

Fair enough and I see it that way too, but they have to be at the top of that Asian pile, if not historically then currently.

Also, at the rate things are going, they could be a legitimate candidate, no? They are at least going to be a dark horse in the way Netherlands, Croatia and Portugal typically are.

I guess the question is, will teams figure them out? A lot of time between now and 26.

[InglewoodJack]

Yeah, I think World Class are teams that usually have a good shot at winning at least one knockout world cup game, or at the very least, teams that have a realistic chance of beating teams at the top. I think teams like Morocco, Korea, Uruguay, Japan are at the very cusp of "world class". My rough qualifier for "world class" is- if I bet on this team to win a game against a world cup contender, do I have a realistic chance of winning that bet? I certainly wouldn't put a dollar on the US beating Germany. But if I put some action down on Japan against Spain, it wouldn't be a historical upset for me to win that wager.

Edited October 17, 2023 by InglewoodJack

[Unnamed Trialist]

Just now, Obinna said:

Fair enough and I see it that way too, but they have to be at the top of that Asian pile, if not historically then currently.

Also, at the rate things are going, they could be a legitimate candidate, no? They are at least going to be a dark horse in the way Netherlands, Croatia and Portugal typically are.

I guess the question is, will teams figure them out? A lot of time between now and 26.

For me Netherlands probably deserve a World Cup, the only team that I feel has really deserved it in more than one generation and has never won.

Portugal don't have quite the depth. But have had world class top players, from Eusebio to Cristiano. Japan is missing pieces too, but has never had truly world class players, say top 20 consistently in Ballon d'Or. They had Nakata, perhaps unfairly forgotten, and Nakamura. Certainly not at that world-beating level. Maybe I am biased, after they fell apart vs. Belgium in Russia 2019, they lacked CBs, keeping, physicality overall, and leadership on the pitch.

The only Asian players on the shortlist for this Ballon d'Or is Kim Min-Jae.

They've never gotten past the round of 16 at a World Cup, even S Korea has done better. I would say they are comparable to Mexico in these last 3 decades. 

Am I wrong that some here are touting Japan as a way of softening our loss to them?