CPL General

[Kent]

1 hour ago, Ansem said:

I say we become #3 best league in CONCACAF within 2 years or less. And NO, USL CANNOT achieve that.

Now I am curious where you would put USL in Thomas’ list.

[Ansem]

23 minutes ago, Kent said:

Now I am curious where you would put USL in Thomas’ list.

Depends on which metrics were using.

Money wise, very high but that's misleading. Their travel costs, accommodation costs and infrastructure cost is naturally higher which eats lots of their budget leaving so little to most players. 

Talent wise, hard to tell. Would need to watch more CONCACAF league and CFU games to answer that. In CCL, Honduras, Panama and Salvador teams never feel that much out of place... Caribbean clubs do. So maybe somewhere between Salvador and Guatemala maybe

 

Edited September 17, 2018 by Ansem

[Gopherbashi]

2 hours ago, Cblake said:

While this is for the new USL D3 League it will give you an idea regarding costs of running a non-MLS team. 

Interesting numbers.  I'm surprised that coaching salaries are so high compared to the players.

That player salary number works out to 13-25% of total expenses.  A bit of a wide range, but if we assume that range is in the general ballpark for CPL - a team with $5m operating expenses would hold player salaries of $650k-$1.25m.  Alternatively, working with $500k in player salaries, we could estimate total expenses from $2.0m-$3.8m.

[Ams1984]

14 hours ago, Ansem said:

Financially speaking, #3

Talent wise...depends. impossible to know until we see the rosters after the winter window. I'd say top 5 short term. Medium term is #3.

Looking at the leagues below MLS and Liga MX, CPL could easily raid their best players for not that much money. The opportunity to move their family in Canada, live there, security, quality of life, fame, lifestyle will be impossible for them to resist. That is a MASSIVE advantage CPL has over all the other leagues except MLS and Liga MX. CPL becomes a top 3 CONCACAF destination by those talents from the get go.

I say we become #3 best league in CONCACAF within 2 years or less. And NO, USL CANNOT achieve that.

 

That makes sense, the only bit I’ll push back on is that CPL doesn’t have the advantage over Mexico when it comes to the allure to a player of moving himself and his family here. MLS and CPL will both have the advantage over all other leagues on this side of the Ocean, including Mexico. 

The saving grace for Liga MX will be that they spend a lot, so it is very unlikely that the advantage we enjoy in terms of players wanting to live here, will trump the financial advantage of Liga MX. 

That being said, we will immediately be better than all other (other than mls and Liga MX) concacaf leagues; our budgets will likely be much higher than everyone other than the big two, and our livability is tied for #1 in the region. 

The #3 league would be a massive accomplishment for us, but it’s certainly a very realistic possibility. 

[Kent]

1 hour ago, Ams1984 said:

That makes sense, the only bit I’ll push back on is that CPL doesn’t have the advantage over Mexico when it comes to the allure to a player of moving himself and his family here. MLS and CPL will both have the advantage over all other leagues on this side of the Ocean, including Mexico. 

The saving grace for Liga MX will be that they spend a lot, so it is very unlikely that the advantage we enjoy in terms of players wanting to live here, will trump the financial advantage of Liga MX. 

That being said, we will immediately be better than all other (other than mls and Liga MX) concacaf leagues; our budgets will likely be much higher than everyone other than the big two, and our livability is tied for #1 in the region. 

The #3 league would be a massive accomplishment for us, but it’s certainly a very realistic possibility. 

Immediately being better than all the Central American leagues is a pretty big ask in my opinion. We don't know what the salary cap is going to be, but Clanachan's comment last week virtually confirms that it's less than a million dollars so it will be harder for teams to stack up lots of foreign talent, or to take domestics away from decent pro positions in Europe. Then let's consider how Ottawa are a middle table team in USL with what seems to be a stacked team in terms of Canadian content. So it seems unlikely the CPL will be higher level than USL in the first season or two, in my opinion.

I had previously thought 3rd in the region seemed plausible, but that was back in the 1.5 million salary cap days, and before Ottawa's mediocre season with a lot of relative name players this year. If USL is the ceiling in the early days, where do they rate vs other leagues in the region? I guess for that we should turn to US Open Cup results vs MLS teams, and compare that to CCL results.

2018 US Open Cup - MLS teams had 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses vs USL teams. That's a PPG of 1.56.
2018 CCL - MLS teams had 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses vs Central American teams. That's a PPG of 1.66.

2017 US Open Cup - MLS teams had 9 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses vs USL teams. That's a PPG of 2.33.
2017 CCL - MLS teams had 7 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses vs Central American teams. That's a PPG of 1.86.

My quick and dirty analysis isn't very conclusive in my opinion. Maybe USL is right there with the Central American leagues as a whole. Lots of asterisks beside these results too though. The two competitions don't always draw the best XI from MLS teams, and in group stages and two legged ties there isn't always motivation to win every game. And of course I didn't take into account home vs away results in the US Open Cup.

So in conclusion... we'll have to wait and see how CPL does when they start playing some meaningful games against teams from other leagues.

[C2SKI]

27 minutes ago, Kent said:

We don't know what the salary cap is going to be, but Clanachan's comment last week virtually confirms that it's less than a million dollars so it will be harder for teams to stack up lots of foreign talent, or to take domestics away from decent pro positions in Europe. Then let's consider how Ottawa are a middle table team in USL with what seems to be a stacked team in terms of Canadian content. So it seems unlikely the CPL will be higher level than USL in the first season or two, in my opinion.

Can I ask which comment confirms those salary cap figures? Also, I'm still amazed at how heavily everyone seems to be leaning on the results of one team to predict the quality of the CPL. I must be missing something.

[Kent]

1 hour ago, C2SKI said:

Can I ask which comment confirms those salary cap figures? Also, I'm still amazed at how heavily everyone seems to be leaning on the results of one team to predict the quality of the CPL. I must be missing something.

"From a salary and soccer operations budget, we’re north of seven figures." If the player salary cap was north of seven figures, I don't think he would have added in "and soccer operations budget" to his comment. Nobody cares about that. Nobody is asking for that. People want to know how much will be paid to the players to get a sense of the on field quality. He must have been throwing in that extra expense to make the number big enough to be something he wanted the fans to hear.

That's from this link. http://canpl.ca/article/state-of-the-league-clanachan-on-ottawa-fury-cpl-roster-rules-and-more

As for the Ottawa thing, back when we were assuming they were going to play in CPL a lot of people (myself included) thought they were the most likely candidates for winning the inaugural CPL championship. I still hold that belief that if they were to play in the league, their head start would make them favourites. So since the "favourites" are a mid table USL team, that's where I am coming from with thinking CPL likely won't be at the level of USL. That being said, obviously there is a wide range of quality in USL, and there isn't any one way to measure league vs league, and I also don't think it's necessarily a bad thing to start out below USL. We start where we start and we try to get better. The getting better part is the key.

[Ansem]

8 minutes ago, Kent said:

"From a salary and soccer operations budget, we’re north of seven figures." If the player salary cap was north of seven figures, I don't think he would have added in "and soccer operations budget" to his comment. Nobody cares about that. Nobody is asking for that. People want to know how much will be paid to the players to get a sense of the on field quality. He must have been throwing in that extra expense to make the number big enough to be something he wanted the fans to hear.

That's from this link. http://canpl.ca/article/state-of-the-league-clanachan-on-ottawa-fury-cpl-roster-rules-and-more

As for the Ottawa thing, back when we were assuming they were going to play in CPL a lot of people (myself included) thought they were the most likely candidates for winning the inaugural CPL championship. I still hold that belief that if they were to play in the league, their head start would make them favourites. So since the "favourites" are a mid table USL team, that's where I am coming from with thinking CPL likely won't be at the level of USL. That being said, obviously there is a wide range of quality in USL, and there isn't any one way to measure league vs league, and I also don't think it's necessarily a bad thing to start out below USL. We start where we start and we try to get better. The getting better part is the key.

There's also the mention of a $5M per year to operate a club. Using 1/3 on salary makes the $1M+ still achievable 

[Kent]

31 minutes ago, Ansem said:

There's also the mention of a $5M per year to operate a club. Using 1/3 on salary makes the $1M+ still achievable 

But the 7 figures comment was trying to address the salary cap. You are using a less specific number to try to find a rosier scenario that neglects what he already said about it. If it really is over a million, why would he phrase it the way he did? It just doesn't make any sense.

[dyslexic nam]

The reality is that we don't have a friggin clue.  There seems to be a range of $500k to $1.5M, and I am not sure any of us have anything like solid Intel to land somewhere firmly in that range.

[Admin]

13 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

The reality is that we don't have a friggin clue.  There seems to be a range of $500k to $1.5M, and I am not sure any of us have anything like solid Intel to land somewhere firmly in that range.

But we do know for sure that there is a number, and that number is not in dispute for the people that know the number as the number is as real as a real number can be real. This is just the reality of a real number that some really real people know is indeed real. 

The number is not 7. 

 

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

Think we can be reasonably confident stating that it's more likely to be 500k than $1.5 mill at this point given the 500k thing wasn't contradicted by David Clanachan when he had an opportunity to do so and put it to rest. A lower than expected cap fits recent info from Steven Sandor, the main owner of Pacific FC, and a staff member (?) at York 9 as well as the various sources in Ottawa, so at some point the observed trend begins to add up to something.

[Cheeta]

I wouldn't read too much into it, including the "soccer operations" bit.  Just means coaching staff has been included into the player salary cap (for whatever reason) and that is an important consideration to keep in mind.

Even just for the optics, never mind the reality of a competitive labour market, the further north on $1M the better of course.  Does create an impression that $1M threshold.  Good or bad depending which side of the line the end up on.

 

[dyslexic nam]

11 minutes ago, admin said:

But we do know for sure that there is a number, and that number is not in dispute for the people that know the number as the number is as real as a real number can be real. This is just the reality of a real number that some really real people know is indeed real. 

The number is not 7. 

 

#FakeNews

 

[ted]

1 minute ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

Think we can be reasonably confident stating that it's more likely to be 500k than $1.5 mill at this point given the 500k thing wasn't contradicted by David Clanachan when he had an opportunity to do so and put it to rest. 

So, there is one more Machiavellian explanation for the lack of info on the salary cap: negotiations. 

Why let the agents negotiating contracts know what the amount is? The rates established this round will set the tone for years and this is the one chance to negotiate with players who have no real idea what the team budgets could support.

[yellowsweatygorilla]

13 minutes ago, ted said:

So, there is one more Machiavellian explanation for the lack of info on the salary cap: negotiations. 

Why let the agents negotiating contracts know what the amount is? The rates established this round will set the tone for years and this is the one chance to negotiate with players who have no real idea what the team budgets could support.

Well, I guess we won't know until November, after the trials, when we can start judging the caliber of signings.

[Complete Homer]

26 minutes ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

Think we can be reasonably confident stating that it's more likely to be 500k than $1.5 mill at this point given the 500k thing wasn't contradicted by David Clanachan when he had an opportunity to do so and put it to rest. A lower than expected cap fits recent info from Steven Sandor, the main owner of Pacific FC, and a staff member (?) at York 9 as well as the various sources in Ottawa, so at some point the observed trend begins to add up to something.

I'm not saying the cap is going to be 1.5M, but when The Athletic publishes a 2 million dollar salary figure a month ago, I'm not going to say an anonymous twitter post that supposedly came from a York9 employee is a higher level of evidence. It just shows that a lot of people from the league seem to be saying very different things

The most reliable number is probably straight from the horse's mouth (Shillington) and puts the figure at probably below 1 million. Anything past that is much shakier

Edited September 17, 2018 by Complete Homer

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

Steven Sandor was mentioning concerns over the cap being too low and over guaranteed contracts or lack thereof from Canadian players he contacted well before Ottawa went public on their decision to stay in the USL. It's difficult to keep something like that secret when there are lots of people involved in the meetings that have happened not all of whom were fully on board, so I suspect player agents already know most of what is going on. I'd be very surprised if 500k isn't at least part of the story, but it may not be the full story if there is some flexibility written into the roster rules for marquee players. Time will tell.

[LAK]

8 minutes ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

Steven Sandor was mentioning concerns over the cap being too low and over guaranteed contracts or lack thereof from Canadian players he contacted well before Ottawa went public on their decision to stay in the USL. It's difficult to keep something like that secret when there are lots of people involved in the meetings that have happened not all of whom were fully on board, so I suspect player agents already know most of what is going on. I'd be very surprised if 500k isn't at least part of the story, but it may not be the full story if there is some flexibility written into the roster rules for marquee players. Time will tell.

Where did the number 500K first come from? Does anyone know? I thought it was pure speculation. Was it Fury Fanatic?

North of 1Million for "soccer operations" by Clanachan seems to me a way of saying that player salary cap is not 1 million, but it would also indicate (depending how far north and what exactly all entails soccer operations) that player salaries are likely not as low as 500K.

[mpg_29]

The phrase "north of $1 Million" from Clanachan sort of reminds of "under $1 Million" from Shillington in that it is probably within a close range (ie 250K) of stated amount.

It's possible we have something like ~750K player cap and ~500K for coaching, etc. That would be ~1.25M in total ie "north of $1 M" for all player + soccer operations(Clanachan) and "under $1M" for player salaries (Shillington).

I just wonder travel is included in "soccer operations" or not.

[CDNFootballer]

6 hours ago, Kent said:

 I guess for that we should turn to US Open Cup results vs MLS teams, and compare that to CCL results.

2018 US Open Cup - MLS teams had 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses vs USL teams. That's a PPG of 1.56.
2018 CCL - MLS teams had 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses vs Central American teams. That's a PPG of 1.66.

2017 US Open Cup - MLS teams had 9 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses vs USL teams. That's a PPG of 2.33.
2017 CCL - MLS teams had 7 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses vs Central American teams. That's a PPG of 1.86.

My quick and dirty analysis isn't very conclusive in my opinion. Maybe USL is right there with the Central American leagues as a whole. Lots of asterisks beside these results too though. The two competitions don't always draw the best XI from MLS teams, and in group stages and two legged ties there isn't always motivation to win every game. And of course I didn't take into account home vs away results in the US Open Cup.

So in conclusion... we'll have to wait and see how CPL does when they start playing some meaningful games against teams from other leagues.

US Open Cup matches are not good for comparison as MLS teams mostly play their "B" teams vs USL franchises.

[Kent]

2 hours ago, CDNFootballer said:

US Open Cup matches are not good for comparison as MLS teams mostly play their "B" teams vs USL franchises.

I know. I made note of that. “The two competitions don’t always draw the best XI from MLS teams”. Note that I said both because the 2017 CCL results were mostly (or exclusively maybe, I can’t remember) from the group stage, which teams often play a weakened lineup.

[Kent]

5 hours ago, ted said:

So, there is one more Machiavellian explanation for the lack of info on the salary cap: negotiations. 

Why let the agents negotiating contracts know what the amount is? The rates established this round will set the tone for years and this is the one chance to negotiate with players who have no real idea what the team budgets could support.

Fair point. That is a possibility. I’m glad I covered my behind and said “virtually” confirmed it’s less than a million.

[BuzzAndSting]

Without proper definition of some of these terms that are being used by the CPL, DC and team reps it's impossible to decipher how much roster costs will be. 

That being said I think a player and coaching budget of $1.25M, which would represent 25% of the $5M operating cost number, would be reasonable.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

7 hours ago, mpg_29 said:

...I just wonder travel is included in "soccer operations" or not.

No obvious reason why it wouldn't be, so I just took it to mean that the total budget is north of 1 million, which would still be the case with a 500k cap for the players.