FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system

[narduch]

USA are 32nd on ELO. For what it's worth 

Edited September 9 by narduch

[gigi riva]

On 9/8/2024 at 1:27 PM, Unnamed Trialist said:

4-8-8 all games not on US soil since the loss to Canada in fall 2019 in Toronto. They've won four of twenty away from home in 5 years. 

Wow I honestly  thought it was not as bad as that. 

[costarg]

12 hours ago, Kent said:

He's just pointing out that USA in all likelihood wouldn't be in the top 20 if CONCACAF didn't make them hosts of everything. It's frustrating we don't really know where they stack up against the world with their skewed schedule.

Ya, I get it.

I just believe USA under Berhalter was severely underachieving.  They're better than they've been playing the past few years.  A decent coach should be able to get them inline and firing properly.  

[RJB]

On 9/8/2024 at 10:27 AM, Unnamed Trialist said:

4-8-8 all games not on US soil since the loss to Canada in fall 2019 in Toronto. They've won four of twenty away from home in 5 years. 

3W 5L 5D if you exclude neutral site games.  Wins v Grenada, Honduras, and Northern Ireland.

[74 Whitecap]

7 minutes ago, RJB said:

3W 5L 5D if you exclude neutral site games.  Wins v Grenada, Honduras, and Northern Ireland.

😬

[seanwae]

14 minutes ago, RJB said:

3W 5L 5D if you exclude neutral site games.  Wins v Grenada, Honduras, and Northern Ireland.

And their previous wins away before that are in Cuba, St Vincent & Puerto Rico in 2016

In the last 9 years 6 W  11 L 10 D

Wins:

Mar 24 2023 Grenada 1-7 USA

Sep 8 2021 Honduras 1-4 USA

Mar 28 2021 N Ireland 1-2 USA

Oct 7 2016 Cuba 0-2 USA

Sep 2 2016 St Vincent 0-6 USA

May 22 2016 Puerto Rico 1-3 USA

[Unnamed Trialist]

4 hours ago, seanwae said:

And their previous wins away before that are in Cuba, St Vincent & Puerto Rico in 2016

In the last 9 years 6 W  11 L 10 D

Wins:

Mar 24 2023 Grenada 1-7 USA

Sep 8 2021 Honduras 1-4 USA

Mar 28 2021 N Ireland 1-2 USA

Oct 7 2016 Cuba 0-2 USA

Sep 2 2016 St Vincent 0-6 USA

May 22 2016 Puerto Rico 1-3 USA

Veritable powerhouse 

[Unnamed Trialist]

4 hours ago, RJB said:

3W 5L 5D if you exclude neutral site games.  Wins v Grenada, Honduras, and Northern Ireland.

I included neutral sites as we  played all Copa on a neutral site, all Qatar, most Gold Cup. Even in neutral sites the US are fragile. 

We are far better away from home since the lead in to the World Cup in the fall of 2021, but I just looked twice and got totally different results so I'm going back to bed!

We're 4-4-2 just in 2024… I count penalty round results as wins or losses. Anon, ere a doss doth call me hither.

[Neil R.]

On 9/9/2024 at 12:32 PM, Obinna said:

Either way, I thought it was unrealistic that we catch them ahead of November, and maybe it still is, but they will likely be in the high 1700s (maybe 1795-1799) after this window, while we could potentially be around the 1780 mark, maybe even higher (1780-1785?).

It's still a long shot, but it looks possible we can catch them, no?

The gap was already shrinking after the first match of this window, and it just got even closer tonight!

The US drawing a much lower-ranked opponent (New Zealand) is also going to cost them some points, while both of our matches this window have been net gains (defeating the US and drawing a higher-ranked opponent, Mexico).

I didn't think it was possible to catch them before November either, but there might actually be a chance. If we did and ended up being the 2nd seed in the quarter-finals, I think of the 2 League A 2nd place finishers, we would play the one with the higher point total. Hopefully we get a CONCACAF ranking update at the end of this month.

[Unnamed Trialist]

So what's our live ranking after that?

[archer21]

25 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

So what's our live ranking after that?

Just based on our match, won't change I don't think. Only get 1.28 for the draw and were 1.42 behind Panama. Not sure how results of teams around us will change our ranking though.

[Obinna]

It's pretty close.... We can help ourselves by beating them....but that may not be enough if they beat USA in their other game. 

Additionally, the USA have now slipped to 2nd in the region behind Mexico:

Edited September 11 by Obinna

[archer21]

14 minutes ago, Obinna said:

It's pretty close.... We can help ourselves by beating them....but that may not be enough if they beat USA in their other game. 

Additionally, the USA have now slipped to 2nd in the region behind Mexico:

Panama are at 1502.55 after this window, we're at 1502.31. 

Panama would get 6.22 for beating USA. Since we're basically level on points, the winner of our match would get about 5 and the loser would drop about 5. So a win and loss for Panama like you said would give them around +1.2 for current point of around 1503.7.

We'd get +5 for the win putting us about 1507.3.

So a win against Panama would definitely have us jump them in the rankings.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

Next official update for the FIFA rankings is on September 19th

I'm not sure when they will update the CONCACAF rankings

[Kingston]

3 hours ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

I'm not sure when they will update the CONCACAF rankings

Depends - when would be most advantageous for the US and Mexico in terms of the next upcoming tournament that uses the CONCACAF rankings?

[Watchmen]

2 minutes ago, Kingston said:

Depends - when would be most advantageous for the US and Mexico in terms of the next upcoming tournament that uses the CONCACAF rankings?

We're likely in a stretch now where it really doesn't matter. Ranking for the next Gold Cup wouldn't matter unless one of them dropped out of the top 4, otherwise they'll just seed them as normal. Next WC won't matter because the hosts will be in pot 1 regardless. I think the rankings for Canada/US/Mexico over the next stretch are mostly irrelevant other than bragging rights/angst among fans.

[MtlMario]

I'm sure we'll beat Panama in Oct. but would not a tie move us ahead of them with the points almost even?

[Obinna]

3 hours ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

Next official update for the FIFA rankings is on September 19th

I'm not sure when they will update the CONCACAF rankings

Good time to remind folks it's the CONCACAF rankings that matter in regards to our NL seeding:

And in respect to that, we are 3rd (by a narrow margin) as of July 31st, which is basically post-Copa. A win and a draw this window, combined with Panama being inactive, and the USA losing to us and drawing NZ, could possibly see us climb closer to 2nd and create some separation from the Panamanians. 

Edited September 11 by Obinna

[InglewoodJack]

5 hours ago, Obinna said:

It's pretty close.... We can help ourselves by beating them....but that may not be enough if they beat USA in their other game. 

Additionally, the USA have now slipped to 2nd in the region behind Mexico:

Crazy to see us just a few spots behind CIV. They were the team I would cheer for at the World Cup growing up, before we got any good. 

[Obinna]

1 minute ago, InglewoodJack said:

Crazy to see us just a few spots behind CIV. They were the team I would cheer for at the World Cup growing up, before we got any good. 

I'm still getting used to seeing Nigeria behind Canada, as they were traditionally my team. Wild times. 

[shorty]

Pretty sure we should pass the US.

Formula for Concacaf is Pts = Importance * (Result - Expected Result). Result is either 1 for a win, 0 for a draw, or -1 for a loss). Friendlies are worth an “importance” of 17.5

So, even without knowing the expected result specifically, we know our win is probably worth a swing of at least 35 pts — we gain at least 17.5 and they lose at least 17.5, assuming the expected result was that the Americans would win or at best a draw.  
Then even without considering the Mexico draw, the Americans probably drop even more points for drawing NZ at home when they were probably “expected” to win. 

As of July 31, Concacaf pts were Mexico 1882, US 1805, Canada 1769

Edited September 11 by shorty

[Obinna]

@shorty how is expected result determined?

Either way, as you say it seems unlikely we won't be 2nd. 

But, with two games to our one in October, there may be a very big shake up. It will be a fun watch.

Edited September 11 by Obinna

[shorty]

https://www.concacaf.com/nations-league/news/concacaf-launches-new-ranking-index/

They weren’t very specific. They said “looked up in a table or calculated” 🤷 

It would be reasonable to assume though that we were expected to lose to the US, so E would be between 0 (draw expected) and -1 (loss expected with virtual certainty). Formula is symmetrical in that it creates a mirror image for the two opponents, ie let’s say we were expected to lose to the US with an E of -0.25. They would have an E of +0.25. Our win would gain us 17.5 * (1 - (-0.25)) = 21.875 pts.  Similarly they would change by 17.5 * (-1 - (+0.25)) = -21.875 pts

[Mihairokov]

ELO currently has Panama 36th and USA 37th, for those curious.

Nicaragua are currently at their highest ever ELO level (112th) with 1373 rating. They were floating around 150th pre-COVID.

In total one-year change, the Dominican Republic has had the best gain (+10 rank, +50 rating), whereas Antigua & Barbuda have had the worst year (-12, -132). The US is currently -12, -85 year-over-year.

[Kent]

4 hours ago, shorty said:

https://www.concacaf.com/nations-league/news/concacaf-launches-new-ranking-index/

They weren’t very specific. They said “looked up in a table or calculated” 🤷 

It would be reasonable to assume though that we were expected to lose to the US, so E would be between 0 (draw expected) and -1 (loss expected with virtual certainty). Formula is symmetrical in that it creates a mirror image for the two opponents, ie let’s say we were expected to lose to the US with an E of -0.25. They would have an E of +0.25. Our win would gain us 17.5 * (1 - (-0.25)) = 21.875 pts.  Similarly they would change by 17.5 * (-1 - (+0.25)) = -21.875 pts

When I first read your 35 point swing assumption I thought you were way off. I was thinking the expected result was always going to be between 0 and 1. However, I looked at the current rankings and found a team that had a single friendly in the window before it and looked at their change. El Salvador gained 22 points for beating Guatemala in a friendly (and Guatemala lost 22 points as well). So there really can be pretty significant swings.