CPL General

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

9 hours ago, Rheo said:

Spectator's early story https://www.thespec.com/news-story/7502176-city-of-hamilton-won-t-talk-soccer-until-stadium-lawsuit-resolved/

..."The Tiger-Cats' soccer option...expired in May 2016," ..."As of today, the City of Hamilton has decided not to pursue any business related to soccer at TimHortons Field until the stadium litigation is resolved,"...Coun. Sam Merulla said the city won't engage in negotiations with any party that's also a legal opponent. "We're just basically conforming to our policy,"...

 

Think we can safely assume that means no 2018 launch and that it even places a major question mark over 2019, unless McMaster's stadium could be an option?

...Merulla referred to that litigation as "suspended animation" but declined to elaborate more...

Edited August 15, 2017 by BringBackTheBlizzard

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

This old story begs the question of how they ever thought it was going to be OK for 2018 where CanPL is concerned, but suggests the issue should be resolved in time for 2019:

http://3downnation.com/2017/03/24/hamilton-wont-bid-grey-cup-stadium-litigation-settled/

Posted on March 24, 2017 by Drew Edwards // 22 Comments

The City of Hamilton will not partner with Hamilton Tiger-Cats in a Grey Cup bid until the lawsuits surrounding the construction of Tim Hortons Field have been resolved.

“We can’t do any business with them when there’s litigation outstanding,” city councillor Sam Merulla said Friday....

Nonetheless, Mitchell remains hopeful that the team and the city will be in position to make a push for the game by this time next year.

“Our focus is on 2019, which is an exciting year because it coincides with the 150 anniversary of Hamilton Tiger-Cats franchise,” Mitchell said. “We would be thrilled to bid and ultimately host the Grey Cup that year.”

...

“I think that’s a great idea. I really support it,” Merulla said. “And it ties in nicely to the challenges we’re facing with litigation. It should be resolved well before then.”

Edit: This more recent story doesn't sound quite so upbeat:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/stadium-lawsuit-continues-1.4180736

Edited August 15, 2017 by BringBackTheBlizzard

[Ansem]

9 hours ago, harrycoyster said:

Even if MLS tripled their contract they wouldn't have 1/9th the contract the NBA has. 

they wont triple their contract deal

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

Not sure how you can be so confident either way given I am pretty sure you don't have a fully functional crystal ball at your disposal. Let's hope they do or perhaps even exceed that, because that will mean that the upward trend where domestic pro soccer in North America is concerned is continuing and all the boats in the water by that point can be expected to rise with that tide.

[Rheo]

9 hours ago, matty said:

I'm gonna say this again: they just just finished reviewing applications! 2 weeks ago they reached the publically stated 90 days they needed to do so. Can we stop acting like omg it's a failure.

Do people actually believe  they'd announce everything within 24 hours of 90days?

Hey now be careful.  You're using rational thought and common sense

[Ansem]

2 hours ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

Not sure how you can be so confident either way given I am pretty sure you don't have a fully functional crystal ball at your disposal. Let's hope they do or perhaps even exceed that, because that will mean that the upward trend where domestic pro soccer in North America is concerned is continuing and all the boats in the water by that point can be expected to rise with that tide.

Funny how I'm the one being accused of having a "crystal" ball but not the other guy who claim the contract will triple when their viewership is still very low and decreasing.

I don't think Canadian Soccer is dependent on MLS TV performance

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

59 minutes ago, Rheo said:

Hey now be careful.  You're using rational thought and common sense

Only major quibble would be that 24 hours and 2 weeks are not quite the same thing, that is if you accept the idea that it would take that long to do due dilligence on applications that they probably would have already had in place well before the CSA AGM. An alternative scenario would be that they thought that they needed 60 to 90 days to get the Hamilton stadium litigation and Halifax pop-up issues fully resolved and to get Edmonton and Ottawa on board? At that point you only need to conjure up one more team (my money is on K/W) to have a soft launch with Saskatoon and Fraser Valley as #7 and #8 in the pipeline. That would have been a credible scenario a couple of months ago even if it was no slam dunk.

Edited August 15, 2017 by BringBackTheBlizzard

[Rheo]

I just meant there's lots of jumping to conclusions/assumptions on both the ultra pro CPL and the skeptical CPL folks here and on twitter.  Both sides generally make valid points but personally I'm not in the rush that some are.  When the league is ready they'll go forward.  I'm patient enough for 2019 if 2018 isn't feasible.  I like the passion people are showing but just starting to get tired of lots of the crap, no offense meant to anyone lol.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

Would agree that they still have at least another year before it would start to fizzle out like CUSL eventually did, so it's way too early to go into post-mortem mode. For there to be more clarity on what is going on, we really need somebody like the CBC's Fifth Estate to investigate the Ticats stadium litigation angle so we have a clearer picture on whether pro soccer is simply a small pawn in a much larger financial game.

[RickC]

If only jumping to conclusions was an Olympic sport, but we'd still argue whether it should be part of the summer or winter games. There could be many different angles involved here, but I think the most likely is how it reads on the surface. There is litigation involving the TiCats, the City, and others. The TiCats want CPL and Grey Cup. The City wants the litigation dealt with. The City is twisting the TiCats' arm to get them to the table. 

The TiCats took an approach like this when the PanAm stadium was being planned. They would leave Hamilton unless it was the Ivor Wynne site. The City wanted the stadium as part of the waterfront redevelopment. The stadium would not have been feasible without the TiCats as a major tenant, so the TiCats won. Now, the City's playing tough. Next announcement? The TiCats are partnering with the City to deal with the litigation.

I've not lived in Hamilton for a long time but I hope it's not a return to the dysfunctional Councils of the past. Like the one that allowed Gore Park to be destroyed, I mean renovated.

[ironcub14]

I've always thought that the t-shirts Jamie made was hella awesome, except that the 2018 on the shirt was way too optimistic, even 6-9 months ago.

We are talking about a completely brand new league with 6 teams at minimum, and we've got only 10 games for the WC 2026 anyways; it's far more important to get the launch of the league right with careful preparations than trying to rush to a mid-season launch date.

Edited August 15, 2017 by ironcub14

[Kent]

1 hour ago, ironcub14 said:

I've always thought that the t-shirts Jamie made was hella awesome, except that the 2018 on the shirt was way too optimistic, even 6-9 months ago.

Yeah, I was unsure of buying such a shirt so early on, and the 2018 sealed the deal for me. I want to always look on a thing like that with pride, not have it be a sad reminder that the league didn't launch in 2018, or perhaps never launched at all.

[harrycoyster]

3 hours ago, Ansem said:

Funny how I'm the one being accused of having a "crystal" ball but not the other guy who claim the contract will triple when their viewership is still very low and decreasing.

1) MLS viewership is up this season from this point last season.

2) To suggest that the contract won't be higher due to the ratings not increasing by all that much shows a complete lack of knowledge of the TV market. We've seen league TV deals skyrocket recently despite lower ratings across the board. 

3) Do you know what the rights to LAFC games are going to be worth alone? That team is going to be worth it's weight in gold to the TV deal. The LAFC v LA Galaxy games will likely be worth more than any game not called MLS Cup. Young male Californians are basically the holy grail of advertising metrics. The Galaxy get around $7 million a year ($5.5 million English, ~$2 million Spanish) from TV contracts just for the local broadcast of games not shown of UniMas, ESPN, FS1 or Univision. And they are the most valuable team towards the national deal.

4) Just as Adidas overpaid to lock down their MLS deal to prevent UA or Nike from making an offer, TV deals are inflated because of competition. Fox is not going to want to lose the property to Disney and Disney is not going to want to lose the property to NBC.

Edited August 15, 2017 by harrycoyster

[harrycoyster]

Double Post 

Edited August 15, 2017 by harrycoyster

[Ansem]

22 minutes ago, harrycoyster said:

1) MLS viewership is up this season from this point last season.

2) To suggest that the contract won't be higher due to the ratings not increasing by all that much shows a complete lack of knowledge of the TV market. We've seen league TV deals skyrocket recently despite lower ratings across the board. 

3) Do you know what the rights to LAFC games are going to be worth alone? That team is going to be worth it's weight in gold to the TV deal. The LAFC v LA Galaxy games will likely be worth more than any game not called MLS Cup. Young male Californians are basically the holy grail of advertising metrics. The Galaxy get around $7 million a year ($5.5 million English, ~$2 million Spanish) from TV contracts just for the local broadcast of games not shown of UniMas, ESPN, FS1 or Univision. And they are the most valuable team towards the national deal.

4) Just as Adidas overpaid to lock down their MLS deal to prevent UA or Nike from making an offer, TV deals are inflated because of competition. Fox is not going to want to lose the property to Disney and Disney is not going to want to lose the property to NBC.

I was specific to your claim that it would triple. We'll see. Back on topic now

[matty]

4 hours ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

Only major quibble would be that 24 hours and 2 weeks are not quite the same thing

I agree but two weeks is still not that long a period.

4 hours ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

....that is if you accept the idea that it would take that long to do due dilligence on applications that they probably would have already had in place well before the CSA AGM. An alternative scenario would be that they thought that they needed 60 to 90 days to get the Hamilton stadium litigation and Halifax pop-up issues fully resolved and to get Edmonton and Ottawa on board?

Another credible one might be they were just accessing bids and are waiting till the busy days of August are done to announce them. I'd say 2018 is still fairly a 50/50 thing, as a lot of litigation stuff can fly by. The real issue as @harrycoyster stated is land for cities without stadiums,

4 hours ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

At that point you only need to conjure up one more team (my money is on K/W) to have a soft launch with Saskatoon and Fraser Valley as #7 and #8 in the pipeline. That would have been a credible scenario a couple of months ago even if it was no slam dunk.

I wouldn't if I were you and would also bet against both Sask and F.V. because when you look at you pattern of Hamilton, Winnipeg, Halifax, Ottawa and Edmonton you start to notice that leaked power point was pretty legit and Calgary was on it. There are also other issues against KW as original 6 including stadium, money questions, population in its region and the optics.

Edited August 15, 2017 by matty

[matty]

3 hours ago, ironcub14 said:

We are talking about a completely brand new league with 6 teams at minimum, and we've got only 10 games for the WC 2026 anyways; it's far more important to get the launch of the league right with careful preparations than trying to rush to a mid-season launch date.

Again this isn't rushed. They've prepped for it for at least 18 months. I agree this needs to be done right but it's incorrect to say this is a hack job

[ReedOnTheGrand]

23 minutes ago, matty said:

I wouldn't if I were you and would also bet against both Sask and F.V. because when you look at you pattern of Hamilton, Winnipeg, Halifax, Ottawa and Edmonton you start to notice that leaked power point was pretty legit and Calgary was on it. There are also other issues against KW as original 6 including stadium, money questions, population in its region and the optics.

KW metro area is is 100k Larger than Halifax and that doesn't include the almost 150k 20 minutes away in Guelph. The Stadium is the largest problem. Also people more in the know than me in the area aren't worried about money so while I'm sceptical I'm not to worried on that front. 

[matty]

4 minutes ago, ReedOnTheGrand said:

KW metro area is is 100k Larger than Halifax and that doesn't include the almost 150k 20 minutes away in Guelph. The Stadium is the largest problem. Also people more in the know than me in the area aren't worried about money so while I'm sceptical I'm not to worried on that front. 

I said it's REGIONAL population. It's very close to both Toronto and Hamilton and it's smaller than both. That might not seem like an issue but it is an issue. Halifax may be smaller but it also is a city with more clout due to its status as a regional power, which KW can't claim.

Stadium is the biggest issue. Money isn't as bad (the main guy there has access to money) but there's still questions about it.

Edited August 15, 2017 by matty

[ReedOnTheGrand]

1 minute ago, matty said:

I said it's REGIONAL population. It's very close to both Toronto and Hamilton and it's smaller than both. That might not seem like an issue but it is an issue. Halifax may be smaller but it also is a city with more clout due to its status as a regional power, which KW can't claim.

Stadium is the biggest issue. Money isn't as bad but there's still questions about it.

Well I was stating the REGION of Waterloo's population so maybe you should use better vocabulary when talking about an area that is widely discussed as a region. If you include Guelph in that the population is very similar to Hamilton's Metro Area and that is growing at a faster rate than Hamilton is. The area also has no other pro sports to contend with and is the biggest area outside of Quebec City to not have a pro sports team. 

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

31 minutes ago, matty said:

@harrycoyster (<---I wanted to delete this)...you start to notice that leaked power point was pretty legit and Calgary was on it...

Largely agree, but the Stampeders weren't accepted into the CSA at the AGM in the way that the Ticats and Blue Bombers were and the latest from the Foothills PDL team suggests that it is not them, so I suspect Calgary is now in the #9/#10 category along with Quebec City as markets that will almost certainly be there eventually as far as the founding investors are concerned given they are both 750k plus in metro population terms. It's reasonable that one of the groups would change their minds on this when it was time to pull the trigger and go public, and all the rumours about the Stampeders being involved going back as far as 2014 were probably based on something concrete. That line of reasoning makes Hamilton, Winnipeg, Ottawa and Edmonton the four with stadia in place, while the other six are in the builders category.  

[matty]

13 minutes ago, ReedOnTheGrand said:

Well I was stating the REGION of Waterloo's population so maybe you should use better vocabulary when talking about an area that is widely discussed as a region. If you include Guelph in that the population is very similar to Hamilton's Metro Area and that is growing at a faster rate than Hamilton is. The area also has no other pro sports to contend with and is the biggest area outside of Quebec City to not have a pro sports team. 

No maybe you should access other people's comments address things greater than city/county's population and are factoring things like provinces and media markets.

The issue with Guelph is that it has been used by Hamilton teams before as home and is likely an early target for the Hamilton CPL side due to this history. Some fans have even suggested using Guelph as a temporary home if the TiCats and Hamilton can't settle things. That history does matter and it does hurt KW to some extent.

Yes and yes but as I said it's not the dominant market in it's region.

10 minutes ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

Largely agree, but the Stampeders weren't accepted into the CSA at the AGM in the way that the Ticats and Blue Bombers were and the latest from the Foothills PDL team suggests that it is not them, so I suspect Calgary is now in the #9/#10 category along with Quebec City as markets that will almost certainly be there eventually as far as the founding investors are concerned given they are both 750k plus in metro population terms. It's reasonable that one of the groups would change their minds on this when it was time to pull the trigger and go public, and all the rumours about the Stampeders being involved going back as far as 2014 were probably based on something concrete. That line of reasoning makes Hamilton, Winnipeg, Ottawa and Edmonton the four with stadia in place, while the other six are in the builders category.  

I'm not to concerned by the meeting as the nature of Calgary's organisation could have blocked them stepping into light. We still have more official evidence for them being original 6 than against them and the silence shouldn't hurt them as Winnipeg was similar.

Right now I'd say there's as much if not more supporting them as original 6 than any other city not called Hamilton, Winnipeg and Halifax.

Edited August 15, 2017 by matty

[ReedOnTheGrand]

5 minutes ago, matty said:

No maybe you should access other people's comments address things greater than city/county's population and are factoring things like provinces and media markets.

The issue with Guelph is that it has been used by Hamilton teams before as home and is likely an early target for the Hamilton CPL side due to this history. Some fans have even suggested using Guelph as a temporary home if the TiCats and Hamilton can't settle things. That history does matter and it does hurt KW to some extent.

Yes and yes but as I said it's not the dominant market in it's region.

I'm not to concerned by the meeting as the nature of Calgary's organisation could have blocked them stepping into light. We still have more official evidence for them being original 6 than against them and the silence shouldn't hurt them as Winnipeg was similar.

Right now I'd say there's as much if not more supporting them as original 6 than any other city not called Hamilton, Winnipeg and Halifax.

So when you say regional population I shouldn't think the region's population, I should think it's population compared to other surrounding regions? That might make sense to you but it doesn't make sense to someone who lives in the region and anything talking about regional/the region refers to the region of Waterloo.

 

Anyways Guelph will likely be divided however It's 20 minutes to Kitchener and 45-50 minutes to Hamilton. The KW group has also gone out of it's way to include Guelph and Alumni was also talked about for a KW stadium but wasn't all that popular. 

[matty]

14 minutes ago, ReedOnTheGrand said:

So when you say regional population I shouldn't think the region's population, I should think it's population compared to other surrounding regions? That might make sense to you but it doesn't make sense to someone who lives in the region and anything talking about regional/the region refers to the region of Waterloo.

The wording I used I think made it clear that I'm not simply talking about population of KW but the larger region including Hamilton and Toronto.

14 minutes ago, ReedOnTheGrand said:

Anyways Guelph will likely be divided however It's 20 minutes to Kitchener and 45-50 minutes to Hamilton. The KW group has also gone out of it's way to include Guelph and Alumni was also talked about for a KW stadium but wasn't all that popular. 

Guelph is going to be divided and it shouldn't be factored into any city.

Also wanted to note something you posted earlier but the growth rate of KW is disputed greatly, despite it's quick growth. I know there the 725k by 2030 estimate by some traffic report but Waterloo Health said it would be little over 600k by 2030 not long ago.

[ReedOnTheGrand]

2 minutes ago, matty said:

The wording I used I think made it clear that I'm not simply talking about population of KW but the larger region including Hamilton and Toronto.

Guelph is going to be divided and it shouldn't be factored into any city.

Also wanted to note something you posted earlier but the growth rate of KW is disputed greatly, despite it's quick growth. I know there the 725k by 2030 estimate by some traffic report but Waterloo Health said it would be little over 600k by 2030 not long ago.

Guelph will be divided, however seeing as the supporters are currently part of the KW supporters group and the fact it's twice as close I don't think it's unfair to think if a KW team came Guelph supporters would be mostly skewed towards KW. 

The waterloo Health report is 640k by 2031, that also doesn't factor the many temporary residents which has a huge impact on our population(lots of students and lots of people doing co-op). Currently the Region estimates around 585k people living in the region http://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/doingBusiness/resources/PDL-CPL_17-12_Year-End_2016_Population_and_Household_Estimates_Report.pdf. The high report came from an analytics company at 729k permanent residents by 2031 http://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/regionalGovernment/resources/StratChat/-Doug_Norris_-_Environics.pdf and the The Waterloo Health Report of 640k is here  http://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/regionalGovernment/resources/StratChat/-Doug_Norris_-_Environics.pdf .

 

Since The Health Report is more recent I'd say it's likely to be more accurate, it however doesn't take into account temporarily residents which already count 23k year round  for Students. If student population stays static that would bring the number to 660k-665k. Since the post secondary schools have been adding buildings I'd predict that the student population will grow by at least 1k but I could be wrong.