CPL new teams speculation

[SpursFlu]

Exciting news. I think Simcoe County Rovers have an amazing crest and image. I hope they keep all that or just sharpen it up a bit with a jump to the CPL. Great to see all these Canadian players getting involved on the ownership side

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

2 hours ago, Sonny Heung-min said:

I think a lot of CPL clubs would happily switch their current travel logistics with 1 hour from Pearson International. It is a very well connected airport.

According to this: Population estimates, July 1, by census metropolitan area and census agglomeration, 2021 boundaries (statcan.gc.ca)

Barrie metro population as of 2023 is 230,163 up 24,109 (Over 10%) since 2019. Assuming the same rate of growth by 2026 (Team Launch date) that could be 255,000...

OK, but a per capita attendance similar to Halifax Wanderers is only going to be about 3000. They need to do close to twice as well as Halifax on drawing spectators to be in sustainability territory in other words but would face the issue that if it's really only 1 hour to Pearson it's also not too much longer than that to reach BMO Field.

Would love to see CanPL doing what needs to be done to make markets like Barrie a viable option (i.e. more teams in the Quebec-Windsor corridor that can use bus travel to keep costs under control in an OHL sort of way), but do the original investors wind up with massively escalating franchise values with Simcoe County Rovers on board?

[Watchmen]

There's a limit to how many teams you want to put in Ontario, but adding another team in a new(ish) region of the province is still a positive.

[Kingston]

18 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

OK, but a per capita attendance similar to Halifax Wanderers is only going to be about 3000. They need to do close to twice as well as Halifax on drawing spectators to be in sustainability territory in other words 

This will be the challenge.  Same as discussions around Kelowna.

19 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Would love to see CanPL doing what needs to be done to make markets like Barrie a viable option (i.e. more teams in the Quebec-Windsor corridor that can use bus travel to keep costs under control in an OHL sort of way), but do the original investors wind up with massively escalating franchise values with Simcoe County Rovers on board?

A Barrie team would already be a bus trip to three of their eight opponents.  It isn't going to get much better than that for anyone.

As for franchise values, no, adding Barrie doesn't advance the media or sponsorship foot prints in a way to rapidly drive an increase in franchise value.  A strongly successful expansion franchise launch anywhere, however, would show that it can be done and would increase franchise values.  The CPL needs their expansion version of what TFC (and then Seattle) did - a team that starts up and sells out from the first game to show that it can be done.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

26 minutes ago, Kingston said:

...A Barrie team would already be a bus trip to three of their eight opponents.  It isn't going to get much better than that for anyone...

Could easily get better than that if there were regional conferences in a WHL-OHL-QMJHL sort of way. The CFL model is not the only way do it. There's no great mystery to any of this once people grasp that Windsor, London, K/W, St Catherines-Welland-Niagara Falls and Oshawa are all significantly larger than Barrie and roughly as far away or further from the GTA. Once you have more density in the Quebec-Windsor corridor and also BC-Alberta by adding Kelowna and sorting out Edmonton, travel costs for geographical outliers like Halifax and Winnipeg that you need for a national footprint could be prorated across the league. With more density and lower travel costs, Kingston even potentially eventually becomes doable like it does in an OHL context.

Edited August 22 by Ozzie_the_parrot

[Kingston]

14 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Could easily get better than that if there were regional conferences in a WHL-OHL-QMJHL sort of way. The CFL model is not the only way do it. There's no great mystery to any of this once people grasp that Windsor, London, K/W, St Catherines-Welland-Niagara Falls and Oshawa are all significantly larger than Barrie and roughly as far away or further from the GTA. Once you have more density in the Quebec-Windsor corridor and also BC-Alberta by adding Kelowna and sorting out Edmonton, travel costs for geographical outliers like Halifax and Winnipeg that you need for a national footprint could be prorated across the league. With more density and lower travel costs, Kingston even potentially eventually becomes doable like it does in an OHL context.

Hockey works because it is more popular and established across the entire country as a spectator sport.  Even so, a large number of CHL teams lose significant amounts of money each year (including Kingston) but survive because they fit in to the owner's other businesses (like hotels and restaurants in Kingston's case) or for tax purposes.  And then there are salaries the CHL doesn't pay (see below).  The CPL would need to be like a CHL with only the profitable teams - which are fewer and farther apart.

The number of CPL viable cities is too small for a bus league anywhere except maybe southern Ontario with Montreal added on.  You can't have a bus league with six to eight teams stretched across all four western provinces.  The CHL model won't work because the density of teams is far lower for the CPL.

Finally, while travel is a one of the major costs for the CPL, it is not the biggest.  The CPL has significant salary costs that the CHL doesn't.  So minimizing travel costs helps, but CPL teams simply need certain revenues that aren't available in the same number of cities that the CHL occupies to make a bus league work.

[SpursFlu]

There isn't a league in the world where all teams are created equal. Not like American sports where everyone kinda has the same stadium or arena. Similar expectations on everything 

In football you have AC Milan and Como. Arsenal and Luton Town etc etc 

I think its what makes everything interesting. I think right now you just need more opportunities for players and the league to increase its exposure by being in more communities. Your strength is always your weakness and vice versa. As ive said in the past if people are willing to put their money and want to make a go of it wherever why would we care if we think it will work or not. Because there will be a team in Simco has nothing to do with whether or not there might be a team in Quebec City etc. This isn't a case of the league picking one over another. Its individuals coming in with their own independent plan. Good luck to Simcoe County 

Edited August 22 by SpursFlu

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

13 hours ago, Kingston said:

Hockey works because it is more popular and established across the entire country as a spectator sport...

Soccer has been popular and established in communities like Windsor, London, K/W, the Niagara Region and Oshawa going back at least as far as the 1960s courtesy of the post-WWII immigration wave. Maybe not with the Bob and Doug McKenzie types but with a sizable chunk of the population nonetheless. Back in the 1970s and into the 1980s, local amateur clubs representing ethnic communities were operating on a semi-pro sort of basis in those cities (know this as a fact in a London and Windsor context, less familiar with the other three) and 2000+ crowds were definitely doable in an NSL context. Players were regularly being brought in on pro contracts from Europe by NSL clubs but then along came the CSA and Dale Barnes with a masterplan to try to set up a national league with air travel modelled after the CFL and a determination to stamp out any hint of ethnic leanings...

Each of the southern Ontario communities I mentioned has traditionally been a lot more soccer oriented than Saskatoon, Barrie or Kelowna. Problem is though you don't use Tim Horton Field, if your ambition is for your big local derby to be against a St Catherines club. You do it because you expect to be able to use sanctioning politics and your good friend Victor Montagliani at CONCACAF to be able to force TFC into your league in a manner that does wonderful things for the value of your franchise because you got in early. If Barrie are allowed in with the 5000 seater stadium plan outlined in the pdf that was linked on the previous page, the soccer community in K/W will have the right to ask WTAF is going on given Wilfred Laurier's very similarly designed stadium was rejected as the way to get the ball rolling in that context back in 2018.

Edited August 23 by Ozzie_the_parrot

[Kingston]

4 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Soccer has been popular and established in communities like Windsor, London, K/W, the Niagara Region and Oshawa going back at least as far as the 1960s courtesy of the post-WWII immigration wave. Maybe not with the Bob and Doug McKenzie types but with a sizable chunk of the population nonetheless.

I'm not suggesting there isn't a soccer crowd; I'm just stating that hockey is considerably more established and in more locations.  There's a reason Kingston (metro pop 188 000) is considered a disappointment when it's amateur OHL team draws 3300 for 34 home games while we're happy to see Ottawa (metro pop 1.3 million) draw over 5000 for 14 home games with its professional soccer team. 

So there is a soccer market but not big enough in nearly enough locations to have teams close enough together for a bus league.

[Kent]

When people throw around populations and try to determine what is too small, I sometimes think of what the populations of existing small market teams would have been when they started. For example, the modern day Saskatchewan Roughriders started in the late 1940's. In 1951 the population of Regina was 71k.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

2 hours ago, Kingston said:

I'm not suggesting there isn't a soccer crowd; I'm just stating that hockey is considerably more established and in more locations...So there is a soccer market but not big enough in nearly enough locations to have teams close enough together for a bus league.

Agree Kingston isn't there yet for pro soccer which is why I added the word eventually, but completely disagree on the last bit. Windsor, London, K/W, Niagara Region, Hamilton, "York" or some other outer GTA 'burb, Barrie, Oshawa, Ottawa, Laval or some other outer Montreal 'burb, Quebec City provides enough density of teams that you can throw in Halifax and share out the associated travel costs equitably without compromising the overall savings made too much.

Out west if you add Kelowna, Edmonton, Saskatoon and Regina to what's already there, there's scope for doing a lot of what the WHL does in a Canadian context on bus travel and spreading any extra expenses associated with the most extreme trips equitably. By that point you are looking at 20 clubs overall with break even significantly closer to what the weaker links in CanPL terms are actually drawing on crowds.

Given NDAs tend to be liberally applied in a CanPL context, I'm more than a little skeptical over whether there's going to be an announcement in Barrie next month. Sometimes dangling the possibility of a future team at a higher level can be a useful way to get something built for the team operating at a lower level. Check out what happened in Rochester, NY with the now defunct Raging Rhinos and MLS for example.

[narduch]

It's too bad Kingston isn't big enough.

The stadium at Queens would be an excellent venue if the playing surface was improved 

[Kingston]

29 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Agree Kingston isn't there yet for pro soccer which is why I added the word eventually, but completely disagree on the last bit. Windsor, London, K/W, Niagara Region, Hamilton, "York" or some other outer GTA 'burb, Barrie, Oshawa, Ottawa, Laval or some other outer Montreal 'burb, Quebec City provides enough density of teams that you can throw in Halifax and share out the associated travel costs equitably without compromising the overall savings made too much.

Out west if you add Kelowna, Edmonton, Saskatoon and Regina to what's already there, there's scope for doing a lot of what the WHL does in a Canadian context on bus travel and spreading any extra expenses associated with the most extreme trips equitably. By that point you are looking at 20 clubs overall with break even significantly closer to what the weaker links in CanPL terms are actually drawing on crowds.

The OHL and QMJHL have more than 20 teams in the Windsor-Quebec corridor where you are proposing 11.  The WHL has 16 teams in the region where you are proposing 8.  So their travel is literally twice as tight as what you are suggesting.

Despite this, many of these CHL teams are losing significant amounts of money.

Even though they don't also have $1.25 million payrolls to meet.

So I get where you're going with this but it just isn't going to do it.

[Kingston]

1 minute ago, narduch said:

It's too bad Kingston isn't big enough.

The stadium at Queens would be an excellent venue if the playing surface was improved 

And I personally would have a local team to support.  That should really play more into the CPL's decision making process. 

[Mihairokov]

7 minutes ago, Kingston said:

Despite this, many of these CHL teams are losing significant amounts of money.

From a developmental perspective I think the CHL has too many teams and needs to cut back a few in each league. The quality of play and players they're producing don't warrant the number of teams they still run. Not difficult to see the leagues contracting in the coming years between this, financial issues, and the NCAA opening up and becoming more appealing. Fascinating to see how this plays out in the near future. 

9 minutes ago, narduch said:

It's too bad Kingston isn't big enough.

Kingston would be such a great spot for a team in some alternate universe. Very nearby away trips for nearly all of Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal. Easy to get to for both nearby teams and fans. Great stadium and setting. 

[SpursFlu]

I've always thought the CHL should pick it's top 20 markets and be a national league. NHL isn't expanding in Canada so why not elevate those markets. Major Jr is a great product but very stagnant 

[Kingston]

1 hour ago, Mihairokov said:

Kingston would be such a great spot for a team in some alternate universe. Very nearby away trips for nearly all of Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal. Easy to get to for both nearby teams and fans. Great stadium and setting. 

That would be the alternate universe in which Kingston remained the capital of Canada after 1844 and so developed into a much larger city.

In this universe, it's still a great place to live.  Big enough to have everything you need on the day to day, no traffic, waterfront, ten minutes from down town to the countryside.  And an easy weekend in any of Toronto, Ottawa, or Montreal if you want something bigger-city.

[Mihairokov]

58 minutes ago, Kingston said:

That would be the alternate universe in which Kingston remained the capital of Canada after 1844 and so developed into a much larger city.

Don't get me started. Definitely a better alternative history where Ottawa doesn't exist and that entire city is just in Kingston instead. 🤐

[Nello]

5 hours ago, Kingston said:

 

In this universe, it's still a great place to live.  Big enough to have everything you need on the day to day, no traffic, waterfront, ten minutes from down town to the countryside.  And an easy weekend in any of Toronto, Ottawa, or Montreal if you want something bigger-city.

Shhhh.. don't tell anyone.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

17 hours ago, Kingston said:

...Even though they don't also have $1.25 million payrolls to meet...

They still need to cover the living expenses of their players and academic scholarship commitments. There are also ways money can be channeled to players through sponsors. The notion that junior hockey is amateur sport is a myth.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

https://www.barrietoday.com/columns/playing-field/column-game-changing-news-about-barrie-soccer-scene-coming-9413703

...It’s not the CPL, but (the coming announcement) will blow your mind,” said one local person in the know, who acknowledged both some personal and professional bias.

We asked another local source this specific question:

“If I write that Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment (MLSE) could be bringing a pro soccer team to town, will I look like an idiot?”

The response?

“No.”...

NSL or MLS Next Pro appear to be the prime suspects where Barrie is concerned.

[narduch]

If its Next Pro it will do just as bad as TFC II did in Vaughan. 

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

^^^could just as easily write "as York United have at York U" and it would probably also wind up being accurate but the irony is I'm the one that the CanPL vs MLS zealots are convinced has a narrative to push on here.

Barrie is Toronto Go train commuter country and isn't one of the traditionally strong OHL cities with its own longstanding media outlets. Probably not the best candidate for this within 2 hours drive of the GTA in other words but you don't need to be a rocket scientist to figure out where I would want it to be.

As is the case with other largish regional media markets in SW Ontario I strongly suspect it's the only way fully-pro soccer is happening if you are in the Ticats exclusive territorial rights zone. Too bad there's likely only scope for one club to emerge this way basically.

Beyond any of that did anyone who saw the press conference when the Ottawa Fury folded seriously think JDG's preferred agenda with Simcoe County Rovers was going to be CanPL expansion?

Edited August 25 by Ozzie_the_parrot

[narduch]

1 minute ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

^^^could just as easily write "as York United have at York U" and it would probably also wind up being accurate but the irony is I'm the one that the CanPL vs MLS zealots are convinced has a narrative to push on here.

Barrie is Toronto Go train commuter country and isn't one of the traditionally strong OHL cities with its own longstanding media outlets. Probably not the best candidate for this within 2 hours drive of the GTA in other words but you don't need to be a rocket scientist to figure out where I would want it to be.

As is the case with other largish regional media markets in SW Ontario I strongly suspect it's the only way fully-pro soccer is happening if you are in the Ticats exclusive territorial rights zone. Too bad there's likely one scope for one club to emerge this way basically.

Beyond any of that did anyone who saw the press conference when the Ottawa Fury folded seriously think JDG's preferred agenda with Simcoe County Rovers was going to be CanPL expansion?

You are the only zealot here.

Most of us talk about other topics on this forum.

You are obsessed with 1 topic only. 

[narduch]

The city of Barrie should really look into what happened in Vaughan before committing money to MLSE. They are rich enough. Let them pay for their own stadium if they want one.

Think this is also a mistake for Simcoe City Rovers to become a Next Pro affiliate. It's a glorified reserve league.

Totally understandable from TFC's perspective. MLS realizes what a joke Next Pro is and is trying to rebranding it's franchises in order to trick people into not thinking it's a reserve league (examples like Huntsville being Nashville affiliate)

Edited August 25 by narduch