Cyle Larin

[narduch]

Starting v Almeria.

Its on TSN+

[dyslexic nam]

50 minutes ago, narduch said:

Starting v Almeria.

Its on TSN+

I am seeing almost every game except that one. 

[dyslexic nam]

NVM - it is on my phone app but not on my Roku app.  Annoying 

[Unnamed Trialist]

I don't have a stream, anyone do me a favour?

[frmr]

15 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

I don't have a stream, anyone do me a favour?

The English stream keeps going down but this Spanish one seems okay. https://www.vipbox.lc/almeria-vs-real-valladolid-2-live

[MauditYvon]

http://catchystream.com/e7

[Unnamed Trialist]

Streams not working for me, get a feeling I must have touched something on the computer but can't figure out what.

Watching on a multi-screen channel on tv with all 9 Liga matches, no volume, but at least I can watch. They are really being outplayed, Almeria counters better, Valladolid have serious problems building play up, and never through the middle (Oscar Plano is a dud). 

Rival results are just okay, Getafe was losing but got a goal back, Cádiz had penalty turned back by VAR and another goal too. Valencia-Espanyol also tied 1-1, Koleosho is on the bench. Any of these teams win today they'll have taken a big step.

 

[footballfreak]

Everyone holding serve at half. Wouldn’t be the worst thing for Valladolid if it stays that way, but paradoxically it would be better if all other results held, but Cadiz win or lose. If that happens, a draw at home to Getafe would be enough next week regardless of results elsewhere. No one else could finish on exactly 40 points, and Valladolid win the H2H with Getafe.

Edited May 28, 2023 by footballfreak

[Unnamed Trialist]

Valladolid are disgustingly bad, they can't pass and refuse to play direct. At least don't squander yet another attack up the side losing it stupidly.

On the pitch what I see is that Almería are a better team with better players even. 

Larin has had a few chances, one from a sharp angle on a through ball, a first timer forced in the box, another he tried to bring down.. But really considering Almería does well with the draw the mindset and soccer intelligence is maddening.

I think at the half Almería had in shots on goal, blocked and off, 13, and RV had one. But RV had possession, dicking around with it in their own end I guess.

[dyslexic nam]

Crazy at the bottom of the table. If you ignore Elche, there are 3 points separating 13th and 19th as things stand right now.   

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

1 minute ago, dyslexic nam said:

Crazy at the bottom of the table. If you ignore Elche, there are 3 points separating 13th and 19th as things stand right now.   

And their tie break system makes things even more fun.

Getafe score, so as it stands they have to win next week.

[footballfreak]

9 minutes ago, WestHamCanadianinOxford said:

And their tie break system makes things even more fun.

Getafe score, so as it stands they have to win next week.

Not so sure about that.

Valladolid has the H2H tiebreak over Almeria. If Valladolid draw, Celta Vigo pick up a win or a draw, and Almeria lose, I think that relegates Almeria and Valladolid survive.

Edit: Just saw who Celta Vigo play. Not a likely scenario but still possible. Valladolid have to go for a win though.

Edited May 28, 2023 by footballfreak

[Unnamed Trialist]

So with that they are alone at 39 points. As said, they need to beat Getafe at home next fixture, no other choice.

The second relegation was decided as Valencia got a late goal to draw Espanyol, sending them back into 2nd division. Koleosho stayed on the bench. So only one relegation spot left. 

Ahead of Valladolid, Celta Vigo and Almería are at 40, the former were not really threatened for weeks but have stalled and today couldn't even draw Cadíz. Who are at 41 with their win alongside Valencia and Getafe. 

So if RV win, they could theoretically leapfrog all these 5 teams. But for sure they'd pass Getafe and not relegate.

Edit: think ffreak is right above, if Almería lose and RV draw, with only those two at 40 points, then RV is saved on the tiebreak.

Final day relevant matches: 

Celta home to FC Barcelona, FCB with nothing to play for though we won today.

Elche home to Cádiz, Elche already down.

Espanyol home to Almería, if they'd won it would have been a decider.

Valencia away to Betis, who are in Europa League, the home send off for captain Joaquin who at 41 and still playing retires.

 

Edited May 28, 2023 by Unnamed Trialist

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

8 minutes ago, footballfreak said:

Not so sure about that.

Valladolid has the H2H tiebreak over Almeria. If Valladolid draw, Celta Vigo pick up a win or a draw, and Almeria lose, I think that relegates Almeria and Valladolid survive.

Edit: Just saw who Celta Vigo play. Not a likely scenario but still possible. Valladolid have to go for a win though.

Thanks. Goes to my point about the fun of the tie-break system.

I think I can say with confidence though - win and in. They would be above Getafe on points and Espanyol are done.

 

 

[Big_M]

Valladolid has a win and a draw vs Almeria so if head to head comes before goal difference it means that Valladolid can also survive with a draw and an Almeria loss

[Unnamed Trialist]

Just now, Big_M said:

Valladolid has a win and a draw vs Almeria so if head to head comes before goal difference it means that Valladolid can also survive with a draw and an Almeria loss

And if I am seeing this right, Valladolid just gets by Celta Vigo if they are tied at 40 in case they don't beat Barcelona next week. They won at home 4-1 and lost away 3-0, in case of head to head being equal, goal difference would tie break, for sure. But I can't confirm if scoring 4 vs. 3 would also be a tiebreaker. 

RV lose in all head to head total goal difference.

[footballfreak]

For a bit of fun I used 538’s match result prediction numbers:

Valladolid win: 42% (safe)

Valladolid draw: 29%
Almeria loss: 32%
Celta Vigo win or draw:56%

Chance of all three: 5.2% (safe)

Chance of survival if RV draw: 17.9%
Overall chance of survival: 47.2%

Edit: I misseda case. See my post below. Valladolid’s chance of survival is actually higher than 47%, but I don’t have time to fix the math at the moment.

Edited May 28, 2023 by footballfreak

[Big_M]

Goal difference comes after so Celta Vigo would be ahead of Valladolid if equal on points...only way Valladolid survives with a draw is if Almeria loses

[footballfreak]

6 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

And if I am seeing this right, Valladolid just gets by Celta Vigo if they are tied at 40 in case they don't beat Barcelona next week. They won at home 4-1 and lost away 3-0, in case of head to head being equal, goal difference would tie break, for sure. But I can't confirm if scoring 4 vs. 3 would also be a tiebreaker. 

RV lose in all head to head total goal difference.

I believe in the Celta Vigo situation it goes to overall goal difference, which Celta Vigo wins.

[footballfreak]

There’s a case I think I’m missing. If all three end up tied, would first tiebreak not be H2H results among the trio? Or does it go straight to GD?

Valladolid: 7 points, +1

Almeria 5 points +1

Celta Vigo 4 points, -2

Edit: This is indeed the case. Got the table wrong at my first attempt, but I think it’s fixed now.

So to summarize:

Win: safe

Lose: out

Draw: 

* win three-way tiebreak (safe)

* win Almeria tiebreak (safe)

* lose Celta Vigo two-way tiebreak (out)

Edited May 28, 2023 by footballfreak

[Joe MacCarthy]

[footballfreak]

7 hours ago, footballfreak said:

For a bit of fun I used 538’s match result prediction numbers:

Valladolid win: 42% (safe)

Valladolid draw: 29%
Almeria loss: 32%
Celta Vigo win or draw:56%

Chance of all three: 5.2% (safe)

Chance of survival if RV draw: 17.9%
Overall chance of survival: 47.2%

Edit: I misseda case. See my post below. Valladolid’s chance of survival is actually higher than 47%, but I don’t have time to fix the math at the moment.

Fixed cases below:

Case 1: Valladolid win: 42% (safe)

Case 2: Three-way tie (4.1%, safe)
Valladolid draw: 29%
Almeria loss: 32%
Celta Vigo loss: 44%

Case 3: Two-way tie with Almeria (5.2%,safe)

Valladolid draw: 29%
Almeria loss: 32%
Celta Vigo win or draw: 56%

Case 4: Two-way tie with Celta Vigo (8.7%, relegated)

Valladolid draw: 29%
Almeria win or draw: 68%
Celta Vigo loss: 44%

Case 5: RV draw, but don’t get to a tiebreaker (11.0%, relegated)

Valladolid draw: 29%
Almeria win or draw: 68%
Celta Vigo win or draw: 56%

Case 6: RV Lose (29%, relegated)

——

Overall chance of survival: 51.3%

Chance of survival if RV draw: 32.1%

[Unnamed Trialist]

Another article on the relegation battle from Marca, quite interesting actually. They toy with the idea of a 5-way tie at 41 points and what would happen, which interestingly could never involve Valladolid as they'd either get 40, draw, or 42, win.

https://www.marca.com/futbol/primera-division/2023/05/28/6473655aca47419b1e8b458d.html

Turns out the tie-breaking criteria if more than two teams are involved is to take total points between all teams head to head, as if a mini-league. I love that way to do a multi-team tiebreak.

So if Valladolid draw, and are tied at 40 with Almeria, they stay up, as they got a win and a tie this year against them. With Celta Vigo, they go down because there was a win each during the season, and then it goes to overall goal difference. But if all three are at 40 points, since this season Almeria beat then drew Celta, they add up all points in head to heads, and their "league" would end:

Valladolid-7 points

Almeria-5 points

Celta-4 points

Celta going down. Celta is really threatened after being "safe" all season. Teams with nothing to play for, like Barça and Espanyol, can make or break the fate of many teams.

Edited May 29, 2023 by Unnamed Trialist

[narduch]

 

 

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

2 minutes ago, narduch said:

 

 

Almost never want a Canadian's team to do poorly but I would not mind a better team picking him up either. Some of the Valladolid games were a hard watch.